Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1 Preview and Prediction (May 20, 2025)
The Western Conference Finals have arrived! Did we expect to see this matchup back in October? Nope, but here we are.
The top-seeded Thunder took the long way around with a nasty seven-gamer against Denver, and Minnesota beat two heavyweights in five games apiece. In Game 1, one of the NBA’s most efficient defenses is going up against the most fearless scorers in the postseason.
The underdogs have crashed the NBA Finals for the first time in franchise history. And the first game will give us a pretty good read on who’s up for it!
Game Details
- Matchup: Minnesota Timberwolves (#6) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (#1)
- Series Status: –
- Date & Time: Tuesday, May 20, at 8:30 pm ET
- Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- Broadcast: ESPN and ESPN2
Prediction Breakdown
37.2%
62.8%
According to GamblingSite.com
Why This Game Matters
Minnesota and OKC are playing for a Finals berth, but they’re also building their legacies, and the series may signal the league’s next powerhouse. The Thunder had a team rebuild that worked. And the Timberwolves want their validation after being everyone’s preseason “sleeper” for so long.
- Western Conference Finals Game 1 sets the stage for everything that comes after.
- Neither franchise has ever made the NBA Finals, and one of them’s about to get closer than they ever have before.
- Paths couldn’t be more different: OKC is the No. 1 seed, and Minnesota is sixth.
- SGA vs. Edwards is the marquee, but this thing goes way deeper than star player vs. star player
- Historically, the winner of Game 1 has taken the series in 71% of conference final matchups.
- How this one starts might matter more than usual, especially with two of the youngest cores at the center.
Team Comparisons
Here is what each team is bringing to the court before the ball goes up!
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder were methodical all season long. They built on ball movement, defensive switchability, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being an absolute savage. After beating Memphis, they were tested by Denver but made it out in the end.
- Regular Season Record: 68-14
- Playoff Path: Swept the Grizzlies (4-0), survived the Nuggets (4-3)
Main Players
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Still one of the best scorers in the league—32.7 PPG with eerily surgical shot selection.
- Jalen Williams: Needs to snap out of a rough semifinal stretch if OKC wants to stay out in front.
- Chet Holmgren: Plays like a vet, spaces the floor, and alters everything in the paint.
Strengths
- Rotates defenders like hockey lines.
- Doesn’t panic in close games.
- One of the best home-court advantages that’s left in the playoffs.
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have been decimating game plans with defense and physicality. Their frontcourt is mean, their bench steps up, and Anthony Edwards is quickly making the “he’s next” conversation a thing of the past.
- Regular Season Record: 49-33
- Playoff Path: Took out the Lakers (4-1), then made the Warriors look like they weren’t the Warriors (4-1)
Main Players
- Anthony Edwards: Averaging 26.3/7.1/5.4 and doesn’t shy away from anything—he wants that weight
- Julius Randle: He’s become the muscle behind Minnesota’s scoring, putting up 23.8 PPG and 8.2 RPG
- Rudy Gobert: Still anchoring the paint, still pulling boards, still frustrating bigs
Strengths
- Wins the physical battle night after night
- Controls the glass
- Bench doesn’t lose momentum
Key Matchups
- SGA vs. Anthony Edwards: The NBA’s smoothest iso scorer vs. one of the league’s most explosive two-way guards. Whoever controls the pace between them will probably control the series.
- Frontcourt Clash: Gobert and Randle bring the muscle. Holmgren brings a combo of size and finesse. It’ll be tough and physically grueling.
- Bench Minutes That Matter: Donte DiVincenzo and Naz Reid have been massive gets for the Wolves. Hartenstein and Caruso have grit and glue that the OKC needs. A big second-quarter swing from a bench unit could be the deciding factor in a game or two.
Betting Odds & Insights
Where do the odds sit before the ball goes up? Here’s what the oddsmakers at Caesars Sportsbook say:
- Spread: Thunder -7.5
- Total Points (O/U): 215.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -300 | Timberwolves +245
Trends
- The Thunder have gone 4-1 in their last five and are unbeaten at home in the playoffs.
- Minnesota has covered in seven of their last 10, and every road game has been close.
- The total has gone over in three of OKC’s last five, and that means the scores could go up.
Best Bets
There are three angles that we are watching in Game 1:
- Thunder -7.5 (-110) – OKC’s defense travels well, but it’s at its best at home. They’ve been closing out games strong and should be able to cover late.
- Over 215.5 Points (-110) – Between Minnesota’s willingness to run and OKC’s efficient scoring, this number isn’t scary. Both teams have enough shot creation to push this total over.
- Anthony Edwards Over 6.5 Rebounds (+116) – Edwards is not only scoring, he’s rebounding like it’s his job (it is). He’s cleared this number in 7 of his last 10.
Game 1 Takeaways & Our Prediction
Who wants it more? The Thunder have been one of the most composed teams in the NBA all season, and that was obvious in how they handled Denver. They know who they are. The Wolves have been tougher than anyone expected and are on a serious high after getting back-to-back gentleman’s sweeps.
But OKC has the home advantage, more lineup flexibility, and arguably the best player in the series.
- Momentum: Thunder are on a run after outlasting the reigning champs.
- Experience (and rest): OKC had to fight hard, but they didn’t burn out.
- Wildcard: Edwards is the guy who could blow the whole thing up
- Best bet: Thunder cover, and this one will be fast-paced: the first to 110 might take it.
Final Prediction
Oklahoma City Thunder 112 – Minnesota Timberwolves 103
Minnesota won’t be easy to beat by any means, but we think that OKC’s balance, defensive consistency, and the home crowd will be enough to position them to pull away in the fourth!
FYI: The stats and betting odds are current but could change closer to tip-off. As always, gamble responsibly!
