Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction & Top Bets (June 9, 2025)
The Rays and Red Sox meet up on Monday night in what should be a close one in the AL East matchup at Fenway.
Tampa Bay is playing better ball, and Boston’s trying to stabilize things after a wobbly few games. Shane Baz gets the pitching nod for the Rays against Brayan Bello, and both young right-handers are gonna have to be on in this hitter-friendly setting.
Boston opened as a slight favorite, but the odds are almost even! The total’s sitting at 9, and with the way the lineups can hit? That number could go higher in the early innings.
Keep scrolling to find out what we think will happen and for our best bet picks!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (35-30) vs. Boston Red Sox (
- Date & Time: Monday, June 9, at 7:00 pm ET (4:10 PM PT)
- Venue: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
- Where to Watch: MLB.tv or live TV bundles (Fubo, Hulu+, YouTube TV, DIRECTV Stream)
- Weather Forecast: Mostly cloudy skies with temperatures around 63°F
Prediction Breakdown
50.8%
49.2%
According to GamblingSite.com
Betting Odds
Here are the current betting odds via FanDuel:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Rays | -1.5 (+152) | -104 | Over 9 (-114) |
Red Sox | +1.5 (-184) | -112 | Under 9 (-106) |
Pitching Matchup Breakdown
The game has two developing arms that haven’t been totally reliable. Baz has the better strikeout profile, but Bello’s been better at limiting damage. It’s a matchup that could go sideways if either one loses the zone in the first few innings.
Tampa Bay: Shane Baz (RHP, 5–3, 4.96 ERA, 60 K)
Baz throws hard and gets strikeouts, but his fastball location is really unreliable. He’s allowed 10 homers in 10 starts, and Fenway’s left field doesn’t give him a lot of room for error. He can work through lineups if his slider is good, but when he falls behind, hitters sit fastball and nail it. Boston’s lineup profiles well against this kind of pitcher; high-velocity but prone to mistake pitches.
Boston: Brayan Bello (RHP, 2–1, 3.91 ERA, 33 K)
Bello’s been the more stable pitcher of the two, but has control issues that limit his outings. His walk rate is high, and he’s had trouble getting through six innings. The Rays take pitches and force starters to work, and that could drive up his pitch count. Bello can generate ground balls when he’s locating, but lapses in command have cost him runs.
Team Offense & Stats
Let’s talk stats! Boston’s put up better contact and power numbers. Tampa Bay’s pitching has done a better job of limiting hits and runs.
- Tampa Bay: .247 AVG, 528 H, 69 HR, 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
- Boston: .254 AVG, 585 H, 78 HR, 4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Big Hitters
- Rays:
- Junior Caminero (15 HR, .262 AVG, 40 RBI)
- Jonathan Aranda (.320 AVG)
- Red Sox:
- Rafael Devers (13 HR, .283 AVG, 56 RBI)
- Alex Bregman (.299 AVG, .553 SLG)
Trends & Fatigue Check
Boston has taken more of the recent meetings, although most have been really close on the scoreboard. Baz went six full innings his last time out and should be ready for a normal workload.
Bello didn’t go as long in his previous start, and that could put extra pressure on Boston’s bullpen if he gets into trouble. Tampa Bay looks to have a slight advantage in starting pitcher durability going into this one.
Offensive Intel
Offensively, here’s what’s happening with the two teams!
Tampa Bay
- Yandy Díaz has hit .310 over the past 15 games and hardly ever swings at pitches that are outside of the zone.
- Caminero has 4 home runs in his last 10 games, and most of them are pulled to left off fastballs in the zone.
- The Rays tend to swing early against right-handers with fastball-heavy profiles like Bello.
Boston
- Devers has 5 extra-base hits in his last 6 games and has been handling breaking balls better than he did earlier in the season.
- Bregman’s seen a jump in line-drive rate and has reached base 9 games in a row.
- Duran’s hitting over .300 against righties this month and has 6 stolen bases in that stretch.
- Boston’s top four hitters have combined for 12 home runs over the past two weeks.
Game Flow Prediction
- Early innings: Expect a slow start. Baz and Bello can be unpredictable, but they’ve shown that they can navigate the first two innings without a ton of damage. One run each through three innings feels likely.
- Middle innings: This is where things could change. Baz has had a hard second time through the order, and Bello’s command usually drops around the fourth or fifth inning. A solo homer or a two-out rally could decide things either way.
- Late innings: If the score’s close, watch for pinch runners and aggressive sends from third. Both teams have speed options and aren’t afraid to press if the chance pops up.
The bullpen matchup may end up deciding this one. If either starter is forced out early by walks or pitch count? That’s a sign of what’s to come.
Our Top Bets
We’ve studied this matchup, the arms, and the recent trends, and below is what we think are the best bets!
- Rays -122: Baz has a stronger strikeout profile, and Tampa’s bullpen has been more reliable. That might be enough to offset Boston’s edge in hitting.
- Under 8: Both pitchers have allowed home runs, but it’s unlikely both get knocked around. If either starter settles in, this stays under.
- Red Sox Over 4.5 Runs: Boston’s offense has been better at home, and Tampa’s staff, while solid, has been vulnerable to crooked innings.
- Shane Baz 5+ Strikeouts: Baz averages just under a strikeout per inning and has hit this number in 6 of 8 starts. Boston swings often enough for him to get there again.
Why this Series Matters
- Standings Watch: Tampa Bay sits at 35–30; Boston’s 31–35 and is trying to stay within reach. A win here will extend the separation or cut it to three games.
- Series Implications: Game 1 will set the direction. Boston needs this to stay in the mix at home. Tampa can put the Red Sox in a hole right away.
- Pitching Matchup: Baz throws harder and racks up strikeouts. Bello’s more controlled but less overpowering. The game could come down to who doesn’t make early mistakes.
Rays or Sox – Who Comes Out on Top?
Our Final Score Prediction: Rays 5 – Red Sox 3
Tampa gets a couple of runs early, adds on against the bullpen, and hangs onto the lead with solid relief work. Baz does enough to keep Boston from pulling even, and the Rays take the opener!
This one will be close, but Tampa unquestionably has the advantage on the mound. Baz has the stronger strikeout profile and is better equipped to get through five or six innings without having a meltdown. Bello’s been less than efficient with his pitch count, and control is a big problem. Tampa’s bullpen has been steadier and can cover the back half without much drop-off.
Boston’s lineup has been more active in the last few weeks; they’ve been generating higher contact and more power. But Tampa’s pitching limits baserunners and keeps innings from getting away from them. At Fenway, mistakes come with extra weight, and neither starter has much margin for error.
The Red Sox might draw more tickets at home, but Tampa Bay has the stronger matchup on the mound and in the bullpen.
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