Phillies vs. Dodgers Game 3 Prediction & Betting Picks (October 8, 2025)
It’s Game 3 of the NLDS, and the Phillies are in LA to take on the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium on Oct. 8 at 9:08 pm ET.
The Phillies are down bad; the series score is 2-0 Dodgers, and if LA wins Game 3? It’s a sweep that sends them to the NLCS. Not that the first two wins were easy; anything but. The games were close, but the Phils just couldn’t get it done in the late innings.
Two righties take the mound for both teams: The Dodgers are sending out Yoshinobu Yamamoto (not a surprise, that man throws a splitter like nobody’s business), and Aaron Nola is starting for Philadelphia.
Unsurprisingly, the market and odds are favoring LA slightly, but is there value in backing the road underdogs?
Let’s get into it with a breakdown of the game details, the betting odds and lines, starting pitcher stats, lineups, matchup angles, and what we think are the three best bets for Game 3!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Philadelphia Phillies (2-0) @ Los Angeles Dodgers (0-2)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, at 9:08 pm ET
- Location: Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
- Series: Dodgers are up 2–0
- How to Watch: TBS, truTV, HBO Max, and streaming on MLB.TV (U.S. feed)
- Weather: Temps are forecast to be around 70°F at first pitch, a little humidity and haze, and a slight breeze to the left.
Quick Context
In Game 1, LA’s bullpen held onto a lead while the Phillies’ Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner combined to go 1-for-10. And in Game 2, the Dodgers banged out a four-run seventh inning behind a Will Smith two-run single and extra hits from Teoscar Hernández and Shohei Ohtani to break a 0–0 deadlock. Philly cut the deficit to one with a two-run Nick Castellanos double, but the Dodgers held on.
Live Market Snapshot
Wanna put some money on Game 3? Here’s what DraftKings has posted for the odds and lines:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Dodgers |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | +148 | -181 |
Run Line | +1.5 (-145) | -1.5 (+118) |
Total | Over 8 (-103) | Under 8 (-118) |
Market Insight
DraftKings’ odds show there’s a belief in Yamamoto’s control and Los Angeles’s bullpen depth, but the narrow run line and total of 8 points? That means it’ll be a close, competitive matchup. Cooler air and the light marine layer in Chavez Ravine can keep fly balls from carrying, and that explains the modest total and the market’s hesitation to push it higher.
Starting Pitching Matchup
First up? We have to take a look at who’s pitching and why!
Aaron Nola (PHI): RHP
- 2025 Regular Season: 15–9, 3.58 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 197 K, 43 BB in 187 IP
- Pitch Mix: 4-seam fastball (92–94 mph), cutter, changeup, knifing curveball
- Postseason Experience: 13 career postseason starts; a 3.46 ERA.
- Recent Form: He posted a 2.41 ERA in September and has delivered at least six innings in 9 of his last 10 starts
What to Watch
- Nola has to hold right-handed bats (Freeman, Betts, and Hernández) to minimal damage
- His curveball command in early innings makes or breaks his swings-and-miss ability (≈ 37% whiff)
- Against a really disciplined Dodgers lineup (OBP ~.367 postseason), Nola cannot fall behind in counts
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD): RHP
- 2025 Regular Season: 17–5, 2.49 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 201 K, 38 BB
- Postseason Start: 0.00 ERA through 6.2 IP
- Pitch Mix: A four-seam fastball (~96 mph), curveball, and a splitter in the mid-80s
- Home vs Road Splits: 1.95 ERA at Dodger Stadium vs. 3.12 away
What to Watch
- Philadelphia’s left-handed hitters have to attack or mitigate the splitter before Yamamoto buries it
- He’s allowed only one home run during his last 44 innings
- He’s likely to be counted on for extended innings (7th at least, maybe more) to ease the bullpen’s burden
Pitching Edge
Yamamoto’s superior pitching command, the Dodgers’ home park success, and ability to limit long balls give Los Angeles the upper hand.
Lineups & Matchup Angles
Philly and LA both make heavy use of their top halves, but how they deal with the middle of the order could very well decide Game 3!
Philadelphia Phillies
- Top of Order: Schwarber, Turner, and Harper are a combined 5-for-23 in this series. The trio has reached base but hasn’t delivered with runners on.
- X-Factor: Nick Castellanos has tracked Yamamoto’s off-speed arsenal better than most in previous matchups and is still the likeliest source of hard contact from the right side.
- Team Notes: The Phillies have stranded 15 baserunners in the first two games. Manager Rob Thomson could push for more hit-and-run or first-to-third opportunities to create some scoring pressure.
- Key Stat: Since September, Philadelphia’s 48 percent fly-ball rate against right-handers ranks among the top five in MLB, and that trend could translate into extra-base power if the haze thins out by midgame.
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Top of Order: Betts (.417 this series), Freeman, and Ohtani continue to drive early production; Betts has gotten on base in five of his eight plate appearances.
- X-Factor: Teoscar Hernández is the most dangerous hitter in this matchup after two home runs in Game 1 and another RBI single in Game 2.
- Bench Depth: Muncy should get the nod at third base, and Rojas gives the Dodgers late-inning defense and situational flexibility.
- Key Stat: The Dodgers are 52–14 at home when they score first, and that shows how well they protect early leads in Chavez Ravine.
- Lineup Edge: Los Angeles maintains pressure from every spot in the order; its hitters work deep counts and adjust to sequencing. The combo of contact, gap power, and situational awareness forces opposing starters to elevate pitch counts and exposes middle relievers earlier than planned.
Recent Form & Series Texture
- Game 1: Dodgers 5, Phillies 3: Philadelphia struck first with a two-run triple by Realmuto and a sac fly from Bader. Los Angeles clapped back with a two-run double by Enrique Hernández in the 6th and a three-run homer by Teoscar Hernández in the 7th. Sasaki and Vesia allowed no runs in the 8th and 9th.
- Game 2: Dodgers 4, Phillies 2: Blake Snell fired six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. The Dodgers put together a four-run 7th, keyed by a Will Smith two-run single and runs from Hernández and Ohtani. In the 9th, Philadelphia had a tying chance with runners on, including Castellanos’ two-run double, but the Dodgers executed a “wheel play” on a Stott bunt, which put an end to that.
Narrative
The Phillies have loaded bases repeatedly, but haven’t been able to pull the trigger on hits when they needed to. Los Angeles has locked down critical innings and maneuvered reliever matchups to stifle Schwarber, Harper, and Turner.
Our Best Bets
And here’s what we are looking at in terms of the best bets for Game 3:
1) LA Dodgers -172 (Confidence 61%)
Wager Size: 1.0 unit
Why Do We Like It?
- Home-field dominance: The Dodgers are 32–7 in Yamamoto’s home outings, and that includes postseason games. He’s logged a 1.95 ERA at Dodger Stadium with a WHIP below 1.00, making him one of the best home starters in the MLB.
- Bullpen and lineup edge: Los Angeles has taken control of both series games from the seventh inning on, and Dave Roberts has been managing bullpen matchups around lefty-heavy sections of Philadelphia’s order.
- Phillies’ conversion issues: Philadelphia is 2-for-19 with runners in scoring position in two games. Unless they produce earlier in counts? Yamamoto can pitch into the seventh before handing it off to a rested relief unit.
- Game projection: A low-scoring Dodgers win around 3–1 or 4–2 fits both the current totals and moneyline logic.
- Bettor note: Limit exposure above –180. If the line climbs, shift to the Dodgers –1.5 (+125) to preserve payout value!
2) Under 8 (Confidence 58%)
Wager Size: 0.75 unit
Why Do We Like It?
- Pitcher-friendly setting: October evenings in Chavez Ravine decrease carry; postseason night games there have averaged about 7.2 combined runs since 2018.
- Starting pitcher reliability: Yamamoto has allowed one earned run or less in seven of his last eight starts. Nola’s September form (2.41 ERA) suggests that he can hold serve for six or more innings.
- Limited power output: The cooler air and both pitchers’ splitter-heavy repertoires suppress lift, which cuts down on barrel percentage.
- Trend support: Philadelphia has hit the under in 11 of its last 15 postseason road contests, and Los Angeles has stayed under in nine of its last 12 playoff home games.
- Bullpen alignment: All primary relievers (Sasaki, Vesia, Kerkering, and Strahm) are available.
- Bettor note: This is still playable at 7.5, but pass on it if it goes lower!
3) NRFI | No Run First Inning (Confidence 56%)
Wager Size: 0.5 unit (lean)
Why Do We Like It?
- Early command advantage: Yamamoto has a 0.63 ERA in the first innings this year; Nola is at 1.05. Both rank within MLB’s top 10 in that split.
- Slow offensive starts: The two teams have combined to go 2-for-22 (.091) in first-inning at-bats in this series.
- Plate approach: Betts and Schwarber usually extend counts, and that keeps early-inning traffic down.
- Bettor note: This is playable to –130. If conditions warm and the marine layer dissipates, trim your exposure to 0.25 units.
Odds for Phillies vs Dodgers Game 3 are already shifting. Track these line moves with our sports betting sites to secure the best value before first pitch.
Risk Factors: What Could Break the Bets
- Phillies HR surge: If either Schwarber or Harper finally square up a splitter or elevated four-seamer, one swing can erase an Under or shift a moneyline bet. Both hitters have combined for only one barrel in the series, but their pull power plays perfectly into Dodger Stadium’s right-field dimensions if Yamamoto misses spots up in the zone.
- Bullpen fatigue: Los Angeles relievers Vesia and Treinen have appeared in back-to-back games. Any early traffic could force Dave Roberts to lean on middle innings depth, which is where command variance is higher. A short rest window also ups the chance of one bad pitch turning into extra-base contact.
- Umpire zone: If the strike zone favors hitters low in the zone, Nola’s curveball loses its chase value, and that would push him into more fastball counts, giving Betts and Freeman the advantage in early sequences. A compressed lower zone usually inflates pitch totals for breaking-ball heavy starters.
- Yamamoto’s workload: Yamamoto has averaged just over 90 pitches per outing this postseason. If he gets yanked before the seventh inning, the Dodgers would have to bridge multiple innings with middle relievers who haven’t faced this part of the Phillies’ order yet. That introduces extra scoring volatility and directly threatens both the Under and the Dodgers’ moneyline positions.
Same-Game Parlay Angles (Optional for Bettors)
- Dodgers ML + Under 9.5
- Yamamoto 6+ Ks + Dodgers Win
- Teoscar Hernández to Record an RBI + Dodgers ML
All of the parlays build around a similar outcome, and that’s both starters keeping run totals down in early innings, minimal bullpen leakage, and Los Angeles using situational hitting to lock in the advantage in the final innings!
The Dodgers’ Depth Proves Too Much for the Phillies to Beat
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 4, Phillies 3
As a Philly fan, it pains me to type this sentence, but here goes: we are backing LA to sweep this series.
The Dodgers have most of the advantages in this matchup, as we’ve seen from the first two games. Yamamoto is unstoppable, the bullpen comes through in the late innings, and although the Phillies will keep it within a run, we can’t see them pulling out a win here.
It’ll come down to the wire, but ultimately, the Dodgers are gonna advance to the NLCS.
Best Bets Recap
- Dodgers ML (-172): ★★★★☆
- Under 8 (-114): ★★★★☆
- Lean NRFI: ★★★☆☆
