Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Picks & Prediction (August 22, 2025)
Another three-gamer kicks off on Friday as the Arizona Diamondbacks (62-66) host the Cincinnati Reds (67-61) at Chase Field in Phoenix.
Who’s starting on the mound? The Reds are sending out Zach Littell, and the D-backs are countering Ryne Nelson.
Will southpaw Littell throw enough heat to put a damper on the Diamondbacks’ big hitters? We shall see!
Keep scrolling for everything you need to know about Game 1 of this series; we’ve got team form, the current betting odds, main storylines, comprehensive betting angles, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (67-61) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (62-66)
- Date & Time: Friday, August 22, at 9:40 pm ET
- Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
- How to Watch: Bally Sports Ohio (Reds), Bally Sports Arizona (D-backs); streaming on MLB.TV, Fubo, local RSNs
- Weather: The forecast won’t matter; Chase Field is under a dome!
Recent Form & Context
The Reds and the D-backs are in the running for the playoffs, but one squad is trending upward and the other is going in the opposite direction. Here’s how both teams have been playing as of late!
Cincinnati Reds (67–61)
Pitching Trends
- Zach Littell: His 3.52 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 151 innings put him among the most reliable starters in the MLB. In his last three outings, he’s allowed only a single run in two games; he has good control and doesn’t give out free passes.
Offensive Threats
- The Reds depend on depth over one or two players. They’re scoring about 4.6 runs per game and hitting .247 as a group, and they have 126 home runs throughout the lineup. Multiple hitters have reached double-digit homers, and that gives Cincinnati steady pressure in most innings, even if no one’s leading the league in stats.
Arizona Diamondbacks (62–66)
Pitching Trends
- Ryne Nelson: Nelson looks like a totally different pitcher in the second half of the season: he had a meh first half, but he dropped his ERA to around 3.05 and cut his WHIP to 0.99, and he did it by throwing a lot of strikes and upping his strikeout rate. Nelson is pretty much untouchable in his last 12 outings; he’s 5–0 with a 2.76 ERA and a .217 batting average against him.
Offensive Threats
- Eugenio Suárez is the biggest batter for Arizona; he has 36 home runs with a .575 batting percentage. His on-base numbers are solid (.320), and he’s been the main threat in the middle of the order. And although his batting average isn’t eye-popping (.248), pitchers cannot afford to make mistakes when he’s at the plate.
Betting Odds
Interested in putting some money on this game? We’ve got the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
| Bet Type | Reds | Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +113 | -137 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-181) | -1.5 (+148) |
Total | Over 9 (-110) | Under 9 (-110) |
Main Storylines
What are we watching for in this matchup? How the starters compare, Suárez’s batting vs. the Reds’ offense, underdog value, and late-inning trends.
Littell’s been built up to a full starter workload for the Reds and has worked six innings in four of his last five outings. Nelson? He’s bounced between roles and hasn’t gone past five frames since July 21. Arizona will most likely need 12+ outs from its bullpen.
Suárez leads Arizona with 36 home runs and 87 RBIs, and he’s been the only consistent long-ball bat in their lineup. Cincinnati doesn’t have a 30-homer player, but they’ve outscored Arizona by 28 runs on the season and don’t depend totally on one source for offense.
The Reds have a better overall record, more road wins, and a higher run differential, but they’re underdogs in most books. Arizona gets a bump for being at home, but the market’s leaning a little too hard into that advantage in our opinion.
Over the last 30 games, the Reds’ bullpen ERA is 3.41 compared to Arizona’s 4.82. And Cincinnati’s won more one-run games (27) than Arizona (20). If this one stays close after six innings, the Reds are better equipped to finish it off.
Betting Angles / Deeper Insights
- Moneyline edge? D‑backs favored, but margin slim enough for Reds bounce‑back value.
- Total lean: Over suggests both teams will unload runs.
- Team trends: Over-emphasis on offense; potential for high-scoring affair.
- External picks: FOX Sports predicts 5–4 D‑backs with Over 8.5 runs
Our Best Bets
What do we like bet-wise for this matchup? We’re looking at two decent angles and an okayish value bet!
Best Bet #1: Over 9 Runs
Our Confidence level: ★★★★☆ (Medium–High)
Why Do We Like It?
- The Reds average 4.6 runs/game with a .247 average and 126 home runs.
- The Diamondbacks have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 10 home games.
- Suárez and Marte give Arizona a combo of power and decent RBI potential.
- Elly De La Cruz has speed and is an extra-base threat to the Reds’ offense.
- Littell (3.52 ERA) and Nelson (3.58 ERA) both allow baserunners and have WHIPs over 1.25.
- Neither starter projects to shut down the opposing lineup over 6+ innings.
- Chase Field plays hitter-friendly even with the roof closed; the ball carries well here.
- The Over is juiced at –122, which signals strong market support.
- Expert models project a 5–4 final, and that cashes the Over.
Best Bet #2: Diamondbacks Moneyline
Our Confidence level: ★★★☆☆ (Medium)
Why Do We Like It?
- Arizona has a 33–29 record at Chase Field.
- Ryne Nelson has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 3 straight home starts.
- Littell has given up 3+ earned runs in 4 of his last 6 starts.
- The D-backs bullpen has had a small edge over Cincinnati in recent leverage innings.
- Arizona has won 7 of its last 10 home games vs. non-divisional opponents.
Value Bet: Reds Moneyline
Our Confidence level: ★★☆☆☆ (Low–Medium)
Why Do We Like It?
- Littell has held opponents to 2 runs or fewer in 4 of his last 7 starts, with improved command and strikeout rate in recent outings.
- The Reds rely on pressure at the plate with high contact rates, aggressive baserunning, and opportunistic situational hitting.
- Cincinnati has won 6 of its last 10 road games when it’s listed between +100 and +130.
- At +114, the implied win probability is 46.7%. If your projections land closer to 50%? That margin gives this bet long-term appeal, as it’s a classic value angle.
Heads-up—odds can shift quickly before first pitch, so check the latest lines and use one of the top sports betting sites to lock in the best value.
Go with the D‑backs, but the Reds Have Value
Final Score Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks 5, Cincinnati Reds 4
We are backing Arizona in the opener of this series! The D-backs get the advantage, and it’s because of their home performance and a steadier bullpen, but this won’t be a blowout.
Littell has been able to keep opposing teams in check during his latest starts, and Cincinnati’s offense is more than capable of generating runs without relying on homers. And don’t forget that the Reds have pulled out several road wins in this same underdog range!
The best value lies in the Over 9; there are two mid-3 ERA arms with traffic issues, lineups that can press mistakes, and a park that rewards extra-base power. Arizona’s moneyline is a most reasonable play if you’re looking for something safe, but there’s nothing wrong with taking a small chance on Cincinnati at +113 if you’re targeting the payout over the win rate.
Best Bets Recap
- Over 9 Runs: ★★★★☆ (Medium–High Confidence)
- Diamondbacks Moneyline: ★★★☆☆ (Medium Confidence)
- Value Bet | Reds Moneyline: ★★☆☆☆ (Low–Medium Confidence)
