Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction & Top Bets (July 23, 2025)
Cristopher Sanchez was absolutely dealing against the Red Sox on Tuesday night! He struck out 12 and went the distance in the Phillies’ 4–1 win over the Red Sox.
Kepler and Schwarber both knocked out homers, but this game was all Sanchez (he’s now 9–2); breezes through all nine innings on 106 pitches without giving up a single walk.
The Phils are now up 2 games in the series, and the second game was a lot less weird than the first, when Philadelphia won with a “walk off.” The game was tied at 2-2 in the 10th inning, bases loaded, and Phillies batter Edmundo Sosa checked his swing on a 2–2 pitch. His bat clipped Red Sox catcher Carlos Narváez’s glove. After a replay review, it was ruled a catcher’s interference, sending Sosa to first base and the runner from third home for a 3–2 Phillies win. It’s only the second walk-off via catcher’s interference in MLB history, and it was wild.
Game three is in Philly at the Bank, and first pitch is at 7:05 pm ET. Will the Phillies sweep? Or will the Red Sox get the last game?
Keep scrolling to see the latest betting odds, starting pitchers, team form, head-to-head, season stats, and our three best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Boston Red Sox (54–48) at Philadelphia Phillies (58–43)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 23, at 7:05 pm ET
- Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
- Weather Forecast: High near 82°F, partly cloudy, with a slight breeze blowing out to left field, and those are perfect conditions for homers
- How to Watch: MLB.TV, local RSNs, and ESPN+
Betting Odds
If you’re gonna put some money on this MLB game, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Red Sox | +1.5 (-160) | +130 | Over 8.5 (-122) |
Phillies | -1.5 (+132) | -154 | Under 8.5 (+100) |
- Implied Win Probabilities (via FanDuel odds): Phillies ~60.6%; Red Sox ~43.5%
FYI: The odds might shift during the day depending on team lineups and the betting volume, so lock in your bets early!
Starting Pitching Matchup & Breakdown
Who’s on the hill for the Phils and the Red Sox? Here’s who is slated to start!
| Matchup | Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | Jesús Luzardo (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
2025 Stats | 8–2, 2.45 ERA, 1.09 WHIP | 6–6, 4.21 ERA, 1.32 WHIP |
Hand | LHP | LHP |
Recent Form | Allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of last 10 starts | Solid outing last start after June slump |
Notes | Hard to barrel up; leans on movement and pinpoint changeups | Throws harder than Sánchez, but gives up bigger innings and walks at a higher rate |
Pitching Analysis
- Bullpen edge: Phillies (3.45 ERA) outperform the Red Sox bullpen (4.28 ERA).
- Splits vs. LHP: Phillies hit .280 against lefties; Boston’s lineup is less effective in same-side matchups.
Recent Form & Momentum
How have Philadelphia and Boston been playing lately? Here’s the recent form and momentum for both clubs:
Red Sox Trends
- Entered the All-Star break on a 10-game win streak but have dropped 3 of 4 since.
- Lineup cooled off: Only 3 runs total across two losses in Philly.
- The bullpen’s been overworked this week, so watch for possible overuse.
Phillies Trends
- Took the first two games of this series, including the strangest walk-off win on Monday.
- 31–17 at Citizens Bank Park, which is one of the best home records in MLB.
- Their bullpen ERA ranks among the best in the NL since mid-June
Head-to-Head History
- Last 10 meetings overall: Phillies lead 6–4
- Red Sox road trips to Philly: They’re 1–3 in their last 4
- Last matchup (July 2024): Phillies won 5–3, featuring a go‑ahead three‑run inning in the 7th
- Scoring trend: The average combined runs in the last 5 meetings is approximately 9.2, and that signals an over trend
Main Factors to Watch
What will we be keeping our peepers on in this game? These things:
- Scoring Windows: Boston’s lineup is really aggressive in the first few innings, but Philly tends to chip away and break through in the middle innings.
- Bullpen Edge: The Phillies have a relief advantage with the top five in bullpen ERA and WAR.
- Lefty Matchups: Philadelphia hits against left-handed pitchers really well (.280 team average); Boston doesn’t hit against southpaws as cleanly.
- Ballpark Conditions: Citizens Bank is hitter-friendly with warm weather and wind carrying to left field.
Our Best Bets
What looks good for this matchup? We think the following three are your best bets, and there’s a bonus lean that’s worth a look!
1. Phillies Moneyline (–154)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
Why Do We Like It?
Sánchez has kept games under control with movement and location, and the Phillies have been solid at home all season. Boston’s recent streak stopped cold once they ran into better pitching.
2. Sánchez Under 6.5 Strikeouts
Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆
Why Do We Like It?
The Red Sox have made pitchers work, and Sánchez has finished under this number in four of his last six starts. This feels like a night where contact could play a much bigger role.
3. Over 8.5 Total Runs (–122)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
Why Do We Like It?
Citizen’s Bank Park favors hitters in this weather, and both pens have logged innings in the last two nights. If either starter exits early? Things could open up in the later innings.
4. Same Game Parlay (bonus)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆
- Phillies ML + Over 7.5 Total Runs = +210 (estimated)
This one is for those who are looking for that plus-money juice! It’s a good value combo if you’re expecting a Philly win with action on the scoreboard.
Risk Factors & Watchouts
- Devers vs. Lefties: He’s hitting .489 this season against left-handed pitching and already has six homers off southpaws. Sánchez has to be precise, because anything that’s left over the plate? It could get launched.
- Luzardo’s Blow-Up Potential: In 4 of his last 6 outings, he’s given up 3+ runs in a single frame. If he loses command, Philadelphia’s lineup is built to stack extra-base hits.
- Bullpen Workload: Phillies arms like Alvarado and Hoffman have pitched two days in a row. If Sánchez exits early, the relievers behind him may not be the ones they want on the hill in close spots.
Suggested Bet Slip
Want help with a bet slip? We gotchu! Here’s where we’re putting our money for this one:
Don’t forget to stake appropriately; 1–2 units per bet max unless you’re unusually confident!
Can Philly Defend the Bank?
The Phillies have the pitching advantage and home record to back it up. Sánchez has been dazzling on the hill, and Philly’s bullpen has more depth if this turns into a reliever-heavy finish. Boston’s bats have been hot, but they’ve def hit a wall in this series, and it’s a bad spot to snap out of it against Sánchez at Citizens Bank Park.
Best Bets Recap
- Phillies ML (–154): ★★★★☆
- Sánchez Under 6.5 Ks (~–120): ★★★★☆
- Over 8.5 Runs (–112): ★★★☆☆
- Parlay: PHI ML + Over 7.5 (+210): ★★★☆☆
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 6, Red Sox 4
This one might be close into the middle innings, but if either arm starts to wear down? Philly has the stronger relief crew and the lineup depth to take over in the late innings!
Remember to bet smart and keep it responsible.
