The Underdog Advantage: How to Spot and Capitalize on Upset Opportunities

Although upsets are relatively rare in sports betting, there can be much to gain from making a successful pick on an underdog team or player—you can enjoy a much bigger payout than usual and get the satisfaction of spotting an opportunity that most other people missed.

Picking bets where you can take advantage of an upset can’t be done by the seat of your pants. Bettors who find these opportunities look at statistical analysis and head-to-head matchups on both teams or players involved in the wager. You must also understand the reason the lines move, be it for the legitimate likelihood of the outcome or the bookmakers trying to balance out the betting action.

We’ll discuss how to spot and capitalize on underdog bets where you can seize opportunities on upsets. Remember that these bets involve solid research and shouldn’t be used as a day-to-day strategy. Read our guide to betting upsets, and you’ll learn when to strike, the best ways to bet on an upset, and how to use stats and data to inform your approach.

What Is an Upset?

An upset in sports betting is an entirely unexpected result. It occurs when the team or player favored to win doesn’t come through. The underdog wins over the favored player or team (who should take them handily).

Betting on upsets means that you’re getting longer odds because the likelihood of the underdog outcome is less likely to happen. However, getting the bet on the underdog right results in a bigger payout than you’d get betting on your favorite team.

In the example above, the Pittsburgh Steelers are heavily favored to win over the Cleveland Browns, and a $120 bet will profit $100. However, a $100 bet on Cleveland can yield a profit of $230 if they can pull off an upset over the Steelers. You can see that betting on Cleveland has longer odds, but you’ll profit more due to their unlikelihood of winning.

Betting on the underdog team can be much more profitable, but you cannot bet on the underdog willy-nilly and cross your fingers, hoping for them to win. Spotting good underdog betting opportunities with online sports betting is rooted in understanding why lines and odds change before the game and knowing how to identify overreactions in betting markets that create value. Additionally, researching each of your selections using statistical analysis and historical data is crucial. We’ll get into these ideas in the next section, so read on!

How Do You Predict an Upset in Sports Betting?

Before we understand the various strategies for predicting upsets in sports betting, know that upsets only happen occasionally. The favorite usually always wins, so you should expect to lose much of the time when you’re betting on upsets. Betting the underdog is inherently riskier, and you see this with the longer odds and larger potential payout. The excellent news about betting on upsets is that you don’t have to win every bet to make a profit.

Use these strategies and tricks for pinpointing upset opportunities and making the best picks possible:

Look at the Entire Context

The best bets are grounded in statistics and research—the key to long-term success in online sports betting. Working off your gut instinct, hunches, or what other people are anecdotally telling you doesn’t produce the successful results you’ll get from analyzing statistics and historical data. After all, studying prior teams’ or players’ history can be a good indicator of what could happen in the future.

So, what information are you looking into to inform these upset bets? A few of the critical factors you should be examining include the following:

• Keep in the loop on player injuries or suspensions. Sometimes, it doesn’t make much of a difference, but it could impact the outcome if it’s one of the key players. Injuries or suspensions on the favorite team, in particular, are reasonable indications that an upset is imminent.
• Check the weather before the game. If the forecast calls for snow, rain, or some other unideal condition, these are good times to bet on upsets because many of them occur during low-scoring games when the weather is terrible.
• Keep track of which teams have to travel. If the favorite team has to travel through a few time zones to get to the game, they are prone to poor performance due to jet lag or bad sleep.

Good research is your key to staying ahead of public betting sentiment and finding situations where upsets are likelier to happen. There’s still a place for betting based on your gut, but it’s only best when it’s coupled with numbers, historical data, and looking at the complete context of the game or matchup.

Use Data and Statistics to Analyze the Teams or Players

After looking at the entire context of the upcoming game or event, it’s time to research the teams or players who will be participating. Recent performances and current form can’t be emphasized when choosing your upset betting opportunities. Regardless of who the favorite or the underdog is, take some time to see how each team or player has performed recently. You can get a good idea of which momentum is moving, which could be a more accurate indicator of who will win.

Aside from determining where the primary momentum is going, there are a few other factors to consider before betting on an upset:

• Think about two teams facing off with a history of solid defense. It won’t be a high-scoring game, but these are fertile grounds for upsets.
• If the teams have opposite strengths, like the underdog being good at defense and the favorite being good at offense, an upset is less likely to occur. Look for teams with similar strengths—these bets are ripe for upsets.
• Consider betting on upsets if you’re dealing with a strong team with a super specific Achilles heel, like a quarterback who chokes occasionally.
• It’s essential to look at coaching, too. You might have a strong team with a coach who tends to follow the same strategies and style versus a weaker team with a coach who can better adapt to unexpected situations. These are prime opportunities to bet on upsets, too.

As mentioned before, looking for recent performances, such as the last five to ten games, can give you much insight into the team’s current form and the likelihood of how well they’ll perform in their next matchup.

The Importance of Line Movement

Upsets can be profitable for bettors because of the line movement in online sports betting. Knowing why lines move and how they affect value for the underdog team or competitor is the other half of successful upset betting that you’ll want to pair with the statistics and research you’re doing to inform your selections.

Bookmakers want relatively even action on either side of a bet to be profitable no matter the outcome. If the book sees that a lot of the public is backing the favorite, which happens all the time, they offer a reduced price on the odds for betting on the underdog to incentivize people to place bets on the dog. This creates value that appeals to those who are looking for a deal.

So, to balance the betting action, the books usually have odds that don’t truly reflect the likelihood of each outcome. This is why good research on your betting selections is essential. You can’t always trust the books’ numbers. The odds could actually signify the actual likelihood of who will win or lose, or they could be significantly skewed!

The Public Bets the Favorite

The casual betting public is usually drawn to wagering on the biggest names in sports and games where many points will be scored. This is why you see a lot of recreational bettors betting on your favorite team or competitor. You can find some good opportunities for betting on an upset with games like these, where a lot of the betting public will heavily favor one side because the books are bound to discount the odds for the dog—line movement. It can give you an excellent idea of what the public thinks!

Ways to Bet on Upsets

The best way to bet on upsets is with singles bets like money lines (betting on the winner), point spreads (betting the margin of victory), or over/unders (betting on the final combined score).

Money Lines

Money lines are bets where you try to predict the winner of the game correctly. Let’s go over an example of how you can successfully bet on upset for an upcoming football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Green Bay Packers:

According to your favorite online sportsbooks, these are the odds of either team winning. The implied probability for each set of odds is as follows:

You begin researching both teams to see if there’s a chance for an upset to occur here, where the Packers can win over the Bengals. This is what you find that indicates an upset is possible:

• The Cincinnati Bengals have won the last three games in a row, but they’ve been close each time.
• One of their linebackers is on suspension, which could affect the outcome, though it’s not sure.
• If you consult historical data and look at prior games between the Bengals and the Packers, you will find that the Packers have won quite a few games against Cincinnati.

Despite this research, the Bengals remain the favorite to win this upcoming game. However, based on the statistics and data you’ve reviewed, you give them a lower probability of winning. You give them a 1 in 5 shot of reigning victorious over the Packers, which translates into 20%. When you compare this with the implied probability of 31.25% of Green Bay winning, you smell an upset, but you’ll want to get the best price possible on the odds for betting, which shouldn’t be hard considering the situation at hand!

Knowing that the Bengals are favored to win, you know all too well that most of the public’s money will go toward Cincinnati, forcing the book to lower their price on the odds for Green Bay. When betting on the Bengals gets hyped up, watch for the odds to get longer but for the prices to go down in your favor. When the line moves, place your bet!

Point Spreads

One of the safer routes for betting on upsets is doing it through point spreads or handicap betting, where you’re trying to predict the margin of victory correctly. Bettors can get excellent value on bets where the favorite is expected to win by a wide margin. You’ll get a lot of casual bettors wagering on the favorite, thus creating some good value on the odds for the dog.

Let’s look at another example of the Cincinnati and Green Bay game to give you a little more context:

Using standard American odds of -110, a bet for the favored Bengals to win means that they must win by over 4 points; otherwise, it’s considered a lost bet. Betting on the Packers results in a win if they win outright over the Bengals or lose by less than 4 points. If you’re dealing with two teams that are evenly matched when scoring points, you could be dealing with a game that could go either way, especially with a point spread this narrow.

Follow the steps outlined in our section on finding upset opportunities in moneyline betting and apply them to spread betting. Just wait for the line to move and then spring into action to get the best value possible.

Wrapping Up: Turning Underdog Insight into Betting Success

Betting on underdogs isn’t just about chasing big payouts—it’s about identifying value where others overlook it. Through careful research, understanding of line movement, and close attention to situational factors like injuries, travel, and recent performance, you can begin to spot upset opportunities that casual bettors miss. Upset betting may not produce frequent wins, but with a calculated approach, even a modest hit rate can yield long-term profitability.

Ultimately, success in underdog betting hinges on preparation and discipline. By combining statistical analysis with market awareness—like spotting sharp money or tracking public betting patterns—you equip yourself to bet smarter, not harder. Whether you’re new to betting or sharpening an existing strategy, learning how to capitalize on underdog value can give you a real edge in a market that often favors the favorite.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Preview & Prediction (August 1, 2025)

Brittney Griner will take on her former team since joining the Atlanta Dream. She averages 10.2 points with 5.7 rebounds, and let’s not forget that the Atlanta Dream team is also the best they’ve had in several years. The Dream took home the win in their last encounter against the Phoenix Mercury. But is Mercury prepared to make up for the last encounter that ended 79:90?

Mercury will go into the game with a loss against the Fever, while the Dream will have to fight off fatigue despite coming from a win on the road against the Wings. The Dream has also grabbed the win in its last three encounters on the road. But when it comes to season stats, both teams are on par, each taking 16 wins so far in the season.

As for the head-to-head stats, the Phoenix Mercury has the upper hand with 10 wins compared to the Dream’s 6 wins. These stats are based on their encounters for the past 6 years, which puts the Phoenix Mercury as the favorite, but let’s review even further.

Game Details and Context

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–10) vs. Atlanta Dream (16–11)
• Date & Time: Friday, August 1, at 8 pm MT / 10 pm ET,
• Venue: Gateway Center Arena, College Park, Georgia
• How to Watch: CBSSN nationally and WNBA League Pass

Here are some key storylines to keep in mind as we run through our pick for the game:

• Atlanta is playing back-to-back and without all-star Rhyne Howard.
• Phoenix is healthy and features Sabally, Copper, and Thomas, all ramped up.
• Home-court advantage key: Mercury 9-5 at home, Dream just 5-9 on the road.

Team Analysis

Both teams have fared well this season, but if we were to judge from the last five encounters, then the Atlanta Dream has the upper hand. The team has won four out of its last five matches, and all four have been on the road. The Phoenix Mercury, on the other hand, has won only one of its last five encounters. But those aren’t enough to pick the winner. Let’s consider the key team strengths and weaknesses.

Betting Lines and Trends

The sportsbooks have weighed in—here are the most up-to-date odds from ESPN BET:

• ATS & O/U Trends:
  • Dream: 3‑7 ATS last 10 games, under in 4 of 6 road games recently.
  • Mercury: 6‑3 ATS last 9, 4‑1 ATS last 5 at home. Under has hit in 4 of the last 6 overall games.

Gameflow and Matchups

It looks like Allisha Gray will have to carry the Atlanta Dream in this game, as the team has a thin bench, size mismatch, and travel fatigue. And let’s not forget the absence of all-star Rhyne Howard.

On the other hand, the Phoenix Mercury has been much faster at home, and it’ll come into the game with a full, healthy roster. The team also has a stellar depth compared to the Atlanta Dream. It is likely to overwhelm the Atlanta Dream as its elite defense fends off the Dream offense.

Best Bets

Make sure to check the latest odds on our best sports betting sites before placing your Mercury vs. Dream bets—lines can move as tip-off approaches, and staying informed can help you find the best value.

Our Take: Lock in These Picks

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 88 – Atlanta Dream 77

The Phoenix Mercury will have no stress covering, but the total stays under.

The Atlanta Dream goes on depleted and without adequate rest against a healthier Phoenix Mercury, which has also been dominant at home. You can expect a physical and lower-scoring control game.

When it comes to offense and defense, the Phoenix Mercury is a master of both and will likely outplay the Atlanta Dream. The Mercury also has better depth and energy levels compared to the Dream, which is on the second leg of its back-to-back on the road.

As for our top picks and confidence levels, here are the bets to consider:

1. Mercury -2.5 (spread): High confidence
2. Under 164.5: Moderate confidence
3. Mercury ML (Moneyline): Solid parlay anchor

Monterrey vs. FC Cincinnati Prediction & Match Preview (July 31, 2025)

FC Cincinnati has a lot of balls in the air this summer! Their ambitions? Another Supporters’ Shield while kicking off a serious push for Leagues Cup silverware. Their tournament run starts Thursday night at TQL Stadium, where Pat Noonan’s squad will host LIGA MX heavyweight CF Monterrey in their group stage opener.

Cincinnati has the home advantage, and TQL Stadium has been good to them this season. But Monterrey ran through them in last year’s Concacaf Champions Cup. Both clubs have made changes, and the lines are almost even, so this one? It isn’t exactly a soft landing place for either team.

Who you got for this one? Keep reading for what we think about this matchup, betting odds, recent form, head-to-head stats, the players we’ll be watching, tactical breakdown, and our picks for the three best bets!

Match Details

• Matchup: CF Monterrey (Liga MX) vs. FC Cincinnati (MLS)
• Date & Time: Thursday, July 31, 7:00 pm ET / 4:00 pm PT
• Location: TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
• How to Watch: Stream exclusively on MLS Season Pass via Apple TV (select US matches on FS1). In Cincinnati, listen on ESPN 1530 (English) or La Mega 101.5 FM (Spanish)
• Competition: Leagues Cup 2025, Phase One (Group Stage, Matchday 1)

Match-Up Overview

Let’s take a quick look at Monterrey and Cincinnati team-wise!

Recent Form & Head-to-Head

How have these two clubs been playing, and what’s their history?

Head-to-Head (all-time)

• Monterrey leads the series 2–0
• Last meeting: 5–0 on aggregate in the 2024 Concacaf Champions Cup
• This will be their first meetup at TQL Stadium

Players to Watch

There’s a ton of talent on this pitch; Monterrey’s experience and technical edge come through in key areas, and Cincinnati’s more direct, aggressive style puts pressure on other areas. Here’s who to keep your eye on!

Monterrey

• Sergio Canales: Central to the attack with precise passing and control in close spaces
• Rogelio Funes Mori: A reliable finisher who consistently converts chances inside the box
• Luis Romo: Links midfield and defense really well, and is great at disrupting counterattacks and initiating transitions

FC Cincinnati

• Luciano Acosta: Orchestrates Cincinnati’s buildup play, regularly finds gaps with well-timed passes
• Matt Miazga: Physical anchor in the back line, critical for defending Monterrey’s aerial entries
• Alvas Powell: Adds width on the right and looks to feed crosses into the box from advanced areas

Betting Odds

If you’re betting on this game, here are the latest odds and lines via DraftKings:

• Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes: -180 | No: +145

Always check the most current odds before betting—lines can move quickly as kickoff nears, and staying informed could be the key to smarter wagers.

Tactical Breakdown

We’ll be watching a battle between control and disruption. Monterrey likes to dictate play with methodical buildup, and Cincinnati is more direct; they’re compact in shape, quick to pressure, and always looking to rush forward once they get the ball.

Our Best Bets

Not sure what to wager? No worries, we have three solid-looking bets below!

Cincy’s Redemption Game? Our Final Verdict

Final Score Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2 – 1 Monterrey

Last year’s blowout? We know Cincinnati hasn’t forgotten. And this time, they’re on their own field, in better form, and have a tighter setup across the back. 

Acosta is still the centerpiece, but Cincinnati also has stronger players around him, so he doesn’t have to go it alone. Monterrey will probably control long stretches of possession, but Cincinnati’s ability to break quickly and capitalize on openings? It makes this a winnable matchup.

We’re backing the home team with the Draw No Bet; it makes the most sense! Cincinnati’s been really strong at home and usually finds a way to finish chances when they have the openings.

Best Bets Recap

• FC Cincinnati Draw No Bet (-105): 8/10 confidence
• Both Teams to Score – Yes (-180): 7/10 confidence
• Over 2.5 Total Goals (-150): 6.5/10 confidence

Before placing your bet, double-check the confirmed lineups, review the latest injury updates, and compare odds across trusted sportsbooks to lock in the best value.

Robot Umpires & MLB Betting: Could Automated Strike Zones Shift Run-Line Bets?

Robot umpires could be coming to an MLB ballpark near you. Did you think that AI was only coming for non-sports jobs? The baseball players are safe for now, as the engineer overlords haven’t figured out how to make a coordinated one.

But the human umps? Their job security isn’t so secure anymore. And we aren’t exactly mad at the thought of automated strike zones. Umpires are human and make mistakes, and strike calls in the MLB still are judgment calls.

One night, a pitch at the knees gets the call, and the next night it doesn’t. It’s all part of the game, but it alters everything from pitch counts to final scores.

MLB has been tinkering with automated strike zones for years, and what started in the independent leagues is now a regular feature at Triple-A, and the league has already tested it in spring training.

Will it be full automation or a challenge-based system? We don’t know, and the MLB hasn’t said. But if it does happen, what will it mean for bettors? And run lines?

When the zone doesn’t change from game to game, pitcher performance, scoring patterns, and betting angles will all look different. So we are gonna look at the early data, what’s been changed at the minor league level, and what bettors should be aware of as the strike zone gets standardized!

What Are Robot Umpires?

If you’re thinking about a cute lil robot standing behind home plate wearing a tiny uniform of the standard dark slacks and short-sleeved polo shirt, we are sorry to tell you that’s not what it is. We were disappointed as well.

A robot umpire is a misnomer. As we said, we aren’t talking about R2D2 chilling at home plate. Nope, it’s an Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) system, and it’s a technology that uses radar or camera tracking to call pitches as balls or strikes with high precision. In practice, the system (like Hawk-Eye or TrackMan) measures a pitch’s location and relays the call to the human umpire’s earpiece instantly. The human umpire still signals the call, but they are just following the machine’s calls.

How Run-Line Betting Works in MLB

Ok, before we get into the betting impact, we need to do a quick refresher on run-line bets. A run-line is baseball’s version of a point spread. In a typical MLB game, the favorite is -1.5 runs (meaning they must win by 2 or more runs to cover), and the underdog is +1.5 runs (they can lose by 1 run and still cover, or, of course, win outright). This 1.5-run spread is almost always used as the default line, which is why you’ll see something like Yankees -1.5 / Red Sox +1.5 with associated odds. It adds extra complexity beyond the moneyline (which is just picking the winner) because it factors in the margin of victory.

How Run-line Bets Differ from ML and Totals

Run-line bets differ from moneyline bets in that you’re not just asking “who will win?” but “who will win, and by how much?”

If the favorite wins 3-2, a moneyline bettor on the favorite cashes in, but a run-line bettor on the favorite loses (since 3-2 is only a one-run win, not covering the -1.5 spread). Conversely, run-line underdog bettors often win bets on close losses. It’s a really popular wager type because it can turn heavy favorites into more profitable bets (if you’re confident they’ll win by 2+), and it gives underdog backers a cushion in a typically low-scoring sport where one run is huge.

Main Betting Factors

There are a lot of factors that influence run-line betting decisions.

• Pitching matchups are paramount; a great starting pitcher can suppress scoring, and that makes it harder for a favorite to pull away by 2 runs.
• Bullpen quality and late-inning tendencies matter if leads get extended or blown.
• Ballpark factors (a game at a hitter-friendly park like Coors Field vs. a pitcher-friendly park like Petco Park).
• The weather (wind blowing out vs. in) can sway expected run totals and thus the likelihood of a big margin.

Bettors also consider umpire tendencies, and we’ve now come full circle! There are umpires who have a reputation for a tight strike zone (favoring hitters and runs), and others who call a wide zone (favoring pitchers and unders).

All of these tendencies can influence scoring: If they call more balls, which results in additional walks, more runs can score. Other umpires can call fewer balls, and that could reduce the number of runs scored. Astute bettors will check who the home plate umpire is and adjust their over/under or run-line bets accordingly.

An analysis of umpire stats found that nearly half of the umps studied in a season showed a bias toward either overs or unders in total runs. For example, in 2010, Fieldin Culbreth’s games went over the betting total ~63% of the time (suggesting a smaller zone/hitter-friendly), whereas Doug Eddings’ games went over only ~33% (a big zone favoring pitchers and lower scores).

Sportsbooks are aware of these patterns and will shade totals for extreme cases, but it’s an extra variable in the betting equation.

The main point is this: human variability in calling balls and strikes is one of those factors that can change an MLB game’s run distribution. A generous strike call in a pivotal moment can kill a potential rally, and a tight zone can extend innings and boost scoring. That’s why a move to an automated strike zone stands to impact betting! It totally eradicates one source of volatility that bettors and oddsmakers have historically baked into betting lines.

Human Umpires’ Impact on Game Outcomes

Human umpires, for all of their experience and training, are not perfect or consistent. Every fan has seen a strike three call on a pitch a foot outside, or a pitcher lose a strike because the ump didn’t like the height or the catcher’s framing.

And inconsistencies aren’t anecdotal; they show up in the data.

In the 2024 MLB season, Statcast data showed that 10.9% of pitches thrown in the rulebook strike zone were called balls by umpires, and 6.3% of pitches outside the zone were erroneously called strikes. In other words, about 1 in every 10 true strikes was missed, and about 1 in 16 balls was mistakenly gifted as a strike. Over a full game with, say, 300 pitches, that’s on the order of 20+ potentially incorrect calls. Each one could change an at-bat outcome, which can snowball into changing innings and final scores.

Different Umpires, Different Calls

There’s also a big variation between different umpires. The strike zone is not actually a fixed rectangle in practice; it’s a human judgment influenced by habit and perspective. A study of umpire strike zones from 2008–2016 found that some umps consistently call many more strikes than others, especially on the edges of the zone.

Veteran ump Bill Miller was shown to call about 1,100 more strikes than the average umpire over a span of years; roughly 4 extra strikes per game, often on the fringes of the zone. He was the quintessential “pitcher’s umpire,” giving pitchers the benefit of the doubt on borderline pitches high, low, inside, and outside.

On the other end of the spectrum, there are umpires like Gerry Davis and Greg Gibson who have notably tight zones (sometimes called “hitter’s umpires”), calling fewer strikes than average, especially around the edges. The difference from one ump to another can be huge: analysis of 2017 data indicated the most pitcher-friendly ump was calling about 10 more strikes per game than the most hitter-friendly ump. That’s a huge factor in how a game might play out, as more strikes generally mean quicker outs, fewer walks, and typically lower scoring.

The tendencies impact not only totals but also how runs are distributed, which ties into run-line outcomes. An umpire with a tiny zone might contribute to more baserunners and potentially more big innings (as pitchers struggle to get strike calls and may have to throw easier pitches over the plate).

But an ump with a really generous zone could keep games tighter by suppressing offense, and teams might score less frequently, perhaps leading to more one-run games rather than blowouts. Bettors track umpire stats: historically, you could find umpire-by-umpire records against the total (over or under) and even how often favorites cover the run line under certain umps. As we said, almost half of the umpires in one sample leaned notably toward either higher or lower scoring games.

Extreme cases like Jim Reynolds (64% of his games went Over the total in 2010) or Greg Gibson (only 22% went Over, meaning 78% Under) show that an ump’s strike zone consistency (or lack thereof) can absolutely influence and change the margins of victory.

Famous (or Infamous) Examples

And of course, there are the headline-grabbing examples of umpire mistakes that altered baseball games. In a nationally televised game in April 2022, veteran ump Angel Hernandez had only 77% accuracy on strikes (well below the ~93% league average) and “rung up” multiple batters on pitches clearly outside the zone.

Phillies hitter Kyle Schwarber famously blew up at Hernandez after a called strike that was nowhere near the zone, and it was a demonstration of how a human umpire can inject chaos into such a crucial moment; blown calls can directly affect whether a team extends a lead or falls behind. Bettors who had the Phillies -1.5 in that game (just as an example) might feel that a missed ball four call, which should have been a walk (but became a strikeout), robbed them of a potential rally to cover the spread.

The human element in umpiring introduces variability in game outcomes, and it’s a variability that skilled bettors try to account for, but with robot umpires? That would be eliminated.

How Robot Umpires Could Change the Game

If MLB does end up changing to automated strike zones, we’d see an immediate and big shift in how games are played. The most obvious? The change is in strike zone consistency.

Why? Because a robo-ump doesn’t “expand” the zone for a pitcher on a hot streak or tighten it because a catcher is bad at framing. It calls the rulebook zone, pitch after pitch, with the same calibration for all. Human umpires call pitches probabilistically on the edges; sometimes a strike, sometimes a ball on identical pitches, whereas an automated system will make the same call every time for a pitch in a given location. Those borderline low-and-away sliders that one ump might call a ball and another a strike will have a uniform verdict.

Less Borderline Discrepancies 

What could this mean in practice? For one, fewer borderline discrepancies. There will be no more “make-up calls” or individual ump decisions where a pitch is a strike in the 1st inning but not in the 9th. Over the course of a game (and season), that should decrease the variability in count outcomes.

A borderline 3-2 pitch with bases loaded will be called correctly, one way or the other. This could lead to less argument-induced drama, but more importantly for competition, it means players will adjust to a stable zone. Hitters won’t have to bother holding up their hand asking, “was that high?” because they know that the machine is precise. Pitchers could attack the exact top/bottom of the zone with more confidence, knowing they’ll get the strike if they hit it (and conversely, knowing there’s no hope of an ump giving them an inch off the plate anymore).

Player Performance

From a performance standpoint, we can only speculate on which types of players benefit or suffer. Let’s think about pitchers first. A strikeout pitcher (one with good velocity or nasty stuff that catches the zone) could see a benefit: if they can paint the real edges, they’ll get those calls consistently.

Some power pitchers throw rising fastballs at the top of the zone that occasionally get ruled balls by a human ump who perceives it as too high, but a robot will call those strikes if they nip the zone, potentially increasing high strike calls. And finesse pitchers or “nibblers” who succeed by getting hitters to chase just outside the zone or by relying on a catcher stealing strikes might lose an edge.

With ABS, a pitch that is two inches off the plate will never be called a strike (whereas a good framer and a friendly ump might have gotten that call before). An aspect that players disliked about full ABS was that it removed the art of pitch framing; catchers could no longer influence calls. Those catchers (and their pitchers) could no longer “steal” strikes on borderline pitches by presentation.

ABS Trials

There’s evidence that in the ABS trials, pitching dynamics did shift. In some early uses of full ABS, walks increased by a lot. MLB executives explained that in Triple-A games with full automation, walks became more prevalent, causing games to drag on longer despite the pitch clock.

Why more walks? Likely because pitchers couldn’t get those generous calls on borderline balls, so hitters were more often awarded walks on close pitches that a human might have called a strike. There are also reports that strikeouts actually dipped with the automated zone in certain minor league samples.

A Baseball America analysis of Triple-A data indicated the strikeout rate went down a little, but the walk rate went up, and that’s not exactly the outcome many expected, but it does suggest the zone called by the robot was tighter (or at least different) than what many umps were calling.

In the International League (Triple-A East), runs per game rose from about 4.98 to 5.50 after introducing ABS, walks increased from 4.0 to 4.8 per 9 innings, and hits ticked up as well. This aligns with the idea that a perfectly enforced zone would favor hitters in some ways, certainly in drawing walks, if not in hitting. It’s worth noting MLB adjusted the strike zone dimensions in the ABS system a few times to try to get the “right” balance, so not all ABS zones are identical. A too-big zone would favor pitchers excessively, a too-small zone vice versa. They’re looking for a happy medium that matches the intended rulebook zone without crushing offense or inflating it.

Another expected effect is a decrease in those game-altering “what if” moments that are set off by bad calls. Think about blow-up innings; sometimes a missed strike three leads directly to mayhem.

If an ump misses a strike call that would have been the third out, the at-bat continues, and the batter hits a 3-run double. With ABS, that third out is called correctly, the inning is over, and the rally is prevented. In theory, fewer big innings will be fueled by umpire mistakes, because those mistakes are gone. This could mean more predictable scoring progressions. It’s not to say that big innings won’t happen (they will, via hits and legit walks), but they won’t happen because an umpire gave a free pass or a free strike.

ABS will also prevent situations where a batter was mistakenly called out on strikes on ball four; those innings will now continue when they should have, possibly creating rallies that were unfairly halted before. The net effect is hard to quantify, but overall? The outcomes should lean more toward what the players earn, instead of what an umpire mis-sees.

Could automated zones lead to more offense or less? The early data and player feedback suggest more offense (more walks, slightly higher on-base, maybe slightly longer games) unless the zone is adjusted. MLB saw that as a negative when the pace of play suffered, which is partly why they currently favor the challenge system (let the human call it and only fix the egregious misses).

But regardless of offensive levels, the key is consistency and reduced variance. The day-to-day fluctuation caused by “which ump is behind the plate” would pretty much vanish if every game had the same calibrated zone or the ability to challenge bad calls.

Implications for Run-Line Bettors

From a betting perspective, a world with robot umpires? It’s a world with one less variable (and one less source of randomness) in each game. Below are 5 big-picture implications for run-line bettors!

Possible Changes in Betting Strategy

Assuming that automated strike zones do become a reality, bettors will have to adjust their strategies! Look below for some changes to think about if it does happen.

What the Data Says So Far (Early Trends)

While we don’t have any major-league data for robot umps, the minor league trials give us some clues. We’ve already talked about the main stats: more walks, possibly fewer strikeouts, and a slight increase in runs were observed in some ABS implementations. But we can recap a few early trends from where it’s been used!

Triple-A 2022-2023

In one Triple-A league, after introducing the automated zone, walks went up around 0.8 per game (per team) and strikeouts were roughly flat or dipped slightly, resulting in about a half-run increase in scoring. This suggests that pitchers couldn’t get as many borderline strike calls, putting more men on base via walks. But it didn’t produce a massive offensive explosion, only a moderate bump. Hitters weren’t all of a sudden teeing off for 10 runs a game; they were just reaching base a little more often via the base on balls.

Atlantic League 2019

In the initial indie-league trial, qualitative reports said players were intrigued but had complaints about certain pitches being strikes that never were before (like breaking balls that clip the very bottom of the zone). Statistically, an article from The Ringer noted that the Atlantic League saw strikeout and walk rates rise slightly when ABS was first used, but overall offense (batting average, hitting) stayed almost unchanged. The shape of offense shifted (more Ks and BBs, fewer balls in play), but it didn’t dramatically alter the runs scored.

Player Reactions

Pitchers and hitters have commented on robot umps in minor league play. A common sentiment from pitchers is frustration at the “weird” strike zone.

Red Sox pitcher Nick Pivetta, after a Triple-A rehab start under ABS, said: “I hate it. It’s terrible. Hopefully it never comes [to MLB]. The strike zone is just weird, it just doesn’t match the baseball.”

Hitters have complained as well about high strikes or breaking pitches that clip the zone late, which are things umps often call balls but ABS won’t miss. This says that there will be an adjustment period for players, and it’s a window where some teams will suffer and others benefit until everyone adapts.

Challenge System Data

MLB’s spring 2025 test of the ABS challenge system revealed some interesting stats, too. Teams only challenged about 2.6% of all called pitches (so 97% of calls stood unchallenged), and about 52% of challenges resulted in overturned calls (meaning the ump was wrong on roughly half of the ones players thought were wrong). Catchers were the most successful challengers (winning 56% of their challenges) compared to pitchers (41%), likely because catchers have the best view and sense of the zone. For bettors, if the challenge system is in play, it means that some of the worst calls will be corrected, but some will still occur (you can’t challenge everything, just a few per game). So the impact on run-lines under a challenge system could be smaller, as it trims the extreme misses but doesn’t make every call perfect. Full ABS would be a bigger step-change.

Runs and Margins

It’s way too early to conclude how margins of victory change. But one could look at the distribution of scores in ABS vs non-ABS games in Triple-A for clues. If ABS games had slightly higher variance in scoring due to more walks, or maybe lower variance due to consistent zones, these are the things that data scientists are studying.

One thing we do know? With human umps, about 28-30% of MLB games historically are decided by one run. If robot umps alter that percentage even a little, it changes run-line outcomes.

Could This Actually Help Bettors?

A consistent strike zone takes one unpredictable element off the table. And for those bettors who rely on data and matchup breakdowns? That’s a very good thing. Fewer surprises behind the plate mean outcomes line up more closely with what the numbers suggest.

But that also cuts both ways! If the zone becomes easier to account for, sportsbooks will adjust quickly, and any short-term edge could dry up, so it could be a lot harder to find mispriced lines.

The shift could make things more approachable for newer bettors. Because there are fewer hidden variables in play, projections become cleaner, and the gap between casual and experienced players might shrink, at least for a little while.

The Robot Umps Are Coming: Is Your Run-Line Strategy Ready?

If we’re being honest, the only thing we love more than a bench-clearing field brawl is when a coach loses their sh*t on an umpire before they’re ejected from the game. We’ll miss that!

But robot umpires remove that human error factor that makes players get in their faces, and that’s a good thing (for the umps and the game as a whole).

Once the strike zone stops changing from night to night? Betting on the margins won’t feel quite the same. The usual ump-driven change in baseball game outcomes could be a thing of the past.

Run-line outcomes will always depend on pitching matchups and lineup strength, but plate discipline and pitcher control will matter more. If and when robot umpires happen, watch how teams adjust in those games! Seeing any trends early on will give you an advantage if this system ever does make it to the show.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction & Preview (July 30, 2025)

Two teams that haven’t battled it out on the hardwood this season finally meet in a matchup! The playoff hopefuls are the Phoenix Mercury, who head to Indiana to take on the Fever. 

First things first, Caitlin Clark is not playing. She’s still sidelined with a groin injury and was ruled out for her fifth straight game. In spite of her absence, the Fever (14-12) is on a two-game win streak and wants to keep it going. Without Clark? Kelsey Mitchell has taken on most of the scoring duties for Indiana.

Phoenix (16-9) is coming off a win over the Washington Mystics; they’ve been killing it on the offense and rebound, and we see them as the more reliable bet because of how well they’ve defended.

Sportsbooks are calling this game pretty even, but the early action is looking like it favors the Mercury side. What else do you need to know? Keep reading to see the latest betting odds, trends, stats, players, and props, our best bets, and why we chose them!

Game Details

• Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–9) vs. Indiana Fever (14–12)
• Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, at 7:00 pm ET
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
• How to Watch: WNBA League Pass, Bally Sports Indiana, local broadcast
• Head-to-Head: The first of three matchups this WNBA season

Betting Odds

The oddsmakers have spoken, and here are the latest betting lines from FanDuel:

Betting Trends & Stats

How have both teams performed at sportsbooks, and what can the recent trends tell us going into the game?

• Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Mercury: 14–11
  • Fever: 13–13
• Totals (Over/Under)
  • Mercury: 12–12–1
  • Fever: 13–13
• Scoring Notes
  • Indiana’s games are averaging around 165.9 combined points.
  • Phoenix has stayed under the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
• Situational Trends
  • Indiana is 3–1 straight up at home over their last four games.
  • Phoenix has won 4 of its last 5 road games.
  • The underdog has covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two squads.

Players & Props to Watch

Because Clark is still out, Indiana’s offense has been relying more on its vets, and Phoenix is on fire with a really balanced core. Here are the players that we are watching on the board and in the poor market!

Game Breakdown & Strategy Angles

Phoenix’s ball control and defensive length could overwhelm an Indiana team that’s still trying to adapt to playing without Clark!

Our Best Bets

What are we looking at for value? Well, we have five angles for this matchup! Here are our best bets:

FYI: Make sure you check our best online sportsbooks as it gets closer to tipoff for any line movement and prop availability!

Supporting Insights & Sharp Angles

• Phoenix is 8–2 when holding a lead after three quarters; Indiana is 3–6 in the same scenario.
• The Fever have allowed the most offensive rebounds in the league, and that’s bad news against Thomas and Sabally’s inside presence.
• The Mercury has scored 80 or more in five of their last six because of spacing and good ball movement.
• Indiana ranks in the bottom five in opponent field goal percentage, making them vulnerable to Phoenix’s early shot creation.
• Market movement and bet volume are trending toward the Mercury against the spread and Over 164.5

Why We’re Backing the Mercury Over the Fever

Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Indiana Fever 74

Phoenix has the more experienced core, and it shows when games are close. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Cloud are leading the half-court sets and controlling the tempo late; they’re better equipped to close out tight matchups than Indiana’s current rotation.

The Fever have issues limiting second-chance points, and it’s an area where the Mercury’s size and rebounding depth (Thomas, Sabally) give them an advantage. Without Caitlin Clark’s rebounding and transition presence? Indiana becomes easier to scout: it forces Kelsey Mitchell into contested looks, and the offense slows way down.

Phoenix’s frontcourt versatility has been a problem for Indiana in the past, and their scoring balance gives them more ways to win than the Mitchell-or-bust approach the Fever are using.

Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these teams, but Phoenix fits the short road favorite role here: deeper, steadier, and way less dependent on one scorer carrying the whole team.

Best Bets Recap

• Phoenix Mercury –3.5 (–108): Confidence: 4/5
• Moneyline: Phoenix ML (–176): Confidence: 3/5
• Total Points: Under 166 (–110): Confidence: 3/5
• Player Prop: Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points (–110):  Confidence: 4/5
• Alt Bet (Sprinkle): Alyssa Thomas Double-Double: Confidence: 3/5

We’re with the Mercury in this one; they have the rebounding advantage, more late-game options, and fewer lineup gaps. They’re in a much better position to close this one out in regulation!

2025 World Series Longshots: Best Value Teams Nobody’s Betting On

Time flies just like one of Aaron Judge’s homers. Yes, that was corny. But that doesn’t make it any less true, and that means the World Series will be here before we know it! 

We don’t know who will end up at the biggest game in baseball, but we never count out the longshots. Who doesn’t love the underdog? And when you bet on one and they pull it off? Cha-Ching! 

The truth is that a majority of casual bettors only focus on the fav teams, like, say, the Yankees or the Red Sox, but that isn’t always the smartest strategy. Why? Because the real opportunity sometimes lies with those underrated underdogs.

And that’s why we are gonna go over the top undervalued longshots to win the 2025 World Series! We’ll do so based on the latest odds, team trajectory, and good betting strategies.

Before we get into it, know this: betting on longshots is high-risk. These are not sure things, as there is no such thing in sports. But a small, calculated wager on a dark-horse team? That’s a fun part of the betting. If you manage your bankroll and expectations, longshot futures bets can kick up your season a notch with big upside potential, but don’t forget that they’re called “longshots” for a reason!)

Here are the 2025 World Series Longshots: the best value teams that nobody is betting on (yet).

What Makes a Team a ‘Longshot?’

Why is something considered a “longshot?” Well, in this case, it’s a baseball team with a low implied probability of winning, and it’s reflected by odds of roughly +3000 (30-to-1) or longer.

The market gives these teams around a 3% (or less) chance of winning it all. They are the clubs that no one expects to become the champs, and it’s because of recent performance, market size, or roster questions. Sportsbooks and the betting public will overlook them, and this means the payoff would be huge if they end up defying the odds.

The factors that can cause a team to be labeled a longshot? An absence of superstar names, a small-market fan base (and thus less betting action), or a mediocre record in the previous season. Public perception and preseason predictions heavily influence futures odds; teams with known players or a winning history get way more respect on the odds board, and up-and-comers or historically unsuccessful franchises have odds that don’t show their real potential.

What are the traits that potential “sleeper” teams have in common? The following things: 

• A Youthful Core with Upside: Longshots usually have younger talent who are on the brink of breaking out. A roster full of emerging stars, like rookie phenoms or recent call-ups, can gel late in the season and overperform expectations.
• An Emerging Ace or Resurgent Bullpen: Maybe the team has a pitcher who is developing into an ace or a bullpen that’s locking teams down.  Strong pitching can carry an underrated team much further than anyone is expecting them to go.
• Deadline Trade Potential: A “sleeper” team might be just one big move away from contention. If the front office has resources or prospects to trade, a midseason acquisition (like adding a power hitter or a No. 2 starter) could alter their outlook overnight.
• Over-performing on a Budget: Usually, longshots are low-payroll or mid-market teams that find ways to win in spite of a lower budget. It could be via great defense, fantastic coaching, or team chemistry; they could be winning games without attracting any media hype.
• Undervalued by Public Perception: Sometimes, a team is a longshot just because the public hasn’t caught on to their improvements. They will be flying under the radar because of a long playoff drought or a lack of marquee names, but their on-field performance is fire
  

A longshot is any team that the market isn’t giving much of a chance, but that doesn’t mean we should count them out. It’s the overlooked clubs that can offer value to bettors who want a little extra risk.

Why Betting Longshots Is a Smart Strategic Play

The thing about futures betting is to find the discrepancies between implied probability and actual upside. 

Every set of odds contains an implied probability of winning. +3000 odds imply about a 3% chance to win the World Series. If you think a team’s actual chances are higher than that (like  5% or more), then that futures bet has value. Longshots are usually where these discrepancies exist; public bias and conservative forecasts can underrate a team’s ceiling. When you bet on a few carefully chosen longshots, you’re saying, “I think these teams have a better shot than a lot of people realize.”

Of course, you should NOT load up your whole bankroll on a 50-to-1 praying for a miracle candidate. The smart play? Balance your portfolio with one or two small bets on high-upside longshots to complement any wagers on the favorites. The beauty of this is that you only need to hit on one longshot out of many to come out ahead. If one 40-1 underdog wins it all, it can cover losses on all the others and then some. It’s this asymmetric payoff that makes longshot betting so attractive; a little can go a really long way!

Historical Longshot Examples

Baseball history has proven that longshots do sometimes win championships. The last six years have given us some great examples of why it’s wise not to just blank the underdogs!

The above examples highlight an important point: the  MLB season is long and unpredictable. Wild-card teams can get hot at the right time, injuries can shuffle the hierarchy, and unsung players can transform into postseason heroes. If you had a feeling about those underdogs and put down a small wager, you would have been handsomely rewarded.

Best Practices

What’s the best way to bet on longshots? Below are the best practices if you take this wager route!

Bet Early But Keep Monitoring

Longshot odds can change dramatically as the season progresses. If you spot an undervalued team early and bet them at, say, +4500, you can gain a huge edge if they surge (because that same team might be +1500 a few weeks later).

• We saw this happen in 2025: the Detroit Tigers opened at +4000 but were bet down to +850 by mid-summer after jumping to a first-place tie. 
• The Milwaukee Brewers were around +3500 in spring and, after a big winning streak, were shortened to +1600.

Early action usually nets the best value, so watch the odds board all season long! If a team hits a slump or has injuries, their odds could drift longer again, and that can create another chance to buy low.

Use Logic, Not Love

Huge odds are always tempting, but make sure you have a rationale that goes deeper than “That would be nice.” Look at a team’s run differential, underlying stats, or second-half schedule. Is there evidence that they could turn things around or sustain their success? Longshot betting should still be grounded in analysis; you’re looking for undervalued teams, not just any team with a pulse. Don’t throw money at hopeless cases; focus on those that have a plausible path to contention.

Manage Risk & Bankroll

By their very nature, longshot bets are less likely to cash, so always treat them as a high-risk portion of your betting portfolio. Keep the wager sizes modest (relative to your standard unit). The goal is that if the bet loses (as most longshots will), it’s a tiny hit to your bankroll. But if it wins? You get an outsized boost. This way, you enjoy the upside without jeopardizing your bankroll stability.

Don’t Be Scared to Hedge

If your longshot does end up making a deep run, you’ll have options to secure profit. If your 40-1 pick reaches the World Series or League Championship Series, you could hedge by betting on the other team or via cash-out features, and that will lock in some winnings regardless of the final outcome. Hedging strategy is a whole topic in and of itself, but it’s good to plan ahead for how you might capitalize on a longshot that goes the distance.

Best 2025 World Series Longshot Picks (as of late July)

It’s only July, so we are concentrating on the five baseball teams with longer odds but have strong value relative to their World Series chances. These are by no means predictions that each will win! They’re worth a speculative wager because the payoff significantly outweighs the risk in our estimation. A common approach is to risk 0.25 to 0.5 units (a quarter or half of your usual bet size) on these types of futures. That way, if even one hits? You’ll make a profit.

Summary Table

The Brewers’ odds moved fast! They went from around +4500 in early July to about +1500–1600 by late July as they surged to the league’s best record!

How to Bet World Series Futures: Final Strategy Tips

Follow these tips if you’re gonna bet on World Series futures!

• Split your bets: Pair a high-payout team or two with a shorter-odds contender.
• Compare odds: Lines jump between sportsbooks, so shop around so you can lock in the best number.
• Stay plugged in: Trades, injuries, and call-ups can and do change the market quickly.
• Log your tickets: Track stakes, payouts, and teams so you know exactly where you stand.

Recommended Longshot Bets for Late July

What do we recommend in terms of longshots? Here’s what we are backing:

• Top Pick | Mariners (+2200‑2500): They have a balanced lineup, their rotation is getting better, and they are still priced like a mid-tier club!
• Top Contrarian | Red Sox (+2900‑3500): The young hitters are stepping up to the plate, pitching upgrades are likely to happen, and sportsbooks haven’t adjusted.
• Solid Value | Cubs (+1400): Chicago has a really strong combo of power and speed, a solid defense, and a lot of room to improve at the deadline.

FAQs About MLB Futures Betting

Okay, it’s the end of July, and even though October is months away, it’ll be here before we know it! Still, it is far enough off that you probably have some questions about how it all works, so here are the FAQs that we get from readers about it.

And if you’re new to betting on futures, our sports betting guide can help you understand the basics before diving into World Series odds.

The Best Futures Can Come with Doubt

As with every sport, the big-name teams hog all of the attention. But that doesn’t mean they’re the only ones worth betting on! The market isn’t always right, and that leaves a window for undervalued clubs to crash the October party. A few under-the-radar teams are still flying beneath pricing corrections, and if and when they make their move? Sportsbooks won’t even hesitate to slash their numbers.

If you see a team that checks enough of the right boxes and the odds haven’t caught up, now’s the time to take your shot. Remember to keep your wagers modest, spread them around, and keep track of where you’re exposed. Futures bets call for patience, but if one of them hits? You better believe it’s worth the wait!

Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction (July 29, 2025)

Two of the WNBA’s highest-scoring talents will face off on the hardwood in a head-to-head on July 29, when the Las Vegas Aces (13–13) take on the Los Angeles Sparks (11–14) at 10 p.m. ET.

The weapons? A’ja Wilson, who ranks second in the league with 21.6 points per game, and Kelsey Plum, who’s on Wilson’s heels at fourth with 20.1.

• The Sparks have turned their season around in the span of two weeks. A five-game win streak has pulled them to 11–14, and they’ve done it by tightening up on the defensive end and finally getting consistent guard play. And with Cameron Brink returning from injury? Los Angeles gets back its best interior defender in the nick of time to try and deal with A’ja Wilson.
• At .500, The Aces still have the best player on the court in Wilson, but the supporting cast hasn’t come through when they’re on the road. Las Vegas has lost four of its last five away games, and spacing issues keep stalling out their offense when Plum or Gray can’t hit from the perimeter.

Both of them are fighting for playoff seeding, but who will fight harder? The Sparks are healthier and playing their best basketball of the season. The Aces want to stop the slide and show they’re still a top-tier force.

We’ve got all of the deets! Keep scrolling to see recent team form and trends, player matchups, X-factors, betting odds, and trends, and our picks for the three best bets!

Game Details & Stakes

• Matchup: Las Vegas Aces (13–13) at Los Angeles Sparks (11–14)
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, at 10:00 pm ET
• Venue: Crypto.com  Arena, Los Angeles, CA
• How to Watch: ESPN+, WNBA League Pass
• Playoff Relevance: Both teams are grouped between the 4th and 8th seeds, making each game critical for seeding positioning.
• Season Series: Tied at 1–1; May 30: Aces 84 – Sparks 69; June 12: Sparks 78 – Aces 70

Recent Form & Team Trends

First up, let’s take a look at how the Sparks and the Aces have been playing as late and any team trends!

Main Player Matchups & X-Factors

Who’s up against whom, and what are the possible X-factors? Here’s what we’re watching out for:

Other X-Factors

• Kelsey Plum’s Shot Volume: She’s been taking on more of the scoring load with defenses collapsing on Wilson. If she keeps creating off the dribble and finding clean looks beyond the arc, Vegas has a secondary scoring outlet that can shift the matchup.
• L.A.’s Bench Support: Jordin Canada brings a lot of intensity at the point of attack and can disrupt passing lanes, and Rae Burrell has been way more reliable from deep in recent games. If that group holds serve? The Sparks won’t have to lean so heavily on their starters.
• Transition Pressure: The Sparks need to push off missed shots and turnovers so they don’t get trapped in Vegas’s half-court pace. If they generate early offense and don’t let the Aces set up, they control more of the game’s direction.

Head-to-Head Breakdown

Next up? The head-to-head stats for both WNBA teams:

• May 30 – Aces 84, Sparks 69: Las Vegas shot 51% from the floor and outrebounded L.A. by 14. Wilson and Plum combined for 45 points as the Aces controlled most of the game.
• June 12 – Sparks 78, Aces 70: Back in Los Angeles, the Sparks tightened their defense, holding Vegas to 38% shooting and forcing 17 turnovers. Dearica Hamby led with 20 and 10.

Main H2H Trends

• The Aces have covered in 4 of the last 6 meetings.
• Unders have hit in 3 of the last 4.
• The home team has won and covered in both 2025 matchups.

Latest Betting Odds

Throwing a wager on this game? We’ve got the latest odds and lines courtesy of ESPN BET:

Odds fluctuate fast, especially near game time. Make sure you’re betting with the most current lines—it might be the edge that turns a lean into a win.

Betting Market & Line Movements

• Spread
  • Opening: Aces –1.5
  • 7/28: Aces –2.5
  • Notes: Early action has backed Vegas despite L.A. being on a win streak
• Moneyline
  • Opening: Aces –145
  • 7/28: Aces –160 | Sparks +135
  • Notes: Vegas is seeing the edge in most projections
• Total
  • Opening: 171.5
  • 7/28: 172.5
  • Notes: A modest bump suggests the expectations of pace and scoring

Public Betting Trends

• Spread: About 62% of bettors are backing the Aces at –2.5
• Moneyline: Around 54% of the handle is on the Sparks, and it’s likely from bettors who are after plus-money value at home
• Total: Bettors are leaning slightly toward the Over, and it’s driven by L.A.’s scoring uptick over the last few games

Our Best Bets

Where do we think the smart money is, and why do we like it? Look below for our three best bets!

Aces vs Sparks Prediction: Can L.A.’s Win Streak Survive the Champs?

Final Score Prediction: Aces 89 – Sparks 85

The Sparks are on a nice run, but most of those wins? They were against lower-tier teams. They haven’t faced a frontcourt presence like A’ja Wilson during that stretch, and Vegas still has the better top-end talent, so we’re backing the Aces to win.

If the Aces defend the interior and force the Sparks into tough looks outside the paint, they’re in a good position to separate down the stretch. L.A. needs a strong shooting night and a big performance from Brink or Canada to keep the score close.

Best Bets Recap

• Aces –2.5 (moderate)
• Over 172.5 (low-moderate)
• Loyd points prop (moderate)

Want to improve your betting results? Check out our expert betting strategies—and explore the top-rated sportsbooks where you can put them into action!

Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Preview | Leagues Cup Opening Match (July 29, 2025)

The Leagues Cup opening match kicks off with Toluca vs. Columbus Crew, and it could be the most exciting game of the first round!

Toluca has been ripping through Liga MX defenses all summer long, and they’ll have home altitude and the fans behind them for the opener. Sure, Columbus is the defending Leagues Cup champs, but they’ve had some bumps on the road here, and Mexico has never been nice to visiting MLS clubs.

Both of these teams are made to score, so this one is setting up to be a back-and-forth goal-fest in group play. And the club that handles the tempo better? They could set the temperature for the rest of the round! And because both are favs to make it to the semifinals, that ups the ante.

Are you ready for some serious soccer? Keep reading for a complete preview, including both teams’ recent form, head-to-head stats, players to watch, the latest betting odds, and our four best bets!

Match Details

• Matchup: Toluca vs. Columbus Crew
• Date & Time: Tuesday, July 29, 7:00 pm ET
• Location: Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio (MLS side home advantage)
• How to Watch: Apple TV’s MLS Season Pass in English; Spanish commentary via Fox Deportes or Univision platforms
• Weather Forecast: It’ll be in the mid-80s and humid; the heat and humidity could have an effect on late-game tempo

Recent Form & Team Context

Let’s talk recent form and what’s been going on with Toluca and the Columbus Crew!

Head-to-Head Trends

How do these clubs stack up head-to-head?

Toluca and Columbus Crew have faced each other only twice competitively before, in the 2010 Concacaf Champions Cup, which ended in a 2–2 draw in the first leg, and Toluca won 3–2 in the second leg to take the tie.

In both of the matches:

• Both teams scored
• Over 2.5 goals hit
• Late goals were decisive, changing the momentum and the result

Across both games, neither side ruled the midfield; the action flowed between end‑to‑end chances and wasn’t a controlled build-up by one team.

Main Players to Watch

We’ll be watching all of the players on the pitch, but there are three names from each team that we’ll be laser-focused on:

Toluca

• Alexis Vega: Toluca’s assist king (8 in Clausura); Vega nailed a hat trick and assisted in a 5–2 win over Necaxa. He’s a threat from open play and in dead-ball situations. 
• Paulinho: Clausura’s top scorer (12 goals), scored in the final, and is vital to Toluca’s attack; he brings size and composure inside the box. 
• Jesús Gallardo: He’s the newly awarded Liga MX Best Full-Back; Gallardo has both forward thrust from left wing-back, with experience at the back.  

Columbus Crew

• Diego Rossi: He’s back to his goal-making ways and linking up really well as part of the Crew’s front line; he’s on a tear as the club’s creative focal point. 
• Darlington Nagbe: This is the Crew’s midfield metronome; when Nagbe controls possession and tempo, Columbus moves super well.
• Wessam Abou Ali: He is Columbus’s new Designated Player from Al Ahly, and gives the Crew a physical edge and another goal threat; Ali just starred with a Club World Cup hat trick. 

Betting Odds & Market Insights

If you’re thinking about betting on the Leagues Cup opener, here are the latest odds and lines from DraftKings:

Sportsbooks are pricing this as an open matchup; the market odds show goals coming from both clubs.

Stay sharp—odds move as the match draws near, and checking the latest lines before betting could be the key to a smarter wager.

Preview Summary: What to Expect

This matchup is looking like a lot of open play with very little midfield congestion. Columbus will try to stretch the field early through Rossi’s movement and Nagbe’s short-passing game; they’ll want to keep Toluca pinned deeper than they want to be. And Toluca will clap back via quick switches and wing overloads through Vega’s service and Gallardo’s late runs.

Second-half fatigue could definitely be a factor; it’s gonna be hot and humid, and both clubs want to dictate the pace. But whoever controls the wide spaces as energy drops could come out on top.

Our Best Bets

It’s about that time! Look below for our best bets; we’ve got three solid picks and a so-so one that could be worth a look.

In-Game Storylines

• Columbus’ opening tempo: They usually press early at home. If Toluca holds firm without overcommitting, they’ll have the space to exploit later in the game.
• Wing exposure: The Crew’s fullbacks push up, and that leaves pockets in behind. Toluca’s wide players (Vega and Gallardo) can turn that flaw into scoring chances.
• Second-half edge: Toluca’s attack doesn’t drop off with changes. If the game’s still even after 70? They’ve got more than enough match-winners waiting in the wings and ready to come on.

Toluca vs. Columbus Crew Final Take

Don’t expect to watch a match that’s decided by control; it’ll be won by whoever can handle pressure better in those broken phases of play. 

Columbus relies on structure and spacing to build their attacks, but they’ve been exposed when play gets iffy. Toluca’s strength lies in exploiting those gaps with direct runs and quick decisions in the final third. You’re not betting on control with this game; you’re betting on execution in tense moments. That’s why the goal markets, and not the winner, are where the real value is!

Best Bets Recap

• Over 2.5 Goals (8.5/10)
• BTTS – Yes (8/10)
• Toluca DNB (+160) (6.5/10 value play)

Final Score Prediction: Columbus Crew 2 – 2 Toluca

Columbus does have the home advantage, but don’t count Toluca out; their shape and counterattack are not to be trifled with!

The over feels like the most stable route, as does the BTTS if the match stays loose defensively.

And if you’re ready to bet on the Leagues Cup opener or any other upcoming matches, make sure you’re using a trusted sportsbook that gives you great odds and fast payouts. Check out our list of the best sports betting sites to compare options.

Impact of 2025 NFL Rule Changes on Betting Lines and Player Props

Listen up, all of you slavishly devoted pigskin punters! There is a new kickoff rule coming down the pike that could affect your betting strategy.

The 2025 NFL season comes with two new rules. One of them is a revamped kickoff format, and the other? Brand new replay/challenge protocols.

Yes, these are safety measures for players, but they’ll also change up field positions and the game’s pace in every quarter. And you better believe that these rule changes will mean point totals, prop lines, and live odds could change in surprising ways.

But don’t panic! We are going to go over all of it, including how the new kickoff rules and replay changes work, and then apply that knowledge to how you should alter your over/under wagers, special-teams props, and in-play strategies. Let’s blitz this, baby!

Quick Overview of the 2025 Rule Updates

The Replay Assist program is getting stronger. On-site replay officials are now able to proactively fix certain penalties (defenseless hits, face-mask grabs, horse-collar tackles, tripping, and running-into-the-kicker). 

Coaches retain red flags to challenge plays, but only if a flag was thrown on the field in the first place; they can’t challenge to draw attention to an uncalled foul. The league is locking down some fouls under replay review while discouraging needless coaches’ challenges. The rule adjustments are meant to help with game flow and decrease injury risks.

New Kickoff Rule

How does the new kickoff rule operate? Look below:

• Touchbacks at the 35: Starting in 2025, any kickoff that’s caught or downed in the end zone will be spotted at the 35-yard line, not the 25. A five-yard jump forces teams to think twice about easy touchbacks.
• Compact Alignment: The ball is kicked from midfield toward a “setup zone,” which is where return teams can have at most three players just ahead of the restraining line. By lining up like a regular play and restricting space/speed, the NFL expects more return attempts (and way less high-speed collisions).
• Onside Any Time (If Trailing): Any team that is trailing can declare an onside kick on any kickoff. This gives teams a weapon earlier in the game. The kicker still has to bounce the ball short (it will be kicked from the 34 instead of the 30-yard line per reports) to attempt a recovery.

Coach‑challenge Change

And what’s with the whole coach challenge thing? Here’s how that will work:

• New limits: The 2025 rulebook narrows the scope of how and when coaches can use the red flag. Teams are now limited to just one challenge per half, regardless of if it’s successful or not. A failed challenge still costs a timeout, but the biggest change? Coaches can only challenge plays where a penalty was already called on the field. They can’t use challenges to argue for missed calls or demand new flags after the fact.

NFL Executive VP of Football Operations Troy Vincent explained the change like this: “We’re trying to remove unnecessary delays while still allowing replay to correct egregious errors. If no flag was thrown, that’s the call; the replay booth won’t be used to manufacture one.”

So, if a pass interference or personal foul isn’t flagged live, coaches have zero recourse. That erases the gray area and cuts down on throwaway challenges, as it forces coaching staffs to be way more selective with their one shot per half.

The Replay Assist Program

The instant replay involvement is being expanded for safety calls as well, and it looks like this:

Replay Assist: The league’s system for booth-initiated reviews now has broader authority over safety-related fouls. Replay officials can step in to correct face masks, horse-collar tackles, defenseless receiver hits, tripping, and roughing the kicker, even if the on-field refs happen to miss them.

NFL Referee Committee Chair Perry Fewell told ESPN: “We’ve given replay assist a bit more authority when it comes to player safety. But that’s a booth-driven correction, not something coaches can trigger. The goal is faster, cleaner outcomes, not dragging the game down.”

The adjustment means there will be fewer interruptions from sideline challenges and more consistent pacing, particularly in moments where late-game rhythm used to be interrupted by questionable red flags. What does this mean for bettors? A smoother clock flow in halves with no replay-worthy safety fouls!

Kickoff Rule — Betting Impact Breakdown

The new kickoff rules will undoubtedly reverberate through point spreads, totals, and props. In 2024’s test run, the changes led to a historic scoring bump: the league averaged 45.8 points per game, up from 43.5 in 2023. Returns also jumped; NFL data projects a 65–75% return rate once touchbacks are at the 35. In betting terms, more returns generally mean more possessions and better starting field position! Below are the effects it will have on betting.

Over/Under Point Totals

The change in kickoff structure isn’t just a cosmetic thing; it cuts into the number of splash plays that used to sneak totals over the number. In past years, a surprise return or botched coverage could flip a slow first quarter into a 14-point swing. That volatility has been evened out. The new alignment keeps coverage teams close to the returner and limits high-speed collisions, which means most returns start around the 25–30 yard line without a lot of drama. So, while returns will be more frequent, they’ll be way less explosive.

And that creates a strange betting paradox. You’d think more returns would mean more points, and they did in theory during the 2024 test run. The league saw a modest uptick in average points per game (from 43.5 in 2023 to 45.8 in 2024), and part of that was tied to better starting field position. But it wasn’t because of long touchdown returns; it was because offenses got the ball at the 30+ instead of the 25.

Early game totals, in particular, are worth watching. First quarter and first-half over/unders usually lean conservative because coaches start out cautiously. But when a team starts a drive near the 35 instead of the 25, and doesn’t burn 30 seconds letting the kickoff bounce into the end zone? The chance of getting a field goal out of that first possession goes up. That’s where the early scoring lines can drift upward.

If you want to compare the pre- and post-rule totals, below is how it looked across sample games:

The expected outcome isn’t that games are all of a sudden shootouts;  it’s that the bar is raised. With better field position and fewer time-draining touchbacks, the average drive becomes more productive. That can push totals upward without changing the look or feel of the game. If sportsbooks hang totals at 43.5–44.0 in the first couple of weeks, you could be looking at value on the over when two average offenses face off and field position tips them over the edge.

Player Props

Kick return props will also have a reset. In past seasons, most sportsbooks priced “longest kickoff return” or “total kick return yards” based on volatility alone; all it took was one busted lane for someone to run 60+ yards. But with the new kickoff setup? That kind of play is going to be the exception, not the rule. Returns are happening more often, but the average yardage per return is coming down. That changed how you should approach prop betting around kickoff plays.

In 2024’s trial run of the new kickoff formation, teams returned kicks on about 78% of opportunities, up from just 38% from 2023. That’s a massive increase in volume. But the average return distance hovered around 22–24 yards, compared to 26–27 in the prior format. The compressed setup, with both coverage and blocking players aligned five yards apart at the 40 and 35, makes it harder to find big seams. You get short, frequent returns. Not breakaway plays.

So what does that mean for props? For starters, “Longest Kick Return Over 35.5 Yards,” which was a common line in 2023 and 2024, will feel inflated in most matchups. That under is live unless you’re dealing with a known burner or a soft special teams unit. Sportsbooks that haven’t adjusted will get caught pricing those lines on outdated assumptions.

Where it gets really interesting is with volume props. If you’re seeing “Total Kick Returns Over 3.5” per team or “Kick Return Yards Over/Under 85.5” as an individual prop, you have some nice opportunities. Because touchbacks now give up the 35-yard line, most kickers are avoiding booming it through the end zone. That means returners are fielding the ball inside the 5 or on a short hop and taking it out. More returns equal more yardage, even if the yards-per-return stay modest. Those props are more stable and easier to handicap than they used to be.

If you’re targeting props in this new landscape, fade the splash plays and bet into the volume. Go under on the longest return. Go over the number of returns. And if a book hangs a lazy prop like “Player X Over 110.5 return yards,” know that it now takes 5+ returns to get there; it’s not one big one and done.

Live Betting Opportunities

Returns are more controlled, more repeatable, and more average. And that’s an absolute gift for live bettors. If you know that every drive is starting between the 28 and 35-yard line, and you’re not worried about a 103-yard score coming out of nowhere, it’s so much easier to time your entries.

In 2024, the average drive following a kickoff lasted 5.7 plays and covered about 32 yards, compared to just 4.8 plays and 27 yards the year before. That small change opened up live total overs in second quarters where scoring pace had dipped; the drive math made it more likely that a basic possession could generate a field goal or flip field position.

What this also means is that live lines adjust more slowly. In the first quarter, if the opening drives don’t feature big returns or turnovers, totals may drop a few points from the pregame number. That can be the moment to strike: the field position edge hasn’t gone away, but the market is reacting like it has.

Same goes for end-of-half sequences! Without kickoff penalties or touchbacks eating up time, teams are getting cleaner setups for their two-minute drills. That favors late-half overs and “next score” props when the market isn’t priced aggressively.

And don’t forget the onside scenarios. Under the 2025 rules, teams can declare an onside kick at any point in the game, as long as they’re behind. That introduces a brand new wrinkle into second- and third-quarter live betting. If a team is down 10 and just scored, you have to consider the real chance that they’ll try to steal a possession. Live ML odds might not price that possibility in until it’s too late. If you’re paying attention, you can beat the sportsbook to the number!

Challenge Rule — Betting Consequences

The new challenge restrictions change how the game is paced, and not just when the clock runs, but when it doesn’t stop. Coaches get one challenge per half. That’s it. They can’t challenge missed penalties. The replay booth can step in, but only for player safety fouls. That removes several of the most common delays that used to slow down second quarters, kill late-half drives, or give teams time to reset. And with fewer stoppages, the pace picks up, and that will change totals and in-game betting windows!

Over/Under Point Totals

Games now run with fewer breaks, and that’s good news for everyone who thinks that football games are way too long. There are more reviews of missed DPI. No more stall-outs after a third-down spot.

That means uninterrupted possessions, fewer wasted plays, and a decrease in clock drain without movement.

Totals in the 43–46 range are now vulnerable to getting passed, and not from breakaway scoring, but from time no longer being eaten up by delays. Fewer stoppages = more usable seconds = a few more plays. If a drive gets two extra snaps because the clock wasn’t frozen for a sideline flag, that’s usually enough to get into field goal range. Sportsbooks might raise numbers in high-total games, but mid-tier matchups are where these changes will be seen the most.

Live Lines & In‑Game Derivatives

Stoppages used to control a game’s momentum, but not anymore! Coaches would use challenges to break a drive’s rhythm, kill the tempo after a turnover, or burn time for a late-half clock reset. Those tools? Bye! That changes how live totals and in-play props behave.

Fewer pauses mean that live lines move faster, and there will be reduced corrections. If a team picks up tempo, there’s no timeout or challenge to slow it down, and the sportsbook won’t have time to adjust it mid-drive. Time-based props (“plays in Q2,” “next team to score”) become more reliable. You’re betting into pace, not volatility.

Combined Effects — Line Movement & Player Props

The kickoff and replay rule changes don’t only affect isolated markets; they will reshape how totals and props are built across entire slates. Fewer return touchdowns. Fewer stoppages. Drives that start closer to midfield, and way less timeouts wasted on questionable flags. Add all that together, and you get a different game, and it’s one that sportsbooks now have to account for in pregame lines and prop combos.

For totals, this creates a compression effect. Games with passive special teams and low-tempo offenses might see their over/unders drop by two to three points compared to 2024, particularly if neither team has a return specialist that’s worth watching. But in matchups where both teams are likely to return kicks and burn through clean drives without delay? You’ll see totals hold or even go up, and not because of scoring, but because the clock isn’t being stopped as much.

Props are being grouped differently as a result, too. You’ll see pairings that never used to exist, like return stats linked with officiating trends. Football betting sites are now experimenting with lines like the ones below:

• “Total Kick Return Yards + First-Half Challenges: Over/Under 88.5”
• “More: Kickoff Returns or Accepted Penalties?”
• “First Special Teams Play to Exceed 25 Yards OR First Booth Review?”

The above markets show the fact that kickoff returns are now predictable in frequency but less volatile in yardage, and reviews will happen less but will still be tied to fixed foul types.

This is how a typical adjustment could look with different matchup profiles:

If you’re betting on pregame totals or combo props, the chasm between how sportsbooks modeled these games in 2024 and how they unfold in 2025 is where the value lives. Pay attention to which teams keep the red flag in their back pocket and which ones let kickoffs come out of the end zone; those are the games where betting lines haven’t totally caught up to what’s happening on the field!

Four Betting Strategy Tips

Want some tips for betting in this new age of the NFL? We got you!

FAQs

Bet you have a lot of questions about these rule changes (do you see what we did there?). We put together a few of the most common FAQs that should cover the most important things about how they’ll impact betting lines and player props!

Adapting Your Strategy for 2025 NFL Lines

The rules have literally changed, and the market hasn’t caught up to all of it. Some totals are still padded by last year’s assumptions. Props are being posted without accounting for how return volume or reduced stoppages recalculate the drive structure. If you’re betting 2025 lines like it’s still 2024? You’ll be left in the dust. Below, we tell you how to fix that!

Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Prediction (July 28, 2025)

The Yankees will host the Rays for a three-game series that begins on July 28 at 7:05 pm ET!

Tampa Bay is heading to the Bronx, where they’re hoping to stop their losing streak (they’ve lost 7 of their last 10 games). NY has fared a little better; they lost the first 2 games against Philly but won the third 4-3.

Drew Rasmussen will be back on the mound after nearly 14 months of recovering from elbow surgery. He’ll most likely be limited, but Tampa’s hoping he can get through the lineup once without giving up much. But the Yankees still have the deeper lineup and a bullpen that’s logged fewer innings this week. If Rasmussen can’t give length? It puts a lot of pressure on Tampa’s middle relief.

Playoff positioning is at stake, y’all! Keep reading to see starting pitcher stats, the latest betting odds and lines, main storylines, our four best bets, and our final score prediction!

Game Details

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays (53‑53) vs. New York Yankees (57‑48)
• Date & Time: Monday, July 28, 7:05 pm ET
• Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
• How to Watch: YES Network (Yankees), Bally Sports Sun (Rays), MLB.tv
• Forecast: Clear with mostly sunny skies with temps in the low to mid 90s, but it’ll cool down to the 80s during the game. There’ll be light winds from the east-northeast that should have minimal influence on fly balls.

Starting Pitchers & Matchup Insights

Who’s throwing in Game 1? The Rays are sending out Drew Rasmussen, and the Yanks will have Carl Schlittler on the hill. Look below for a breakdown of each starter’s stats!

Advantage

Rasmussen has a clear advantage in experience and command. His cutter-sinker mix keeps right-handers at bay, and he doesn’t give up a lot of base runners via walks. If the Rays let him work into the sixth? He can neutralize the top half of the Yankees’ order. Schlittler looked really composed in his debut, but he hasn’t faced a team that can stack up solid lefties like Tampa does.

If Tampa stretches Schlittler’s pitch count, the Yankees could be looking at bullpen duty by the fifth inning. Rasmussen has the advantage because of his command and track record against right-handed hitters, and if the Rays give him the support, he’s in a solid spot to work through six.

Betting Odds & Market Movement

If you’re gonna bet on this game, look below for the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:

Check the most recent odds before betting—lines can move as game time nears, and staying informed could be the difference between a win and a miss.

Line Movement

• The Yankees ML opened around –175 and moved to –196 and is now down to -120; sportsbooks are reacting to steady money on New York and a possible pitching advantage.
• The total dropped from 9.0 to 8.5; early bettors are likely leaning under based on the lineup form and weather.

Betting Splits

• A lot of public bets are leaning hard toward the Yankees’ moneyline because, well, they’re the Yankees.
• The Rays +1.5 and the Under have drawn extra interest from sharper bettors; the movement shows there is a split between casual and sharper action.

Storylines to Watch

What are we watching for in this one? The following factors!

• Rasmussen’s First Start Back – After a long recovery, Rasmussen returns to a tight playoff race. He doesn’t have to go deep, but how good he looks in the first few innings will say a lot about how ready he really is.
• Schlittler’s Second Test – The Yankees are throwing the rookie into the lion’s den. His debut went really well, but Tampa’s hitters work deeper counts and can expose command lapses if he gets behind early.
• Bullpen Balance – New York gave their late-inning arms a workout over the weekend, and Tampa pretty much stayed out of high-leverage spots. That disparity could come into play if this turns into a six-inning game.
• AL East Stakes – The Yankees are trying not to slip behind in the rankings, and the Rays can’t afford many more losses if they want to stay in the Wild Card chase.
• Lefties vs. the Bronx Dimensions – Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, and any other Tampa lefties in the lineup could benefit from that short porch in right field. One solid swing could change the game!

Our Best Bets

Who and what do we think are the best bets for the game? Here are the four angles that we feel have the most value!

How to Bet on the Rays vs. Yankees Game

We’re backing NY, but that Moneyline? It’s inflated. Rasmussen has the pitches in his arsenal to stall the Yankees’ best hitters, and that puts the Under 8.5 in play as the better angle. If the game stays scoreless through three? Then we’re talking live totals that could give you extra value!

Best Bets Recap

• Under 8.5 Runs (–118); Confidence: ★★★★☆
• Yankees Moneyline (–196); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
• Rays +1.5 Run Line (–142); Confidence: ★★★☆☆
• First 5 Innings Under 4.5; Confidence: ★★★★★

Wanna bet smarter? You can use our sports betting strategies, and you can find out where to do it on our best sportsbooks page!

Final Score Prediction: Yankees 4, Rays 2

This game won’t be a blowout like we saw with the first two in the Yankees/Phillies series this weekend (sorry, NY fans, but the Phils whooped y’all), but the Yankees will take it over the Rays.