Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Picks & Prediction (August 8, 2025)
The Seattle Storm heads to the Michelob ULTRA Arena to take on the Las Vegas Aces for a Friday night WNBA showdown!
How’s it looking? Well, Seattle’s rotation is in flux with new addition Brittney Sykes, as she and Tiffany Mitchell are listed as questionable to play, and that’s not great when you’re playing a Vegas squad that just beat the Golden State Valkyries.
The Aces have begun to stabilize their defense in zone looks with superstar A’ja Wilson anchoring the interior. If the Storm can’t find scoring outside of Loyd and Diggins-Smith? Uh-oh.
We are gonna break down everything you need to know about this one. We’ve got the latest betting odds, player rosters, injuries, and our picks for the three best bets and why they make sense!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Seattle Storm (16–14) at Las Vegas Aces (16–14)
- Game Details: Thursday, August 8 at 10 pm ET at the Michelob ULTRA Arena in Vegas
- Season Form: Both teams are 16–14. Seattle is 8–6 on the road, and Las Vegas is 8–5 at home.
- Recent Stretch: Storm is coming off a three-game slide, and the Aces have won their last two games.
- Head-to-Head: Seattle is ahead in the season series 2–1, and both of their wins were on the road. Las Vegas won the only game in Seattle.
- Analytics: ESPN gives Las Vegas a 58.3% chance to win, and Seattle is at 41.7%.
Betting Odds
Betting on the game? Here’s what the current odds and lines are at FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Storm | +1 (-108) | +100 | Over 163.5 (-110) |
Aces | -1 (-112) | -122 | Under 163.5 (-110) |
Injury & Roster Update
Who’s slated to play and who is sitting this game out due to an injury? Here’s the expected roster:
Seattle Storm
- Brittney Sykes: She is still listed as questionable; Sykes only recently joined the Storm, but she hasn’t practiced yet. We’ll find out closer to tip-off if she’s suiting up!
- Tiffany Mitchell: She’s dealing with a leg injury from the last game and is listed as day-to-day, so her availability is up in the air.
- Katie Lou Samuelson: She’s out for the rest of the season, recovering from an ACL injury.
Las Vegas Aces
- Cheyenne Parker-Tyus: Out for the regular season after giving birth in July, aiming for a return in time for the playoffs in September.
Our Best Bets
There are some really decent angles for this matchup! We see three bets that look good to us, and they’re in the chart below. And keep scrolling for a detailed explanation of why we think so!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Las Vegas Aces -1 (-112) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | This line is basically asking Vegas to win outright. And since they’re at home with the Storm, still trying to get their rotation down? We’ll take that bet! |
Las Vegas Aces -122 | ⭐⭐⭐½ (3.5/5) | If you don’t want to mess with a 2-point margin, the moneyline keeps it simple; just a win. The current price gives you value without upping your risk! |
Under 163.5 (-110) | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | This number feels sort of high for two teams that rely on shot discipline and defensive rotations. |
1. Spread (Aces –1)
Supporting Trends
- The Aces are 8–5 at home and have covered in 3 of their last 4 at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
- Seattle has lost 3 in a row and might be working Sykes into the lineup with little to no prep.
- The matchups usually come down to the fourth quarter, but Vegas has won 4 of the last 5 by 4 points or more.
Main Edge
If this game gets choppy down the stretch, Vegas is the safer side at the line. Why? Because they’re one of the W’s best from the stripe.
2. Moneyline (Aces)
Supporting Trends
- Vegas has won 6 of the last 8 home meetings with Seattle.
- ESPN’s win model gives the Aces a 58.3% edge.
- Seattle’s recent losses came against physical, postseason-caliber teams, and Vegas is that kinda team.
Consideration
If Sykes or Mitchell are ruled out closer to tip-off, the line could change a lot. Backing the Aces now could pay off before the number changes.
3. Total (Under 163.5)
Supporting Trends
- Two of their three games this season have stayed under 160.
- Seattle’s last five have averaged 158 total points.
- Vegas usually shortens possessions and slows things down against playoff-level opponents.
Risk Factor
If both teams are near full strength and the perimeter shooting heats up early? The under could be in trouble, but based on the recent scoring patterns, we think the total will be lower.
Bottom Line
- Primary Bet: Aces –1.5. Vegas is better positioned tactically and should control the final minutes with their experience and foul-line edge.
- Lower-Risk Option: The moneyline gives you coverage if it comes down to a single-point result.
- Total Consideration: The Under 161.5 is definitely worth a look if rotations tighten up and shot clocks get milked; both teams are built to defend.
Why Does This Pick Make Sense?
- Las Vegas has had the stronger track record at home and has the more stable core playing defined roles.
- Seattle’s rotation is undergoing a reshuffle; new player Brittney Sykes is listed as questionable, and Mitchell is also not guaranteed to play.
- The previous meetings were close games, but Vegas has typically edged them out by two possessions or more. The total sits pretty high for two top-tier defensive teams, but recent trends and matchups point toward a narrow Vegas advantage and a total that stays below the number.
X-Factors to Watch For
What are the main x-factors that could change who wins this one? The following factors:
- Sykes and Mitchell status: If either guard sits out, Seattle’s rotation gets thinner, and shot creation will be a problem. It also forces Loyd into heavier usage, and she’s been hit or miss this season.
- Seattle’s perimeter defense: They’ve had stretches where they close out really well and disrupt passing lanes, but they’ve also gone flat for quarters at a time. That kind of drop-off? It just won’t work against Vegas.
- Vegas execution around Wilson: When cutters time their movement well and the spacing stays intact, Wilson doesn’t have to do everything on her own. But when it clogs? Vegas leans way too much on isolation.
- Market movement: Keep a close watch on how the line shifts before the game begins. Any major changes tied to roster news could open up value in alternate spreads or live betting angles!
Vegas Has the Edge in Close Storm Showdown
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 83, Seattle Storm 80
The two squads are neck and neck on paper; they’ve got the exact same record, but they don’t have the same stability, which is why we are going with the Aces.
Vegas has stuck with its core group, and Seattle is playing around with its lineup, and whether or not Sykes plays is an important factor in late-game situations!
There isn’t a big margin here, so if you’re betting it? Check the final lineups and injury reports before you lock in your bets. The Aces have the better setup as of now, and they’re playing at home. We think that’ll be more than enough to win.
Best Bets Recap
- Spread: Aces –1 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Moneyline: Aces ⭐⭐⭐½
- Total: Under 163.5 ⭐⭐⭐
Keep in Mind: When the odds adjust shortly before the game, you can use the betting odds calculator to uncover the implied probabilities behind the latest lines.
