Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marie Bouzkova Betting Picks & Prediction (July 2, 2025)
No. 1. Aryna Sabalenka is back at Wimbledon after a semifinal run in Paris (she lost to Coco Gauff) and two semifinal finishes here in 2021 and 2023. She beat Carson Branstine in her opening match, serving above 70% and winning most points behind her first ball.
On the other side of the court will be Marie Bouzkova, who moved past Lulu Sun in straight sets but didn’t face the kind of pace or court positioning that Sabalenka brings.
Bouzkova plays a more defensive style of tennis, and that can hold up on slower surfaces, but on grass? If she doesn’t take time away or keep Sabalenka from stepping in, she’s going to be stuck in reaction mode.
Sabalenka is the heavy favorite, but could Bouzkova give her a run for it? Keep scrolling to read all you need to know about this one. We’ve got player profiles and stats, main match factors, the latest betting odds, and our picks for the three best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Marie Bouzkova
- Date & Time: : Wednesday, July 2; scheduled for 8:30 am ET, 12:30 pm UTC (1:30 pm BST)
- Event: Wimbledon Championships 2025 – Women’s Singles, 2nd Round (Round of 64)
- Venue: All England Club, Centre Court (grass surface)
- Surface: Grass
Player Form & Stats Comparison
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 2–1, and her most recent win came in straight sets at Brisbane earlier this year.
She looked really good in her opener match; she served well, attacked second balls, and stayed inside the baseline when rallies opened up.
Bouzkova had a solid first round, too, but her match lacked pace and didn’t push her out of her comfort zone. And that is not what she’ll get from Sabalenka. If Bouzkova can’t absorb pace or turn defense into offense, she’ll get destroyed.
Main Match Factors
Sabalenka and Bouzkova play completely different tennis. Sabalenka will try to take control early in points, and Bouzkova will try to disrupt that pace and extend rallies.
- Pace vs. Timing: Sabalenka flattens out her groundstrokes and looks to finish within the first few shots. Bouzkova doesn’t have the same strike power, but she does track the ball well and can redirect off both sides when she’s given the time.
- Grass-Court Reps: Bouzkova has more Wimbledon experience and usually handles low bounces with a lot less disruption. Sabalenka’s movement on grass can get exposed when points stretch beyond her initial pattern.
- Margin vs. Risk: Sabalenka plays with a narrow margin; when she’s landing first serves and stepping into her forehand, she’s almost impossible to stop. But when she’s rushed or off-balance, her error count goes way up. Bouzkova’s job? To keep Sabalenka off-balance without dropping her court position.
Betting Odds
if you’re interested in betting on this women’s matchup, here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Sabalenka (-1200), Bouzkova (+750)
- 1 Set Winner: Sabalenka (-650), Bouzkova (+425)
- Total Games: Over 18.5 (-120), Under 18.5 (-110)
Best Bets
Sabalenka has the advantage in raw power, experience, and shot-making on grass. If she controls her serve and limits errors, it shouldn’t take her long to beat Bouzkova. With that being said, here are our three picks for the best bets!
| Bet Type | Pick | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Match Winner | Sabalenka | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ 4/5 |
Set Betting | Sabalenka 2–0 | ⭐⭐⭐ 3/5 |
Total Games (Line: ~18.5) | Under 18.5 | ⭐⭐ 2/5 |
Why Do We Like These?
- Sabalenka’s serve and return game should limit Bouzkova’s ability to extend rallies or gain any footing, and it’s backed up by the stats.
- Bouzkova doesn’t have the pace to disrupt Sabalenka or push her into those longer sequences where her errors go up.
- If Sabalenka holds early and keeps her first-serve percentage up? This match should stay under the total.
- A straight-sets win looks like the most likely outcome unless Sabalenka gives up a stretch of free points.
Watch-Points to Highlight
What should you be watching for point-wise? The following:
- Sabalenka’s First Serve: If she hits her spots; wide on the deuce side, into the body on the ad; Bouzkova won’t have many chances to attack and will be stuck in “reacting off the return” mode.
- Bouzkova’s Rally Height and Depth: She needs to pin Sabalenka back with a lower trajectory and depth through the center. Anything bouncing high or inside the service line? Sabalenka will unload.
- Return Games: Bouzkova has to take big swings on second serves early on in the match. If she’s chipping or resetting from behind the baseline, Sabalenka will close service games in under four shots, and this could be over in under an hour.
Our Verdict: Can Bouzkova Pull Off the Upset?
Do we think Bouzkova can pull off an upset? Nope. Bouzkova doesn’t apply a lot of pressure on return, and her serve won’t keep Sabalenka off balance. That’s a real problem when rallies start with Sabalenka already setting her feet and dictating the pace.
Our Final Match Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka def. Marie Bouzkova
- Scoreline: 6–3, 6–2
- Confidence Level: ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5)
Sabalenka hits flatter, takes space early in rallies, and forces decisions with every forehand. Bouzkova can defend, sure, but she won’t control tempo, and she doesn’t have the shots to push Sabalenka out of her patterns.
She’s had success on grass, but this matchup won’t leave her any room to work. If Sabalenka stays within range on serve and keeps the ball deep? This is over in two quick sets.
Best Bets Recap
- Match Winner: Sabalenka ✅
- Set Betting: Sabalenka 2–0 ✅
- Games Total: Under 18.5 (slight lean)
