Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Prediction (July 28, 2025)
The Yankees will host the Rays for a three-game series that begins on July 28 at 7:05 pm ET!
Tampa Bay is heading to the Bronx, where they’re hoping to stop their losing streak (they’ve lost 7 of their last 10 games). NY has fared a little better; they lost the first 2 games against Philly but won the third 4-3.
Drew Rasmussen will be back on the mound after nearly 14 months of recovering from elbow surgery. He’ll most likely be limited, but Tampa’s hoping he can get through the lineup once without giving up much. But the Yankees still have the deeper lineup and a bullpen that’s logged fewer innings this week. If Rasmussen can’t give length? It puts a lot of pressure on Tampa’s middle relief.
Playoff positioning is at stake, y’all! Keep reading to see starting pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and lines, main storylines, our four best bets, and our final score prediction!
Game Details
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (53‑53) vs. New York Yankees (57‑48)
- Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 7:05 pm ET
- Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- How to Watch: YES Network (Yankees), Bally Sports Sun (Rays), MLB.tv
- Starting Pitchers: Clear with mostly sunny skies with temps in the low to mid 90s, but it’ll cool down to the 80s during the game. There’ll be light winds from the east-northeast that should have minimal influence on fly balls.
Starting Pitchers & Matchup Insights
Who’s throwing in Game 1? The Rays are sending out Drew Rasmussen, and the Yanks will have Carl Schlittler on the hill. Look below for a breakdown of each starter’s stats!
Drew Rasmussen (Rays)
- 7–5 record | 2.93 ERA | 1.09 WHIP
- Over his last 3 starts before his injury: 2.14 ERA, 20 Ks in 18.1 IP
- Rasmussen attacks the zone early, gets quick outs, limits hard contact, and he’s super effective against righty-heavy orders
Cam Schlittler (Yankees)
- 1–0 record | 4.35 ERA | He was promoted mid-July
- Debuted with 5.2 innings of 1-run ball against Seattle
- Can have a hard time when he’s working behind in counts to lefties; Tampa could load the lineup accordingly
Advantage
Rasmussen has a clear advantage in experience and command. His cutter-sinker mix keeps right-handers at bay, and he doesn’t give up a lot of base runners via walks. If the Rays let him work into the sixth? He can neutralize the top half of the Yankees’ order. Schlittler looked really composed in his debut, but he hasn’t faced a team that can stack up solid lefties like Tampa does.
If Tampa stretches Schlittler’s pitch count, the Yankees could be looking at bullpen duty by the fifth inning. Rasmussen has the advantage because of his command and track record against right-handed hitters, and if the Rays give him the support, he’s in a solid spot to work through six.
Betting Odds & Market Movement
If you’re gonna bet on this game, look below for the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
Run Line | –1.5 (+164) | +1.5 (-200) |
Moneyline | -120 | +102 |
Total | Over 8.5 (-114) | Under 8.5 (-106) |
Check the most recent odds before betting—lines can move as game time nears, and staying informed could be the difference between a win and a miss.
Line Movement
- The Yankees ML opened around –175 and moved to –196 and is now down to -120; sportsbooks are reacting to steady money on New York and a possible pitching advantage.
- The total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5; early bettors are likely leaning under based on the lineup form and weather.
Betting Splits
- A lot of public bets are leaning hard toward the Yankees’ moneyline because, well, they’re the Yankees.
- The Rays +1.5 and the Under have drawn extra interest from sharper bettors; the movement shows there is a split between casual and sharper action.
Storylines to Watch
What are we watching for in this one? The following factors!
- Rasmussen’s First Start Back – After a long recovery, Rasmussen returns to a tight playoff race. He doesn’t have to go deep, but how good he looks in the first few innings will say a lot about how ready he really is.
- Schlittler’s Second Test – The Yankees are throwing the rookie into the lion’s den. His debut went really well, but Tampa’s hitters work deeper counts and can expose command lapses if he gets behind early.
- Bullpen Balance – New York gave their late-inning arms a workout over the weekend, and Tampa pretty much stayed out of high-leverage spots. That disparity could come into play if this turns into a six-inning game.
- AL East Stakes – The Yankees are trying not to slip behind in the rankings, and the Rays can’t afford many more losses if they want to stay in the Wild Card chase.
- Lefties vs. the Bronx Dimensions – Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, and any other Tampa lefties in the lineup could benefit from that short porch in right field. One solid swing could change the game!
Our Best Bets
Who and what do we think are the best bets for the game? Here are the four angles that we feel have the most value!
| Bet | Why Do We Like It? | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Under 8.5 Runs | Rasmussen keeps the base traffic light, and the Yankees are likely to cap Schlittler around five innings. Both bullpens are rested and capable of covering the second half without leaking runs. | ★★★★☆ (70%) |
Yankees Moneyline | New York has a stronger lineup top to bottom and a deeper bullpen. They’ve played really well at home and match up well against Tampa’s bottom half. | ★★★☆☆ (60%) |
Rays +1.5 Run Line | Rasmussen’s command gives Tampa a shot to keep this within a run, even if the bats don’t deliver. Their bullpen’s been holding leads and limiting big innings. | ★★★☆☆ (50%) |
First 5 Innings Under 4.5 | Both starters have been good the first time through the order. If Rasmussen keeps the ball down and Schlittler avoids walks? The scoring should stay limited through the first five frames. | ★★★★★ (75%) |
How to Bet on the Rays vs. Yankees Game
We’re backing NY, but that Moneyline? It’s inflated. Rasmussen has the pitches in his arsenal to stall the Yankees’ best hitters, and that puts the Under 8.5 in play as the better angle. If the game stays scoreless through three? Then we’re talking live totals that could give you extra value!
Best Bets Recap
- Under 8.5 Runs (–118); Confidence: ★★★★☆
- Yankees Moneyline (–196); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
- Rays +1.5 Run Line (–142); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
- First 5 Innings Under 4.5; Confidence: ★★★★★
Wanna bet smarter? You can use our sports betting strategies, and you can find out where to do it on our best sportsbooks page!
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Rays 2
This game won’t be a blowout like we saw with the first two in the Yankees/Phillies series this weekend (sorry, NY fans, but the Phils whooped y’all), but the Yankees will take it over the Rays.
