Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Los Angeles Chargers Prediction & Betting Picks (November 9th, 2025)
The Pittsburgh Steelers will be mild +130 road underdogs this week when they head west to battle the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football.
Aaron Rodgers guides the 5-3 Steelers, who still hold onto first place in the AFC North, into a hostile environment. Pittsburgh has been a balanced team that has been competitive in every game, but long travel and a primetime setting could combine to work against them.
Los Angeles may have more incentive to get the win, as they are 6-3 and looking up at the Denver Broncos in the stacked AFC West. They’ll own a light 2.5-point spread advantage as they hope to avoid falling to .500 at home on the year.
With a mild 44.5 game total, this showdown doesn’t project for insane fireworks, which could mean the week 10 SNF clash is of the methodical variety and goes down to the wire.
So, which team can bettors trust? I’ll investigate the odds and key matchups more closely as I get to my Steelers vs. Chargers prediction, along with my top picks for the game.
Game Info Snapshot
- Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
- Date & Time: Sunday, November 9th, 2025 | Kickoff at 8:20 pm ET
- Venue: SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA
- How to Watch: Peacock / NBC
The Steelers have to travel across the country for a primetime game, so the fact that they are still just +2.5 road underdogs suggests oddsmakers don’t see a huge gap between these two teams.
Pittsburgh has a slower, more methodical offense, while both defenses have showcased the ability to be stingy at times. That plays into a more tame game total.
Storylines to Watch
The biggest storyline continues to be what might be Aaron Rodgers’ retirement tour. He has a long history filled with excellent primetime efforts, and this is another one in a tense AFC clash.
Rodgers has been must-see TV for decent chunks of the season, so all eyes will be on how he and the Pittsburgh offense perform. If they don’t bring their A-game, they could struggle on the road.
Here are a few more storylines to keep in mind:
- Harbaugh vs. Tomlin: It’s a noisy narrative for the most part, but there’s still something cool about a legendary coach being on both sidelines. The strategy and decision-making aspect of this game is top level with two great minds going against each other.
- Primetime Studs: It’s just as interesting to see Aaron Rodgers and Justin Herbert duel. Both have been lauded for their typically stellar play under the bright lights, and if they both show up this one could be a barn burner.
- Alt-ernative OT: A massive storyline that beats everything else is the absence of stud offensive tackle Joe Alt. The Chargers have been spotty offensively without him at times in 2025 and he was recently ruled out for the year. If his replacement isn’t on point, the Steelers could give the Bolts’ o-line serious trouble.
Team Profiles
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a pretty shocking playoff contender, and they’ve gotten here in the weirdest way. Everyone assumed the arrival of Rodgers would give them a shot, but they are in full control of their playoff destiny at the moment.
Rodgers has had some big games, but this is a team built to run and play with a lead. They also have a talented but under-performing defense. If both are clicking, they are tough to beat.
- Under 30: Pittsburgh’s usually strong defense has been shaky this year, as they’ve allowed 31+ points three times – all losses. Naturally, Pittsburgh performed better in their other games, with only one win coming with the defense giving up more than 21 points.
- Extension of the Run: Pittsburgh would love to run the ball, but they simply aren’t very good at it. That’s led to a staggering 58% pass rate, but Rodgers and co; lean on short area, quick passing game. It doesn’t yield a lot of explosive plays, but it negates sacks and allows the Steelers to sustain drives.
- Sack Attack: Pittsburgh is middle of the road against the run and they’ve had major issues against the pass, but they can still get to the quarterback. They come in with the NFL’s 11th best sack rate and if they can generate pressure on SNF, the other defensive numbers may not matter.
Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers have been a rock solid team, albeit one that has been inconsistent. They should have a better standing considering they got off to a blazing 3-0 start, but most teams would love a 6-3 record through nine games.
L.A. has loads of offensive talent, but they aren’t breaking any records on offense this year. Their defense has often carried them, which at least is a reminder that this team is balanced enough to roll with anyone.
- Pass Happy: The Chargers pass at an insane 60% rate. Losing Joe Alt could impact that number long-term, while they actually have run the ball (10th) extremely well. They are loaded with weapons in the passing game, however, and they rank 6th in the NFL for their efforts.
- Stingy D: The Bolts rank 12th in points allowed per game, but they are especially tough on the pass. They own the league’s 8th best sack rate and also rank 3rd against the pass so far this year.
- Turnover Issues: The Chargers turn the ball over quite a bit for a team with such a good record. They come into this matchup ranked 22nd in giveaways per game and 23rd in interception rate. Conversely, the defense isn’t opportunistic enough (22nd) to offset things when they’re turning the ball over.
Key Matchups & Angles
Check out the key Steelers vs. Chargers matchups:
- Steelers pass rush vs. Chargers o-line: Pittsburgh’s biggest defensive asset is their pass rush. T.J. Watt is one of the best in the business and he was going to be a factor anyways, but remove Alt from L.A.’s o-line, and this matchup gets way more important.
- Chargers passing game vs. Steelers secondary: The Steelers went out of their way to improve their secondary, but they got older and worse. They come in ranking dead last against the pass, while the Bolts pass 68% of the time and are deadly accurate. If the Steelers pass rush isn’t successful, this could be quite bad for Pittsburgh.
- Chargers run game vs. Steelers run defense: This matchup comes down to what the Bolts want to do. If they are giving up too much pressure, they could opt to turn to their ground game. Kimani Vidal has looked good in two of three starts, while the Chargers (10th) have been effective on the ground when called upon.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
Check out the latest odds, per ESPN BET:
- Spread: Steelers +2.5 (Even) | Chargers -2.5 (-120)
- Moneyline: Steelers (+130) | Chargers (-150)
- Total: Over 44.5 (-115) | Under 44.5 (-105)
Take a look at some key betting trends for this showdown:
- Public Betting: Most of the bets (62%) are coming in on the Chargers, while just 42% of the money is there. This one is split, which isn’t shocking given the tight spread.
- Record History: These teams have faced off 36 times, with Pittsburgh holding a 25-11 series lead. They have only faced one time within the last four seasons, however, with the Steelers prevailing, 20-10.
- ATS Tidbits: Pittsburgh comes in 4-4 against the spread on the year, while they are 1-2 ATS on the road and 2-1 against the spread as the underdog. L.A. has been worse, going 3-5-1 against the spread overall, 1-3-1 ATS as the favorite, and just 1-2-1 ATS at home.
Best Bets for Steelers vs. Chargers
Pick 1: Steelers ML (-155) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
This is a big game for both sides, but the Steelers have a clear edge with Joe Alt being out of the lineup. If their pass rush can get to Justin Herbert early, we could be looking at a struggling Chargers offense and a shorter field for Aaron Rodgers and co.
Risks/What to Watch
The Chargers are the better team by the numbers, while they are at home and the Steelers have a long trip just to play this game. If the Chargers keep the Steelers’ pass rush at bay, they could have a lot of success in this spot.
Pick 2: Prop Play – Jaylen Warren Anytime TD (+125) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
Whether the Steelers win or not, I think there’s a decent chance Jaylen Warren finds the end-zone. Pittsburgh has been elite (7th) in red-zone scoring, while Warren is their go-to guy and the Chargers have allowed the 6th most rushing scores to running backs in 2025.
Risks/What to Watch
Predicting touchdowns in the NFL can be a volatile task, as variance can allow for a change in game plan, teams getting shutout, or a backup vulturing a score. Warren is a good bet to score, but what if Rodgers accounts for all of the team’s TDs through the air? There is inherent risk involved with TD props that bettors need to embrace.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Justin Herbert Over 250+ Pass Yards (-125) – 7/10 Confidence
Why We Like It
The Chargers could very well dial back their passing with Joe Alt on the shelf, but their 68% pass rate and the positive matchup sets things up nicely for them. Herbert has hit the Over five times in 2025 and this is one of the better spots he’s been in.
Risks/What to Watch
If the Chargers are playing with a lead, it’s always possible Herbert doesn’t have to pass as much. After all, he only passed 29 and 25 times in L.A.’s last two games.
Final Verdict: Steelers Pass Rush is Too Much for Chargers
My top Steelers vs. Chargers prediction is a Pittsburgh win. The Chargers need to prove to me that they aren’t the classic Bolts of old, where they constantly shoot themselves in the foot.
Pittsburgh also proved a lot of people wrong last week, when they beat a really good 7-1 Colts team. They’ve also been in every game this year, so if their defense can play more like it did against Indy, they should have a chance at dictating how this one unfolds.
I am a bit wary of the travel for this one, but the Steelers are a fun upset pick. The Warren and Herbert props align enough with the bet and have a good chance of hitting, too.
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 24, Chargers 20
