Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction & Top Bets (August 14, 2025)
The Phillies are on the road again after getting whooped by the Reds in Ohio (sorry, there’s no nice way to say that). They’re headed to DC to play the Nationals, and here’s hoping they don’t get blown out 0-8.
It’ll be a 4-game series, and the Phillies come in at 69–51, Washington is sitting at 48–72, and they continue to drop in the NL East standings.
Jesús Luzardo gets the nod for Philly, and he’s backed by a stronger lineup and bullpen. Brad Lord will face a team that has already tagged him once this season. There are playoff stakes in play and a more complete roster, so Philadelphia has the edge going into Game 1.
We’ve got all you need to know before the first game in the series, so keep reading for starting pitcher stats, the current betting odds, team form, trends, and our picks for the best bets and why we chose them!
Game Details
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (69-51) vs. Washington Nationals (48-72)
- Date & Time: Thursday, August 14, at 6:45 pm ET
- Location: Nationals Park, Washington, D.C.
- Weather Forecast: The forecast calls for clear skies, temps in the low 80s, and a little bit of wind blowing out to the left, and that’s good news for lefty hitters like Schwarber
- Broadcast: MASN (Nationals), NBC Sports Philadelphia (Phillies)
- Streaming: Available on MLB.tv with a subscription
Pitching Breakdown
The Phils are sending our southpaw Jesús Luzardo to start, and the Nats will counter with righty Brad Lord. Here’s how the two pitchers compare:
Jesús Luzardo (PHI – LHP):
- Record: 11–5 | ERA: 4.20 | WHIP: 1.35
- Strikeouts: 151 Ks in 133.2 IP
- Last Start: 6 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks vs. Texas (Aug. 9)
- Matchup Note: Luzardo handles right-handed-heavy lineups effectively; Washington doesn’t have a lot of left-handed power to challenge him here
Brad Lord (WSH – RHP)
- Record: 3–6 | ERA: 3.28 | WHIP: 1.21
- Strikeouts: 70 Ks in 85 IP
- Scouting Note: Lord starts games with a pretty decent command, but deeper into outings? Patient lineups push his pitch count and begin getting clean contact
- Previous Start vs PHI: 5 IP, 4 ER
Betting Odds & Market Snapshot
How’s the market looking for this game? Here’s what FanDuel has posted for the odds and lines:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Nationals |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -215 | +180 |
Run Line | -1.5 (-137) | +1.5 (+114) |
Total | Over 8.5 (-122) | Under 8.5 (+100) |
Market insight
- Heavy Action on Phillies: The public is heavily backing Philadelphia on both the moneyline and run line.
- Total Trending Down: Sharper bettors are leaning Under 8, which points to each starter’s recent outings and slightly cooler temps being projected at first pitch.
- Run Line Success: The Phillies have covered the run line in 7 of their last 9 wins.
Team Form & Trends
How have the Phillies and the Nationals been playing recently? And are there any notable trends? We’ve got the deets:
Philadelphia Phillies
- 7–3 in their last 10, and 4–1 against the Nats this year
- They’ve won 4 of 5 against Washington this season
- Bullpen ERA ranks top 5 in the league since the All-Star break
- Harper, Schwarber, and Turner have all raised their batting averages over the last two weeks and are squaring the ball up more often
Washington Nationals
- Only 3 wins in their last 10, and there’s been inconsistent production across the lineup
- James Wood (25 HR) and CJ Abrams have had good stretches, but the rest of the lineup? Not so much
- Batting under .240 as a team across the last 15 games
- Bullpen ERA sits in the bottom-6 across MLB in August
Historical Edge
- The Phillies have won 14 of the last 17 matchups against the Nationals
Our Best Bets
We’ve got your best bets! Look below for where we feel like the most value is; there are three that look pretty good, as well as a prop angle!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Phillies -215 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | Luzardo has the stronger pitch arsenal, and the Phillies’ order and bullpen give them the advantage. |
Phillies –1.5 (-137) | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Philadelphia has won by multiple runs in 7 of its last 9 wins, and matchups favor them. |
Under 8.5 (+100) | ⭐⭐ (2/5) | Luzardo neutralizes righties, and Lord has held his own in tough spots; cooler temps will also help here. |
Kyle Schwarber HR (+280) | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Schwarber faces a righty in a hitter-friendly setup and has a strong track record in this setting. |
Best Bets Breakdown
- Phillies ML: Philadelphia has the advantage in all areas: starter, bullpen, and lineup. Luzardo’s strikeout upside and the late-inning relief options make this worth the price.
- Phillies –1.5: If the offense connects early, there’s a clear path to a multi-run win. Washington just doesn’t have the arms to hold the line late in a game.
- Under 8: Cooler conditions and strike-throwing starters could limit early scoring. If both avoid free passes? The total stays in check.
- Kyle Schwarber HR: This is a good hitting environment, a favorable matchup, and there’s a righty starter with limited MLB experience. Schwarber can send one out with a lifted fastball.
The Phillies are Primed to Win
Final Score Prediction: Phillies 5, Nationals 2
As long as the Phillies don’t play like they did against the Reds, they should be good to win Game 1 in the opener of this series against the Nats.
Why? They have a big advantage in power, pitching, and they want to make it to the playoffs. Washington does have some really solid rookie talent, but it won’t be enough to make a dent in Philly’s lineup.
Luzardo will start off strong, and Schwarber will do what he does: hit the cr*p outta the ball. We are backing the Phillies for this one, and the best value is going with the Phillies ML and Run Line!
Best Bets Recap
- Phillies –215: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Phillies –1.5 (-137): ⭐⭐⭐
- Under 8.5 (+100): ⭐⭐
- Kyle Schwarber to Hit a Home Run (+280): ⭐⭐⭐
