UFC 316 Predictions: Best Bets & Fight Card Preview
*ding ding ding* It’s Round 2 for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley! This is a rematch made for hardcore UFC fans. There’s beef, a title at stake, and these two want to beat the ever-loving you-know-what out of each other.
Dvalishvili barreled through O’Malley the first time. Six takedowns. Three rounds of insane pressure. O’Malley couldn’t get going and looked out of his league when the fight became a grind. And now? It’s personal. He’s been rebuilding from the ground up with new training partners and drilling nonstop so that he doesn’t get stuck on his back like a turtle again.
Merab’s camp hasn’t been clean. He fractured his pinky toe in mid-May but kept sparring, barely missed any time, and told his team he’d fight anyway because he still has nine other toes. That’s where his mind is coming into Jersey.
As for the co-main event, we’ve got two totally different styles of fighters. Peña’s banking on her experience, and Kayla Harrison’s been ragdolling everyone who’s put in front of her. That includes her last UFC bout, where she tossed Chelsea Chandler across the Octagon and finished it in less than six minutes. Peña’s tough, but toughness doesn’t help when someone’s pinning your wrists and dropping elbows.
Top to bottom, this card is built on violence. Big names, aggressive styles, and a few matchups that feel like they were designed to end inside the first two rounds.
Below, we are gonna do a full breakdown of the card, our expert predictions, and what we think are the best bets if you’re putting some money on UFC 316!
Event Details
- Date: June 7, 2025
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
- Early Prelims: 6:00 pm ET (ESPN+/Disney+)
- Prelims: 8:00 pm ET (ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+)
- Main Card: 10:00 pm ET (ESPN+ PPV)
- See the full UFC 316 card
Main Event Breakdown: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2
This fight is about two things: endurance and punishment.
- Champion: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
- Challenger: Sean O’Malley (18-2)
- Odds: Dvalishvili -280 | O’Malley +240 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Main Storylines
Dvalishvili broke him with pace and pressure in their first fight. He racked up six takedowns—three of them in the opening four minutes—and kept O’Malley on his back foot from the opening exchange. By the middle of round two, O’Malley had landed only one clean strike. The rest of the fight? He was just trying to peel Merab off him.
O’Malley has been overhauling everything. He spent two weeks at Mighty Mouse’s gym drilling scramble chains, brought in Ryan Hall for defensive jiu-jitsu, and logged over 100 rounds of live wrestling with bigger training partners during his Arizona camp. He also got leaner in the hopes of having quicker lateral movement.
On May 13, during Merab’s training, he broke his pinky toe in a sparring round in Tbilisi. He skipped roadwork for six days but never stopped drilling or grappling. Since then, he’s added two pounds of muscle and claims his VO2 max is the best it’s ever been. His coaches say his mat returns have gotten faster and that he’s been overpowering bigger wrestlers in training.
If O’Malley gets walked down again and ends up with his back to the cage by the end of round one, he’s going to get mauled. But if he can stay upright and land something heavy before the midway point of round two, it’ll be a real fight.
Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
Peña may have the belt, but Harrison’s the heavy favorite for a reason.
- Champion: Julianna Peña (13-5)
- Challenger: Kayla Harrison (18-1)
- Odds: Harrison -590 | Peña +370 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Main Storylines
Harrison’s last fight lasted 5:47. She dragged Chandler to the mat twice, moved to mount, and finished with strikes. Her top game is built around pressure, balance, and control, and she gives no openings once she’s in position.
Peña’s been out for over a year. She cracked two ribs last July in a scramble with Raquel Pennington and tweaked her wrist during recovery. She’s tough, throws volume, and can scrap in the pocket, but she’s been overwhelmed by stronger grapplers before.
If Harrison gets inside early? Peña’s getting planted. Staying upright through the first five minutes is her best shot.
Main Card Matchups
All of the fights on the main card could end in the first 10 minutes. These fighters have zero interest in dragging it out any longer than that!
– Odds: Pyfer -300 | Gastelum +250
Gastelum’s dropped five of his last seven and hasn’t looked good since his fight with Adesanya. He’s slower at 185 and takes more damage than he used to. Pyfer’s not technical, but he doesn’t need to be; he doesn’t wait, and he’s stopped four of his last five inside the first round and hurts anyone who hesitates.
Four of his last five wins came inside the opening round. If Gastelum’s circling without throwing? He will not last long.
– Odds: Mix -110 | Bautista -110
Mix is a finisher—13 submission wins, most of them before the halfway point of round two. He ran through Bellator’s top bantamweights and enters the UFC with a solid grappling edge. Bautista’s the better striker, but his takedown defense hasn’t held up against strong chain-wrestlers. If Mix gets control early? It could end for Bautista.
Odds: Holland -160 | Luque +140
Luque absorbs a lot of shots but still keeps coming. His last clean win was over RDA, and he throws in volume, even if his defense has slipped a little. Holland’s longer, moves better, and works well from range, but he gets drawn into heavy exchanges. First clean shot could end this within five minutes, so we don’t expect it to go the distance.
Best Bets & Predictions
Where do we see the best betting value on UFC 316? Based on style matchups, recent form, and how each fighter usually wins or loses, here are the four we think have the most value!
Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision (-110)
He took O’Malley down six times in the last fight and held position for over seven minutes. Unless O’Malley lands something clean in the first round, this will go the same way—pressure, mat returns, control. Merab hasn’t finished anyone since 2018; he breaks down his opponents.
Kayla Harrison to Win Inside the Distance (-200)
Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and comes in off of two separate injuries. Harrison’s last fight ended with elbows from mount in round one. If Peña gets planted once, she’s not getting back up without any damage.
Patchy Mix to Win by Submission (+150)
Mix finishes on the ground lightning fast; he has 13 career subs, and most have been in the first two rounds. Bautista has a hard time against strong grapplers, and if Mix gets his back, he closes fast. This one is the clearest prop on the card.
Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)
Luque and Holland can crack, but they’ve both gone the distance in four of their last six. Holland tends to slow the tempo when he’s winning, and Luque’s chin has held up even in fights where he’s been tagged. Unless someone gets caught clean in round one, this will likely hit the over.
Closing Thoughts & Main Event Prediction
Let’s run it back with the numbers that make the most sense based on matchup dynamics, fight history, and what each fighter usually does under pressure:
- Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-110)
- Kayla Harrison Inside the Distance (-200)
- Patchy Mix by Submission (+150)
- Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)
The Fight We’re Most Excited to Watch
Bautista vs. Mix is the one to watch. Both open fast, and once one of them takes control, it won’t take long. If Mix gets position early, it turns into a grappling clinic. If Bautista keeps it upright, it’ll be an absolute banger.
X-Factors to Watch
A few wild cards could change how all of these fights play out:
- Merab’s broken toe kept him out of conditioning for close to a week. He trained through it, but cardio pacing might be different.
- O’Malley overhauled his training environment mid-camp. That can work, or it can backfire.
- Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and goes into the octagon after fractured ribs and a wrist strain; those aren’t small potatoes.
- Mix is fighting under UFC lights for the first time. Some fighters adapt, but some don’t.
Final Prediction: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2
If it stays upright for a decent amount of time, O’Malley has a chance. But it probably won’t. Merab closes space way too well and stays super glued to his opponents.
- Pick: Merab Dvalishvili
- Method: Unanimous Decision
- Why: The blueprint hasn’t changed. Merab keeps the pace high, chains takedowns, and wears his opponents out. Unless O’Malley clips him clean inside the first seven minutes, this will be one-sided again.
FYI: Odds can change closer to fight time, so check the latest on your sportsbook! You can check out our recs for the best ufc betting apps, and always gamble responsibly.
