Toluca vs. New York City FC Match Preview & Prediction (August 5, 2025)
New York City FC and Toluca will square off at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, and this one? It could decide the fate of the Leagues Cup.
Toluca is fresh off a comeback win over CF Montréal; they beat them 2–1 on Friday. NYCFC also started off strong and got a 2–0 win against Club León in their opener.
These two teams have never played each other before, and both are known for their distinct playing styles. Toluca is aggressive and attacks, and New York City FC is more defensive in its style.
It’s the final stage of group play, and both want to secure a spot in the knockout stage. Keep reading for a complete analysis, including recent form, the latest betting odds, players we are watching, injuries, team news, tactical preview, and our picks for the four best bets!
Match Details
- Competition: 2025 Leagues Cup – Group Stage
- Matchup: Toluca vs. New York City FC
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 51, at 7:30 pm ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, New York, NY
- How to Watch: Stream exclusively on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV
- Weather: Clear skies with temps around 78°F expected; perfect soccer weather!
Recent Form & Momentum
How have Toluca and NYCFC been playing? Here are both clubs’ stats for the last five matches in all competitions:
Toluca
- W 4–3 vs CF Montréal (Leagues Cup)
- W (PKs) vs Columbus Crew (Leagues Cup)
- W 2–0 vs Juárez
- D 1–1 vs Pumas UNAM
- W 3–1 vs Puebla
They haven’t lost in five, and are scoring at a high clip, but are vulnerable to goals.
New York City FC
- W 2–1 vs Club León (Leagues Cup)
- L 1–0 vs Tigres UANL
- D 1–1 vs CF Montréal
- L 2–0 vs Inter Miami
- W 4–2 vs Charlotte FC
NYCFC has been up and down with its form, but the win over León was impressive.
Betting Odds
What does the market say about this matchup? Here are the latest betting odds and lines according to DraftKings:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Toluca +105
- Draw +285
- NYCFC +195
BTTS
- Yes -210
- No +165
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (-200)
- Under 2.5 (+155)
Players to Watch
The players we’re watching? They’re the ones who could push the game one way or the other for their teams!
Toluca
- Paulinho (FWD): Paulinho poaches inside the six-yard box and times his runs really well between defenders. NYCFC’s center backs will have to stay tight or risk giving him easy tap-ins.
- Marcel Ruiz (CM): Ruiz is the anchor in Toluca’s midfield triangle. He’s the one linking quick one-touch passes into wide areas to spring counterattacks, and NYCFC will need to close him down early to break up their tempo.
NYCFC
- Alonso Martínez (FWD): Martínez likes to pull wide and then cut inside on his right. His movement between fullbacks and center backs created space vs León, and Toluca’s back line, which is less mobile, could get pulled apart if they don’t track him closely.
- Andrés Perea (CM): Perea is now NYCFC’s main outlet in the pivot, and he’ll be responsible for breaking up Ruiz’s rhythm and distributing quickly under a lot of pressure. If he gets overrun? NYC is at risk of losing control of the midfield altogether.
Injury Report & Squad News
Toluca comes onto the field at full strength. NYCFC is missing a few key pieces in its midfield and defense, and Toluca will try to exploit this.
Toluca
The full squad is available. Coach Hernán Cristante is expected to stick with the same core group that won their last two Leagues Cup games, so no rotation is likely because advancement is at stake.
NYCFC
- Out: Keaton Parks (central midfielder), Malachi Jones (wing depth), Thiago Martins (starting center back).
Parks and Martins are sidelined, so NYCFC’s backbone is weakened, particularly in buildup and defensive structure. Expect to see Perea take on more defensive midfield responsibility, and Justin Haak or Strahinja Tanasijević could fill in at the CB slot.
Tactical Preview
Time to talk tactics! As we said, both clubs play with different styles, so here’s what we are most likely to see in their forms.
Toluca lines up in an aggressive 4-2-3-1 or a fluid 4-3-3. They press high, circulate the ball quickly, and flood the flanks with overlapping fullbacks. When it works? They pin teams back and generate high shot volume. But the aggression they’re known for leaves them open behind the back line, and it’s usually when they’re forced to recover in transition.
NYCFC will likely go more conservative in a 4-2-3-1, sitting deeper and waiting for chances on the break. With Parks out, their midfield won’t carry the same control, so expect to see more direct play aimed at springing Martínez into space. Their best chances will probably come from quick counters or capitalizing on Toluca’s turnovers in the buildup.
Our Best Bets
Toluca’s attack is in sync, and NYCFC’s back line is still stretched a little thin. And that gives the edge to the Liga MX side in a game where chances should come at both ends. Look below for our top four best bets!
| Bet | Pick | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Match Result | Toluca +105 | Medium-High |
Total Goals | Over 2.5 -200 | Medium |
Both Teams to Score | Yes -210 | Medium |
Anytime Goalscorer | Paulinho +140 | Low-Medium |
To make the smartest wager, start by confirming the official lineups, checking for any late-breaking injury news, and comparing odds from top sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best possible value.
Betting Analysis
- Toluca ML: They have a stronger structure on and off the ball, so Toluca has the advantage tactically and physically. They’re better at dictating the pace and exploiting space when teams can’t put together clean sequences. NYCFC’s missing starters only widen that separation.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Both sides push the tempo in different ways, and neither is built to sit back for 90 minutes. NYCFC needs to be more proactive at home, and Toluca’s direct play usually opens up matches, so this one favors a scoreline with multiple finishes.
- BTTS – Yes: Even if NYCFC gives up long stretches of possession, they’ve shown they can make a comeback. Expect them to take more risks if they’re behind, and Toluca’s high back line leaves enough room for them to find the net.
- Paulinho Anytime Goal: Paulinho has been the most active option inside the box for Toluca and usually gets several looks per match. Against a thinned-out back line? One clean chance would be all it takes to cash this prop.
Why Toluca Should Exit Yankee Stadium with the Win
Final Score Prediction: Toluca 2 – 1 NYCFC
Toluca is coming in with a stronger run of results and a more cohesive attack. NYCFC has made progress lately, but comes into this match short on defensive depth, with key absences affecting the back line.
We expect it to be a fast-tempo game with chances for both sides, but Toluca’s structure and depth give them the advantage here. The straight moneyline has value, but combining it with BTTS or Over 2.5 in a same-game parlay offers? That has a better upside!
Best Bets Recap
- Toluca ML (+105): Medium-High Confidence
- Over 2.5 Goals (–200): Medium Confidence
- BTTS – Yes (–210): Medium Confidence
- Paulinho Anytime Goal (+140): Low-Medium Confidence
