Topuria vs. Oliveira Prediction & Betting Preview: UFC 317
It’s International Fight Week (oh la la, that sounds fancy for an event where you can get your nose kicked off your face), and the UFC’s biggest summer card will be in Las Vegas this weekend.
Headlining the event? Ilia Topuria makes the jump to lightweight in a bid for double champ status against former titleholder Charles Oliveira. And in the co-main, flyweight champ Alexandre Pantoja is defending his belt against Kai Kara-France.
What’s at stake in the main card? Only a vacant lightweight title that is there for the taking. Ilia Topuria wants to add a second belt to his collection, and Charles Oliveira is out to win back the title that he never lost in the cage—he lost it on the scale and was stripped of the lightweight title in May 2022 for missing weight by half a pound before UFC 274.
This fight could reset the lightweight hierarchy. A Topuria win gives the division a new face and possible superfight options. An Oliveira win? That would put him right back at the top in another chapter of one of the most insane career arcs in MMA.
Fight style-wise, Topuria comes at opponents with a lot of aggression; tight combos, forward pressure, and heavy hands. Oliveira’s advantage is on the ground. His submission game is one of the sickest in UFC history. He’s also gotten better as a striker and isn’t scared to brawl.
It’s a 12-fight slate that kicks off with prelims at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and it’ll be followed by the main card at 10:00 p.m. ET, which is streaming only on ESPN+ PPV.
Topuria’s been running his mouth, but talk is cheap, and it doesn’t mean much if Oliveira puts his fist through his face. We’ll see pretty quickly if Ilia belongs here, or if he’s just another notch on Oliveira’s belt.
Fight Details
- Matchup: Ilia Topuria (16-0-0) vs. Charles Oliveira (34-10-0)
- Event: UFC 317
- Date: Saturday, June 28
- How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
- Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- Start Time (Main Card): 10:00 pm ET (Prelims at 8:00 pm ET)
- Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)
- Title on the Line: Vacant UFC Lightweight Championship
- See the full UFC 317 card
Fighter Profiles
This fight pits a rising, unbeaten striker against the UFC’s most lethal finisher. Topuria’s been tearing through opponents with speed and precision, and Oliveira has years of experience on him and a record that’s full of stoppages against the best of the best.
Ilia Topuria
- A former featherweight champ with 12 career stoppages, including 8 knockouts
- Excellent balance and footwork; he stays composed under pressure and hits with scary accuracy
- Strong takedown defense due to his base and timing, plus enough BJJ to avoid any risky positions
- Moved up to 155 to eliminate the hard featherweight cut; he expects this will improve his late-round recovery
- Has openly predicted a first-round finish; he’s been training in high-heat conditions to prep for Vegas
Charles Oliveira
- UFC record-holder for most finishes (20) and submissions (16)
- Striking has gotten much better; he uses front kicks, straight punches, and knees to disrupt movement
- Pushes forward with volume to create tactical bedlam and force grappling exchanges
- Mental approach is grounded; he ignores media and trash talk and stays focused on positioning and control
- Known for pulling opponents into unhinged fights and turning scrambles into submission opportunities
Tactical Breakdown
This fight’s gonna be about who forces their style earliest. Topuria’s looking to walk Oliveira down and land something nasty. But if Charles steers it into those weird scrambles and exchanges, it changes the whole fight.
Topuria fights flat-footed but calculated—he doesn’t waste time feinting or moving laterally unless it sets up a real shot. He throws short combinations and commits with power. His defense? Tuck and fire. Oliveira isn’t a clean striker, but his timing is weird enough to land. He throws straight down the middle, cuts kicks under the guard, and creates just enough hesitation to keep you from blitzing him.
Oliveira doesn’t shoot much. He waits for a mistake—a bad sprawl, an off-balance clinch—then turns it into a trap. He only needs one position to spiral the fight. But if Topuria ends up on top, he doesn’t give you time to work. He stacks hips, pressures the chest, and makes you carry weight. The bottom game has to be airtight—or it stalls out.
Topuria fights like he’s got somewhere else to be and he’s 15 minutes late. He pressures hard, rips combos, and doesn’t waste time setting traps. But here’s the thing: if you don’t get Oliveira out of there in a hurry, he drags you into a long, drawn-out fight. And he’s dangerous when it slows down. The kind of fighter who lets you think you’re safe, then locks something up while you’re breathing wrong. We haven’t really seen Topuria survive late rounds under fire, and not with someone who finds openings while you’re trying to inhale.
Topuria’s talking like he’s already won before they get into the cage. He’s mouthing off like he already beat Oliveira’s and like the actual fight is some kind of a formality. That might work on guys who haven’t seen real violence. Oliveira has. He’s been dropped and nearly put out more times than Topuria’s had UFC fights, and every time, he comes back and finishes the guy who is standing over him. He doesn’t care about hype or headlines, and he’s not there to trade insults. If Topuria gets reckless trying to send a message, Oliveira won’t even hesitate. He’ll take the opening, literally squeeze the air out of him, and leave him staring up at the top of the octagon, wondering what the heck just happened.
Betting Outlook & Odds
Listen up, you violence-loving fans; here are the latest odds and the betting outlook for UFC 317 according to BetMGM!
- Topuria –500
- Oliveira +360
- Implied probability: Topuria (83.33%), Oliveira (21.74%)
Topuria’s a massive favorite here, and he’s priced like he’s wearing that belt. At -500, oddsmakers are treating this like it’s a mismatch; he’s expected to walk through Oliveira, quick and clean.
But +360 on Charles? That’s pretty steep for a guy with more UFC finishes than anyone on the roster. He’s been in worse spots and made better fighters tap. If you’re betting Oliveira, you’re not banking on three clean rounds; you’re betting he drags Topuria somewhere really dark and makes him pay for his cockiness.
This line says Topuria blows him out, but the tape says that he’d best not miss.
Betting Corner: Our Best Bets
Look below for what we think are the three best bets for Saturday’s main event!
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Topuria to win in Rd 1–2 | He presses forward immediately and throws with evil intent, so a fast start fits | 🔥🔥🔥 Medium–High |
Fight Under 2.5 Rounds | These two don’t point-fight; either one could end it quickly with one mistake | 🔥🔥 Medium |
Oliveira by Submission | If he gets Topuria off balance and to the mat? The choke is coming | 🔥🔥 Low–Medium |
Topuria vs. Oliveira: Who Has the Final Edge?
Topuria’s trying to get a second belt before he’s had to defend his first one. Oliveira’s going into it like someone who’s finished off better fighters before and can do it again; he doesn’t need to convince anyone of anything.
Stylistically, Topuria throws with intent, and Oliveira waits for you to screw up and then goes in for the kill.
The fight doesn’t have to go five rounds, and it doesn’t need a lot of overanalysis. Just pick the fighter who you think will end it first. It’s as simple as that in the UFC (ok, maybe not that simple).
Our Final Prediction: Ilia Topuria wins via 1st Round KO/TKO
Topuria starts out fast and hits harder than most lightweights that Oliveira’s faced before. If he cuts the cage and forces an early exchange? It won’t go long. We just can’t see Oliveira making it out of the first round.
Feeling confident about placing a bet on this match? Check out our list of the top UFC betting apps to find the most competitive lines and quick payouts on your winnings.
