Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Prediction & Best Bets (August 4, 2025)
Another summer series kicks off between the Cincinnati and Chicago Cubs! The Reds head to the Windy City for a three-game series starting at 8:05 on August 4.
The NL Central rivals take the field, and although the Cubs are slightly favored (home field advantage), do not count out the road dog Reds.
The Cubs are after the division title, and the Reds are trying to hold onto their place in the Wild Card race.
- Chicago is giving the ball to Mike Soroka, and his biggest hurdle? What happens once hitters get on base. Lefties have tagged him early in counts, and he’s had a hard time limiting innings after that. He doesn’t always work ahead, and when he’s forced into the stretch, the extra pitches pile up.
- Nick Lodolo is starting for the Reds, and he’s been more reliable with traffic. He fills the zone, changes eye levels, doesn’t let innings get out of hand, and he’s given the Reds 5–6 solid frames without needing early relief.
In this area? Lodolo gives the Reds a steadier hand, and the number on Cincinnati feels like it underrates that.
But we aren’t selling that short, so keep reading for our preview! We’ve got detailed pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and trends, main player/matchups to watch, and our picks for the three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds (58-54) vs. Chicago Cubs (65-46)
- Date & Time: Monday, August 4, First pitch at 8:05 pm ET
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
- Venue Factor: Wrigley usually suppresses scoring when the wind isn’t blowing out, so check the weather before first pitch!
- How to Watch: Watch on MARQ, FDSOH
- Weather Forecast: Expect temperatures in the mid-70s °F, with light clouds or haze, and a low chance of precipitation.
- Season Context: The Cubs are 65–46 overall and have been strong at Wrigley (35–20), still pushing Milwaukee in the NL Central. The Reds are at 58–54 and under .500 on the road (25–28), and are after a spot in the Wild Card race.
- Head-to-Head This Season: Cubs are ahead 2–1; Chicago won the last game.
Starting Pitcher Stats
Who’s heading out to the hill for the Reds and the Cubs? Below is the starting pitcher for each club and a breakdown of their skills!
Nick Lodolo – Reds (LHP)
- 2025 Stats: 8–6, 3.09 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 103 K in 95 IP.
- Recent Form: Lodolo has gone six or more innings in three of his last four starts, and he cuts down on free passes and forces grounders.
- On the Road: He has a 2.75 ERA away from home and has kept the Cubs’ lineup contained in previous meetings.
- Matchup Fit: His low-zone approach plays really well at Wrigley when the ball isn’t carrying.
Michael Soroka – Cubs (RHP)
- 2025 Stats: 3–8, 4.87 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 76 K in 89 IP.
- Recent Form: Soroka has been giving up base runners with high pitch counts and hasn’t gone beyond the fifth inning in recent outings.
- Home Numbers: His ERA climbs to 5.25 at Wrigley, and those margins get thin if you fall behind in counts.
- Against the Reds: Allowed five runs over 4.1 innings the last time he faced the Reds.
Current Betting Odds
If you’re betting on this game, you need to know the odds and lines! Here they are, courtesy of ESPN BET:
| Bet Type | Reds | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +120 | -145 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-190) | -1.5 (-160) |
Total | Over 7.5 (-125) | Under 7.5 (+105) |
Markets Overview
Moneyline
- The Cubs are at –125 at most sportsbooks.
- The Reds range from +110 to +125.
- The implied win rate on Cincinnati hovers around 46%, but model projections have them closer to 51%.
Run Line
- The Reds +1.5 (–182) gives you a little bit of a cushion, but the return isn’t great.
- Cubs –1.5 (+155) pays out better if they pull away, but that all hinges on Soroka holding up and the offense showing up.
Total Runs (O/U 7.5)
- The Under has been a decent angle when Lodolo starts.
- The Cubs remain below average against lefties; they’re in the bottom 10 in OPS vs LHP.
- The weather doesn’t look like it’ll play into scoring; moderate temps and low wind are expected.
Main Players & Matchup Trends
- Elly De La Cruz (Reds): Leads team in steals and triples; hit .312 in July.
- Spencer Steer (Reds): 17 home runs, 70+ RBI.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs): 25 HR, 27 SB; hits against lefties well.
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Batting .211 since July 15.
Team Betting Trends
- Reds: 4–1 ATS in last 5 road games; 6 of last 8 have gone under.
- Cubs: 3–6 ATS in last 9 home games; bullpen gave up 3+ ER in 4 of last 7.
Our Best Bets
What do we think looks good for this game? We’ve got our sights set on three best bets!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Cincinnati Reds +120 | Medium | Lodolo is the better starter, and Cincinnati is priced well as an underdog. |
Under 7.5 (+105) | Medium | Both teams have a hard time against lefties, and the Reds have leaned under in recent games. |
Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (-190) | High | Crow-Armstrong is hitting over .310 vs. left-handers; he likely gets two at-bats off Lodolo. |
Want a bonus angle? You got it!
- Same-game parlay: Reds ML + Under 8.5 → Pays around +290 depending on the sportsbook.
Lines can move fast before the first pitch, so staying updated is key. To make the most of your bets, check out our top-rated sports betting sites for the best odds and value.
Why We’re Taking the Reds as Road Dogs
Cincinnati has some real value in the series opener as the road underdog. Why? Because Lodolo’s been really reliable in the last month. He’s keeping the ball on the ground and limiting mistakes. And at Wrigley Field, that plays. Soroka hasn’t made it through six innings in weeks and has gotten into trouble once runners get on base.
The total looks playable, too! The Reds skew under with Lodolo on the hill, and Chicago hasn’t done very much hitting against lefties this season. Add in calmer weather and two lineups that don’t usually walk, and you’ve got a setup where one or two early hits could very well decide the game.
As for props, Pete Crow-Armstrong’s splits against left-handers are strong enough to believe in. Even if Lodolo keeps the ball down, Crow-Armstrong hits lefties well enough to get one through or beat out an infield single.
Best Bets Recap
- Reds ML (+120): Medium
- Under 7.5 (+105): Medium
- Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 0.5 Hits (–190): High
Final Score Prediction: Cincinnati Reds 4, Chicago Cubs 2
We feel like Lodolo will keep the ball out of the air, Soroka will fade after the third inning, and the Reds will grab the opener!
