Epsom Derby 2025: Preview, Best Bets & Final Prediction
This year’s Epsom Derby doesn’t have a ready-made winner. The form is scattered, the trials have made it anyone’s race, and none of the leading names have done enough to take control of the market. And that’s what will make this such a good race!
Since 1780, the Derby has been the defining test for three-year-old colts in Britain. It’s the oldest of the five British Classics and, frankly, the one that still matters most. The course is tricky, so it’s not a test of outright raw speed or breeding. It’s a test of whether a horse can keep its balance down Tattenham Corner, settle when asked to, and find something late without needing everything to go its way.
Aidan O’Brien sends a strong group of horses, as expected. But there are several outside the top handful in the market who have shown the kind of temperament and stride that suit Epsom’s layout more than the early odds would suggest!
We’ll cover the horses that are well worth a second look, see where the betting holds interest, and name the runner we think is best set up to handle the full mile and a half! And we’re off!
Race Details
- Race: The Betfred Derby (Group 1)
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 7, at 3:30 pm (BST)
- Location: Epsom Downs Racecourse
- Distance: 1 mile, 4 furlongs, and 6 yards
- Surface: Turf
- Going: Good (forecasted)
- Prize Money: £1.5 million
Top 5 Contenders
The 2025 Epsom Derby field comes with form lines from several directions: Guineas, Leopardstown, York, and abroad. Below are the five horses that are in contention!
1. Delacroix (Trainer: Aidan O’Brien)
- Form: 212-11
- Odds: 9/4 favourite
Delacroix is coming off back-to-back wins in the Ballysax and the Derby Trial at Leopardstown, both of which were run with control and purpose. He’s handled ground variations, settles well, and has shown he can stay. Ryan Moore is expected to take the ride, and the yard has made no effort to play things down.
2. Ruling Court (Trainer: Charlie Appleby)
- Form: 1st in the 2,000 Guineas
- Odds: 9/2
Won the Guineas with a well-timed move and showed more balance than most expected him to. Stretching out to a mile and a half is the question, but if he settles early? His turn of foot gives him a chance to be involved late. No Guineas-Derby double since Camelot, but this one has earned the attempt.
3. Pride Of Arras (Trainer: Ralph Beckett)
- Form: Dante Stakes winner
- Odds: 5/1
Took control of the Dante and finished like a horse that was still learning. Beckett has brought him along with patience, and the York effort suggests there’s more to come. Handles a strong pace, travels gracefully, and doesn’t need perfect conditions to run well.
4. The Lion In Winter (Trainer: Aidan O’Brien)
- Form: Acomb Stakes winner; 6th in Dante
- Odds: 6/1
Looked the part last season and was the early Derby favourite until the Dante, where he never looked like he settled. Still has backing from the yard and has worked well since, so if he puts the pieces back together? He’s not far off the rest.
5. Midak (Trainer: Francis Graffard)
- Form: 3 wins from 3 starts
- Odds: 14/1
Supplemented for £75,000, which says a lot. Unraced outside France but has been brought up with care. The style is there; he’s tactically sound, travels on the bridle, and the connections clearly feel that he belongs here. A wildcard, but definitely not without merit.
Betting Odds
According to Racing Post, here are the current odds for the contenders:
- Delacroix – 9/4
- Ruling Court – 4/1
- Pride Of Arras – 4/1
- The Lion In Winter – 6/1
- Damysus – 10/1
- Lambourn – 12/1
- Midak – 14/1
- Stanhope Gardens – 16/1
- Nightwalker – 20/1
- New Ground – 20/1
Best Bets
The market is unsettled heading into Derby Day, and that leaves some wiggle room for a few firm positions. Here are what we think are the best bets!
Win Bet: Delacroix
Delacroix’s trial runs have been measured and professional. O’Brien has him coming in right, and with Moore likely up, there won’t be hesitation on tactics. Barring traffic, he looks like the most reliable option over the full trip.
Each-Way Bet: Pride Of Arras
Won the Dante Stakes with control and didn’t need heavy urging to stay on. Traveled well, responded when asked, and is built like a colt who’ll handle the extra distance without any issue. If the race runs true, he should be in the frame.
Longshot: Midak
Unbeaten but untested at this level, so the decision to supplement didn’t come lightly. He travels like a proper colt and could find his way into the frame if the race turns tactical. Midas is one to include at a price.
Final Verdict: Who Will Wear the Epsom Derby Crown?
Final Prediction
– Winner: Delacroix
– Runner-up: Pride Of Arras
– Sleeper/Longshot: Midak could possibly finish in the money at a big priceDon’t forget to always gamble responsibly! Odds can change as the race nears, so check for the latest on your sportsbook.
Because there isn’t a distinct separation among the top contenders, this year’s Epsom Derby needs a measured view. The trials did give us some glimpses, but there are no guarantees, and several runners arrive with legit claims depending on how the race unfolds.
Delacroix comes with the right combo: back-to-back trial wins, a proven trainer, and a rider who knows how to manage the course. He’s been brought along steadily and looks really well suited to the demands of this trip.
Pride of Arras comes in off a strong Dante performance. He settled early, moved with purpose, and finished without his tank on empty. If he finds a similar rhythm at Epsom, he’ll be in contention during the final stretch.
Midak is still the most interesting outsider. Three from three, supplemented by connections who don’t tilt at windmills, and has yet to show what his ceiling is. He could run into the places, or he could upend the whole thing if the race goes tactical.
Track conditions will matter. If the ground shifts, some of the bigger prices will look better. But on form, on balance, and on preparation? Delacroix is the pick.
2025 Belmont Stakes Preview & Best Bets
Saratoga always hosts the Belmont Stakes, and although there isn’t a Triple Crown in play, the field of horses will still be a sight to behold.
We’ve got the Derby winner. We’ve got the Preakness winner. And they’re running against each other in the final jewel of the series. Sovereignty and Journalism, the two horses who’ve already proven that they belong, will now meet at a shorter distance, on a different track, and with new challengers nipping at their hooves.
Keep scrolling for all of the Saratoga Springs details, including who’s running, who’s out in front, and our picks for the best bets!
Event Details: What You Need to Know
- Date & Time: Saturday, June 7, 2025, at 7:04 pm ET
- Location: Saratoga Race Course, Saratoga Springs, NY
- Distance: 1¼ miles (shortened due to Belmont Park renovations)
- Purse: $2 million
- Broadcast: FOX and the FOX Sports app
The Contenders: Who’s in the Running?
There’s a ton of depth here. We’ve got headline-making horses, and horses with different running styles, proven back-class, and some big barns backing them.
- Sovereignty (2-1): Derby winner. Trained by Bill Mott. Skipped the Preakness by design to keep him fresh for this race.
- Journalism (8-5): Winner of the Preakness. Trained by Michael McCarthy. The only one of the group to run all three Triple Crown races, and he’s kept his form beautifully.
- Baeza (4-1): Third in the Derby, running on well late. John Shirreffs brings him in with a steady hand and a good prep.
- Rodriguez (6-1): Missed the Derby with a bruised foot but looked great in training at Saratoga. Previously took the Wood Memorial with ease.
- Hill Road (10-1): Won the Peter Pan with a clean trip and has a stalking style that fits this field.
- Heart of Honor (30-1): Brit-bred longshot with not much North American form, but connections are confident that he’ll be able to handle the distance.
- Crudo (15-1): Comes from Todd Pletcher’s barn. Might appreciate the cutback in the trip.
- Uncaged (30-1): Also from Pletcher. Hard to gauge, as he’s never been up against a field that’s this strong.
Race Analysis: Breaking Down the Field
The distance drop to 1¼ miles levels the playing field a little bit, but Saratoga’s deep surface can still penalize the horses who move too early.
- Sovereignty likes to settle in early and come with one sustained run. He’ll need a clean trip and a bit of pace up front to get the setup that he wants.
- Journalism is more flexible; he’s shown he can press the pace or take back and close. That kind of versatility gives his rider more options in a big field.
- Baeza has a grinding, late-run style. If it turns into a dogfight in the final furlong, he’ll be right up there.
- Rodriguez could go forward early to stay out of trouble. He has enough tactical speed to sit just off the leaders and pounce on the turn for home.
- Hill Road is the wild card; he’ll be within striking range but might need others to come back to him.
Best Bets: Our Top Picks
Who do we have for best bets? Look below!
- Win Bet: Rodriguez (6-1): Skipped the earlier legs of the Triple Crown and comes in prepared for this race. His prep was strong, and he’s been gliding over the Saratoga surface.
- Exacta Box: Sovereignty / Journalism: Two proven closers with the class and timing to outkick the rest down the stretch.
- Trifecta: Sovereignty / Rodriguez / Baeza: A trio that combines strong finishes, tactical position, and endurance.
- Longshot Play: Hill Road (10-1): If the pace collapses up front, he’ll be in a good position to make a late run and catch what’s left.
Betting Tips: How to Wager Smart
Belmont Day draws a lot of attention, which means there’s more money in the pools and bigger changes in the odds! Concentrate on the structure, don’t wager with only your emotions, and follow the betting tips below:
- Decide your budget ahead of time. Set a limit and treat it like it’s a fixed cost, not something that you’d change mid-card.
- Don’t rely on one outcome. Use combos, like win bets backed by exactas or trifectas! It gives you extra ways to stay in the race.
- Pay attention to how the board moves late. When a horse from a proven barn starts taking late money, there’s usually a good reason behind it.
The best odds aren’t always posted early, so wait until the market settles and act when the price lines up with your read on the race! Check out our recommendations for the top horse betting apps to find the latest odds.
Festival Highlights: Not Just a Horse Race
Saratoga Springs is a gorgeous place, and the horse race isn’t the only thing happening! It’s a full slate of events that are all tied to New York’s racing tradition, food, fashion, and entertainment. There are a lot of fun events around the track leading up to the Belmont if you want to make a trip out of it!
June 4–8: The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival
- New York Showcase Day features six $200,000 stakes for state-breds.
- Commemorative Hat Giveaway for the first 10,000 attendees.
- “Belmont on Broadway” Concert with the Gin Blossoms and Uprooted in downtown Saratoga.
- Steeplechase Racing highlighted by the Grade 1 Beverly R. Steinman.
- Grade II and Grade III Stakes, like the Intercontinental and Poker Stakes.
- Top-Level Friday Card including the Acorn, Ogden Phipps, New York Stakes, Just a Game, and the Belmont Gold Cup.

- On-Site Tastings from Redemption Bourbon, Mionetto Prosecco, and other trackside vendors.
- Belmont Stakes Day Headliners: Metropolitan Handicap, Jaipur, Manhattan, Woody Stephens.
- West Point Band Performances with live music and a parachute display during the anthem.
- Fashion Photo Contest hosted near the Jockey Silks Porch.
- Track Giveaway of limited-edition enamel pins for early arrivals.
- Live Music Throughout the Week, including acts like Nymbis and Ill Funk on the Purdy’s Music Stage.
- Food & Drink: There’s a bespoke “Bel-Mint Stakes” ice cream flavor that’ll be available trackside; it’s a minty vanilla with chocolate chips and bourbon swirl. That sounds fattenin,g but in a delicious way!
Not bad for a race that’s built around a 2,000-pound animal and two minutes of thundering hooves tearing up the dirt.
Final Verdict: Our Belmont Stakes 2025 Predictions
You might think it is, but Belmont isn’t a two-horse race. Sovereignty got the job done at Churchill, and Journalism has held it together during a hard spring. But Rodriguez isn’t here by accident; he skipped the first two for a reason and has been working like this was always the target.
Our Final Prediction
Sovereignty passed on the Preakness and has been pointed here with no interruption. His gallops at Saratoga have looked graceful and smooth, his energy’s been consistent, and nothing in his prep suggests any kind of regression. If he finds position early and avoids the traffic, he’s the one most likely to finish in front!
– Win Bet: Sovereignty at 8-5 odds; he sat out the middle leg and comes in off a steady prep. He’s handled Saratoga well, looked strong in the mornings, and has the right running style for this group.
– Exacta Box: Sovereignty / Journalism: Reliable closers with strong resumes and riders who know how to time a move.
– Trifecta: Sovereignty / Rodriguez / Baeza: Balanced mix of tactical runners and late pace.
– Longshot Play: Hill Road (10-1): Stalks well, doesn’t waste energy, and can move past fading runners if the front bunch stretches out too early.
– Keep your eye on the board! Late movement can signal interest from connections who know where their horse stands.
– Mix your plays. A straight win bet isn’t always the best option; using exactas or trifectas will help you cover more ground.
– Set your number early. Decide what you’re spending, and don’t move the goalposts once you start betting.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Coco Gauff Prediction (June 7, 2025) – Roland Garros Women’s Final
And then there were two. Facing off in the French Open finals are the No. 1 and 2 tennis players in the world, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.
Neither player has claimed the La Coupe des Mousquetaires, and both want that trophy and the Grand Slam title. But who wants it more? And which one will be Queen of the Roland Garros clay? We are gonna break it all down for you and give you our best bets for the Women’s Final!
Match Details
- Event: 2025 French Open Women’s Singles Final
- Date: Saturday, June 7
- Start Time: 3:00 pm local time (9:00 am ET)
- Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
- Broadcast: : TNT Sports, Discovery+
Match Overview
No matter who wins, this is going to be some good tennis. No. 1 vs. No. 2? One of these women is going to get her first French Open title!
- The first French Open final meeting between Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff
- Sabalenka (No. 1) comes in hot after defeating three-time champ Iga Świątek in the semis
- Gauff (No. 2) is chasing her second career Grand Slam after winning the 2023 US Open
- Head-to-head is dead even: 5-5—no clear edge, no mental advantage
- Sabalenka has never won in Paris, but this is her third Slam final in two years
- Gauff returns to the Roland Garros final after falling short here in 2022
- Expect a ton of baseline exchanges, huge first serves, and long rallies
- Emotions play a big role in finals. Sabalenka and Gauff kill the ball, but the latter has been historically calmer in important points
Head-to-Head Snapshot
- Total Meetings: 10
- Record: Tied at 5-5
- Recent Encounter: Sabalenka beat Gauff in straight sets at the 2025 Madrid Open Final
- Grand Slam Finals: Gauff is ahead 1-0; she beat Sabalenka in the 2023 US Open Final
Player Insights
The final pits two very different clay-court approaches against each other. Sabalenka has a lot of raw power and first-strike aggression, and Gauff does too! But Coco also relies on court coverage, anticipates defensive hits, and has the ability to drag out points.

Aryna Sabalenka
- Current Ranking: World No. 1
- 2025 Grand Slam Results: Finalist at the Australian Open; now in her second Slam final of the year
- Last Match: Beat Iga Świątek in straight sets, breaking Świątek’s 26-match French Open win streak
- Clay Court Record (2025): Strong overall, including a Madrid title and multiple deep tournament runs
- Game Style: Heavy power from both wings, aggressive return game, big-serving
- Headspace Going In: Still after her first Roland Garros title, but her confidence looks solid after she won the semifinal

Coco Gauff
- Current Ranking: World No. 2
- 2025 Grand Slam Results: First Slam final this year; second career final in Paris
- Last Match: Took out Loïs Boisson in a little over an hour in straight sets, 6–1, 6–2
- Clay Court Record (2025): Reliable all spring with solid results and no major dips
- Game Style: Speed, defense, and consistency from the baseline; serve has gotten much better
- Headspace Going In: Already a Grand Slam champion, focused and composed in high-pressure moments
Betting Odds
If you’re putting some money down on the Women’s Final, here are the latest odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings:
| Team | Spread (Games) | Moneyline | Total Games |
|---|---|---|---|
Aryna Sabalenka | -3.5 (-105) | -200 | Over 22.5 (-105) |
Coco Gauff | +3.5 (-130) | +150 | Under 22.5 (-130) |
Best Bets
A lot could happen between these two powerhouses, but here is what we think are your best bets for the Women’s Final:
- Sabalenka to Win (-200) | Sabalenka beat Gauff in straight sets weeks ago in Madrid, 6–4, 6–3, and she used heavy kick serves and early ball-striking to take time away. She backed that up by dismantling Świątek, who until now owned the clay at Garros, by pinning her behind the baseline. Unless her error count suddenly spikes? Sabalenka should be able to control most of the rallies.
- Over 22.5 Total Games (-105) | Five of their last seven matches have gone over this number. Even in two-setters, they push into longer games with extended deuces, tough holds, and 7–5 or 7–6 scorelines. Gauff’s ability to neutralize pace and chase down wide angles forces Sabalenka to work for every single hold. A three-set match wouldn’t surprise us at all.
- Sabalenka to Win 2-1 (+260) | This will not be a blowout. Gauff’s return game has been great during the whole tournament; she’s broken serve in over 45% of her return games at Roland Garros this year. She’ll most likely get a set if Sabalenka’s first serve wobbles or her aggression causes her to overhit. But over the course of three sets, Sabalenka’s heavier game should wear Gauff down.
Betting Strategy
If you look at how Sabalenko and Gauff have been playing recently and they’re competitive history, a combo of bets could be a triple threat:
- Primary Bet: Sabalenka to Win (-200)
- Value Bet: Sabalenka to Win 2-1 (+260)
- Over/Under Bet: Over 22.5 Total Games (-105)
Sabalenka vs. Gauff: What to Expect
Sabalenka enters this final coming off the biggest win of her clay season. She won in straight sets over Świątek, held serve under pressure, and hit through one of the best defenders in the game. She’s been flattening out her forehand, sticking her backhand crosscourt so it lands deep, and putting herself in position to finish off points early.
Gauff hasn’t been up against the same level of play on her way through the draw, but she’s done her job and then some, winning in straight sets, moving really well, and avoiding the extended matches that have worn her out in the past. Her serve is holding up better than it did in previous Slams, and she’s been way more disciplined with her forehand, cutting back on errors from that side. Coco has always been a fighter!
Our Final Match Prediction
– Aryna Sabalenka def. Coco Gauff 2-1 in sets
Sabalenka’s power gives her the advantage, but Gauff’s defense and discipline will make her earn every point. This one’s not ending in two sets.
From a betting perspective, Sabalenka is priced at -200 for good reason; she has the heavier game and has been more battle-tested in big-match moments this season. But Gauff’s defense and fight might make this a long match.
We’d say that the best angle is probably the Over 22.5 games (-105), especially if Gauff stretches one set into a tiebreak or forces a third. Sabalenka 2–1 (+260) also has value if you think Gauff can stay in rallies long enough to take a set, but not the match.
It’s gonna be a physical, emotional final with long baseline exchanges and pressure on every hold. Sabalenka will try to hit on her terms. Gauff will make her hit one more ball. Their different playing styles is why this matchup has been dead even in their 10 career meetings, and it’s why this one could end up being a marathon of a match.
Make sure to watch the line movement before the first serve! If the price on Gauff goes up, the value only gets better for those who are expecting it to go to three sets.
Stay on top of the latest odds with one of the top online sportsbooks. You can also find generous bonuses to help your wagers go even further.
What Is Implied Probability in Sports Betting? (And Why It Matters)
You’ve heard the expression “read between the lines,” right? Did you know that with implied probability, you can read between the odds in sports betting? You can!
The odds are more than the numbers that show you what a bet pays. They’re giving you clues as well, like how probable a sportsbook thinks that outcome is. They don’t just set lines for funsies. Oddsmakers are building in probability, risk, and margin. And if you know how to translate those odds into actual percentages? You can see what the book sees!
That’s all implied probability is—a way to take any set of odds and turn them into a number you can work with. Once you start using it, you’ll have a much better sense of if a bet makes sense, if the line offers value, and how often you have to win to break even.
We are gonna unpack the ins and outs of implied probability; what it means, how to calculate it for different odds formats, and how to apply it to your betting strategy. We’ll also go over real examples from recent games, show you how you can better spot value, and flag the common mistakes that trip up a lot of bettors!
What Is Implied Probability?
Implied probability is the percentage chance of something happening based on the odds that the sportsbook gives you. It’s not a guess or a feeling—it’s what the odds are really saying underneath.
If a team is listed at -200, that means the sportsbook believes they win about two out of every three times, or roughly 66.7%. If they’re +150, that suggests a 40% chance. Different odds, different expectations. What you’re doing is turning those odds into a percentage so you can compare it to your own prediction.
Why do sportsbooks care about implied probability? Because it’s how they build lines, and, of course, profit. The odds show what they think will happen, plus a little extra baked in to protect themselves. That extra? It’s called the vig, and it’s their margin. When you add up the implied probabilities for all possible outcomes in a market, it usually totals more than 100%. And that’s how they stay ahead.
It’s also why knowing implied probability matters for bettors! If the odds say that a team has a 60% chance to win but you think it’s closer to 70%, there’s value. You’ve found an opening between what the book thinks and what you believe. And that’s where smart bets are.
Look below for a cheat sheet that shows how common moneylines translate into implied probability:
| Odds (American) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
-200 | 66.7% |
-110 | 52.4% |
+100 | 50.0% |
+150 | 40.0% |
+200 | 33.3% |
Once you know how to convert odds into percentages, it’s so much easier to see if the numbers make sense, or if the line is off just enough to be worth your money!
How to Calculate Implied Probability From Odds
To get the implied probability from any odds, you use a formula, and the formulas all depend on the odds format (American, decimal, or fractional):
- Decimal odds: Implied % = 100 ÷ (Decimal odds).
- Example: Odds of 2.50 mean 100/2.50 = 40.0%.
- Example: Odds of 2.50 mean 100/2.50 = 40.0%.
- American odds (positive): Implied % = 100 ÷ (Odds + 100) × 100.
- Example: +150 means 100/(150+100)×100 = 40.0%.
- Example: +150 means 100/(150+100)×100 = 40.0%.
- American odds (negative): Implied % = Odds ÷ (Odds + 100) × 100 (using the absolute value of the number).
- Example: –150 means 150/(150+100)×100 = 60.0%.
Putting these formulas into practice looks like this:
- Negative odds: odds / (odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability
- Positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100) × 100 = implied probability
This reference table can help you visualize the most common conversions:
| Odds (American) | Implied Probability | Odds (Decimal) | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
+100 | 50.0% | 2.00 | 50.0% |
-100 | 50.0% | 1.50 | 66.67% |
+150 | 40.0% | 3.00 | 33.33% |
-150 | 60.0% | 1.20 | 83.33% |
+200 | 33.3% | 2.50 | 40.00% |
-200 | 66.67% | 1.25 | 80.00% |
The conversion shows that decimal 2.50 is 40.0%, and American +200 is 33.3%, and it works out the same as the formulas above. If you’re comfortable with fractions, the fractional odds formula is (denominator/(numerator + denominator))×100. But in the U.S. markets, you’ll mostly use decimal or American. The important thing is always to double-check the math so you know exactly what chance the odds imply.
Why Implied Probability Matters to Bettors
If you’ve ever looked at a betting line and wondered, “Is that actually a good price?”—you’re l halfway there to getting why implied probability matters!
Once you translate odds into a percentage, you’re not hypothesizing anymore. You’re comparing. You can see if a line reflects reality, or if it’s skewed just enough to give you an edge. That’s how sharp bettors spot value.
The following is how implied probability helps:
- It lets you measure value so you can directly compare the odds to your own projected probabilities. If there’s an imbalance, you might have yourself a +EV bet.
- It exposes mispriced lines. Not all sportsbooks nail the number. If you’re tracking line movement or working with your own models, you’ll see the places where the market is off.
- It helps find positive expected value (+EV) bets. Instead of randomly betting on underdogs or favorites, you’ll be betting where the math says you’ve got an advantage.
- It cuts out emotion. No more betting based on instinct or team loyalty. You’re backing the numbers, not the narratives.
- It opens up strategies like arbitrage and hedging. When you know how to read probability across multiple books? You can find holes and use them to your advantage.
If you’re trying to bet more seriously, this is one of the most important tools you can add to your playbook. Odds give you more than payouts; they give you good insight. And implied probability is how you read it.
Implied Probability vs. True Probability
Ok, this part is really interesting. Implied probability tells you what the sportsbook thinks the chance of something happening is, including their built-in margin. True probability is what you believe the real chances are, based on your own analysis.
And these two are rarely the same.
If a sportsbook sets odds at -150 on a team, it implies a 60% chance of winning. But maybe you’ve done your homework and dug into matchups, injuries, weather, historical trends, and you think it’s closer to 68%.
That difference really matters. You know that they’re underestimating the team. That’s where the value is!
Here’s a side-by-side to show how that would play out:
| Implied by the Book | Your Estimate | |
|---|---|---|
Odds | -150 | N/A |
Implied Probability | 60.0% | 68.0% |
Bet Size | $100 | $100 |
Payout if Right | $66.67 | $66.67 |
Expected Value | — | +$6.67 |
That extra 8% edge turns what looks like a standard bet into one with positive EV. It might not seem like a lot, but over hundreds of bets? It adds up.
How to Use Implied Probability in Your Betting Strategy
Once you know how to break down odds into implied probability? You aren’t just reacting to lines—you’re evaluating them. You aren’t randomly guessing which team feels like the better pick. You’re comparing what the book is saying to what you believe will happen.
Below is how to put it into practice with your betting strategy!
Value Betting
The most direct use of implied probability is to spot value, aka bets, where you think the real chance of winning is higher than the odds suggest.
Start by calculating the implied probability from the odds. Then, compare that to your own estimated probability for the same outcome. If your number is higher? You’ve found a bet with potential value!
Use this formula to check:
- Value = (Your estimated probability × odds) – 1
If the result is positive, you’ve got a bet worth considering. Here’s a quick example:
• The odds are +150 (which implies a 40% chance).
• You believe the team has a 50% chance of winning.
• Decimal odds of +150 = 2.50Now plug that in:
• (0.50 × 2.50) – 1 = 0.25, or +25% expected value
That’s a good bet on paper!
Bankroll Management
Implied probability also helps you figure out which bets you should pass on. If the odds imply a higher chance than what you believe is realistic, it’s probably not worth your money. Betting into low-value markets, even if they’re favorites, is how you burn through your bankroll.
Use implied probability as a filter. If a line doesn’t make sense after the math? Pass. You’re not trying to bet more, you’re trying to bet better.
Live Betting Adjustments
Live betting moves fast, and odds are updating in real-time. Implied probability is a good way to hone in without distractions.
If you’re watching a football game and a team’s odds change from -150 to +110 after a turnover, the swing changes the implied probability from 60% down to 47.6%. If you think the market is overreacting, and the team still has, say, a 55% chance to win? There could be value there.
You can apply the same logic to props, cross-sport parlays, and player markets. Instead of chasing bets because they “feel right,” pay attention to the numbers that tell you where the edge is.
Examples: Implied Probability in Action
The best way to make implied probability concrete is to see it in action! Below are three examples of games and their odds

NFL
In Week 10 of the 2024 season, the Panthers beat the Giants 20–17 despite being big underdogs. New York was installed at –275 on the moneyline (implying about a 73.3% chance), and Carolina was +220 (about 31.3% chance). The odds suggested the Panthers had only a ~31% likelihood of winning. But they pulled off the upset.
If a bettor had risked $100 on Carolina (+220), the profit would have been $220 (for a total payout of $320). This shows you how implied probabilities frame an upset, and how punters can see the value in taking the points or the moneyline if they disagree with the odds.

NBA
On Jan 2, 2024, the Charlotte Hornets beat the Sacramento Kings, even though Charlotte was a 15.5-point underdog. At the time, the Hornets were +1300 on the moneyline (about a 7.1% implied chance), meaning that a $100 win bet would pay $1,300 profit. Despite the long odds, Charlotte won the game. The huge upset boldly underlines that a low implied probability doesn’t mean an impossible outcome; it just means a big payout if you’re right.
Different Books, Different Odds
Odds are different from sportsbook to sportsbook, which changes the implied probability.
FanDuel had Jacksonville at +176 (36.2% implied) vs. BetMGM at +165 (37.7% implied). That 11-cent difference in the moneyline? It changes the implied chance. If you believe Jacksonville has, say, a 40% true win probability, the FanDuel line would give positive expected value, and the BetMGM line would not. Watching multiple books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc.) lets bettors hunt for advantages by spotting the odds discrepancies.
Across the above examples, the formula holds: implied probabilities turned large betting lines into clear percentages. In each case, the underdogs had low implied chances (around 7–36%) but still won. When you compute the implied odds, you are able to quantify just how much of a surprise an upset was.
5 Common Mistakes Bettors Make with Implied Probability
Even if you understand implied probability, there’s still a big margin for error! The following are the most common mistakes bettors make.
Ignoring the Vig/Overround
A really common error is forgetting that the implied probabilities sum to more than 100%. This book edge means you can’t treat implied probabilities as “true” chances. Always remember that the excess percentage is the sportsbook’s cut.
Mixing Formats Incorrectly
Be really careful converting! Using the wrong formula for the wrong odds, like treating American odds as if they were decimal, will give you garbage. Double-check: use 100/(decimal) for decimal odds, and the formulas above for American.
Not Shopping for Odds
Different books (FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, etc.) all offer slightly different odds, and not comparing them can cost you value. Even a few cents on the dollar changes the implied probability by a percentage point or two.
Overvaluing Implied Probability
Remember that implied probability is based on the bookie’s assessment plus vig—it’s not your personal evaluation. For that reason, implied probability ≠ true probability. Don’t confuse the two, and always use your own judgment when you have an advantage in knowledge.
Ignoring Context
Odds are always changing because of injuries, weather, or betting volume. Always use the current odds when calculating implied probability. Old odds (like early-season futures) might not show the latest info!
Tools That Help You Calculate Implied Probability Instantly
You don’t have to be a mathematical whiz to run the numbers or mess with formulas every time you check a line. There are tools that do it for you!
We have our own Betting Odds Calculator. Just drop in American, decimal, or fractional odds, and it’ll instantly show you the implied probability, potential payout, and profit. Doesn’t matter if you’re checking a single line or comparing across sportsbooks—it saves time and eliminates errors.
And if you’re building a full-on strategy, you can use that in combination with our AI-powered betting pick tools. They estimate true win probability based on team stats, market movement, and historical trends. Then you can compare your number to the sportsbooks and see where there’s an edge.
We have more tools that will help your strategy on our Sports Betting Tools page! Here’s what they include:
- The Odds Converter / Implied Probability Calculator
- Expected Value Calculator
- Line Shopping Tools
- AI Predictions
- Parlay Value Breakdown
If you’re really serious about betting with data, our tools should be a part of your regular routine!
Conclusion: Don’t Just Bet—Bet with the Math on Your Side
Every set of odds tells a story, but they aren’t written in plain language. Implied probability helps you translate those stories into something you can use, like how confident the sportsbook is, how much margin they’ve built in, and where there might be an opening.
You aren’t chasing longshots or fading the public. No, you’re measuring value with numbers and building a strategy around percentages, not guesstimates. And that’s how you build a real betting strategy! It’s all in the math.
Here’s a brief recap of all things implied probability and how it works in sports betting:
- Odds show you how likely an outcome is, according to a sportsbook.
- You can break any odds format into implied probability using simple math.
- Comparing that to your own projections helps you find underpriced bets.
- Using calculators and tools keeps your process clear and consistent.
- When you use implied probability, you’re betting with a plan, not just reacting impulsively or emotionally.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Dallas Wings Betting Prediction (June 6, 2025)
The Sparks and Wings go into Friday night’s game with similar problems: three straight losses and a season that’s getting away from them.
Los Angeles is 2–6 and coming off another late-game collapse. Dallas is 1–7 and still hasn’t figured out how to finish games with any resemblance of structure. The Sparks rely on perimeter shooting. The Wings play fast, get to the rim, and rebound well, but they haven’t defended for a full four quarters.
The main variable is Paige Bueckers. She remains questionable with a concussion. If she’s cleared? The Wings gain a decision-maker, and their half-court offense will look totally different.
Game Details
- Matchup: Los Angeles Sparks (2-6) vs. Dallas Wings (1-7)
- Date & Time: Friday, June 6, at 9:30 pm ET
- Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
- Broadcast: ION
- Betting Odds (via ESPN BET): Dallas Wings favored by 1.5 points; Over/Under set at 164.5 points
Team Overviews
The Sparks rely on guard scoring and outside shooting, but are short in the frontcourt. Dallas rebounds well and scores in the paint, but without Bueckers? Their half-court offense is stagnant in late possessions.
Los Angeles Sparks (Record: 2–6)

Key Players
- Kelsey Plum: 22.9 PPG, 4.8 APG
- Azurá Stevens: 9.3 RPG
- Dearica Hamby: 8.0 RPG
Recent Performance
- Lost 85–80 to Phoenix on June 1
- Scored 80+ for the fourth time this season
- Gave up a 25–14 fourth quarter
- Struggled defending pick-and-roll action down the stretch
- Hit 9 threes but allowed 12 offensive rebounds
Dallas Wings (Record: 1–7)

Key Players
- Arike Ogunbowale: 16.1 PPG
- Myisha Hines-Allen: 6.4 RPG
- Paige Bueckers: 14.7 PPG, 6.7 APG (questionable)
Recent Performance
- Lost 83–77 to Seattle on June 3
- Ogunbowale scored 21 but shot 6-for-19
- Bueckers missed the game due to concussion protocol
- Gave up 15 offensive boards and shot only 31% from three
- Turned the ball over 17 times
Statistical Comparison
The numbers show two teams that can score, but neither one is defending well. The Wings rebound slightly better and shoot more efficiently from the field, and the Sparks rely more on perimeter shooting to stay in games. Look below for the stats:
| Category | Sparks | Wings |
|---|---|---|
Points Per Game | 81.5 | 85.0 |
Points Allowed | 84.3 | 88.4 |
Field Goal % | 42.6% | 43.7% |
Free Throw % | 76.3% | 78.5% |
3-Pointers Made | 8.9 | 6.9 |
Rebounds Per Game | 32.5 | 35.9 |
Injury Report
There are injuries that affect rotation length and matchups on both teams. The Sparks are short in the frontcourt. The Wings may be without their primary ball-handler.
Sparks
- Cameron Brink (F): Out until June 17 – interior defense suffers without her
- Rickea Jackson (F): Game-time decision – averaging 9.2 PPG off the bench
- Rae Burrell (G): Out until June 29
Wings
- Paige Bueckers (G): Questionable – missed last game with a concussion
- Tyasha Harris (G): Out – rotation guard and second-unit distributor
Betting Trends
Did somebody say slumps? The Sparks have failed to cover spreads in most of their games. Dallas, despite having a poor record, has at least been more reliable for bettors.
Sparks
- 1–5 ATS over their last six
- Opponents are averaging 11 offensive rebounds per game
- Shooting under 30% from three in the second halves this season
Wings
- 4–2 ATS across their last six
- Have hit the team total over in five games this season
- Top five in pace but bottom three in points allowed per 100 possessions
Best Bets
No need to overthink this one. Dallas plays faster, scores more consistently, and is less likely to stall out if Bueckers is cleared. The Sparks may be able to score, but they give up runs way too easily and have had a hard time protecting leads. Here are the two best bets we think have value:
- Pick: Dallas Wings -1.5 | They rebound better, move the ball faster, and have more spacing when Bueckers is in. Even without her, their tempo and interior scoring should be enough against a shorthanded L.A. squad.
- Over 164.5 Total Points | Both teams allow more than 84 points per game. Even on poor shooting nights, their pace and the number of free throws each team draws could drive the total past 164. If it stays within 5–7 points in the fourth, expect longer possessions and fouls that push this higher.
Final Thoughts & Prediction
The Sparks get most of their offense through Plum, but don’t have enough reliable post presence with Brink still being sidelined. Dallas generates points in the paint and draws fouls regularly, but without Bueckers? Ogunbowale has had to force too many looks when the defense closes ranks. If Jackson is cleared, L.A. has another scoring threat, but they’ve broken down defensively in fourth quarters throughout the season.
Final Score Prediction: Dallas Wings 85 | Los Angeles Sparks 84
Dallas finds better looks in the final five minutes. The total clears in the fourth.
– Dallas Wings -1.5
– Over 164.5 total points
If Bueckers plays, Dallas gets much better spacing and more control in the half-court. Without her, possessions fizzle out, and Ogunbowale is forced into tougher shots.
Moderate. Dallas has the stronger interior scoring and draws more fouls, but injuries on both rosters make the spread and total vulnerable to game-day lineup changes.
Don’t forget to always bet responsibly and never gamble with money you can’t afford to lose.
Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers Game 2 Prediction (June 6, 2025)
The Oilers opened the 2025 Stanley Cup Final the same way they did during their last championship run: by winning Game 1 in OT.
Only this time, it didn’t stretch into the early hours like the 1990 opener did, when Petr Klima ended it in the third extra period. Leon Draisaitl buried a power-play goal with 31 seconds left in the first overtime, which is a nice start for Edmonton after they dropped the first three games of the 2024 Final and eventually lost in seven.
The Panthers were up 3-1 in the second period after Sam Bennett scored his second of the night, his 12th of the postseason, before coming back for a 4-3 win.
Not to brag, but we predicted the score (Oilers 4, Panthers 3 in OT) and are feeling like Nostradamus over here.
Game 2 is at Rogers Place in Alberta, the Oilers have the lead, and it’ll be a barn burner. Can the Panthers even it up? Look below for a preview of what we think and our best bets for the second matchup!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Florida Panthers vs. Edmonton Oilers
- Series Status: – Oilers lead 1-0
- Date & Time: Friday, June 6, at 8:00 pm ET
- Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta
- Broadcast: TNT/truTV/Max
Recap of Game 1
Game 1 was fast and tense—exactly what you’d expect from these two high-powered offenses, but it was the Oilers who skated off with the win.
- Final Score: Oilers 4, Panthers 3 (OT)
Key Moments
- Leon Draisaitl finished it with a power-play goal in the final seconds of OT.
- Connor McDavid added two assists, bringing his playoff total to 22.
- Florida had a 3-1 lead but couldn’t hold off Edmonton’s push in the back half of the game.
Notable Stats
- Edmonton ended with 46 shots on goal; Florida had 32.
- On the power play: Panthers went 1-for-4, and the Oilers went 2-for-5.
Team Insights
Game 1 gave us a good look at each team’s strengths, but it also exposed a few problem spots that they’ll need to sort out before Game 2.
Florida Panthers
Early pressure was working, but their late-game control got away from them.

What’s Working
- Aggressive forecheck kept Edmonton pinned in for decent stretches.
- Sergei Bobrovsky held strong during critical moments, especially as the Oilers ramped up in the second.
What Needs Work
- Gave up their momentum after building a solid 3-1 lead, so closing games is an issue.
- Took unnecessary penalties that gave control back to Edmonton.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers outlived a shaky start because of their special teams and top-line execution.

What’s Working
- McDavid and Draisaitl steered the offense with pace and precision.
- Power play took advantage of Florida’s mistakes with two goals on five chances.
What Needs Work
- Defensive zone coverage in the first period left way too much space for Florida’s forwards.
- Too many turnovers between the blue lines gave the Panthers extra zone time.
Key Players to Watch
Game 2 may turn on how the players below handle the high-pressure minutes and special teams situations!
Panthers
- Matthew Tkachuk: Was limited in Game 1. Florida needs him to up the intensity and find more scoring chances.
- Aleksander Barkov: Tasked with slowing down McDavid’s line while still trying to contribute on the other end.
Oilers
- Connor McDavid: Had two assists in the opener and keeps driving Edmonton’s offense with speed and accurate placement.
- Leon Draisaitl: Finished with two goals, including the OT that sealed the deal for the Oilers. He found space between defenders and was an obstacle for Florida down low, especially on the power play.
Betting Odds & Trends
Here’s where the odds and lines currently sit via ESPN BET:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Panthers | +1.5 (-235) | +110 | Over 6.5 (+105) |
Oilers | -1.5 (+180) | -130 | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Betting Trends
The betting trends show what we’ve witnessed on the ice: Florida is always competitive on the road, but Edmonton’s recent form, especially on home ice, makes them a tough out.
Florida Panthers
- Florida handles the road really well and picked up wins in 5 of their last 7 away games.
- They’ve been reliable as underdogs, going 11-8 straight-up in that role this season.
- High-scoring games follow them; 31 of their last 55 road games have hit the over.
Edmonton Oilers
- The Oilers have been on fire at Rogers Place; they’ve won 7 of their last 8 at home.
- Overall, they’ve won 7 of their last 8 games, and we don’t see any signs of them slowing down.
- Goals have come regularly in their home playoff games; the total’s gone over in 5 of 8 so far.
Best Bets
Game 1 set up the playoffs with a high-scoring, back-and-forth finish, so there’s every reason to expect another banger. Here’s where we think are the best bets going into Game 2!
- Over 6.5 Goals (-122): These two teams combined for seven goals in the opener, and neither side looked super disciplined defensively. With this much offensive talent on the ice? Another total in the 6–8 range wouldn’t be a shocker.
- Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal Scorer: He scored twice in Game 1 and always finds openings around the crease and on the power play. As long as he’s getting chances on that top unit, he’s always a scoring threat.
- Panthers +1.5 (-225): Game 1 went to OT, and Florida had a 3–1 lead at one point. The series looks like it’ll stay close, so taking the goal cushion here makes sense.
Game 2 Outlook: What Bettors Should Expect
Game 1 told us a lot. The Panthers were the better team for stretches, but couldn’t hang on to their lead. The Oilers started out slow but were bailed out by special teams. Both teams have scoring depth. Neither looked totally locked in defensively. And that means we’ll see another high-paced, mistake-driven game.
Edmonton’s top-end talent carried them; McDavid picked apart Florida’s structure and Draisaitl went to town on them on the power play. The concern? They still give up way too much in the first period. Florida jumped on them for three goals in 24 minutes. If that keeps happening, Edmonton’s margin for error is slim.
Florida’s forecheck caused problems, and Bobrovsky kept it from getting worse. But they gave the Oilers five power plays, including one in overtime. They can’t afford to hand chances to the league’s best unit. They’ll also need more from Tkachuk, who wasn’t much of a factor in Game 1.
Final Score Prediction: Oilers 5, Panthers 4 (OT)
Florida pushes it to OT again, but Edmonton finds the winner. It’s the same result, just a different breakdown.
Home ice leans toward Edmonton, but Florida has covered the puck line in 5 of their last 7 road games and rarely gets run out of a building. Add in the scoring trends (seven goals in Game 1, strong over records on both sides), and bettors are looking at another high-scoring, one-goal type of result.
Best Bets Recap:
- Over 6.5 Goals (-122)
- Draisaitl Anytime Goal
- Panthers +1.5 (-225)
Ready to use our betting picks to place a wager on Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals? Head over to our list of the top sports betting sites to get in on the action!
Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction (June 6, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal
Top seed Jannik Sinner hasn’t lost a Grand Slam match this year, and now he’s up against sixth seed Djokovic, and it’ll be a test. Novak is after his 25th Grand Slam title, and he’s not easy to beat at Roland Garros.
The two players are tied at 4–4 in head-to-heads, but Sinner has won the last three, one being a straight-setter in Shanghai. Sinner’s the favorite on form, but Djokovic has made his career out of not buckling under pressure.
Who will make it to the finals in Paris? Will Sinner nab his first French Open win? We’re serving up all you need to know!
Match Details
- Date: Friday, June 6
- Time: 11:25 am EDT
- Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
- Surface: Clay
- How to Watch (TV): TNT Sports 1 and 4
- Streaming: Discovery+
Betting Odds
If you’re betting on Sinner vs. Djokovic, look below for the current odds and lines via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Jannik Sinner: – 450
- Novak Djokovic: +330
- Over/Under Total Games: Over 36.5 (-115), Under 36.5 (-120)
Head-to-Head Snapshot
Sinner and Djokovic have played eight times, splitting the series evenly at 4–4, but Sinner is favored based on recent results:
- All-Time Record: Tied 4-4
Recent Meetings
- 2024 Australian Open Semifinal: Sinner def. Djokovic (retirement – injury)
- 2023 ATP Finals: Sinner def. Djokovic in straight sets
- 2023 Wimbledon Quarterfinal: Djokovic def. Sinner in three sets
Player Form & Stats
Sinner has handled every opponent in straight sets and hasn’t been pushed past 6–4 in a single set. Djokovic has had a rougher road; he’s dropped sets and played longer matches, but his control of important points hasn’t diminished.

Jannik Sinner
- Current Ranking: World No. 1
- 2025 Grand Slam Record: 19–0
- French Open 2025: Has not lost a set
- Serve Speed: Up to 252 km/h
- Notable Wins: Defeated Alexander Bublik in straight sets in the quarterfinals

Novak Djokovic
- Current Ranking: World No. 6
- Age: 38
- French Open 2025: Reached his 13th semifinal
- Quarterfinal Performance: Beat Alexander Zverev in four sets
- Milestone: Recorded his 100th career win on the clay at Roland Garros
Key Match Factors
Sinner has controlled his matches from the first serve, won in straight sets, and keeps opponents from dragging out points. Djokovic has taken longer routes, but he is always composed in deciding moments. It could come down to how well each of them manages service games under pressure and maintains focus in the longer baseline rallies.
- Sinner’s Grand Slam Form: 19–0 this season with few breaks of serve and minimal time spent defending from the baseline in rallies.
- Djokovic’s Experience: Playing his 49th major semifinal, he has the ability to change his strategy mid-match and stay calm when the score is close.
- Physical Matchup: Sinner has more speed and range. Djokovic continues to manage his movement well, even during marathon matches.
- Pressure Management: Sinner has closed sets when he’s ahead. Djokovic handles high-pressure return games better than anyone else on tour.
Best Bets
Want to know what we are checking out? Here are our three picks for your best bets:
- Match Winner: Jannik Sinner (-450) | Sinner is 19–0 in majors this season and hasn’t been pushed past 6–4 in any set at Roland Garros. He’s won recent matches against Djokovic and hits the court with more control from the baseline and if he has any physical concerns, no one knows about them.
- Total Games Over/Under: (-115) | Sinner and Djokovic both have monster first serves, so it’s likely that they’ll split at least one set; this one has room to go long enough for the over to land.
- Set Betting: Sinner to win 3-1 | Djokovic could take a set with early pressure or a long tiebreak, but Sinner’s current level points to him closing this out in four.
FYI: Check the latest lines before you make any bets! The markets can move before the match starts.
Sinner vs. Djokovic: Our Final Take
Final Match Prediction
– Jannik Sinner def. Novak Djokovic – 3 sets to 1 (6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-2)
Sinner uses his speed and shot accuracy to get past Djokovic in four sets.
The top-ranked player in the world is pitted against a three-time French Open champion, but Sinner is unbeaten in majors this season and has advanced through the draw in Paris without losing a set. Djokovic, 38, has taken on longer matches, but still wins points in crunch time.
Sinner has won their last three matches, including a straight-sets victory in Melbourne this year. Djokovic brings far more experience, but he’s up against a 22-year-old player with more raw power.
If you’re betting on this one, here’s where the best value is:
- Match Winner: Sinner (-450)
- Total Games: Over (-115)
- Set Score: Sinner to win 3–1
Looking for a new sportsbook or want to compare prices? Check out our list of recs for the best betting apps!
UFC 316 Predictions: Best Bets & Fight Card Preview
*ding ding ding* It’s Round 2 for Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley! This is a rematch made for hardcore UFC fans. There’s beef, a title at stake, and these two want to beat the ever-loving you-know-what out of each other.
Dvalishvili barreled through O’Malley the first time. Six takedowns. Three rounds of insane pressure. O’Malley couldn’t get going and looked out of his league when the fight became a grind. And now? It’s personal. He’s been rebuilding from the ground up with new training partners and drilling nonstop so that he doesn’t get stuck on his back like a turtle again.
Merab’s camp hasn’t been clean. He fractured his pinky toe in mid-May but kept sparring, barely missed any time, and told his team he’d fight anyway because he still has nine other toes. That’s where his mind is coming into Jersey.
As for the co-main event, we’ve got two totally different styles of fighters. Peña’s banking on her experience, and Kayla Harrison’s been ragdolling everyone who’s put in front of her. That includes her last UFC bout, where she tossed Chelsea Chandler across the Octagon and finished it in less than six minutes. Peña’s tough, but toughness doesn’t help when someone’s pinning your wrists and dropping elbows.
Top to bottom, this card is built on violence. Big names, aggressive styles, and a few matchups that feel like they were designed to end inside the first two rounds.
Below, we are gonna do a full breakdown of the card, our expert predictions, and what we think are the best bets if you’re putting some money on UFC 316!
Event Details
- Date: June 7, 2025
- Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
- Early Prelims: 6:00 pm ET (ESPN+/Disney+)
- Prelims: 8:00 pm ET (ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+)
- Main Card: 10:00 pm ET (ESPN+ PPV)
- See the full UFC 316 card
Main Event Breakdown: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2
This fight is about two things: endurance and punishment.
- Champion: Merab Dvalishvili (19-4)
- Challenger: Sean O’Malley (18-2)
- Odds: Dvalishvili -280 | O’Malley +240 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Main Storylines
Dvalishvili broke him with pace and pressure in their first fight. He racked up six takedowns—three of them in the opening four minutes—and kept O’Malley on his back foot from the opening exchange. By the middle of round two, O’Malley had landed only one clean strike. The rest of the fight? He was just trying to peel Merab off him.
O’Malley has been overhauling everything. He spent two weeks at Mighty Mouse’s gym drilling scramble chains, brought in Ryan Hall for defensive jiu-jitsu, and logged over 100 rounds of live wrestling with bigger training partners during his Arizona camp. He also got leaner in the hopes of having quicker lateral movement.
On May 13, during Merab’s training, he broke his pinky toe in a sparring round in Tbilisi. He skipped roadwork for six days but never stopped drilling or grappling. Since then, he’s added two pounds of muscle and claims his VO2 max is the best it’s ever been. His coaches say his mat returns have gotten faster and that he’s been overpowering bigger wrestlers in training.
If O’Malley gets walked down again and ends up with his back to the cage by the end of round one, he’s going to get mauled. But if he can stay upright and land something heavy before the midway point of round two, it’ll be a real fight.
Co-Main Event: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison
Peña may have the belt, but Harrison’s the heavy favorite for a reason.
- Champion: Julianna Peña (13-5)
- Challenger: Kayla Harrison (18-1)
- Odds: Harrison -590 | Peña +370 (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Main Storylines
Harrison’s last fight lasted 5:47. She dragged Chandler to the mat twice, moved to mount, and finished with strikes. Her top game is built around pressure, balance, and control, and she gives no openings once she’s in position.
Peña’s been out for over a year. She cracked two ribs last July in a scramble with Raquel Pennington and tweaked her wrist during recovery. She’s tough, throws volume, and can scrap in the pocket, but she’s been overwhelmed by stronger grapplers before.
If Harrison gets inside early? Peña’s getting planted. Staying upright through the first five minutes is her best shot.
Main Card Matchups
All of the fights on the main card could end in the first 10 minutes. These fighters have zero interest in dragging it out any longer than that!
– Odds: Pyfer -300 | Gastelum +250
Gastelum’s dropped five of his last seven and hasn’t looked good since his fight with Adesanya. He’s slower at 185 and takes more damage than he used to. Pyfer’s not technical, but he doesn’t need to be; he doesn’t wait, and he’s stopped four of his last five inside the first round and hurts anyone who hesitates.
Four of his last five wins came inside the opening round. If Gastelum’s circling without throwing? He will not last long.
– Odds: Mix -110 | Bautista -110
Mix is a finisher—13 submission wins, most of them before the halfway point of round two. He ran through Bellator’s top bantamweights and enters the UFC with a solid grappling edge. Bautista’s the better striker, but his takedown defense hasn’t held up against strong chain-wrestlers. If Mix gets control early? It could end for Bautista.
Odds: Holland -160 | Luque +140
Luque absorbs a lot of shots but still keeps coming. His last clean win was over RDA, and he throws in volume, even if his defense has slipped a little. Holland’s longer, moves better, and works well from range, but he gets drawn into heavy exchanges. First clean shot could end this within five minutes, so we don’t expect it to go the distance.
Best Bets & Predictions
Where do we see the best betting value on UFC 316? Based on style matchups, recent form, and how each fighter usually wins or loses, here are the four we think have the most value!
Merab Dvalishvili to Win by Decision (-110)
He took O’Malley down six times in the last fight and held position for over seven minutes. Unless O’Malley lands something clean in the first round, this will go the same way—pressure, mat returns, control. Merab hasn’t finished anyone since 2018; he breaks down his opponents.
Kayla Harrison to Win Inside the Distance (-200)
Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and comes in off of two separate injuries. Harrison’s last fight ended with elbows from mount in round one. If Peña gets planted once, she’s not getting back up without any damage.
Patchy Mix to Win by Submission (+150)
Mix finishes on the ground lightning fast; he has 13 career subs, and most have been in the first two rounds. Bautista has a hard time against strong grapplers, and if Mix gets his back, he closes fast. This one is the clearest prop on the card.
Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)
Luque and Holland can crack, but they’ve both gone the distance in four of their last six. Holland tends to slow the tempo when he’s winning, and Luque’s chin has held up even in fights where he’s been tagged. Unless someone gets caught clean in round one, this will likely hit the over.
Closing Thoughts & Main Event Prediction
Let’s run it back with the numbers that make the most sense based on matchup dynamics, fight history, and what each fighter usually does under pressure:
- Merab Dvalishvili by Decision (-110)
- Kayla Harrison Inside the Distance (-200)
- Patchy Mix by Submission (+150)
- Over 2.5 Rounds in Luque vs. Holland (-120)
The Fight We’re Most Excited to Watch
Bautista vs. Mix is the one to watch. Both open fast, and once one of them takes control, it won’t take long. If Mix gets position early, it turns into a grappling clinic. If Bautista keeps it upright, it’ll be an absolute banger.
X-Factors to Watch
A few wild cards could change how all of these fights play out:
- Merab’s broken toe kept him out of conditioning for close to a week. He trained through it, but cardio pacing might be different.
- O’Malley overhauled his training environment mid-camp. That can work, or it can backfire.
- Peña hasn’t fought in over a year and goes into the octagon after fractured ribs and a wrist strain; those aren’t small potatoes.
- Mix is fighting under UFC lights for the first time. Some fighters adapt, but some don’t.
Final Prediction: Dvalishvili vs. O’Malley 2
If it stays upright for a decent amount of time, O’Malley has a chance. But it probably won’t. Merab closes space way too well and stays super glued to his opponents.
- Pick: Merab Dvalishvili
- Method: Unanimous Decision
- Why: The blueprint hasn’t changed. Merab keeps the pace high, chains takedowns, and wears his opponents out. Unless O’Malley clips him clean inside the first seven minutes, this will be one-sided again.
FYI: Odds can change closer to fight time, so check the latest on your sportsbook! You can check out our recs for the best ufc betting apps, and always gamble responsibly.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Prediction (June 5, 2025)
Welp, the Yankees went down 4-0 in the Bronx—their home turf. Oof. The Guardians scored 3 runs in the first inning, so their rotation was working tonight as opposed to the previous games against NY. As for the Yankees? They got their first extra-base hit in the bottom of the ninth inning. What a difference a night makes!
It’s tied up 3-3, and we all want to see what happens next at Yankee Stadium in the next matchup. The Yanks want to stop at the top of the AL East, and Cleveland wants to get a better footing in the league.
Will pitchers Max Fried vs. Slade Cecconi make a difference in the next game? Keep reading to find out what the odds and trends are and for our picks for the best bets!
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cleveland Guardians (33–27) vs. New York Yankees (37–23)
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 5, at 7:05 pm ET
- Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: YES Network
- Weather: Clear skies with a temperature around 73°F
Pitching Matchup
The Yankees and Guardians will close out their three-game set Thursday night in the Bronx. New York is sending Max Fried to the mound—they don’t want a repeat of the last game. Cleveland counters with Slade Cecconi, who’s trying to find his place in the rotation. Here’s how these two throwers compare!

Yankees: Max Fried (7-1, 1.92 ERA)
Fried’s been one of the most reliable arms in the league this year. He’s killed it at Yankee Stadium with an ERA under 2.00 and has held hitters to minimal damage all season. He is coming off a rare misstep against the Dodgers, where he gave up six runs, but there’s no indication of a bigger issue.

Guardians: Slade Cecconi (1-1, 5.28 ERA)
Cecconi hasn’t quite settled in since being moved into the rotation. He gave up five runs in four innings his last time out and has already allowed five home runs in only three starts. His fastball has been meh, and command issues have put him in bad spots early in counts. Against a deep Yankees lineup? He’s a risk.
Team Form & Trends
The Yankees have been solid at home. The Guardians have been anything but while on the road.
| Yankees | Guardians |
|---|---|
– 37-23 overall, 1st in AL East | – 33-27 overall, 3rd in AL Central |
Key Player Spotlight
Below are the hitters that will most likely impact Thursday’s game.
Yankees: Aaron Judge
- Slashed .364/.453/.798 with 11 home runs in May
- Tough matchup for any right-hander, including Cecconi
- Leads the team in hitting and extra-base hits
Guardians: José Ramírez
- Team leader in RBIs and total bases
- Brings power from both sides of the plate
- Needs to produce if Cleveland’s going to break through against Fried
Latest Betting Odds
Below are the latest odds from DraftKings and we think there is some value to be found.
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Guardians | +1.5 (+105) | +215 | Over 8.5 (-120) |
Yankees | -1.5 (-125) | -265 | Under 8.5 (+100) |
Best Bets
Here’s where we think the smart money is if you’re betting on this one!
- Yankees -1.5 (-125) | With Fried on the mound and a deeper lineup? The Yankees are in a really good spot to cover a multi-run spread.
- Under 8.5 Runs (+100) | Fried has kept scoring in check all season long, and Cleveland hasn’t generated much offense on the road. A lower total feels right..
- Yankees First 5 Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-110) | Fried controls games in early innings, and the Guardians have been really slow to start. Backing New York through five innings makes sense in this spot.
Closing Pitch: Yankees Look to Dominate
Max Fried gives the Yankees an advantage in the series finale. He’s been hard to hit at home, and Slade Cecconi has had some issues keeping the ball in the park. The Yankees have hit well in the Bronx, and the Guardians haven’t done much of anything on the road.
Top Betting Picks
- Yankees -1.5 (+105)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
- Yankees First 5 Innings -0.5 (-110)
Fried’s form, paired with home-field advantage and a stronger top-to-bottom batting order, makes the Yankees the safer side to back in this one.
Final Score Prediction: Yankees 5, Guardians 2
New York has the better starter, has a more reliable offense at home, and a bullpen that handles late-game spots really well. Fried should keep Cleveland in check while the Yankees do enough to pull away.
Be cautious with over bets! Both teams have shown they can limit scoring, so if you’re targeting any of these lines, it’s always wise to act early before the odds move closer to the first pitch!
Check the latest odds at your preferred sportsbook before betting. And as always—wager responsibly and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek Prediction (June 5, 2025) – Roland Garros Semifinal Showdown
Roland Garros isn’t waiting for the final for one of its biggest tennis matches. The top two women players in the world are playing in the tournament, and it’ll be hardcore tennis.
Aryna Sabalenka has bulldozed her way through everyone this year; she’s won titles in Brisbane and Madrid and solidified her place as World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is just behind her in the rankings, but she’s held her ground in Paris—she hasn’t lost a match there since 2020.
Swiatek is after a French Open four in a row, a feat that would put her in rare company in the Open Era. Sabalenka hasn’t won this tournament…yet. She seems to have figured out playing on the slower clay, worked on her second serve, and has more control of her power-heavy baseline game.
These two have previously met twelve times. Swiatek is ahead 8–4 overall and 5–1 on clay. Sabalenka did win their most recent match, beating her in straight sets in Cincinnati last summer. But Roland Garros is different. The clay is much slower than hard court, the rallies are longer, and Swiatek has dominated here.
Can Sabalenka finally break through, or will Swiatek add another win to her run as Queen of the Red Clay? Let’s find out!
Match Details
- Date: Thursday, June 5, 2025
- Time: 9:00 am ET
- Venue: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Roland Garros
- Surface: Clay
- Broadcast: TNT / HBO Max
Head-to-Head Overview
Swiatek leads the series 8–4 and has won five of their six meetings on clay. In those matches, she controlled the rallies by hitting heavier topspin, targeting Sabalenka’s forehand on the run, and extending points past the four-shot mark.
Sabalenka’s one clay win was in Madrid last year, where the altitude helped her flatten the ball and shorten exchanges. In their most recent match, on hard court in Cincinnati in 2024, she took Swiatek out in straight sets by serving above 70% on first serve and finishing quickly off her insane forehand. She’ll need to do the same in Paris.
Player Profiles & Recent Form
Swiatek and Sabalenka have gotten to the semifinal without dropping a set, but their play is different. Sabalenka has shortened points with aggressive serving and first-strike play. Swiatek has controlled the points with court coverage and precision from the baseline.

Aryna Sabalenka
- World No. 1 with titles in Brisbane and Madrid this year
- Hasn’t lost a set through five rounds at Roland Garros
- Winning over 70% of first-serve points and averaging fewer than 15 unforced errors per match
- Forehand has been more controlled on clay, with less risk off the run, more depth up the middle
- Movement has gotten better; she’s sliding into her shots well and recovering quickly out of corners
- Has improved point construction on slower surfaces, especially when returning second serves

Iga Swiatek
- Three-time defending champion in Paris with 26 straight match wins at Roland Garros
- Has faced only two break points combined in the last three rounds
- Using a ton of topspin to push opponents deep and open up angles, particularly from the forehand side
- Mixing in early backhand redirects to break up the pace and shorten back-and-forths
- Serve placement has been good; it’s kicking wide on the ad side and flattening into the body
- Physically looks good; she hasn’t spent more than 90 minutes on court in any match so far during this tournament
Tactical Matchup Analysis
How do Sabalenka and Swiatek’s technical games look when we compare them? Look below!
Sabalenka’s Strengths
- Flat, early ball-striking allows her to take over from the baseline
- First serve regularly clears 115 mph and sets up shorter points
- Has added more spin and margin on clay, which cuts down on unforced errors
- Looks more balanced when recovering after wide balls, especially on her backhand side
Swiatek’s Strengths
- Forehand spin forces opponents back, giving her time to reposition and step in
- Backhand down the line has opened up the court consistently this tournament
- Anticipates early in rallies and uses positioning to break up aggressive patterns
- Rarely gives away short balls; her depth neutralizes first-strike players like Sabalenka
If Sabalenka is winning points within the first three shots, she has the advantage. If Swiatek gets into her baseline rhythm and pushes rallies past five shots, Sabalenka’s control starts to go, so it’s about who will dictate the court position.
Betting Insights & Lates Odds
If you’re betting on this semifinal matchup, here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
| Player | Moneyline | Total Games | Game Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
Sabalenka | -128 | Over 22.5 (-106) | -1.5 (-110) |
Swiatek | +106 | Under 22.5 (-126) | +1.5 (-120) |
Best Bets
The odds are really close, but the betting angles are predicting a long and really competitive match. Here’s what we think are the three best bets!
- Swiatek to Win (+106): She’s 5–1 against Sabalenka on clay and hasn’t lost in Paris since 2020. As an underdog, this number has a lot of value, especially given her advantage in long exchanges.
- Over 22.5 Games (-106): Even if this ends in two sets, both players are capable of holding serve deep into sets. If it goes three, this total should clear without much sweat.
- Sabalenka to Serve 5+ Aces: She’s averaging about 6 aces per match this tournament. If she lands above 60% on first serves, this number is well within reach!
Expert Predictions
The tennis experts are divided, but the reasoning they all have makes sense
Those who are leaning toward Swiatek point to her shot selection and stability on clay. She’s won 26 consecutive matches at Roland Garros and holds a 5–1 edge over Sabalenka on this surface. Her topspin forehand, early backhand changes, and ability to reset baseline exchanges have consistently disrupted Sabalenka’s game.
Others are backing Sabalenka based on her current form. She hasn’t dropped a set in Paris, has kept unforced errors down, and is hitting her spots on serve. Her footwork has held up well even when drawn wide, and she’s finishing points earlier in the rally than in her past matches on clay.
The general expectation? A three-set match where service holds are common, but the pressure builds as return depth increases and the margins close in. It very likely will come down to whether Sabalenka can stay controlled late in sets, or if Swiatek can extend baseline patterns long enough to wear her down.
Swiatek or Sabalenka: Our Pick for the Roland Garros Final Spot
Sabalenka has held court all tournament; she’s winning short points, limiting unforced errors, and nailing her serve and forehand. She’s handled every match without needing to make many adjustments and hasn’t shown signs of fatigue.
Swiatek is more experienced on this surface, understands how to disrupt the tempo, and doesn’t give opponents an inch. Her advantage on clay comes from how well she resets points and builds patterns without overhitting. That’s been the difference in five of their six clay court meetings.
The head-to-head leans toward Swiatek, especially on slower courts. Sabalenka has made this matchup closer in the last year, but she still has a hard time when she’s forced into fourth- and fifth-ball decisions outside of her strike zone. If it goes past the opening 45 minutes, Swiatek’s ability to absorb pressure and counterpunch is much harder to crack.
Crowd energy will likely favor Swiatek, as she’s won here three straight years and has earned that respect. But Sabalenka plays well even if the crowd is cheering for her opponent and likes the tension, not to mention that this is the best we’ve seen her play on clay.
Final Prediction
- Iga Swiatek def. Aryna Sabalenka in 3 sets (4–6, 6–3, 7–5)
- Our Best Bet: Over 22.5 total games (-110)
Swiatek’s combo of precision and patience gives her the advantage in a long match, but Sabalenka will make her work for every single point. There’ll be lots of extended baseline exchanges, close service games, and one or two turning points if it goes to a third set.
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