San Antonio Spurs vs. LA Lakers Prediction & Betting Picks (December 10, 2025)
The 2025-26 NBA Cup rages on, with the San Antonio Spurs and Los Angeles Lakers facing off on Wednesday night. Luka Doncic and the Lake Show enter as -218 betting favorites, but fans and bettors can expect a hard-fought game.
L.A. will be favored by 5.5 points, as Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama has officially been ruled out. He is officially expected to join the team, but will not play. That said, San Antonio just got Stephon Castle back, so they’re not an easy out even if Wemby isn’t available.
There is a lot at stake for this one, with the winner advancing to the semifinals of the NBA Cup. Let’s look at the latest odds and key matchups and come to a final Spurs vs. Lakers prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: San Antonio Spurs (16-7) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (17-6)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, December 10th at 9:00 pm (10:00 pm ET)
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net +, and Spectrum Sports Network
Early Season Performance & Trends
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs have enjoyed a strong start to the 2025-26 NBA season, going 16-7 through their first 23 games despite battling a litany of injuries.
The biggest one is to star center Victor Wembanyama, who has been sensational when healthy, but has been limited to just 12 appearances. The team also endured some time without star guards De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle at different points in the year.
San Antonio is starting to get healthy again, but they obviously will be without their biggest chess piece for both ends of the floor. The Spurs are in good form despite not being at 100%, as they topped New Orleans (135-132) in their last game and are 7-3 over their last 10 games.
Incredibly deep and balanced, the Spurs are a really tough out when at full strength. Even with Wemby sitting this one out, their talent and balance give them a shot against a suspect Lakers defense.
Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers are even better this year, as they have one more win than the Spurs and one less loss. Los Angeles got off to just a 2-2 start out of the gates, but have put together a stellar 15-4 run ever since.
Much of L.A.’s success has come without legendary point forward LeBron James, who only returned recently and has appeared in just seven games. He’s struggled to regain form since coming back to the starting lineup, but he did deliver a game-winning assist three games ago and exploded for a season-high 29 points in his last outing.
Los Angeles obviously has much more than King James, as Luka Doncic has been amazing in his first full season with the team, while the franchise has unearthed a legit gem with Austin Reaves, enjoying a massive breakout.
The Lakers are currently the second-best team in the Western Conference in terms of record and will look to further show just how good they are in this NBA Cup quarter-finals game.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Lakers and Spurs have run into each other 193 times during the regular season and have met an additional 56 times during the NBA playoffs.
For the regular season, the series has been tight, with the Lakers holding a narrow 99-94 advantage. They won the most recent meeting (118-116) back on November 5th and have claimed wins in four of the last five matchups.
L.A. is quite good at home (7-3), and they are 3-1 in their last four home games in this series.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Spurs have understandably built their offense around Wemby, which has worked out when he’s at full strength. He was quite the force prior to going down with an injury, as he’s averaging over 26 points per game on the season.
Wemby doesn’t have to carry this offense all on his own, of course, as De’Aaron Fox has proven to be a solid Robin to his Batman, while second-year guard Stephon Castle can also pop off as a scorer and create offense for his teammates.
That trio hasn’t spent a ton of time together this year, but the upside is there, and individually they’ve all chipped in to an offense that ranks 7th in scoring and 7th in effective Fg%. San Antonio grades out solidly at the line and from long range, too, making them a multi-faceted offense that is not going to be easy to stop when firing on all cylinders.
The story is similar for the Lakers. They run through Luka Doncic first, but both he and Austin Reaves have been feeding off each other. Doncic paces a strong Lakers offense (10th in scoring) that can infiltrate opposing defenses (11th most points in the paint per game), shoots extremely well (3rd in effective FG%), and knows how to get to the free-throw line.
Doncic (35 ppg) is what makes this team go, but Reaves, LeBron James, Deandre Ayton, and even Rui Hachimura form a strong supporting cast that gives opposing defenses a lot to think about.
Los Angeles is not a high-volume team from outside, but they’re at least middle of the pack in terms of knocking down their threes. The moral of the story? Luka leads an efficient offense that prefers to grind you to a pulp, but leaving their shooters open isn’t necessarily the way to beat them, either.
Both the Spurs and Lakers are methodical on offense and don’t overly rely on the outside shot. This has them grading out as slow teams in terms of pace (25th and 19th), but they still rank inside the top-7 in terms of offensive efficiency.
San Antonio has dropped to 11th in defense, but they were #1 to open the year with Wemby leading the charge. They still rank 9th in defensive efficiency and are allowing the 6th fewest points in the paint.
L.A. is not tough defensively, but they’re not awful. They rank 15th in scoring defense and 19th in defensive efficiency.
- Lakers penetration vs. Spurs interior defense: This is huge for two reasons; the Lakers eat in the paint and get to the free-throw line. On the flip side, San Antonio is tough inside and allows the 6th fewest free throw attempts per game.
- Spurs perimeter offense vs. Lakers perimeter defense: The Lakers are 11th at stopping inside scoring, so the way to beat them is on the outside. The Spurs hit from deep at a 36.6% clip (13th), giving them an edge against the 6th-worst three-point shooting defense in the NBA.
- Spurs transition game vs. Lakers transition defense: San Antonio ranks 12th in fastbreak points per game, and the Lakers are terrible (26th) at defending the break. With Wemby still sidelined, this is a matchup where the Spurs can thrive.
Wemby has already been officially ruled out for this game. His absence hurts San Antonio’s defense and takes a 26-point-per-game scorer off the table.
Marcus Smart (back) is slated to return for this contest. He’s been out since November 25th and will be a boost for L.A.’s perimeter defense.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Spurs vs. Lakers betting odds at DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Spurs | +7.5 (-115) | +225 | Over 238.5 (-110) |
Lakers | -7.5 (-105) | -278 | Under 238.5 (-110) |
The Lakers are reasonable favorites at home, largely due to the home-court edge and being healthier right now. It’s a little surprising the Spurs aren’t bigger underdogs with Wemby ruled out.
The game total feels pretty high given San Antonio’s solid defense and the slower pace of play for both teams.
From a Bettor’s Lens
Wemby’s absence hurts the odds of the Over delivering, while he would have also improved San Antonio’s chances of pulling off the upset.
The game total feels trappy. Both teams can put up points, but the Spurs are strong defensively, and neither team is reliant on the outside shot.
Situational Considerations
This is not a regular game, as it’s the quarter-finals of the NBA Cup. Both teams will want to win this game and won’t rest anyone that isn’t seriously injured.
This game is also in L.A. The Lakers are 7-3 at home, while the Spurs are just 7-5 away from home.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
LA Lakers ML (-278) | The Lakers are the 2nd best team in the Western Conference, they are at home, the Spurs are without Wemby, and a trip to the NBA Cup semifinals is at stake. I expect the Lake Show to show up and get the job done. | 8/10 |
Spurs ATS +7.5 (-115) | While the Lakers are a good bet to win this game, the Spurs are not chopped liver. They have still been very competitive without their top player. For what it’s worth, they are a solid 5-3 against the spread, too. | 7/10 |
Prop Play – Luka Doncic Over 30+ Points (-179) | Luka hits this mark in his sleep. You could target a higher point total, but this is as close to a gimme pick as it gets, barring a blowout. | 8/10 |
Line movement for Spurs vs. Lakers is heating up — monitor shifting odds, watch for price drops, and secure your edge at our trusted sportsbooks.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Lakers 115, Spurs 112
We now know that Wemby will not be available for this game. Due to that, my main Lakers vs. Spurs prediction is an L.A. win. I also acknowledge the fact that the Spurs can compete without him, so I like San Antonio’s chances to give the Lakers a run for their money.
Still, the Lakers are the better team right now, they’re at home, and getting to – and possibly winning – the NBA Cup title game could be a huge confidence booster for this squad. L.A.’s moneyline is safe, but not super appealing at -218, which is why I am including two more Spurs vs. Lakers picks I am high on.
Whether I’m right about that or not, Luka Doncic is a really good bet to top 30+ points. He is averaging 35 points per game on the year and has topped this mark in eight straight games, as well as 13 different times on the season.
