Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4 Prediction & Preview (June 13, 2025)
The Pacers are up 2-1 in the NBA Finals after beating OKC in Game 3 at home. The final score? 116-107. Not a blowout, but a win is a win, and now they’re in the lead.
The Thunder had a 5 point lead going into the fourth period, but Indiana pulled away when their offense kicked into high gear. Haliburton made a 3-pointer, which put the Pacers up 101-98. Turner got a layup, Toppin made a sick putback dunk over OKC’s Dort, and the Thunder never recovered.
Next up? Game 4 on the Pacers’ home court in Indy. Will they even it up to 2-2? Or will the Pacers take it at home and make it 3-1? Sure hope neither team is superstitious—the matchup is on Friday the 13th.
Keep reading to find out what we think, stats, betting odds, and, of course, our best bets for the game!
Game Details
- Matchup: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Indiana Pacers
- Series Status: Indiana Leads 2-1
- Date & Time: Friday, June 13, at 8:30 pm ET
- Location: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- Broadcast: ABC and streaming on ESPN App, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV, Sling TV
Prediction Breakdown
55.1%
44.9%
According to GamblingSite.com
Series Snapshot
Here’s how it’s gone down so far:
- The Pacers lead the series 2–1 after a 116–107 win in Game 3 at home.
- The Thunder were up by 5 going into the fourth, but Indiana came back with an insane run led by Haliburton and Mathurin.
- Bennedict Mathurin dropped 27 off the bench and gave Indiana a huge boost when the game shifted.
- OKC turned it over 17 times and shot 35% in the fourth; they couldn’t keep up once Indiana pulled ahead.
- Game 4 stays in Indy, and the pressure’s on the Thunder to avoid going down 3–1.
Main Matchups to Watch
Indiana got the lead in Game 3 by throwing SGA totally off track and Haliburton being on point. The following are the two spots that everyone will be watching:
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Indiana’s pressure: SGA is putting up close to 36 points per game in the Finals, but the Pacers started flashing backcourt traps late in Game 3, and it worked. Shawn Marion even called for Indiana to double him earlier and more often. Expect more bodies thrown at him and quicker help rotations to force the ball out of his hands.
- Tyrese Haliburton’s control vs. OKC’s perimeter defense: Haliburton hit the game-winner in Game 1, turned the ball over five times in Game 2, and came back looking good in Game 3. If Dort and Wallace speed him up again? Indiana’s offense could get stuck.
Supporting Cast
- Chet Holmgren (Thunder): His scoring hasn’t dropped off, but the rebounding numbers sure have. He’s hit the under on his boards prop in all three Finals games so far. If OKC’s bigs don’t control the glass, Indiana’s second-chance looks will be a problem.
- Jalen Williams (Thunder): Williams has been steady; 26 points in Game 3 and is averaging over 20 in the series. He’s looked more comfortable attacking early in the clock and could be the difference if Indiana keeps blitzing SGA.
- Bennedict Mathurin (Pacers): Came off the bench and dropped 27 in Game 3. He’s been Indiana’s best scoring option outside the starters and gives them a serious advantage if OKC’s second unit can’t match his pace.
Betting Odds & Trends
If you’re gonna bet on Game 4, then you should know what’s what! Here are the latest odds and lines via DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
OKC Thunder | -6 (-110) | -218 | Over 225.5 (-111) |
IND Pacers | +6 (-110) | +180 | Under 225.5 (-108) |
ATS Records
- Thunder: 54–26–2 straight up and against the spread (ATS)
- Pacers: 37–43–2 SU/ATS
Scoring Momentum
- OKC Over the total ~59% of home games
- League average sits ~53% on totals; OKC’s higher number signals trust in their offense
Best Bets for Game 4
And here are the two best that we think look good for Game 4:
- Thunder -6 Spread: OKC is 3–1 ATS following a playoff loss and has covered 7 of its last 10 when favored by 5 or more. If they cut down on turnovers and stay aggressive early, they’re built to cover this number.
- Over 225.5 Total Points: All three games have pushed near this line or gone over. Both teams score in volume, and unless the pace slows way down late?! This should hit again!
Trends
- The Over has hit in 11 of Indiana’s last 14 games: They shoot early, push the pace, and rarely make use of the full shot clock.
- Pacers play at the league’s fastest pace: OKC ranks top 10 in points off fast breaks, so there’s constant movement and short possessions on both ends.
- Heavy three-point volume on both sides: Indiana’s bench has been launching from outside, and the Thunder rely on spacing to create quick scoring runs. This keeps totals volatile if shooters get hot.
Prop Bets
Want some side action? We like these two props:
Isaiah Hartenstein – Under 7.5 Rebounds
- Logged only 19 minutes in Game 3 and pulled down 4 boards.
- OKC’s smaller lineups have limited his impact around the rim.
- Indiana’s spacing forces the bigs to defend away from the glass.
Tyrese Haliburton – Over 2.5 Turnovers
- Gave it away 5 times in Game 2 and 4 more in Game 3.
- With Dort and Caruso on him and Indiana leaning heavily on his playmaking, there’s volume risk on every possession.
- Averaging 3.4 turnovers per game during the postseason.
Thunder vs. Pacers Game 4 Prediction: Where the Value Lies
Look, we were off on Game 3, we know that and own it. We are only human! We thought OKC would carry over what worked in Game 2, but Indiana’s bench lit up out of nowhere. Mathurin dropped 27, the Pacers hit almost half of their shots from deep, and they dictated the pace from the minute the game started.
But Game 4? It isn’t the same setup.
The Thunder have bounced back from losses all year without slipping into back-to-back trouble. We think we’ll see shorter rotations, traps on Haliburton before he can get into motion, and way more discipline to stop Indiana’s early offense.
OKC still has the stronger shot creators and more perimeter coverage; they just didn’t finish it last time.
Final Score Prediction: Thunder 117, Pacers 108
Thunder cover the –6, and the Over stays in play! They tie it up 2-2 before going back to OKC.
