Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton Prediction (July 9, 2025) – Wimbledon Quarterfinals
Jannik Sinner will be playing Ben Shelton in the Wimbledon Quarterfinals, and we’ll get to that, but first? We have to talk about Sinner’s match against Grigor Dimitrov.
Sinner fell in the first game, injuring his elbow, and Dimitrov was up two sets (6‑3, 7‑5) and the third was 2‑2. It didn’t look good for Jannik, but after Grigor served an ace, he clutched his chest; he’d injured his right pectoral muscle. Sinner, being the gentleman that he is, ran around the net.
The 34-year-old had to throw in the towel and retire, walking off the court to a standing O from the Wimbledon crowd. And Sinner? He said, “I don’t know what to say because he’s an incredible player. I think we all saw this today,” reported Reuters.
It was heartbreaking to watch and devastating for Dimitrov, who has been plagued by injuries. Because of it, Sinner advanced and said this: “I don’t take this as a win at all… just an unfortunate moment to witness for all of us.”
Now that the World No. 1 is in the quarterfinals, he’ll face No. 10 Ben Shelton; they’re both cunning for a shot at the semifinals and a possible Grand Slam title.
Sinner’s elbow injury is worse than it looked, and he pulled out of Tuesday’s practice and is awaiting MRI results. Will he be able to play? And if he does, can Ben Shelton pull off the upset?
Look below for all of the stats, player profiles, betting odds, head-to-heads, and our picks for the three best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: Jannik Sinner (World No. 1) vs. Ben Shelton (World No. 10)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 9, approximately 9:30 a.m. ET
- Location: Court No. 1, All England Club, Wimbledon, London
- Surface: Grass
- How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+
Betting Odds
We’ve got the latest betting odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:
| Player | Moneyline | 1st Set Winner | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
Sinner | -340 | -230 | Over 39.5 (-120) |
Shelton | +240 | +165 | Under 39.5 (-115) |
Player Profiles & Form
How have Sinner and Shelton been playing, and what are their individual forms like? Look below!
Jannik Sinner (World No. 1)
- Sinner is a really aggressive baseliner with a big backhand and a really precise return game
- Had won his first three matches in straight sets but was down two sets to none and tied 2–2 in the third when Dimitrov retired with an injury
- Suffered a fall in the opening game against Dimitrov and has been dealing with elbow pain since; MRI results are pending ahead of the quarterfinal
Ben Shelton (World No. 10)
- Shelton is a lefty with a huge serve; it averages around 126 mph and tops out near 150
- He’s playing his first Grand Slam quarterfinal and looking better in each round
- He relies on pace and quick court movement, and plays aggressively at the net
Head-to-Head & Stats
- Overall: Sinner leads 5–1 and has won the last five matchups
- Recent trend: Sinner has taken four straight sets against Shelton
- Grass meetings: Sinner has won their only match on this surface during the 2024 Wimbledon Round of 16
Our Best Bets & Analysis
And here are our picks for the three best bets and a bonus angle!
1. Jannik Sinner to Win the Match
- Odds: Around –400
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Sinner has won five in a row against Shelton by attacking early in rallies and taking control with his souped-up backhand. He picks up the serve quickly, especially off the deuce side, and repeatedly forces Shelton to hit backhands while on the run.
On grass last year, Sinner broke twice and kept points short with depth and pace down the middle. If his elbow is okay to play, Shelton doesn’t have a way to disrupt him from the back of the court.
2. Shelton Over 8.5 Aces
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Shelton’s lefty serve on grass is a problem for any player, period. He hits wide angles on the ad side and straight flat serves up the T, and both are close to 130–140 mph. In last year’s Wimbledon loss to Sinner, he hit 11 aces in three sets.
Even if Sinner gets into return games, Shelton usually earns one or two free points per service game. This number clears unless he’s broken early in multiple sets.
3. Sinner –2.5 Sets (Wins 3–0 or 3–1)
- Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Shelton has only taken a single set from Sinner in six meetings. When his serve isn’t winning outright, Sinner targets his forehand with low pace and sharp angles, forcing opponents into rushed decisions.
Sinner’s backhand cross-court has consistently beaten Shelton’s positioning, and his court coverage forces extra shots. Unless Shelton wins a tiebreak or strings together high-percentage first-serve games? This doesn’t go to five sets.
Bonus Consideration: Under 39.5 Total Games
This lands in straight sets or a 3–1 match where one set ends 6–2 or 6–3. It loses if Shelton takes Sinner to multiple tiebreaks, but if Sinner breaks serve once per set and avoids extended games? The number stays under.
Risk Factors
We’re looking at three possible risk factors for this match:
- Sinner’s elbow: As we said, the injury came during a fall vs. Dimitrov. If it limits his service speed or forehand extension, it’ll allow Shelton to step into returns, and he’ll try to attack second serves early in sets.
- Shelton’s serve: When his first serve is landing above 70%, he dictates the pace and keeps returners off balance. If he’s hitting his wide angle on the ad side and backing it up with short points, Sinner won’t get a lot of looks.
- Grass conditions: Slick footing and a lower ball bounce due to early morning humidity can throw off timing on longer rallies. That setup favors quicker points and can take movement out of the equation, and that will help Shelton more than it will Sinner.
Wimbledon QF Wrap-Up: Who Has the Advantage?
Sinner has won five of their six meetings by knocking Shelton out of his patterns. He hits his returns low, targets the forehand side, and forces Shelton to reset from awkward court positions. On grass last year, Sinner won in straight sets without facing a break point.
Shelton’s serve does give him a chance to shorten points, but once the rallies start? It’s all Sinner. He’s been able to drag Shelton wide, bait errors on the forehand, and keep him from stepping into anything off the backhand wing.
Unless his elbow injury is more serious or it flares up during play, Sinner has every advantage in this one.
Best Bets Recap
- Sinner ML (–400): Four straight-set wins vs Shelton, match control in every recent meeting
- Shelton Over 8.5 Aces: Serve numbers clear this line even in straight-set losses
- Sinner –2.5 Sets: Pattern of breaking down Shelton’s forehand and return
- Bonus: Under 39.5 Games: This is worth a look if Sinner keeps return games short
Final Match Prediction: Jannik Sinner def. Ben Shelton — 3 sets to 1 (6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2)
If Shelton gets to a tiebreak? He has a chance. But in baseline rallies, he gets pushed off his spots way too easily. Sinner redirects, targets the forehand, and makes him defend on the run. We’re backing Sinner all the way!
Who are you backing for this matchup? If you’re feeling confident about placing a wager be sure you’re doing it at one of our recommended betting sites to ensure a safe and secure transaction.
