SE Palmeiras vs. Chelsea Betting Picks & Prediction (July 4, 2025)
Chelsea face Palmeiras in a quarterfinal with real bite. It’s Europe vs. South America, money vs. development, and Estêvão caught right in the middle; Palmeiras’ 17-year-old winger, who is set to join Chelsea next season, will be playing against the club that paid over €60 million for him. That’s not awkward or anything!
Chelsea relies on direct pace and midfield control. Nicolas Jackson leads the line with Palmer and Mudryk supporting on the flanks, and Enzo Fernández is in charge of distribution. They press in short bursts and push numbers forward when space opens, but they’ve had lapses defending central runs and had a hard time when dragged into wide overloads.
Palmeiras? They depend on midfield discipline and sharp movement in the final third. Raphael Veiga pulls defenders out of position, Estêvão isolates fullbacks one-on-one, and Rony makes near-post runs that force reactions. They don’t give opponents a lot of touches near the goal, but when pressure breaks down up top? They can get caught out reacting too late.
Keep scrolling to see all you need to know about this game; we’ve got head-to-head history, betting odds, stats, and our personal favs for the three best bets!
Match Details
- Matchup: SE Palmeiras vs. Chelsea
- Date & Time: Friday, July 4, at 9:00 p.m. ET (2:00 a.m. BST / 22:00 Brasilia Time)
- Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- How to Watch: Live streaming; DAZN (free global access); Radio commentary; talkSPORT in the UK
- Stakes: : Winner advances to the semifinal; both clubs want to move up in a revamped 32-team tournament
- Tournament Context: Quarter-Final, 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
Head-to-Head & History
The only prior meeting between SE Palmeiras and Chelsea? That ended 2–1 for Chelsea in the 2021 Club World Cup final.
But Brazilian teams have won 3 of 5 against European clubs in this competition’s history, so that has to be factored in!
Team Form & Key Players
Palmeiras are playing with stability and look really in sync; Chelsea are talented, have the bigger names, but are still piecing parts of their game together. Here’s how both have been playing lately, and the stars:
Palmeiras
They’ve kept 10 clean sheets in their last 14 and hardly ever leave the back line exposed. Estêvão Willian has been the star; he’s on the ball, fearless 1v1, and will be joining Chelsea once this tourney is over. Abel Ferreira’s system stays compact, and there are no major weak spots across the XI.
Chelsea
Pedro Neto has scored in three straight and gives them their best outlet in transition. Moisés Caicedo leads the midfield in ball recoveries but is out for this one due to a suspension. João Pedro was officially registered on July 3, and Liam Delap has started to break into the rotation with solid minutes off the bench.
Tactical Battles
Palmeiras close space super quickly inside the box, but they’re slower to react to wide overloads. Chelsea’s wide players will need to isolate defenders early and force mismatches.
Caicedo’s suspension changes Chelsea’s entire midfield dynamic. Without his coverage? Palmeiras can target second balls and push higher through the middle.
Estêvão knows what Chelsea’s tendencies are, but they’ll press him hard, and he won’t get a lot of time on the ball.
Betting Odds
What’s more fun than betting on a holiday? If you’re eyeing up this game, here are the latest betting odds and lines via FanDuel:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Palmeiras +290
- Draw +210
- Chelsea +100
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -104
- No -122
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (+110)
- Under 2.5 (-156)
Our Best Bets
Chelsea Moneyline (+100)
Confidence: ★★★★☆ (High)
Why do we like it?
Chelsea put four past Benfica and looked really good throughout the group stage. Without Caicedo, they still have enough support; Joao Pedro’s movement and Delap’s presence in attack are solid. They beat Palmeiras in the 2021 final, and models give them about a 75% chance of winning. They need an early strike, though. If they don’t? The Brazilian side will slow things down and defend from deep.
Over 2.5 Total Goals (+110)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
Why do we like it?
Chelsea’s last three games have averaged more than three goals. If they put pressure on Palmeiras, gaps will appear for quick transitions. Estêvão has the chops to spark a counter or two, and Chelsea’s pace on the break can exploit any space that’s left behind defenders. Watch for sharp opportunities right after the interval!
Liam Delap Anytime Goalscorer (+210)
Our Confidence Level: ★★★☆☆ (Moderate)
Why do we like it?
Delap should see time up front with the rotation. He’s really effective around the six-yard box and wins aerial duels. With set pieces in play and Palmeiras focused on Chelsea’s wide threats? Delap could definitely find a chance to score.
Palmeiras’ Grit vs. Chelsea’s Firepower
Final Score Prediction: Chelsea 2 – 1 Palmeiras
A coveted spot in the Club World Cup semifinals is up for grabs, and Chelsea has more finishing options and stronger individual matchups.
Yes, Palmeiras are organized at the back, but if they fall behind? They’ll be forced out of their shape, and that plays right into Chelsea’s hands!
We’re backing Chelsea on the moneyline and see value in over 2.5 goals. Estêvão can exploit gaps if Chelsea loses shape, but Delap has the positioning and movement to capitalize if Palmeiras start to fade.
Best Bets Recap
- Chelsea Moneyline (+105): ★★★★☆
- Over 2.5 Total Goals (+108): ★★★☆☆
- Liam Delap Anytime Scorer (+220): ★★★☆☆
