Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Betting Preview (July 6, 2025)
We’re in Round 16 at Wimbledon, and there have been a lot of upsets! And on Day 7, Carlos Alcaraz is up against Andrey Rublev on Centre Court.
Alcaraz needed five sets to get through Fabio Fognini in the first round, but he got past his next two matches without a lot of resistance. He beat Oliver Tarvet in straight sets, then knocked out Jan-Lennard Struff in four.
The No. 2 player in the world now faces his first-seeded opponent of the tournament: No. 14 Andrey Rublev in the third round.
What’s at stake? Only a quarterfinal berth and an opportunity to control the bottom half of the draw. Both players need this win to stay in title contention.
Alcaraz has demonstrated that he can play aggressive, low-bounce tennis on grass and adjust his patterns as needed. Rublev? He hits big off both sides, but his grass-court record against top opponents is limited. He has never reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon, and his baseline game hasn’t translated as well to lower-bounce and quicker points.
Look below for what you need to know about this match; we’ve got the latest betting odds, how these two players have looked during the first three rounds, stats, our four best betting angles, and a couple of props for live bettors!
Match Details & Stakes
- Matchup: Carlos Alcaraz (world No. 2, defending Wimbledon champion) vs. Andrey Rublev (14th seed, aggressive baseline hitter)
- Date & Time: Sunday, July 6; Centre Court’s final match of the day, scheduled for 8:30 am ET (1:30 pm BST)
- Venue: Centre Court, All England Club, Wimbledon; outdoor grass
- How to Watch: Broadcast in the U.S. on ESPN and ESPN2; streaming available via ESPN+ and Tennis Channel
- Stakes: A win sends the victor into the Wimbledon quarterfinals. Alcaraz is defending his title and his current grass court win streak (17 matches following Monte Carlo, Queen’s, and Paris). Rublev is after his first semifinal at Wimbledon since 2023.
- Prize Money: Wimbledon 2025 has a total prize pool of £53.5 million (~$72.6 million), with singles champions earning £3 million (approx. $4.07 million), a 7% overall increase from 2024
Head‑to‑Head & Surface History
How have Alcaraz and Rublev fared when they’ve played each other before?
- Head-to-Head: Alcaraz leads the series 2–1. All three previous meetings were on hard courts.
- Grass Form: This will be their first meeting on grass. Alcaraz has won 17 in a row on the surface, including last year’s Wimbledon title and this season’s preparation tournament. Rublev can hit through most courts, but on grass, his footwork and point construction haven’t held up the same way—they’ve been exposed in past rounds when opponents redirected pace or forced him forward.
Betting Odds
Want to bet on this one? Look below for the latest odds and lines via DraftKings:
| Player | Moneyline | Total Games | Games Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Rublev | +750 | Over 33.5 (-120) | +6.5 (-110) |
Alcaraz | -1200 | Under 33.5 (-110) | -6.5 (-125) |
What to Watch
What should you be watching for? The following:
Serve & Return Game
Alcaraz has faced nine break points in his first three matches and has been broken in each. His return game has made up for it, though; he takes aggressive positions and redirects second serves with depth.
Rublev hits over 200 km/h on his first serve, but his second drops way down in pace and is attackable on grass.
Baseline Power vs. All‑Court Play
Rublev will rely on his forehand to control rallies and push Alcaraz wide. Alcaraz uses a lot more variety in his shots; he’ll slice, pull Rublev forward, and look for short balls to finish at the net.
Watch for Alcaraz to try to drag Rublev forward with short angles and finish off points at the net.
Stamina & Pressure
Alcaraz hasn’t lost a set in his last seven grass matches, but Rublev could take one if he holds serve and lands his forehand early in the point. If there are longer exchanges and close games? They’ll favor Alcaraz’s shot tolerance and court coverage.
Our Best Bets
There is a lot of value in this match! We’ve zeroed in on four bets and a couple of props that look aces (sorry, tennis pun).
1. Carlos Alcaraz to Win (Moneyline)
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (Very High)
- Odds: Around -1200 to -1400 depending on the sportsbook
Why Do We Like It?
Alcaraz is on a 21-match grass-court win streak, including back-to-back Wimbledon titles. He hasn’t dropped a set yet this tournament, and he’s handled both pace and variety without any issues.
Rublev can hit through rallies but hasn’t managed to win against top players in majors.
Note: With a line that’s this steep, this bet works better as part of a parlay or live play if Rublev gets ahead early.
2. Rublev +2.5 Sets Handicap
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
- Odds: Around -110 to -120
Why Do We Like It?
Rublev has served well during the first week and can stay competitive long enough to take a set. He’s 1–2 against Alcaraz all-time and pushed him to three sets at the 2023 ATP Finals.
If Alcaraz wins 3–1? This still cashes alongside the moneyline!
3. Total Games Over 34.5
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)
- Odds: Around -110
Why Do We Like It?
If Rublev holds serve and extends the match by one or two sets, this total is reachable. A 3–1 result with no blowout frames (e.g., 6–4s, 7–5) gets you over the number.
This is a good option if you don’t want to pick a side and just want to back competitiveness.
4. Correct Score: Alcaraz 3–1
- Confidence Level: ★★☆☆☆ (Low to Medium – sprinkle only)
- Odds: +275 to +325 range
Why Do We Like It?
Rublev’s serve and forehand might be enough to take one set, but over five? Alcaraz has way more options and a stronger record on grass. Use this as a long-shot play, not as a main bet!
Prop Watch (For Live Bets)
First Set Over 9.5 Games (+ odds) is worth targeting if both players are landing a high percentage of first serves and holding without break points through the first few games. A 6–4 or 7–5 set keeps this on the table.n’t allowed many clear chances once they’re out in front. If this match follows the same pattern? One goal could be enough.
If Rublev wins the first set? Alcaraz’s live moneyline could move into a more playable range. He’s come back from one-set deficits before without dropping the match.
Betting Tips
- Shop the line before betting Alcaraz; he’s priced between –1205 and –1250 depending on the sportsbook. On a massive favorite like this, even a small difference can change your payout.
- Rublev +2.5 sets is available around –115. If you expect him to stay competitive but lose, this gives you coverage without having to bet on the upset.
- Over 34.5 games is posted between –110 and –115. A four-set match with a close second or third set gets you there.
- Court Conditions: If it’s dry and the ball’s skidding? Shorter points favor Alcaraz way more.
- Keep your stake in check! Don’t force a bet if the pre-match numbers don’t match up with how it’s playing out live.
What to Expect on Court & at the Books
Alcaraz has controlled the pace and positioning during the first three rounds. He’s been really aggressive behind his serve, stepped in on returns, and kept rallies short when he’s opened the court. Rublev does play with more raw power, but his shot selection? It’s flat and one-dimensional when he’s stretched on his backhand side.
If Rublev holds serve early and keeps Alcaraz from taking control of the middle third, he can stay in range for a set. When rallies stretch past the third or fourth ball, Alcaraz usually gets control by moving Rublev off his spot and taking time away with angles. Rublev needs to finish points quickly. If he doesn’t, he’ll be stuck defending.
The moneyline doesn’t offer a lot of room. Set props and totals are more playable; Alcaraz 3–1, Over 34.5 games, or Rublev +2.5 sets all match the likely scoring patterns without needing to fully back an upset.
Our Final Match Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz def. Andrey Rublev 3–1; Projected Scoreline: 6–3, 4–6, 6–4, 6–3
Rublev takes a set by landing his first serves and controlling some early rallies, but Alcaraz reads patterns, forces errors with placement, and closes it out in four sets.
Best Bets Recap
- Alcaraz to win (–1200): Best if used in parlays or live if Rublev manages to take the first set.
- Rublev +2.5 sets (–115): This covers a 3–1 outcome and gives room for one strong stretch.
- Over 34.5 total games (–110): Likely hits in four sets with one close frame.
- Correct score: Alcaraz 3–1 (+275 to +325): A realistic outcome if Rublev holds serve long enough to steal a set.
Don’t forget to check the lines across different sportsbooks for the best value, and, as always, gamble responsibly.
