Texas vs. Ohio State Football Preview & Prediction (August 30, 2025)
The Texas Longhorns will begin their Big Ten era with the clash against the Ohio State Buckeyes. But Ohio State has an elite defense that might keep the Texas Longhorns at bay during their trip to the Horseshoe. For Ohio State, it is an opportunity to bounce back from 2024, especially now that the team has fielded a new QB.
This game is a national spotlight showdown as both teams kick off the season in primetime. The teams also have much at stake, as the game is a tone-setter, not just as a non-conference game, but also from the jump.
We will break down everything you need to know to bet this matchup right.
Game Overview
- Matchup: Texas Longhorns (0-0) @ Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0)
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 30, at 7:30 PM ET
- Venue: Ohio Stadium—”The Horseshoe,” Columbus, OH
- How to Watch: ABC Prime Time Game of the Week
Latest Betting Odds
The Texas Longhorns and the Ohio State Buckeyes both have playoff aspirations. And with expectations of a heavy clash, FanDuel has the following odds as of 8/29/2025:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | -1.5 (-105) | -114 | Over 46.5 (-110) |
Ohio State | +1.5 (-115) | -105 | Under 46.5 (-110) |
We have a loaded roster from the Texas Longhorns. But the Ohio State Buckeyes will hope to overcome their CFP heartbreak and reestablish their home dominance.
Team Form & Key Storylines
Texas Longhorns
- The team is among the Big 12 Champions, with a 12-2 record in 2024. However, the team lost in the CFP semifinal to Washington.
- We can expect a robust offense from the Longhorns, especially with Kelvin Banks Jr. as the anchor. His experience, coupled with QB Quinn Ewers, is something the Buckeyes will have to watch out for.
- The Texas Longhorns may have lost Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell, but they have Johntay Cook, who is ready to step up.
- We will likely get a robust defense as Pete Kwiatkowski’s lineup returns, having finished top 15 in rush defense in 2024.
However, doubts remain high about whether Texas can physically handle the Big Ten in the first year of conference play. And we are skeptical about Ewers’s performance against one of the top defenses in the country.
Ohio State Buckeyes
- With an 11-2 2024 record and two losses to Michigan and Oregon, the Buckeyes do have much to do in this game.
- The team will get to benefit from Will Howard, who brings dual-threat ability and experience.
- And let’s not forget that the team has one of the best, if not the best, defenses nationwide, with 9 returning starters and JT Tuimoloau and Denzel Burke in the lead.
- Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka may be gone, but the team will get to see 5-star freshmen and Julian Fleming stepping up.
The Buckeyes’ new offense looks loaded, but Texas has a fast and physical front that may disrupt their rhythm. Texas may also give Howard a hard time with disguised pressures and shifting coverages.
Match Breakdown: Offense vs. Defense
Texas Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
The Texas team will likely benefit from Quinn Ewers’ improved deep-ball accuracy. And the elite offensive line opens running lanes for CJ Baxter while offering protection.
On the defensive side, the Buckeyes were impressive last season, ranking #2 in total defense. You can also consider the DL, which features future 1st-rounders.
Texas can break through Ohio’s defense if it gives Ewers time and avoids 3rd-and-longs. But that will be a long call against a robust Ohio defense.
Ohio State Offense vs. Texas Defense
Ohio will lean on a power run game with Henderson and Pryor. And we also have the home crowd energy that may help Howard settle in early to lean on check-downs and play-action.
The Texas team, on the other hand, has a deep and disruptive DL, which leverages trenches. LB Jaylan Ford is also a tackling machine that may keep Howard in check.
Betting Trends & Game Angles
- Texas is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog.
- Ohio State is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 non-conference games.
- Texas has covered in 3 straight openers under Steve Sarkisian.
- The Under has hit in 4 of the last 5 Buckeyes’ season openers.
- Texas is 0-2 in its last two road games against Top 10 opponents.
Public Angle:
Early money has come in on Texas, moving the line from +6.5 to +1.5. Sharps appear to favor the Longhorns to keep this one tight.
Key Player Matchups
| Player Matchup | Why It Matters |
|---|---|
Quinn Ewers (Texas QB) vs. Denzel Burke (OSU CB) | Elite passer vs. lockdown corner. If Burke neutralizes the deep threat, Texas’ offense shrinks. |
Kelvin Banks Jr. (Texas OT) vs. JT Tuimoloau (OSU EDGE) | Top-10 NFL draft prospects on both sides. Pass protection here decides Ewers’ comfort. |
CJ Baxter (Texas RB) vs. Tommy Eichenberg (OSU LB) | Who controls the line of scrimmage? This matchup is the physical tone-setter. |
Will Howard (OSU QB) vs. Texas Safeties | First major test for Howard. Deep shells and disguised blitzes will try to force mistakes. |
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
1. Texa -1.5 (-105)
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Why We Like It
- Quinn Ewers has the better experience and command over Will Howard. He has also seen success in high-pressure games.
- The Texas offensive line is among the best nationwide. It won’t take them much to neutralize Ohio’s pass rush.
- While Ohio State has big plays, the Texas defense has the speed to limit them.
- The Texas team is motivated to make it big on their Big Ten debut.
Situational Value:
- Ohio State’s adjustment to the new offensive personnel may work against them.
- A 4.5-point spread offers a key cushion if the game is decided by an FG (which our prediction calls for).
- If the line moves to +5.5 or +6 closer to kickoff, the value increases.
2. Under 46.5 (-110)
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Why We Like It:
- Both teams have elite defenses, Ohio State with the #2 ranking and Texas with discipline and a battle-tested front seven.
- We expect conservative play from both teams, as they have early-season timing issues
- Coaches typically go simple in the first games, relying more on run games and ball control
- Both teams will try to establish the run and avoid turnovers.
Stat Angle:
- The Under is 4-1 in Ohio State’s last 5 openers.
- Texas has gone under in 5 of its last 7 non-conference matchups.
3. Texas 1H -1.5 (-142)
Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5)
Why We Like It:
- Texas has the better offensive continuity and will likely be the sharper team early.
- Will Howard will likely have a hard time settling against an aggressive defense from Texas.
- Ohio State may have the home crowd, but that energy could rattle them and lead them to early mistakes. Or they may adopt conservative play-calling.
Situational Edge:
- Texas led at the half in 11 of 14 games last year, including against Alabama and Oklahoma.
- First halves tend to be tighter in heavyweight matchups—low scoring favors underdogs.
Before betting on Texas vs. Ohio State, check the latest odds and lines—things can shift fast before kickoff. Use one of our top-rated sports betting sites for the best value.
Can Texas Shake the Big Ten in Their First Game?
Final Score Prediction: Ohio State 27, Texas 24
You can expect a one-score finish with Texas +4.5 as our top play. Under 54.5 has a strong value as well, given both defenses and the opening week pace.
Ewers’ performance under pressure will be the deciding factor in the game. And we also expect a playoff-level clash from start to finish.
🎯 Best Bets Recap:
- Texas -1.5
- Under 46.5
- 1H Texas -1.5
