Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Preview | Leagues Cup Opening Match (July 29, 2025)
The Leagues Cup opening match kicks off with Toluca vs. Columbus Crew, and it could be the most exciting game of the first round!
Toluca has been ripping through Liga MX defenses all summer long, and they’ll have home altitude and the fans behind them for the opener. Sure, Columbus is the defending Leagues Cup champs, but they’ve had some bumps on the road here, and Mexico has never been nice to visiting MLS clubs.
Both of these teams are made to score, so this one is setting up to be a back-and-forth goal-fest in group play. And the club that handles the tempo better? They could set the temperature for the rest of the round! And because both are favs to make it to the semifinals, that ups the ante.
Are you ready for some serious soccer? Keep reading for a complete preview, including both teams’ recent form, head-to-head stats, players to watch, the latest betting odds, and our four best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: Toluca vs. Columbus Crew
- Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, 7:00 pm ET
- Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio (MLS side home advantage)
- How to Watch: Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass in English; Spanish commentary via Fox Deportes or Univision platforms
- Weather Forecast: It’ll be in the mid-80s and humid; the heat and humidity could have an effect on late-game tempo
Recent Form & Team Context
Let’s talk recent form and what’s been going on with Toluca and the Columbus Crew!
Toluca (Liga MX)
- They won the Clausura 2025 title, beating América 2–0 on aggregate, and it was their first league title since 2010.
- Their attack has been really productive: 2+ goals in six of their last eight matches, and that includes a convincing win over Tigres.
- But there are defensive lapses; Toluca only has one clean sheet in their last seven across the league and playoffs.
- Rotated starters in their final match before the Leagues Cup, so they’re clearly prioritizing this opener.
Columbus Crew (MLS)
- As the defending Leagues Cup champions, Columbus is also pushing toward playoff positioning in the Eastern Conference.
- They held off until last weekend before losing their first home game; prior to that, they’d been unbeaten in five straight at Lower.com Field prior (4 wins, 1 draw).
- Coming into this tournament trending upward offensively, scored 13 goals in their previous five matches, and recent signee Wessam Abou Ali has made a solid impact.
- Defensively, it’s been here and there; they’ve conceded in eight of their last nine matches, giving up two or more goals in three of those five most recent outings.
Head-to-Head Trends
How do these clubs stack up head-to-head?
Toluca and Columbus Crew have faced each other only twice competitively before, in the 2010 Concacaf Champions Cup, which ended in a 2–2 draw in the first leg, and Toluca won 3–2 in the second leg to take the tie.
In both of the matches:
- Both teams scored
- Over 2.5 goals hit
- Late goals were decisive, changing the momentum and the result
Across both games, neither side ruled the midfield; the action flowed between end‑to‑end chances and wasn’t a controlled build-up by one team.
Main Players to Watch
We’ll be watching all of the players on the pitch, but there are three names from each team that we’ll be laser-focused on:
Toluca
- Alexis Vega: Toluca’s assist king (8 in Clausura); Vega nailed a hat trick and assisted in a 5–2 win over Necaxa. He’s a threat from open play and in dead-ball situations.
- Paulinho: Clausura’s top scorer (12 goals), scored in the final, and is vital to Toluca’s attack; he brings size and composure inside the box.
- Jesús Gallardo: He’s the newly awarded Liga MX Best Full-Back; Gallardo has both forward thrust from left wing-back, with experience at the back.
Columbus Crew
- Diego Rossi: He’s back to his goal-making ways and linking up really well as part of the Crew’s front line; he’s on a tear as the club’s creative focal point.
- Darlington Nagbe: This is the Crew’s midfield metronome; when Nagbe controls possession and tempo, Columbus moves super well.
- Wessam Abou Ali: He is Columbus’s new Designated Player from Al Ahly, and gives the Crew a physical edge and another goal threat; Ali just starred with a Club World Cup hat trick.
Betting Odds & Market Insights
If you’re thinking about betting on the Leagues Cup opener, here are the latest odds and lines from DraftKings:
| Odds | Implied Probability | Notes |
|---|---|---|
Columbus Crew +140 | ~41.7% | Slight home edge, but they aren’t a clear favorite. |
Draw +265 | ~27.4% | A draw remains a real possibility in a wide-open group-stage opener. |
Toluca +155 | ~39.2% | This is more dangerous than the price suggests, so there is an attacking upside. |
Over 2.5 -190 | ~65.5% | Oddsmakers strongly expect a high-scoring affair, with both teams attacking. |
Under 2.5 +150 | ~40.0% | The under is a contrarian play given both sides’ recent scoring form. |
BTTS – Yes (-220) | ~68.8% | Very likely outcome—both teams consistently score and concede. |
BTTS – No (+170) | ~37.0% | Considered unlikely, especially given defensive vulnerabilities. |
Sportsbooks are pricing this as an open matchup; the market odds show goals coming from both clubs.
Stay sharp—odds move as the match draws near, and checking the latest lines before betting could be the key to a smarter wager.
Preview Summary: What to Expect
This matchup is looking like a lot of open play with very little midfield congestion. Columbus will try to stretch the field early through Rossi’s movement and Nagbe’s short-passing game; they’ll want to keep Toluca pinned deeper than they want to be. And Toluca will clap back via quick switches and wing overloads through Vega’s service and Gallardo’s late runs.
Second-half fatigue could definitely be a factor; it’s gonna be hot and humid, and both clubs want to dictate the pace. But whoever controls the wide spaces as energy drops could come out on top.
Our Best Bets
It’s about that time! Look below for our best bets; we’ve got three solid picks and a so-so one that could be worth a look.
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 2.5 Goals (–190) | Both teams are averaging over two goals per match, and past meetings have all gone high. | 8.5/10 |
BTTS – Yes (–220) | Scored in 8 of their last 9 combined matches; clean sheets are unlikely on either side. | 8/10 |
Draw No Bet | Toluca (-110) | Even with Columbus playing at home, Toluca has been better in the buildup and more cohesive in the final third. | 6.5/10 |
Alexis Vega Anytime Assist (+400) | Vega takes corners and free kicks, and leads the team in chances created; this number could be worth a shot. | 5.5/10 |
In-Game Storylines
- Columbus’ opening tempo: They usually press early at home. If Toluca holds firm without overcommitting, they’ll have the space to exploit later in the game.
- Wing exposure: The Crew’s fullbacks push up, and that leaves pockets in behind. Toluca’s wide players (Vega and Gallardo) can turn that flaw into scoring chances.
- Second-half edge: Toluca’s attack doesn’t drop off with changes. If the game’s still even after 70? They’ve got more than enough match-winners waiting in the wings and ready to come on.
Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Final Take
Don’t expect to watch a match that’s decided by control; it’ll be won by whoever can handle pressure better in those broken phases of play.
Columbus relies on structure and spacing to build their attacks, but they’ve been exposed when play gets iffy. Toluca’s strength lies in exploiting those gaps with direct runs and quick decisions in the final third. You’re not betting on control with this game; you’re betting on execution in tense moments. That’s why the goal markets, and not the winner, are where the real value is!
Best Bets Recap
- Over 2.5 Goals (8.5/10)
- BTTS – Yes (8/10)
- Toluca DNB (+160) (6.5/10 value play)
Final Score Prediction: Columbus Crew 2 – 2 Toluca
Columbus does have the home advantage, but don’t count Toluca out; their shape and counterattack are not to be trifled with!
The over feels like the most stable route, as does the BTTS if the match stays loose defensively.
And if you’re ready to bet on the Leagues Cup opener or any other upcoming matches, make sure you’re using a trusted sportsbook that gives you great odds and fast payouts. Check out our list of the best sports betting sites to compare options.
