Palmeiras vs. Botafogo Prediction & Betting Picks (June 28, 2025)
Two Brazilian sides meet in the first knockout match of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, and although it’s on neutral territory in Philly, there is no love lost between the domestic rival clubs.
Palmeiras are at the top of Group A and have been playing with control and discipline. Botafogo shot to the top of Group B after an upset win over PSG.
The stars of this one? Estêvão and Igor Jesus. The right winger and striker will be front and center in the win-or-you-are-out game at Lincoln Financial Field.
Keep scrolling to read all about this matchup! We break down the betting odds, team forms, the players to watch, and what we think are the four best bets.
Match Details & Stakes
- Matchup: Palmeiras vs. Botafogo
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 28, at 12:00 pm ET / 9:00 AM PT / 5:00 pm BST
- Venue: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (Capacity ~67,594)
- Round: First knockout round (Round of 16) of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup
- Broadcast & Streaming: DAZN (U.S.): Free live streaming; TNT / truTV / Univision / TUDN: TV broadcast in the U.S.; bet365 (where available): Streaming service option
Latest Betting Odds
Here are the current betting odds and lines courtesy of FanDuel:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Palmeiras: +130
- Draw: +190
- Botafogo: +250
Both Teams to Score
- Yes (+106)
- No (-134)
Over/Under
- Over 2.5 (+132)
- Under 2.5 (-186)
Team Form & Tournament Journey
Palmeiras made it out of group play without a lot of trouble against opponents. Botafogo? They got to this stage with a surprise upset. One has been on point from the get-go, and the other made it by the skin of their teeth. Here’s a quick snapshot of both teams’ recent form:
Palmeiras
- Finished first in Group A with a tie against Inter Miami (2–2) and Porto (0–0)
- Gave up only one goal in three matches; kept opponents out of the box for long play periods
- Estêvão’s passing and movement have opened lanes without exposing the back line
Botafogo
- Secured second in Group B with a 1-0 win over PSG and a 2-1 result vs. Seattle
- Cabral and Correa have pushed the tempo and forced opponents to make mistakes in midfield
- Still prone to spacing problems between their back line and mids, which makes them vulnerable, but dangerous in transition when they get the ball high
Players to Watch
These are the players that we’ll be watching in this one!
- Estêvão (Palmeiras, 18): Leads the team in goals at this tournament. The young winger’s technical ability and acceleration have made him an absolute nightmare for fullbacks. Scouts from Chelsea are circling the teen, and this will be his biggest game so far.
- Igor Jesus (Botafogo): Jesus is the striker who stunned PSG with a late match-winner. He’s got a big physical presence on the field, is strong in the air, and really hard to get off the ball. He’s already signed with Nottingham Forest, but this is his last shot to deliver something major for Botafogo.
- Arthur Cabral (Botafogo): Cabral was recently brought in to improve Botafogo’s attack. He’s more mobile than Igor Jesus and really useful when dropping into space. If Botafogo needs a second-half change? Cabral is the one to watch.
Tactical Preview
Let’s talk tactics! Here’s what we think we’ll see in terms of gameplay:
- Palmeiras tends to keep a compact 4-2-3-1 shape, with Zé Rafael and Aníbal Moreno screening the back line. Expect them to slow the pace early on, recycle possession through Menino, and look to release Estêvão down the right once Botafogo’s fullbacks move forward.
- Botafogo will likely respond with a more conservative 4-4-2, and bank on Igor Jesus to pin defenders and create space for deeper runners like Tchê Tchê. They’ll try to disrupt Palmeiras’ rhythm by crowding the middle and forcing them wide.
- Don’t expect a wide-open start; both sides have defended really well all tournament. Palmeiras has conceded only once in three matches, and Botafogo has limited PSG to minimal chances.
- The turning point may come around the hour mark if fatigue sets in. That’s when Palmeiras’ bench, with options like Breno Lopes, can stretch Botafogo’s form and challenge their depth.
Best Bets
There are four angles that we think look pretty good for this one! Here are what we feel are the best bets:
| Pick | Confidence | Why We Like It |
|---|---|---|
Palmeiras to win | Medium-High | Controlled tempo vs Inter Miami and Porto, haven’t been beaten in months |
Under 2.5 goals | High | 7 of their last 10 combined matches ended with two goals or less |
Estêvão to score | Medium | Leads the team in shot volume, usually drifts into the box from the right side |
Botafogo to advance (win in regs/PKs) | Medium-Low | Took down PSG with a disciplined block and set-piece threat; are still live underdogs |
Palmeiras vs. Botafogo: Who Advances?
Palmeiras has had the better structure at the back, a more balanced midfield, and Estêvão as the difference-maker when the match opens up. They’ve beaten top opponents without conceding and don’t need a lot of chances to take control of a match.
Botafogo upset PSG and won the more physical battles in this tournament, but they’ve been more reliant on set pieces and individual moments.
We’re backing Palmeiras to edge it. Under 2.5 goals is still the clearest angle. If you’re looking for longer odds, Estêvão to score is worth a look.
Our Best Bets
- Palmeiras to Win; Confidence: Medium-High
- Under 2.5 Total Goals; Confidence: High
- Estêvão to Score Anytime; Confidence: Medium
- Botafogo to Advance (Regulation or PKs); Confidence: Medium-Low
Always bet responsibly, and you can check out our recs for the best sportsbooks here!
Final Score Prediction: Palmeiras 2 – 1 Botafogo
We expect we’ll see a close game, but Palmeiras has the advantage. They’ve shown better tournament composure, have a stronger defensive core, and Estêvão’s ability to break games open in the final third will clinch it!
