Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova Prediction (July 10, 2025)
Two of the biggest hitters that remain in the women’s draw meet on Wimbledon’s iconic Centre Court with a semifinal on the line. It’s Sabalenka vs. Anisimova, and this will be some great tennis!
Sabalenka has a monster first serve, and when her forehands and backhands are on? She’s formidable. And Anisimova’s return game has taken out higher seeds, and she’s been obliterating opponents’ second serves all week.
Sabalenka has lost only one set through four rounds, hitting 30 aces and winning over 80% of her first-serve points. Anisimova, who’s ranked No. 12, has ripped through the draw with wins over two top-20 players, including a straight-sets win over Qinwen Zheng. Their last meeting? That was at Roland Garros 2025, and Sabalenka won in straight sets, but this is their first time meeting on the grass.
With a Wimbledon semifinal up for grabs and very contrasting game plans (power-first vs. pace absorption), this one has a lot of good betting angles.
Keep scrolling to see all about the match, the betting odds and movement, both players’ stats, head-to-head history, grass-court numbers, and, of course, our picks for the three best bets. We also have a bonus prop that looks really playable!
Match Details
- Current WTA Rankings: Aryna Sabalenka: No. 1; Amanda Anisimova: No. 12
- Date & Time: Thursday, July 10, 8 am ET, 5 am PT
- Location: All England Club, London (Wimbledon Centre Court)
- Tournament Stage: Women’s Singles Quarterfinal
- Recent Wimbledon Form: Sabalenka: 4-0 in 2025 Wimbledon, dropped just one set; Anisimova: 4-0, upset No. 7 seed in R4
- What’s at Stake: A place in the Wimbledon semifinals, ranking points, and a chance at the Grand Slam title
Latest Betting Odds & Market Movement
Ready to lock in your wagers? Before you do, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Player | Moneyline | Set Betting | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
Sabalenka | -265 |
| Over 21.5 (-112) |
Anisimova | +215 |
| Under 21.5 (-118) |
Line Movement
- Sabalenka’s moneyline shifted from –240 to –260
- Total games market has leaned slightly toward a longer match
Stats & Trends to Know
Before you make any wagers, you should study how Sabalenka and Anisimova have been playing! And not only in this tournament, but during the grass season. Look below for all of their stats:
- Anisimova leads the series 5-3
- Last meeting: Sabalenka def. Anisimova 7-5, 6-3 (Roland Garros 2025, clay)
- Sabalenka: 7-1
- Anisimova: 6-2
- Sabalenka: 80% first-serve points won; 30 aces, 7 double faults through four rounds
- Anisimova: 75% first serve points won, 22 aces, 9 double faults
- Sabalenka: 8 wins in her last 9 matches
- Anisimova: 7 wins in her last 8, including two against top-20 opponents
As of publication, both players are healthy, and there are no reported issues or injuries
Pro Betting Analysis & Insights
How could this matchup play out on the court? And where does the betting value come from based on Sabalenka and Anisimova’s serve patterns, return pressure, and surface-specific trends?
Tactical Breakdown
Sabalenka plays so well on grass because her flat groundstrokes and early contact keep points short. When her first serve is landing above 70%, she controls rallies within the first few shots.
Anisimova is more precise from the baseline; she handles pace without backing up and uses her backhand to take time away when she redirects shots crosscourt. If she finds the corners and keeps her first-serve percentage steady? She can extend sets and apply pressure on return.
Situational Factors
- Weather: The forecast is dry and mild, which are perfect conditions for grass play; there won’t be any surface unpredictability.
- Court Experience: Sabalenka has played more high-stakes matches on Centre Court, including Slam semifinals. Anisimova hasn’t gotten to this stage at Wimbledon until now.
Our Best Bets
We’ve zeroed in on the angles that we think have the most value. Here are our three best bets and a prop!
#1 Sabalenka to Win (-260)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Sabalenka’s serving numbers on grass this season are at the top of the tennis world; she’s won over 75% of first-serve points, faced a low number of break chances, and her return games are really aggressive when she’s on the front foot.
She’s also 2–0 in previous matchups with Anisimova and hasn’t dropped more than five games in a completed match during this Wimbledon run.
#2 Over 21.5 Games (-120)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Anisimova has already played two matches that went over this number at this Wimbledon. Her backhand return has been so good, and she’s broken serve in every round.
Sabalenka can race through sets, but she does have weak areas, like her second serve or overhitting forehands, and that could stretch the score line.
#3 Sabalenka 2-1 Set Score (+260)
Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Anisimova has the shot tolerance and baseline depth to win a set if Sabalenka’s serve goes off or her timing drops. But across three sets? Sabalenka’s power, serve variety, and advantage in big-point hitting give her the edge.
Bonus Prop: Both Players to Win a Set (+1400
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
Both players have dropped a set in this tournament, and their strengths push the match in opposite directions; Sabalenka forces pace and early errors; Anisimova’s court positioning and early timing give her a chance to steal a set before Sabalenka takes over. If that happens, this number is playable!
Final Serve – Our Last Word & Prediction
Final Match Prediction:
Aryna Sabalenka defeats Amanda Anisimova 2-1 (scoreline: 6-4, 4-6, 6-3)
If Sabalenka serves above 70% and keeps her forehand in check, she’ll dictate the pace from the first ball hit. But if her second serve gets exposed? And Anisimova has done that to better-ranked players this week? Sabalenka will get dragged into longer games.
Anisimova isn’t on Sabalenka’s power level, but she might not need to be. Her early timing, especially off the backhand, can take Sabalenka out of position and force close service games. If she creates break chances early, it could go three sets.
Expect at least one set to go past 6–4, either in a tiebreak or a stretch of long holds. Sabalenka’s serve keeps her in control, but Anisimova’s return game has been good enough to extend pressure.
The over 21.5 games and both players to win a set props both line up with how this matchup plays out on the grass courts of Wimbledon!
