Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund Prediction & Match Preview (July 5, 2025)
Real Madrid and Dortmund meet again, only this time it’s in the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup quarters, a little over a year after Madrid beat them in the Champions League final.
This is a knockout round, so the stakes are high! Madrid is coming in fully loaded, and they’ve been secure at the back, allowing only four shots on target during their last two matches. They’ve scored in the opening 30 minutes in three straight games, and that’s let them slow the tempo so that they don’t overextend key starters. Their main rotation—Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham, and Vinícius—has played most of the minutes and haven’t looked the least bit tired.
Dortmund will be without Jobe Bellingham, who’s suspended, and they haven’t used the same back four in consecutive matches since mid-June. Their left side, when Bensebaïni plays, has been pulled out of position by wide overloads.
Against teams that play direct through the wings or send runners into the half-spaces, they’ve given up high-quality chances inside the box. Jude Bellingham (Jobe’s brother) is lined up against the club that developed him, and this is only one of several matchups that are worth watching!
We have all the info you need if you’re planning on an Independence Day wager: how each team got to the quarterfinal, head-to-head and tactical trends, betting odds, players to watch, and our handpicked four best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund, a part of the 2024 Champions League final
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 5; kickoff at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT / 9 p.m. BST
- Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey, where the 2026 World Cup final will be played
- Broadcast: Live and free on DAZN (registration required) in the U.S. and UK; TNT also airing in the U.S.
- Stakes: The winter advances to the Club World Cup semifinals; improve their chance to win it all and get a piece of the $1 billion prize pool!
Road to the QF
How did Real Madrid and Dortmund end up here?
Real Madrid
Madrid are unbeaten under Xabi Alonso this tournament. They topped Group H with seven points, then beat Juventus 1–0 in the Round of 16 with a second-half winner from Camavinga. Gonzalo García has emerged as a super reliable option up front; he’s had three goals and an assist so far, and he’s played every minute since the group opener.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund won Group F and advanced past Monterrey with a 2–1 win thanks to a late finish from Guirassy. He’s scored three in the tournament and carried over strong Bundesliga form. Jobe Bellingham picked up a second yellow against Monterrey and will miss this match, which ends any chance of a head-to-head matchup with his brother.
Head‑to‑Head & Tactical Trends
And here’s what you should know about how they play:
- Recent meetings: Real Madrid have won 3 of the last 4, including the 2024 Champions League final.
- Formations: Both sides use a variation of a back three; Madrid in a 3‑4‑2‑1, Dortmund closer to a 3‑5‑2 setup.
- Madrid’s approach: High pressing with Mbappé and Vinícius pushing defenders wide, the midfield steps up to win second balls.
- Dortmund’s approach: Direct through the wings, looking to break lines quickly and attack space after turnovers.
- Key absence: Jobe Bellingham (Dortmund) is suspended.
- Midfield boost: Madrid start with Valverde–Camavinga holding, and Bellingham supports link-up and final third entries.
Main Players to Watch
Here’s who you should be watching during this game!
| Player | Impact |
|---|---|
Gonzalo García (RM) | He has scored in every match; he finds space in the box and makes intelligent runs off the ball. |
Kylian Mbappé (RM) | Cleared to start after an injury, his pace forces defenders back and creates gaps for Madrid’s midfield. |
Serhou Guirassy (BD) | Dortmund’s best finisher; he positions well between lines and reacts quickly in the box. |
Jude Bellingham (RM) | Madrid’s central driver; he breaks pressure, connects phases, and presses high when he needs to. |
Betting Odds
Looking for the latest betting odds and lines? Here they are according to BetMGM:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Real Madrid -160
- Draw: +320
- Dortmund +380
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -165
- No +115
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (-190)
- Under 2.5 (+130)
Our Best Bets
#1 Real Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap)
- Odds: Around -110
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
Why do we like it?
Madrid has covered this in 6 of their last 7 knockout matches. They control the ball, limit mistakes, and create chances with pace and overloads. Dortmund are missing Jobe Bellingham, and that weakens their press and disrupts link-up through midfield. A one-goal win pushes; anything more? It pays.
#2 Over 2.5 Goals
- Odds: ~ -190
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why do we like it?
Madrid’s last four have all cleared this number. Dortmund has scored in 9 of 10 and can’t seem to stay compact when they trail. Both sides commit numbers forward and don’t slow play in transition. The goals usually come once one side breaks through.
#3 Both Teams to Score – Yes
- Odds: ~ -165
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why do we like it?
Madrid will hold possession and push their fullbacks high, which leaves space behind. Dortmund can break quickly through Guirassy and Adeyemi when Madrid’s midfield shifts forward. Both clubs have scored in five of their last six meetings, and the setup points to it happening again.
#4 Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer
- Odds: ~ +165
- Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
Why do we like it?
Guirassy has scored in four of Dortmund’s last five matches. He makes direct runs, gets into the box early, and doesn’t need a lot of touches to finish. Madrid’s back line has been caught flat more than once, and Guirassy is the most likely to take advantage of that again.
Tactical Battle Points
- Madrid’s midfield trio (Camavinga, Valverde, Bellingham) will control the tempo and limit second-ball chances. Dortmund will have to break up that rhythm to have any control.
- Mbappé and Vinícius will target the space behind Dortmund’s back three if the wingbacks get caught too far up.
- Dortmund has to close down the wide channels early and force Madrid inside, or they’ll be chasing overlaps and cutbacks the whole game.
- Without Jobe Bellingham, Dortmund lose midfield cover, so Madrid will likely overload that zone to pull Can and Sabitzer out of position.
Our Pick to Advance: Real Madrid or Dortmund?
This quarterfinal comes with knockout pressure, top-tier talent, and a rematch that has a lot of baggage. Real Madrid has more control in midfield, more reliable scorers, and a solid lineup.
Dortmund are without Jobe Bellingham, and their back four has changed in each of their last three matches. They’ve allowed goals in five straight and struggled most when defending wide overloads or tracking late midfield runners.
Best Bets Recap
We’re backing Real Madrid to advance, and here are our best bets!
- Real Madrid -1 (Asian Handicap): ★★★★☆
- Over 2.5 Total Goals: ★★★☆☆
- Both Teams to Score: Yes, and Guirassy Anytime Scorer are also in play if you’re looking for alternate angles!
Final Score Prediction: Real Madrid 2 – 1 Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid controls the ball and breaks down Dortmund with García’s movement and Mbappé’s pace. Dortmund pull one back in transition, but they can’t create enough inside the box to stay in it.
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