Baltimore Ravens vs. Buffalo Bills Preview & Prediction (September 7, 2025)
Week 1 Sunday Night Football is no joke! It drops us right smack in the middle of a heavyweight fight between the Ravens and the Bills, and it all happens at 8:20 pm at Highmark Stadium in NY. It’s a rematch of last year’s Divisional Round, where Buffalo won by two measly points (27–25) and ended Baltimore’s season.
But not so fast, Bills fans! This time? Baltimore is hitting the gridiron as a stronger unit. Lamar Jackson has Derrick Henry right beside him, the offensive line is healthier, and the defense that finished top five in scoring is fully intact. John Harbaugh’s group looks prepped and is in peak physical shape.
As for Buffalo, they’ve got Josh Allen, and he’s a problem for everyone. But he doesn’t have Stefon Diggs anymore, so the Bills’ passing game just isn’t the same. Gabe Davis and a rookie wideout are being asked to fill some big WR1 shoes in Week 1 against Baltimore’s secondary is a tough ask.
Oddsmakers have moved the line toward Baltimore, and the near pick’em spread shows it. The Ravens look like the more complete team as of now, and that’s where the sharper betting angles are!
We’ll get into all of it, so keep reading for the current betting odds, main storylines, angles, injuries, rosters, market insights, and what we feel are the three best bets for Sunday night game one!
Matchup Overview
- Matchup: Baltimore Ravens (0-0) vs. Buffalo Bills (0-0)
- Game Details: Sunday, September 7, at 8:20 pm ET (Sunday Night Football)
- Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
- How To Watch: NBC
- Weather Forecast: Clear skies, with temp around 69°F at kickoff and dropping to 66°F by halftime, and light winds; no weather concerns for the game!
Quick Facts
- The Ravens went 13–4 last year and took the North. They looked solid week after week.
- The Bills finished 12–5 with another AFC East title in the bag, but were still trying to break through in January.
- The last time they met? It was a divisional round, and Buffalo won 27–25. It could’ve gone either way.
- Both are near the top of the Super Bowl board going into 2025; nobody’s sleeping on them.
- Seeding is always a factor, even in the first game. Later in the season, the winner here could own a tiebreaker.
- Week 1, a Sunday night game, and the Ravens vs. the Bills? You don’t get more public money flooding in than this spot!
Current Odds Snapshot
Excited to start betting on NFL games? Us too! Here’s what ESPN BET has for the odds and lines for the Ravens vs. the Bills:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Ravens | -1.5 (-110) | -130 | Over 50.5 (-120) |
Bills | +1.5 (-110) | +110 | Under 50.5 (EVEN) |
Line Movement Tip: The books opened Buffalo at -1.5 and haven’t budged, and didn’t budget until now, that tells you the action has been pretty balanced on the spread. The total, though, has already dropped a point from 51.5 to 50.5, and the heavier money so far has landed on the under.
Main Storylines & Angles
There’s no love lost between these two teams, so it’s a rematch with lots of playoff history, two MVP quarterbacks, new personnel that changes how both offenses function, and coaches who will go at Week 1 from different angles!
1. Ravens’ Revenge Tour
Baltimore’s season ended in Buffalo last January, and this is the third time in four years the Bills have sent them packing. John Harbaugh (the older brother of Jim Harbaugh, the coach of the LA Chargers) will push Allen with simulated pressures and disguised coverages, forcing him to throw underneath instead of hunting for explosive plays. On offense, look for Baltimore to rely heavily on read-option and RPO looks to keep Buffalo’s linebackers mired in conflict.
2. Elite QB Battle
Lamar Jackson produced nearly 4,000 passing yards and over 1,100 rushing yards in 2024. The plan is apparent: keep him outside the pocket, where his run-pass decisions break up structure. Josh Allen threw for 4,200 yards with 36 TDs, plus another 600+ on the ground, but Buffalo’s offense is at its most lethal when he hits intermediate windows early in drives instead of relying on broken plays. The QB who gets to his comfort zone first? That’s the pivot point.
3. New Weapons & Matchup Upgrades
Baltimore’s addition of Derrick Henry means their run game can toggle between power downhill and zone read with Jackson. That combo stresses safeties, opening windows for Zay Flowers, now in year two, to work the seams. Buffalo is adapting without Stefon Diggs; Gabe Davis and rookie Jeremiah Bivens aren’t the same level of route-winners. That means Allen has to rely more on tight end mismatches and backs in the passing game.
4. Coaching Duel
John Harbaugh usually nails the Week 1 prep with scripted drives, special teams plays, and defensive game plans that hold up well. Buffalo coach Sean McDermott is a lot more conservative on fourth downs and red-zone calls, but with a new WR group, he might be forced to gamble earlier in drives. Coaching decisions for this game won’t be abstract; they’ll decide short fields and possession count.
Injury & Roster Watch
Who’s playing and who’s sitting on the sidelines? Here’s the scoop:
Baltimore Ravens
- LT Ronnie Stanley (back) – Probable: Barring a setback, he’ll be in the lineup protecting Lamar’s blind side. His presence locks down left tackle after an unreliable preseason showing from the backups.
- CB Marlon Humphrey (groin) – Questionable: If he can’t play, Baltimore will be forced to rely on Brandon Stephens or Jalyn Armour-Davis outside, both of whom were targeted repeatedly in coverage last season.
- WR Keon Coleman – Rookie debut: Slotted for his first NFL action. Expect him to line up mostly on the outside, where Baltimore needs a vertical option opposite Zay Flowers.
Buffalo Bills
- TE Dalton Kincaid (ankle) – Probable: Practiced fully this week and is expected to run his normal route share. He is still Josh Allen’s top short-to-intermediate target.
- CB Tre’Davious White (ACL recovery) – OUT: White is still rehabbing and won’t be available, and that makes Buffalo thin at corner. Christian Benford and Kaiir Elam are projected to handle boundary coverage.
- WR Jeremiah Bivens – Rookie debut: Expected to rotate behind Gabe Davis. Coaches like his size in red-zone sets, so he could see situational snaps.
Fantasy/Bettor Tip: Humphrey’s status is super important! If he sits, Allen is likely to target the right sideline with Gabe Davis and vertical shots to stretch a weaker corner matchup.
Betting Angles & Market Insights
The betting history on the Ravens and the Bills gives us a pretty good read on how they handle spots like this one!
- Baltimore has gone 5–1 ATS in their last six road openers, which proves it usually starts out fast when it’s traveling.
- Buffalo is 7–2 ATS in its last nine games as a home favorite of fewer than three points, which matches up with this line.
- Ravens games usually push past the number, with 14 of their last 19 going over.
- The head-to-head says otherwise; 5 of the last 6 Ravens–Bills meetings have landed under.
- Early sharp bets leaned toward the Ravens on the moneyline.
- Public tickets are loading up on Buffalo, banking on Josh Allen in prime time.
- John Harbaugh is 11–2 straight up in Week 1 since 2019, and this is one of the league’s strongest opening-week records.
- Josh Allen is 5–0 straight up in September Sunday night starts; it’s just another game for him.
Our Best Bets
The Ravens–Bills line has been tight all week long, and the betting angles factors are coaching prep, roster shifts, and matchup history. Where do we think the best value is? These three wagers!
Best Bet #1: Ravens –130
Our Confidence Level: 7.5/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Market Movement: Baltimore opened as a small underdog, but early respected money has made them the favorite at –115. That’s a really strong signal of how bettors with influence see this matchup playing out.
- Week 1 Edge: John Harbaugh has made a career out of getting his team ready for season openers. He’s 11–2 in Week 1 since 2010, and his teams execute cleaner plays while others are still warming up.
- Lamar in Prime Time: Jackson has a 97.5 passer rating across night games, plus an average of 70 rushing yards in those spots. He has a track record of delivering when he’s on the biggest stage.
Roster Comparison
- Defense: Baltimore finished in the top five in scoring defense in 2024, and their pressure packages create a lot of problems for quarterbacks who hold the ball, like Allen.
- Offense: Derrick Henry gives the Ravens a short-yardage hammer, and the offensive line is healthier than it was during last year’s playoff run.
- Bills’ Transition: Without Stefon Diggs, Buffalo is asking Gabe Davis and rookie Jeremiah Bivens to step up into bigger roles. That’s not ideal in Week 1 against a defense that disguises coverages really well.
- Revenge Factor: Buffalo knocked Baltimore out of the postseason 27–25. The Ravens had a chance late, and this team has not forgotten it, and that’s some extra motivation right there.
Additional Note: Buffalo’s home field is harder to play on later in the year, but September conditions don’t give them the same advantage. Baltimore’s roster stability and playoff motivation make the moneyline the sharper side.
Best Bet #2: Under 50.5 Total Points (EVEN)
Our Confidence Level: 6.5/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Matchup History: Five of the last six Ravens–Bills games have stayed under. The lone exception, which was last year’s playoff game, landed at 52 after late scoring drives pushed it over.
- Week 1 Tendencies: Early in the year, offenses rarely hit their stride right away. Play-calling is pretty conservative, execution is uneven, and both defenses here are top-10 units by DVOA from 2024.
- Red Zone Regression: Both the Ravens and the Bills finished above league average in red-zone touchdown rate last year. That usually evens out, meaning more field goals and fewer sevens.
- Field Factor: They aren’t playing in a dome. Even a light breeze in Orchard Park has historically affected deep throws and kicking accuracy.
Additional Note: With the total sitting at 50.5, you’re asking for both teams to push past 25 points. Given Baltimore’s ground game and Buffalo’s WR turnover? This game has more signs of a mid-40s finish.
Bonus Prop Bet: Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown (+100 to +120 range)
Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
- Game Script Fit: Inside the 10-yard line, Baltimore will feed Henry, and he is built for short-yardage work and fits perfectly in their red-zone packages.
- Bills’ Interior Defense: Buffalo ranked 24th in yards per carry allowed between the tackles in 2024. That’s the exact area Henry exploits.
- First Impression: This is Henry’s first regular-season game as a Raven, so expect Harbaugh to feature him in scoring situations to set the scene for the season.
Strategic Betting Note
Pairing Ravens moneyline with the under in a same-game parlay pays around +230 to +250. That matches the projected script of a tight, grind-it-out contest, though playing them as singles gives more flexibility.
Should You Back Baltimore or Buffalo in Week 1?
Final Score Prediction: Baltimore Ravens 26, Buffalo Bills 23
We are backing Baltimore for the Sunday night game! Why? Because everything points to them winning, Lamar Jackson has the better protection, Derrick Henry can finish drives, and their defense has kept opponents under 20 points a game last season.
Buffalo still has Josh Allen, but the loss of Stefon Diggs? That completely changes how they stretch the field, and breaking in Gabe Davis plus rookie Jeremiah Bivens as primary targets in Week 1 is a problematic setup against a Ravens defense that rotates coverages and forces quarterbacks into checkdowns.
The best angles for this one? Take Baltimore on the moneyline and play the under!
Best Bets Recap
- Ravens Moneyline (–130): ★★★★☆
- Under 50.5 (EVEN): ★★★☆☆
- Bonus: Derrick Henry Anytime TD (+100 to +120): ★★★☆☆
Gear up for Sunday Night Football! Back your Ravens vs. Bills picks with confidence and get the best value using our top-rated sports betting sites.
