Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors Prediction (November 4, 2025)
The Phoenix Suns hope to hand the rival Golden State Warriors a loss on Tuesday night, even though DraftKings has them slated as 10.5-point road underdogs.
Things haven’t gone as planned for the Suns, who unloaded star talent in Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal in the offseason and are just 3-4 through seven games. They’ll be tasked with beating a pretty hefty spread – and chasing their first road victory of the year – in a hostile environment against what figures to be a legit title threat.
Golden State hasn’t been perfect, either, as Stephen Curry and the Dubs are just 4-3. A brutal opening schedule that has so far included four road games is largely to blame, but they’ll hope to stay perfect on their home floor.
Not sure who to take thanks to the rivalry and big spread? Join me as I look at the latest odds and break down key matchups to uncover the best bets for this Suns vs. Warriors battle.
Game Details
- Matchup: Phoenix Suns (3-4) vs. Golden State Warriors (4-3)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, November 4, at 9:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Chase Center in San Francisco, CA
- How to Watch: Arizona’s Family 3TV, NBA League Pass, NBC Sports Bay Area and Suns Live
Early Season Performance & Trends
Phoenix Suns
The new-look Suns don’t even know how good they can be yet, as shooting guard Jalen Green – who the team acquired in a trade with the Houston Rockets – has yet to make his team debut.
Even so, Phoenix is staying afloat in the competitive Pacific Division, off to a 3-4 start and claiming wins in their last two games to snap a four-game skid. Through it all, the team has relied on star guard Devin Booker’s scoring (30 points per game), while it’s gotten surprise contributions out of Grayson Allen (16.4 ppg) and Dillon Brooks (19.3 ppg).
That trio has helped the Suns to a solid 118.3 points per game (12th) and the NBA’s very best three-point attack.
While Phoenix can still run with the best of them on offense, they leave a lot to be desired on the defensive end. The Suns are giving up over 120 points per game (23rd) and are predictably bad at defending the paint (20th).
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors have looked like a title contender ever since landing star swingman Jimmy Butler in a trade with the Miami Heat last year. The team parlayed that move into a playoff run, but an untimely injury to Steph Curry derailed their championship hopes.
Chef Curry and co. are back at it in the early going this year, but a tough schedule has once again delayed the results fans and bettors anticipated. Golden State still has a winning record, however, and are being led by the usual suspects in Curry (26.5 ppg) and Butler (21.4 ppg).
That fearsome duo has guided the Dubs to 117.6 points per game (14th), with their bread and butter being sharing the wealth (9th in assists) and connecting from long range (4th most made threes per game).
Of course, Golden State continues to make their mark on the defensive end, as they enter this matchup with the league’s 11th best scoring defense. That unit also happens to rank 10th in defensive efficiency, while they are defending the deep ball as well as anyone (7th).
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Suns and Warriors have duked it out quite a bit throughout history. The two play in the Pacific Division and run into each other a good amount, having already gone head-to-head for 267 regular-season meetings.
Despite Golden State’s numerous title runs, they trail the regular season series (152-112), and they haven’t even had the upper hand of late. Phoenix has been the aggressor, winning five of the last eight meetings.
Key Matchup Breakdown
Phoenix is putting points up without a key contributor in Jalen Green, but it will be a lot harder to keep that success rolling on the road against a stingy Warriors defense.
The guard play and outside shooting for the Suns has been on point, but they rank 25th in the league in points scored in the paint. Phoenix surprisingly doesn’t push the pace that much (21st) for a team that hoists the fourth most threes per game.
Devin Booker is the face of the offense, but the Suns would be wise to work big man Mark Williams into their plans a bit more. Establishing that inside-outside attack against this Warriors defense may not be an easy task, however.
The Suns thrive on volume from long range and that’s good for the NBA’s 11th best perimeter shooting offense. It just might not be a great bet to expect it to hold up in this particular matchup.
The Dubs have a nice duo in Curry and Butler, who account for a large chunk of their scoring. They do have a key third scorer in Jonathan Kuminga, and whether or not he shows up could be the x-factor for them on offense in this tilt.
Luckily, the Warriors play team basketball, which has them grading out highly in assists per game (9th) and assists per made shot (3rd). Their tendency to find the open man and work the ball gets them high marks in effective field goal percentage (13th), while they get plenty of open looks from deep (6th in attempted threes per game) and convert at a high rate.
Stephen Curry’s still blistering free throw rate leads the 5th best free throw shooting team in The Association, which is another feather in the cap of a balanced and efficient offensive vehicle.
Golden State will also push the pace and exploit defenses on the fly, ranking 13th in fastbreak points per game. They do lack size or imposing offense down low, of course, as they rank just 22nd in scoring inside the paint.
As noted, the Warriors play pretty fast (9th in pace) and when you share the rock and look for the open man, it leads to easy buckets in transition – or wide open threes that you knock down.
If the game goes fast, it benefits the Warriors. Phoenix is equipped to hang with the Dubs in that case, but they do not have the defensive aptitude to actually slow the Warriors down.
Golden State can play either way, as they have strong defensive bite, ranking 11th in scoring and 7th against the three ball – the latter in which is a direct combatant to what the Suns do best.
- Chef Curry: Nobody can actually stop Steph Curry. He’s either hot or he’s not. I can tell you that Dillon Brooks is not playing in this game, leaving the Suns without a true isolation defender that can keep Curry in check. Given Phoenix’s current defensive limitations, that could mean an explosion for the aging star.
- Suns outside shooting vs. Warriors perimeter D: Golden State plays fast and yet they still close out and limit outside shooting success. Phoenix could offset that with their quality array of shooters, but the matchup stinks on paper.
- Warriors’ fastbreak offense vs. Phoenix’s transition defense: Not having Dillon Brooks hurts the Suns quite a bit, as they rank 26th in fastbreak points allowed per game. It stands to reason that a good transition team like Golden State will exploit the mismatch by pushing the pace even more on Tuesday.
The home/away splits are stark. Phoenix is 0-3 away from home so far, and the Dubs haven’t lost on their home court yet. This is especially big for the Warriors, seeing as they’ve endured a brutal schedule with a ton of road contests.
Injuries are always going to be at the forefront of the “intagibles” conversation, and the continued absence of both Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks is massive for the Dubs. Not having Brooks hurts Phoenix’s defense, while Green is another scorer that would love to turn to, but can’t.
It’d be a little shocking if the Warriors opted to rest any of their aging stars. Curry, Butler, Draymond Green, and Al Horford are all pretty long in the tooth. They all are likely to play, but any of them resting could impact the odds and outcome.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Here are the latest Suns vs. Warriors odds (via DraftKings) for Tuesday:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Suns | +10.5 (-110) | +350 | Over 231.5 (-112) |
Warriors | -10.5 (-110) | -455 | Under 231.5 (-108) |
What the Market Suggests
There is an absurd amount of confidence in the Warriors at home. Their thick -500 moneyline indicates they are extremely likely to win, which makes sense since they tend to fare well on their home floor, and by all accounts, they are the more reliable team.
The 10.5-point spread is pretty outrageous, but it suggests the Suns are a far inferior team as currently constructed. The 231.5 total leans into both teams’ offensive ceilings and Golden State’s desire to push the pace.
From a Bettor’s Lens
My initial reaction is that the Warriors are correctly pegged as the favorites at home, but both the ML and spread are a bit out of control. There is instant value in targeting Phoenix on the M,L and the Suns beating the spread stands out as an even better bet.
Of all the possible wagers, though, betting on the Over stands out the most. This is a very palatable game total considering both offenses have been productive and Phoenix’s defense has been rather suspect.
Situational Considerations
While the early-season schedule has been a bit cruel to the Warriors, they are playing this game on three days’ rest, and they’ll be at home. Phoenix, meanwhile, is only on two days of rest and will be on the road, where they’ve yet to get a win in 2025.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 231.5 | The Suns and Warriors both rank inside the top 14 in scoring, and they both can connect from long range with the best of them. Golden State’s defense lowers Phoenix’s upside, but their pace of play should allow for this game to hit the Over. | 7/10 |
Suns ATS +10.5 (-110) | This is a pretty rich spread. Phoenix lacks defensive aptitude, and the Dubs are good at home, but wonky things happen in the NBA. At the end of the day, Devin Booker could easily keep the Suns in this, especially when you consider how the Dubs are a middling 4-3 ATS this year. | 7/10 |
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors lines are shifting fast — track live odds and compare spreads before tip-off at our best sports betting sites to lock in the best value.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Golden State Warriors 121, Phoenix Suns 114
This predicted score has the Suns coming in four points under their season average, with an efficient Warriors team scoring one more point than Phoenix typically allows. The Dubs definitely get a huge boost at home in this spot, and the matchup favors the Warriors across the board.
I don’t see a realistic path to a Suns upset, but 10.5 points is pretty steep. Let’s not forget that Booker has been cooking as a scorer all year, and Phoenix just beat the Spurs in their last game. The Warriors will win, but their ML is not something we should be betting on.
Instead, hammer the Over and bet on the Suns to keep it (somewhat) interesting.
