New England Patriots vs. New York Giants Preview & Prediction (August 21, 2025)
In the last official preseason game, two East Coast teams will face off on the gridiron on Thursday night at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
That’s the home turf of the New York Giants (we know, it makes no sense their stadium is in NJ), who host the New England Patriots.
Kickoff is at 8 pm ET, and positions (aka jobs) are in jeopardy; the next roster deadline is on Tuesday. Even though preseason games aren’t counted toward the regular NFL season stats, they definitely matter for who will play and who’ll get the ax.
Both are undefeated so far (2-0), and this is the penultimate warm-up game before the Week 4 starters rest. The coaches are keeping playbooks close to their vests, but there are some clues we can get from the game as well as some betting value.
Keep reading to see the game overview, the latest betting odds, lines, and trends, main matchups, the x-factors, how the game could flow, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details & Stakes
- Matchup: New England Patriots (2-0) vs. New York Giants (2-0)
- Game Details: Thursday, August 21, at 8:00 pm ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- How To Watch: Streaming on Prime Video nationally; WCVB‑5 in Boston, WNBC‑4 in New York
- Team Records: Both are 2–0 in preseason games
Game Notes
- The Patriots are using this game to test out their backup quarterback depth after really good outings from Bailey Zappe and Malik Cunningham in the first two preseason games.
- The Giants are expected to give rookie Jaxson Dart another look after he impressed everyone with his accurate passing and mobility in Weeks 1 and 2.
- Both teams are focusing on roster battles at WR4–WR6 and in the running back rotation, which are the areas that usually drive second-half scoring and make yardage props worth tracking.
Betting Odds
Feeling like you want to put down some money on this game? ESPN BET has these listed as the current odds:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Patriots | +6.5 (-110) | +250 | Over 37.5 (-115) |
Giants | -6.5 (-110) | -300 | Under 37.5 (-105) |
Insights
- Spread at –6.5 suggests books see a clear advantage for the Giants, and that could be due to QB confidence, depth, or home-field edge.
- The total at 37.5 matches up with the usual preseason norms under the simplified scoring and rotating units.
- The Moneyline is leaning Giants –280, which makes them the safer bet if you’re leaning the outcome over margin, but the Patriots at +230? This is a good value play if you’re backing a close game upset!
Betting Trends to Watch
When you look back at recent preseasons, both teams show patterns against the spread and on totals that give us some solid context for Thursday night’s game!
Team Trends (Preseason ATS & Totals)
How have New England and New York fared in their August games? Look below for scoring trends and betting results.

New England Patriots
- They’ve covered in 5 of their last 6 preseason games.
- 4–2 to the Over across those games.
- The Patriots have averaged 22.3 points per preseason game since 2023.
- The second halves have been the most productive; Zappe and Cunningham have been extending plays.

New York Giants
- The Giants have split their last 6 preseason games ATS (3–3).
- 4–2 to the Over in their last 6 at home.
- Their last 5 preseason outings have averaged 41.6 total points.
- Opened with points on the first drive in 3 of the past 4 preseason games.
- The combined preseason scoring average for the Giants and Patriots in 2025 sits at 48.5 points per game.
- The Over has hit in 6 of the last 8 combined preseason games between New England and New York.
- The first-half Overs are 4–1 during their preseason games this year.
- The opening total of 36.5 has been bet up to 37.5–38.5 at most sportsbooks; early money has clearly leaned to the Over.
- The spread opened Giants –3.5 and has gone as high as –6.5, which signals the expectations around quarterback rotations and depth chart usage.
- Since 2022, home teams in Week 3 of the preseason have covered the spread 61% of the time, and the trend has been stronger when the line is set at less than a touchdown.
- Preseason totals set below 39 points have gone Over 58% of the time.
Main Matchups, X-Factors & Game Flow Predictions
Neither coach will use this game as a showcase for their starters; it’s a proving ground for quarterbacks who are fighting for snaps, receivers battling for roster spots, and defensive units trying to hold it together once the rotations start. How those depth players perform will affect both the scoring pace and who is in control after halftime!
Quarterback Outlook
- Bailey Zappe (Patriots) will handle the pocket snaps, and Malik Cunningham will get designed runs and broken-play chances. That combo usually makes the second half messy for opposing defenses once the game slows down and backups are left on the field.
- Jaxson Dart (Giants) is set to start, and he’s demonstrated touch on intermediate throws and can get out of bad spots when protection isn’t there. Tommy DeVito should follow, which gives the Giants a more solid but less dynamic look.
Coaching Strategy
- Belichick: Coach B uses Week 3 as a sorting ground; he’ll keep the playbook basic and use the game to decide which bottom-roster players stick. Don’t expect to see much of Mac Jones or the main starters.
- Daboll: He likes to open preseason games with some extra tempo. New York has scored early in three of their last four, and it’s likely to deploy another fast start before pulling the vets. That makes the first-half total worth a look!
Positional Spotlight
- Wide Receivers: Both teams are testing out their fringe speed options and slot receivers. Against second- and third-string corners, those matchups can turn into chunk plays or coverage busts that extend drives.
- Defensive Depth: New England’s second unit has held up really well and has been able to limit explosive plays. The Giants’ reserve corners have had a hard time staying disciplined, and that gives the Patriots’ backups a chance to finish drives once the starters are rotated out.
Our Best Bets
We’ve got pigskin picks! Look below for the four angles that we feel are the best bets for this one:
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Over 37.5 | 8/10 | Both teams have been scoring, and defensive calls will stay basic. Recent preseason games have leaned higher on totals. |
Giants –3.5 (avoid –6.5) | 6.5/10 | At –3.5 to –4.5, New York’s QB rotation and home field are enough to back them. At –6.5? This line feels a little stretched. |
First Half | Total | 7/10 | With starters and primary backups expected to play early, the opening half should feature more offense than the second. |
Austin Hooper Over Receptions | Theo Johnson Over Receptions | 6/10 | Hooper has gone Over in 10 of his last 11, Johnson in 7 straight; both are reliable short-yardage targets in these offenses. |
Make sure to check the latest odds and live betting markets before kickoff, and explore our list of top-rated online betting sites for the best value.
Preseason Picks: Don’t Sleep on the Overs!
Both teams come into this game 2–0, and this game will concentrate on depth evaluations instead of on extended starter runs. And that gives us a better read on who will actually decide the outcome: it’s quarterbacks like Zappe, Cunningham, and Dart, and some receivers who are trying to secure their spots on the roster.
The Over 37.5 is still the best angle. Why? Because defenses will stick to simple calls, that leaves room for blown coverages and short fields once the rotations start. Giants –3.5 is worth a look if you can get that number, but anything past –6 erases the value.
Preseason results can hinge on a one small mistake, like a turnover, a coverage bust, or a QB substitution. That’s why bet sizing is so important! Keep the action smaller than you would in a regular-season game, and take advantage of live betting if the early flow of the game doesn’t match up to what you thought it would be.
Best Bets Recap
- Over 37.5 (8/10)
- Giants –3.5 (6.5/10)
- First Half Over 18.5 (7/10)
- Hooper or Johnson Reception Props (6/10)
Final Score Prediction: Giants 24, Patriots 20
The opening quarters will be all about the offense, and once the starters sit, the second half will be the backups coming onto the field; they are fighting to make the team. A few explosive plays from the receivers who’re buried on the depth chart could be what drives this game past the posted number!
Why Winning Streaks Can Be Dangerous (And How to Handle Them)
Winning feels so dang good. It’s a high like no other, and when you’re on a hot streak at a casino? You feel pretty close to untouchable.
Never experienced one? In gambling terms, it just means a run of consecutive wins; maybe you hit a few parlays in a row or keep drawing winning hands at the poker table. And although everyone loves to win, getting them back-to-back can mess with your mind. Success comes with a rush of confidence and euphoria, and that, my friends, can cause impulsive decisions and distorted thinking if you’re not really careful. Winning can make you feel on top of the world, but it can also seriously cloud your judgment if you don’t keep it in check.
That’s why it’s so important to know the psychological and strategic dangers of winning streaks, and how you can stay in control when Lady Luck is on your side. We’ll get into why that “can’t lose” feeling is a trap, talk about the most common mistakes bettors make during hot streaks, and give you some tips to handle your wins like a pro. And when you’re on a hot one? You’ll be able to enjoy it without slamming back into earth from your own personal cloud nine.
The Psychology of Winning Streaks
When you’re winning, you can feel like you’re invincible. But guess what? You’re not; far from it. That’s your brain playing tricks on you, and it’s all psychological. Let’s chat about the psychology at work during a hot streak!
Every time you win, your brain gets a hit of dopamine, which is the same chemical that makes people feel good when they eat an amazing chocolate truffle (or the cocoa of your choice) or get a lot of likes on a social media post.
And that dopamine high doesn’t only make you happy; it ramps up your motivation and risk-taking drive. A winning streak puts you in a state of “I need more of this!” It makes you feel safer taking bigger risks because that rush from winning is telling you everything is going swimmingly. The chemical high can cause you to keep betting when a cooler-headed person would stop.
Success can be a super sneaky thing! After a couple of big wins, you may start believing that you’ve somehow cracked the code or have a special talent, even if luck was the main role. Psychologists call this an illusion of control, and that’s when winners believe their skill is the primary reason for success, even in games of chance. But it’s variance (random chance) at work; it just feels “invisible” when it’s working in your favor. Overestimating your edge can cause you to make bets you wouldn’t normally dream of, and it’s all because you think you’re untouchable.
Winning can also screw with how you interpret info. If you had a hunch about a sports team or a strategy and it keeps paying off, you’ll treat those wins as proof that you were right all along. This is confirmation bias; you emphasize evidence that confirms your beliefs and ignore evidence of plain old luck. A sports bettor could win three NBA bets in a row with an unorthodox strategy and conclude, “See, I know what I am doing!” while downplaying or straight-up ignoring the role of lucky breaks. This bias can blind you to the reality that luck was a major factor, and then you could double down on what is a flawed approach.
A hot streak triggers those feel-good chemicals and cognitive biases that can fool you into taking way bigger risks and assuming you’ve got an advantage that you don’t really have. It’s like your brain throwing a party for itself after each win. It’s fun, but it’s definitely not conducive to careful decision-making in gambling!
Common Mistakes Bettors Make During a Hot Streak
Okay, next up? The most common boo-boos that bettors make when they’re on a winning run!
Increasing Bet Sizes Too Fast
After a few wins, a lot of bettors begin to up their stakes, sometimes aggressively. The mindset is “I’m on a roll, so let’s do this and double the bet!” You justify it by thinking you’re playing with “house money” or that you’ve unlocked a new level of skill. But in reality, you’re just increasing your risk.

Research in poker psychology notes that during heaters (winning runs), players will start taking on higher stakes or longer sessions because they feel invincible. That invincible feeling can cause you to bet far more than your bankroll can handle, putting you in danger when luck swings, and it will swing back in the opposite direction. Dopamine-fueled excitement can override your usual risk filters, so you feel safe taking on more risk even when it’s not a strategic move.
Chasing Bigger Wins or Exotic Bets
Success can make you greedy. It’s tempting to branch out into riskier, more exotic bets (like long-shot parlays, huge accumulators, or high-variance casino games) because you “can’t seem to lose.” Maybe you started with straight bets, and now you’re throwing money at 10-leg parlays or side bets on the roulette table. This “go big or go home” urge often ends badly. One moment you’re up big, and the next you’ve lost those gains on a moonshot bet that you normally wouldn’t touch if you weren’t riding a high. Chasing an even bigger score can quickly turn a hot streak into a cold dose of reality.
Ignoring the Research or Abandoning Strategy
When every pick is coming up roses, some bettors get lazy about the homework they got there. If you usually analyze stats or stick to a certain betting system, a hot streak can lure you into thinking, “I’ve got a golden gut – who needs analysis?” You might skip the usual research, ignore your established strategy, or stop keeping records because “clearly it’s all working.”
- In poker terms, players stop reviewing hands or studying when they’re winning.
- In sports betting, you might stop line-shopping or checking injury reports. This lapse can be costly.
Ironically, one of the riskiest parts of a winning streak is how quickly it makes people abandon the habits that gave them an edge in the first place. Riding the wave feels more important than sticking to the game plan, but that short-term mindset can wreck your long-term results.
Getting Emotionally Attached to the Wins
A string of wins can make you a little too happy. You might start feeling entitled to win. Thoughts creep in like “I’m supposed to win because I’m on fire,” or “I can’t lose now.” The moment the streak falters, frustration hits hard – you get irritated at even a small loss, or you chase losses immediately because losing feels “wrong” after so much success.

This emotional attachment to winning can cloud your judgment; instead of evaluating a loss rationally, you might take it personally (“How dare reality intrude on my streak!”). Staying humble is tough when you’ve been basking in glory, but losing your cool the second things go south is a surefire way to give back your winnings.
Mismanaging Bankroll Because of Overconfidence
Perhaps the most dangerous mistake is simply throwing sound bankroll management out the window. When overconfidence kicks in, you start thinking the usual rules don’t apply to you. Maybe you stop setting loss limits, or you bet far more per game than the 1-5% of bankroll that sensible bettors stick to. You might even dip into funds you shouldn’t, convinced you’ll win it back because you’re just that good.
A famous example is poker pro Daniel Negreanu: after a hugely successful year, he entered the next year feeling “too good” and got sloppy with his money, losing $2 million by playing too loosely and not caring about rebuys.
The lesson? Even the best can blow up their bankroll when they start believing they can do no wrong. Don’t let a hot streak trick you into betting money you can’t afford to lose or deviating from your bankroll plan, and that’s how fortunes vanish overnight.
The above mistakes? They can turn a winning streak from a blessing into a curse. If you catch yourself doing any of them, take a break! It might save you from having to give all those winnings right back to the casino.
Real-World Examples of Streaks Gone Wrong
Hot streaks have a really nasty habit of lulling bettors into a false sense of security. History (and lots of casino stories) is full of cautionary tales of streaks that went spectacularly wrong.
The Gambler Who Couldn’t Lose,’ Until He Did
There’s the story of a bettor who started with a modest bankroll and doubled down after each win, turning a few hundred dollars into tens of thousands. Each victory convinced him to press harder – after all, he hadn’t lost yet. Inevitably, his luck turned. On one big roll of the dice (or one big bet on a game), the streak ended, and he lost everything he’d built up in one go.
While this anecdote plays out in different forms every day in casinos all over, the ultimate real-world example is Archie Karas. Karas is famous for the longest documented gambling win streak ever: he ran $50 up to $40 million in the early 1990s; it was an unbelievable heater by any standard, only to lose it all back within months. He bet higher and higher, until the inevitable downturn wiped out his fortune. It’s an extreme case, but it shows that no streak lasts forever, and if you keep pushing your luck without restraint, you can go from winner to broke in a heartbeat.
Even the Pros Get Burned
Don’t think that only casual gamblers fall for the winning-streak trap. Even experienced professionals can let a hot hand go to their head. We mentioned Daniel Negreanu – one of the world’s top poker players – who openly admitted that “winner’s tilt” after a great year caused him to get complacent and blow a $2 million downswing. He “felt too good” and started playing recklessly, proving that success can sow the seeds of failure. Another example: celebrated sports bettor Billy Walters (often considered one of the best) reportedly had moments where a run of good luck led to a big loss when he overextended on a bad bet, reminding everyone that no amount of expertise can fully guard against overconfidence. The common thread is that a streak can make anyone—even a seasoned vet—start making decisions on tilt, whether it’s outright gambling too much or being “goofy” with their strategy.
What can we learn from these cautionary tales?
- First, momentum is in no way any kind of an invincibility pill. A streak gives the illusion that you’ve found the secret, but you’re still subject to the laws of probability. Sorry, but you’re not special!
- Secondly, the higher you go, the harder you can hit the ground if you’re not managing risk. Archie Karas’s rise and fall show that without self-imposed limits, even enormous winnings can evaporate.
- Third, humility and discipline are so important; if legends like Negreanu can admit that overconfidence did them in, the rest of us aren’t immune.
Lastly? Don’t ever forget that the house (or the sportsbook) doesn’t mind if you win for a while, but they want the players who will give it all back. Recognize when luck was on your side in your wins and adjust accordingly. The goal is to keep your winnings, not immortalize yourself as the next big losing streak after a winning one.
How to Handle Winning Streaks Like a Pro
What separates the pros (or sharp gamblers) from the rest when it comes to handling hot streaks? One word: discipline. Smart bettors like winning streaks just like everyone else, but they don’t let the streak dictate their decisions. How can you handle a winning streak like a pro? By practicing the following tenets!
Stick to a Pre-Defined Bankroll Plan
Before you even start betting, you (hopefully) have a bankroll management plan – a set of rules for how much you bet per wager, per day, etc. Don’t throw that plan out the window just because you’re up. If your rule was to bet no more than, say, 2% of your bankroll on any single play, keep it at 2%, even when you feel unstoppable. Pros treat their bankroll like a precious tool, not play money. By sticking to your limits, you ensure that a few losses won’t wipe out all your gains. Remember, success is built on process, not results. If your process says “only bet X amount per game,” do that whether you’re winning or losing. This kind of discipline is exactly how professionals grind out long-term profits while others boom and bust.
Set Profit Milestones (and Walk Away If Needed)
It’s important to decide in advance when you’ll step away from a session. For example, you might set a rule to quit for the day if you’re up 50% of your bankroll, or to cash out after a certain big win. Hitting a profit milestone is a great feeling – a pro knows to actually lock in that win by walking away for a bit. Yes, it can be hard to stop when you’re having fun and winning. But consider this: if you tell yourself, “If I reach $X, I’m done for today,” you avoid the classic blunder of turning a big win into a big loss by chasing more. As one gambling guide wisely puts it, “You should take a break after a big win. Many players let greed take over and think, ‘If I won this much, I can just as easily win twice as much.’” Don’t fall for that trap! Set a cash-out point and actually cash out. Your future self will thank you.
Keep Emotions in Check, Win or Lose
Pros have an almost stoic approach to both wins and losses. No matter how ecstatic you feel after a win (or how upset after a loss), try to maintain an even keel. This might mean taking a breather in the middle of a hot streak to clear your head. The idea is to avoid going on “tilt” from positive emotions just as you would from negative ones. One strategy is to implement a “winning streak reset” ritual: after a big win or a great session, pause for a few minutes. Take a walk, grab a coffee, do something non-gambling to let the adrenaline settle. This helps cool the dopamine rush so you can objectively reflect on what happened. The best bettors treat impostors of triumph and disaster the same; they celebrate in a chill way and analyze the situation instead of getting swept away by the feels. Keeping your emotions in check means you won’t make that one crazy bet out of overexcitement, and you won’t throw a tantrum (and your bankroll) when variance rears its head.
Re-Evaluate Each Bet on Its Own Merits
During a streak, you might start to think, “whatever I pick will win.” Professionals know way better. They treat each bet as a separate, independent decision that needs to stand on its own logic. A good trick is to ask yourself: “Would I make this same bet if I hadn’t won my last few?” If the answer is no, it’s a red flag that you’re betting because you’re ahead, and not because it’s a good bet.
In poker, coaches suggest reviewing at least one decision from a winning session and honestly asking if it was good play or good luck. Sports bettors can do the same: Was your big win on Team A because of a sound analysis, or did you get lucky with a last-second Hail Mary play? Continually re-evaluating prevents you from being on autopilot. Don’t let the streak make your decisions for you; keep doing your homework on every bet you make. Play the next hand or place the next bet with the same thoughtfulness as you would after a loss. This keeps you grounded in reality (odds and analysis) and not in some sort of a fantasy land that you’ve all of a sudden become a seer.
Keep a Betting Journal (Track Decisions, Not Just Results)
A hallmark of a sharp bettor is meticulous record-keeping. When you’re winning, it’s the perfect time to start or update a betting journal. Why? Because you want to capture why you’re winning, not just the fact that you did. Write down the reasoning for each bet, your staking, your emotions at the time, etc.
This log will show whether your wins were due to solid strategy or if you might have been riding a bit of luck. Writing things down also forces a bit of self-reflection. Gambling psychologists recommend journaling during hot streaks as a way to anchor yourself in the process over outcomes.
See if you deviated from your plan and still won (that might be luck, so don’t bank on it next time), or if a certain strategy paid off consistently (maybe you did really find an edge). The act of journaling your decisions helps separate how you feel (“unstoppable!”) from how you think, reinforcing good habits and nipping overconfidence in the bud. Plus, when the inevitable downswing comes, your journal can be a great tool to remind you what good betting looks like and that variance goes both ways.
Tools and Strategies to Keep You Grounded
In addition to mindset and habits, there are some practical tools and strategies that can help prevent a hot streak from derailing you:
Use a Bankroll Tracker or Betting App
Leverage technology to keep yourself honest. Plenty of apps and online tools allow you to track your bets, wins/losses, and bankroll in real time. Seeing the raw numbers can be sobering (in a good way) when you’re euphoric from a streak. For example, some apps will show your profit as a percentage of bankroll; you might feel like a high roller after a big win, but if you see that you’ve only moved from, say, 100% to 110% of bankroll, it reminds you how quickly that can drop back to 100% on a bad day.
Most gambling sites let you set alerts or limits, and you should use them! If you set a daily profit cap in an app, it can ping you when you hit it, nudging you to bet smaller or call it a day. These tools are like the speedometer on a car: they help you gauge when you’re going too fast for safety.
Pre-Set Limits on Daily Profit or Number of Bets
Before you play, decide on limits, and not just for losses, but for wins and bets placed. You could say, “If I win $500 today, I stop,” or “No matter what, I won’t place more than 5 bets today.” They are the self-imposed brakes that keep you from overdoing it. It sounds a little counterintuitive to limit winning, but it’s necessary to avoid the point of diminishing returns where fatigue or hubris causes you to make dumb bets.
All responsible gambling guidelines suggest time-outs or win limits to stay in control, so treat your betting day like a mission that has an exit plan: once you hit the target, mission accomplished, and you dip.
Follow a Strategy (e.g., Flat Betting)
Adopting a disciplined betting strategy can act as a hedge against streak-induced recklessness. One popular approach is flat betting, where you wager the same fixed amount on every bet, regardless of wins or losses. For example, always betting 2% of your bankroll per play, no more, no less. Flat betting isn’t the most exciting thing; it won’t maximize a hot streak, but that’s the entire point. It keeps your bankroll growth steady and controlled, preventing huge swings. This way, if you get carried away emotionally, your bet sizes don’t balloon.
Other strategies include proportional betting (betting a fixed percentage of your current bankroll each time) or using systems that enforce when to step up or down in stakes. The idea is to have a structured approach that you stick to, so you’re not making wild bets on the fly. A set strategy acts like guard rails to keep your betting car from veering off the road when the scenery (your wins) tempts you to take your hands off the wheel.
Have an Accountability Partner or Community
It sounds weird, but having someone to report your betting activity to can curb your worst impulses. This could be a fellow bettor friend, an online forum, or a mentor if you have one. When you’re on a hot streak, tell your accountability partner about your results and your plan. “I’m up $1,000 this week; I’m sticking to $50 bets and not going above a $1,100 bankroll.” Just saying it out loud (or posting it) makes it more likely you’ll follow through.
And if you start to slip? Like chasing an extra win? Your buddy can remind you to stay with your plan (or simply knowing that you’d have to admit to them you broke your rule might be enough to keep you in line). There’s also a psychological benefit: discussing your wins and losses with others can normalize them. It’s a reality check that helps you remember everyone has ups and downs, and you’re not some infallible genius just because you’re up this month.
Take a Break After Big Wins
This one is simple but super effective: when you hit a substantial win, take a break. It could be ten minutes, an hour, a day, or a week off gambling; whatever “reset” you need. Why? To let the adrenaline bleed off. As that roulette guide noted, greed can kick in right after a big win and trick you into thinking you’ll just keep winning.
Taking a break interrupts that thought. Do something totally unrelated to betting, like go for a walk, catch up on a TV show, anything. A break serves two purposes: it prevents immediate reinvestment of winnings in a potentially foolish bet, and it gives you time to plan your next move with a clear head. A big win can be as destabilizing as a big loss for your decision-making, so treat them both as signals to pause and regroup. Casinos and betting apps will still be there when you come back. Lock in that win by enjoying it in real life for a bit before risking even one dime more.
The Long Game: Why Discipline Beats Momentum
Let’s zoom out and look at the bigger picture. In gambling (as in investing, sports, and life), long-term success is a lot less about riding lucky streaks and much more about managing the inevitable ups and downs. The following is why a disciplined approach will beat pure momentum every single time!
Streaks Are Temporary, Variance Is Forever
No matter how hot your streak is, it will end, and we aren’t being pessimistic. It’s math. Every game, spin, or bet has an element of randomness, and variance doesn’t care that you’ve been winning.
The best gamblers treat all winning streaks as a phase, not a permanent state. They know that success in betting comes from managing variance, not somehow escaping it. That means during good runs, they bank profit and brace for the inevitable regression to the mean. It’s helpful to think of it this way: if you expect a winning streak to go on forever, it’s like expecting sunny weather every day; a nice thought, but sooner or later it is going to rain, and your job is to carry an umbrella (a plan) for when it does!
By acknowledging that streaks are fleeting, you won’t be so shocked when a cold streak hits, and you’ll have the discipline (and funds) to ride it out. Long-term winners focus on consistency and risk management, not on chasing the high of an endless summer of wins.
Expected Value (EV) Over ‘Hot Hands’
The pro bettors make decisions based on expected value, aka the statistical edge (or lack thereof) in each bet, and not on hunches from recent performance.
- A casual gambler could think, “Hmmm, I’ve won 5 in a row, so my sixth pick is golden.”
- But a pro thinks, “Am I getting good odds on this sixth bet relative to its true probability?” They trust in the math, not in the momentum.
The best bettors avoid the hot-hand fallacy and evaluate if each new bet is +EV (positive expected value). By thinking in terms of probability and value, not streaks, they guarantee that over time, they come out ahead. Momentum can make you feel like a genius today, but expected value is what will determine if you’re profitable over the long run.
Consistency and Analysis Trump Emotion
Discipline is the real secret to lasting success in gambling. A disciplined bettor with a mediocre system? They’ll likely outperform an undisciplined bettor with a brilliant system. Why? Because the former will execute their strategy faithfully, and the latter self-sabotages when emotions get the best of them.
The pros keep detailed records, continuously learn from wins and losses, and use proven methods even when they could deviate. Consistency is everything; it evens out the ups and downs that derail others. Emotional betting, whether that’s chasing losses or riding high on wins, is the downfall of lots of gamblers.
Concentrating on analysis (facts, numbers, logic) over emotion (gut feelings, excitement, fear) makes the best bettors make rational choices that add up over time. They treat betting less like gambling and more like making 1000 small investments. Some will yield short-term losses, and others will have short-term wins, but what matters? The overall growth of their bankroll across all of those decisions!
Conclusion: Handling the Heat: How to Stay Cool on a Hot Streak
Winning streaks are a blast, and every bettor, casual or pro, lives for those hot runs. But as we’ve found out, they can be treacherous if you let the thrill get the better of your discipline.
Here’s a quick recap for how to handle the heat:
- Winning streaks feel really good, but they’re really risky without any discipline. Yes, enjoy the ride, but don’t let temporary euphoria make your decisions for you. Stick to the fundamentals that keep your feet on the ground.
- Don’t deviate from your plan and don’t fall into the trap of overconfidence. Keep following your bankroll management and strategy, no matter how “hot” you feel. Overconfidence can turn a big win into an epic loss in the blink of an eye.
- Use tools and mindset shifts to turn streaks into long-term success! Leverage things like betting trackers, set win/loss limits, flat betting, and self-checks to keep yourself in check. When you remain humble and focused on the long game, you can bank those wins and build on them instead of losing them and donating them right back to the sportsbook, online casino, or physical casino!
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Prediction & Betting Preview (August 20, 2025)
It’s the Sparks’ turn to host the Wings, and it goes down on Tuesday night at 10 pm ET (7 pm PT) in Cali at the Crypto.com Arena.
Los Angeles is coming in only one game back of the final playoff spot, so this is a really important matchup, no matter who they’re playing, but it just so happens to be Dallas, and they are in last place in the Western Conference of the WNBA.
Despite the Wings’ standing, we can’t write them off completely! They have Paige Bueckers, who’s having a stellar rookie year and nearly hit the game-winner, but the Sparks managed to pull out the win 97–96. They can still give playoff teams a run for their money and knock back LA’s playoff progress.
Looking at this one from a betting perspective, the Wings have covered in recent spots, and totals between these two have leaned on the high side. Los Angeles is on a 10–2 run, but can they keep it up?
Let’s get into it with team form, storylines, trends, betting odds, player matchups, and what we feel are the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Dallas Wings (9–26) at the Los Angeles Sparks (16–18)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, August 20 at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA
- How to Watch: ESPN+ and WNBA League Pass
- Series Status: The Sparks are up in the season series 2–0
- Previous Meeting: The Sparks beat the Wings 97-96 on Aug. 15; Kelsey Plum racked up 28 points and Dearica Hamby sank 20 points (10 rebounds); Paige Bueckers had 22 points and 7 assists for the Wings and almost hit the game-winner at the final buzzer.
Recent Form & Storylines
We covered a little of both teams’ form, but let’s look closer at what else has been happening.

Los Angeles Sparks
- LA is 10–2 in their last 12, and that’s one of the best runs in the WNBA.
- Kelsey Plum (19.4 PPG) and Dearica Hamby (16.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG) are carrying the offense.
- At home, they’ve been much better defensively and have been holding opponents to 77.5 points on average across their last four games.
- They’re still sitting right outside the playoff picture, so they need every win they can get.

Dallas Wings
- The losses keep coming, but they aren’t getting whooped; several of them have been by less than five points.
- Rookie Paige Bueckers is averaging 20.2 PPG and is now the fastest first-year player to hit 500 points and 100 assists.
- The Wings are without Arike Ogunbowale, Teaira McCowan, and Maddy Siegrist, and that limits their scoring options and size.
- Defense is still an issue, as they rank 11th in the league.
Notable Trends
- Dallas has covered in 5 of their last 7.
- Los Angeles has won 6 of their last 7 at home.
- The Over has hit in 6 of Dallas’ last 8 games.
Betting Odds
Thinking about putting down a bet or two on the game? Before you do, make sure you check out the current odds and lines! Here’s what FanDuel has:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Wings | +8 (-110) | +245 | Over 183 (-110) |
Sparks | -8 (-110) | -320 | Under 183 (-110) |
- Paige Bueckers Prop: 20+ points, 4+ rebounds, 4+ assists (+210)
Line Movement Note
The spread opened at Sparks –6.5 but moved to –7.5 after early sharp money came in and is now -8!
Advanced Betting Angles & Market Read
- Sparks ATS at Home: 8–4 against the spread in their last 12 home games.
- Wings ATS on the Road: 4–3 across their last 7, and they’ve managed to cover even in losses.
- Game Totals: All of the Sparks’ last five games have cleared 180 total points.
- Revenge Factor: Dallas dropped the last game by a single point, and that could make them work harder for the win.
Value Bets to Watch
- The Over 180.5 looks playable. Why? Because both teams rank in the top five in pace.
- If fatigue affects the Sparks, the Wings have a chance at a late cover.
- Paige Bueckers’ scoring prop (Over 19.5) has cashed in 7 of her last 9 games.
Matchups That Will Shape the Game
Who could be the ones who win it for their squads? And what matchups are we looking at? Here’s who and what we think will make or break the game:
This guard matchup? It’s the main attraction. Plum attacks off the dribble and puts a lot of pressure on defenses with her scoring instincts, and Bueckers operates in a more methodical way: she reads the floor and sets up plays and still gets her own shot. In their last meeting, Plum finished with 28 points, and Bueckers put up 22 points and 7 assists.
Dearica Hamby has been racking up points left and right and rebounding; Dallas doesn’t have the size to counter inside. Without Teaira McCowa? The Wings are exposed on the boards and give up way too many second chances.
Los Angeles has a deeper second unit, and they are all capable of sustaining scoring runs when the starters sit. Dallas is already short-handed because of injuries and has had to shorten its rotations. That’ll leave them stretched thin in the fourth quarter.
Our Best Bets
What makes the most sense if you’re wagering on this game? We’ve narrowed it down to four solid angles for your best bets!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Wings +8 | ★★★☆☆ | Dallas has been competitive, and a lot of their losses have been decided by a few possessions. |
Over 183 | ★★★★☆ | Both teams push the pace, and recent matchups have cleared this number. |
Player Prop | Bueckers Over 19.5 Points | ★★★★★ | She’s topped this line in 7 of her last 9 games and remains the Wings’ go-to scorer. |
Alt Line Parlay | Sparks ML + Over 183 | ★★☆☆☆ | Lower total paired with Sparks to win is a safer angle than the spread. |
What Did We Learn & How Should You Play It?
Final Score Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks 93, Dallas Wings 87
We’re siding with the Sparks here. Why? LA is the better all-around team right now, and their home floor gives them an extra advantage.
But we have to give props to Dallas! Even when they are short-handed, they haven’t rolled over and played dead; they’ve stayed inside spreads more than their record suggests.
As for betting, the safest angle here is undeniably Paige Bueckers; her points prop has been hitting at a reliable rate, and she’ll get lots of chances again in this matchup. And with both sides running possessions quickly, the total looks like it can get up there and go past 180!
Best Bet Recap
- Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 Points: ★★★★★
- Over 183 Total Points: ★★★★☆
- Spread – Wings +8: ★★★☆☆
- Sparks ML + Over 183 (Alt Line Parlay): ★★☆☆☆
Before locking in your bets for the Wings vs. Sparks matchup, make sure to review the most up-to-date odds and betting lines—things can shift fast as game time approaches. To ensure you’re getting the best value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites and wager with confidence on trusted platforms.
New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction & Top Bets (August 19, 2025)
While both teams have almost the same last five-game results, the New York Yankees have been the dominant team in their last 3 H2H clashes. That does ignite our curiosity for this game, and with the playoff positioning picking up steam, we do expect some fireworks in this late-season AL East clash.
One major question on our minds and likely on yours, too, is whether Carlos Rodón can dominate the Rays again. Or will the Rays flip the script with their right-hand bat?
Shane Baz is one of the notable Rays pitchers to look out for in this game. And we’ll see just how much brilliance he will bring into the game. Or, perhaps, the Yankees’ aggressive top-order will overshadow that brilliance. These and many more are what we’ll examine as we give our thoughts on the best bets to make and what the final scoreline will likely be.
Game Context and What’s at Stake
- Matchup: New York Yankees (67-57) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (61-64)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 19, 2025, at 7:10 PM ET
- Location: Tropicana Field – St. Petersburg, FL (dome stadium, no weather factor)
- Standings Implication: Yankees: Currently 67–57, 3rd in AL East, 2.5 GB from 1st | Rays: 61–64, on the outside of the AL Wild Card picture looking in
- Momentum Check: The Yankees are on a 3-game winning streak against the St. Louis Cardinals. | The Rays did lose to the Giants in their last match, but secured wins in the last three matches before they clash with the Giants. There are visible struggles when it comes to scoring consistently.
- Why the Game Matters: This series has Wild Card implications, especially for the Yankees. If they secure a win against the Rays, they’ll be within striking distance of the division or WC #2.
Live Betting Odds
How do the numbers stack up in this matchup? Here are the latest odds and lines from ESPN BET:
| Bet Type | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline | -130 | +110 |
Run Line | -1.5 (+130) | +1.5 (-155) |
Total | Over 8.5 (+105) | Under 8.5 (-125) |
Starting Pitching Matchup Breakdown

Carlos Rodón – LHP (Yankees)
- Record: 12–7 | ERA: 3.25 | WHIP: 1.10 | Strikeouts: 164
- Last 3 outings: 20 IP, 2 ER, 25 Ks – dominant form.
- Strength: Command vs. righties, dominant vs. non-power lineups.
- Tampa splits: Rays hitting just .211 vs. LHP in last 30 days.

Shane Baz – RHP (Rays)
- Record: 8–9 | ERA: 4.93 | WHIP: 1.34 | Strikeouts: 140
- Last 3 starts: 14 IP, 9 ER, 4 HR allowed – showing cracks.
- Concerts: Struggles with control and hard contact when behind in counts.
- Yankees slug .482 against RHP since the All-Star break.
Matchup Edge: We will lean more towards Rodón, as he has shown better consistency so far. He also has a higher strikeout upside and is in better form compared to Shane Baz.
Head-to-Head Season Series Trends
- 2025 Season Series: The Yankees have won seven out of the last 10 H2H clashes, leading the Rays 7-4 in their last clash.
- The Yankees have won three of the previous five clashes against Tampa. Even better, they have averaged 6.4 runs in those wins.
- The total has gone over in 4 out of the last 5 H2H matchups.
- Tropicana Field: Yankees 9-3 last 12 visits
Trend Insights: The New York Yankees have consistently out-hit and out-pitched the Tampa Bay Rays. And they’ve often done so late in games, which leaves us with the expectation of something similar in this clash.
Offensive Matchups and Key Players to Watch

New York Yankees Offense
The Yankees have an impressive ranking compared to the Rays. As of this writing, they have the following rankings:
- 5th in OBP (/335)
- 7th in HRs (170)
- 4th in runs scored in August
When you look at the key hitters as well, the Yankees have the upper hand going into the game. The key hitters for this game and their stats are as follows:
- Paul Goldschmidt: .342 AVG over the last 15 games
- Anthony Volpe: 3 HRs in his last 5 games
- Cody Bellinger: Known to clutch late-inning power

Tampa Bay Rays Offense
The team does have some catching up to do when it comes to rankings. As of this writing, their current ranking are as follows:
- 18th in runs per game
- 22nd in OPS (.702)
- Heavy platoon splits: The pattern indicates that the team struggles against LHPs like Rodón.
As for the key hitters, the Rays have the following:
- Yandy Díaz: He has .299 on the season. However, he has also shown visible struggles against LHPs, a weakness Carlos will likely exploit.
- Junior Caminero: Junior will likely be a power threat to the Yankees. But his high K-rate against sliders is concerning.
Strategic Insight: So far, the Yankees are more consistent. They are also better at driving runners in. The Rays, on the other hand, will likely rely more on solo shots and small ball to win the game.
Our Best Bets and Confidence Ratings
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Yankees ML | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4/5) | The Yankees have superior starting pitching, and they play with better bats. |
Over 8.5 Runs | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Recent performances indicate that both teams tend to trend over, particularly the New York Yankees. We can also say that about the Tampa Bay Rays, who trend over mostly late in games. |
Strikeout Prop | Rodón Over 5.5 Ks | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | The Rays have a record of striking out 10.3 per game in August. As such, we expect Rodón to capitalize on that, especially with the Rays showing weakness against LHPs. |
Rays Total Runs | Under 8.5 Team Total | ⭐⭐⭐ (3/5) | Rodón’s pitch sequencing will likely eat up the bottom of Tampa’s order in the game. |
- Same Game Parlay Idea: Yankees ML + Rodón 5+ Ks + Over 7.5 | ⭐⭐½ (2.5/5)
Quick heads-up—odds can change fast as we get closer to first pitch, so it’s always smart to check the latest lines before you bet. And don’t forget to use one of the top sports betting sites to make sure you’re getting the best bang for your buck.
Rays in Trouble: Our Final Betting Verdict
Final Score Prediction: New York Yankees 6, Tampa Bay Rays 3
The Yankees undoubtedly have the superior form in this game, with an impressive 7-4 record in the season series against the Rays. You also get Rodón, who has dominated much of August and matches up well against the Rays’ LHP weakness.
On the other hand, the Rays have shown inconsistency in their last games. And, although Baz has his brilliant moments, he might not contribute much due to his current struggles. These struggles will most likely put the Rays at a disadvantage.
Finally, we expect the public money to lean more towards the Yankees. But you will also likely get solid value with parlay and prop angles.
5 Poker Myths That Still Cost Players Money
Poker has a funny way of sending otherwise rational people into superstition overdrive. They get a bad beat? That game was rigged. Other players might label you as “scared” if you fold. And if you win without bluffing to the high heaves? Eh, it’s just dumb luck.
Those three things we just said? They are myths. Total nonsense. And there’s a lot more of them floating around in the land of poker. Who started them? We don’t know, but they appear to be passed down from generations before, like family recipes that nobody even bothered to fact-check.
And why have they stuck around for so long? Because if you hear something enough, chances are pretty good you’ll start to believe it. Even if you know it’s not true? You could unconsciously internalize them without realizing it!
We don’t want you to blow up your bankroll, because these errant wives’ tales can cost you money. That’s why we’re gonna bury the most common ones.
What are the 5 poker myths that still cost players money? Let’s get into it so you can evict them, because they have been living rent-free in your head!
Poker Myth #1: ‘Bluffing Is the Most Important Skill in Poker’
Is your poker game built on bluffing bravado? If so, you’re playing in a fantasy land, and you are going to lose money!

The Myth
A lot of new poker players (and, because of the movies, even people who have never played a game of poker) associate winning at poker with bluffing. They picture the protagonist pushing in a huge bluff and scooping the pot with a smug smirk. And this causes players to overvalue bluffing as the end-all, be-all primary skill in poker.
Bluffing is just a single tool in a good poker player’s toolkit, and it’s definitely not the one that’s used most often. Successful poker playing is built on a foundation of solid fundamentals: choosing good starting hands, calculating pot odds, understanding position, and reading your opponents’ tendencies.
Bluffing is a situational weapon; it can tip a close contest or exploit a specific opponent, but it’s not the basis of a winning strategy. If you bluff too frequently? You become predictable and lose credibility, and opponents will catch on and call you down more often, making your bluffs worthless and unprofitable. Most of your profits will come from value betting, strong hands, and making sound decisions, not bluffing every game.
Players who buy into the “bluffing is everything” myth tend to over-bluff. They’re firing at pots left and right, trying to win with weak hands way too often. What happens? They bleed chips when those bluffs get picked off, or they bluff in bad spots and run into easy calls.
Over-bluffing doesn’t just empty your stack; it also makes you super predictable, and that’s something smart opponents will exploit. Ironically, a player who bluffs at every opportunity ends up being easier to read. The truth is that well-timed bluffs have their time and place, but poker rewards balance and good judgment, not constant shenanigans. Focus on solid strategy first; use bluffs sparingly and smartly as a supplement to your skill, not as a regular crutch!
Poker Myth #2: ‘If You Fold, You’re Weak’
This one is a doozy. There is nothing wrong with admitting that you have a crap hand, and anyone who says otherwise is fooling themselves.
The Myth
There’s an ego-driven idea in poker that folding, even if you have a decent hand, is a sign of weakness or cowardice. This kind of weird, macho mentality suggests that “real” poker players never back down and always fight for pots. Wrong!
Folding is in no way a sign of weakness; it’s the opposite. Knowing that you don’t have the cards is a sign of strength and discipline, not weakness.
One of the world’s top poker pros, Daniel Negreanu, says those exact words: “Folding is a sign of strength, not weakness.” Good players know that saving money on a losing hand is just as important as making money on a winning hand. A well-timed fold? It protects your stack. If you suspect you’re beaten, like you have a top pair but you read that your opponent likely hit their flush or set, the strongest play you can make is to muck your cards.
As poker wisdom goes, money saved is money earned. Folding doesn’t feel good, but it does prevent costly mistakes. Every chip you don’t lose is a chip you can use in a better spot later!
A disciplined fold can save you a fortune in the long run. If you’ve put some chips in the pot with a marginal hand, and then face a big raise? Your ego might tell you to call (“I don’t want to be pushed around!”), but the correct move is to let it go.
If you’re beat, throwing more chips at the problem won’t fix it. Continuing in a losing situation is literally throwing good money after bad. If you know you’re likely to be beaten and keep calling, you’re just wasting chips, whereas a fold in that spot preserves your bankroll. The best players have the discipline to make big laydowns and cut their losses. They understand that folding a bad hand early is an important part of long-term winning poker. Far from being weak, it takes a lot of strength to swallow your pride and fold when your hand is second-best.
You’re playing a cash game, and you have a decent hand like top pair, top kicker on the flop. But your opponent makes a hefty raise on the turn, and your instincts (and perhaps some betting pattern tells) tell you that they’ve likely made a set (three of a kind).
Most average or casual players go broke in this exact spot by thinking, “I can’t fold now, my hand is too good,” or because they don’t want to appear weak. But a great player can lay that hand down because they see the danger signs, so they’d rather fold and lose one medium-sized pot than call and lose their whole stack.
In poker, you don’t get a medal for calling when you’re beat. If there are any heroics going on, it’s the players who have enough discipline to make tough folds and survive to fight another hand. Folding to avoid a trap is a power move; it keeps you in the game and your bankroll intact for other profitable opportunities.
Poker Myth #3: ‘Online Poker Is Rigged’
If we had a dollar for every time we’ve heard that online poker is rigged, we’d have a lot of dollars.
The Myth
If you’ve played online, chances are pretty good you’ve heard this one (we’d bet on it). Maybe you’ve even felt this way after a brutal bad beat at 1 am. The myth? It claims that online poker isn’t fair; the dealing algorithm is “rigged” to cause more bad beats or to favor certain players or outcomes.
People say that gambling sites do this to create “action” and higher rake, or they just plain don’t trust that a computer can deliver truly random cards. So, after a few rough losses in a row, you can start to wonder if the poker site has it in for you.
We really do get it! Losing three hands in a row to unlikely river cards feels like you’re smack dab in the middle of a conspiracy. Human psychology is wild: we remember the one-outer on the river that crushed our aces far more vividly than the many times that our aces held up.
This is what’s called confirmation bias, and it means we notice and remember events that confirm our belief (“the site is rigged!”) and ignore the normal outcomes. And online poker deals way more hands per hour than live poker, so naturally, you are gonna see more crazy suck-outs simply because you’re observing a larger sample of hands. It’s a variance thing, not a malicious platform. But our brains really do prefer a simpler explanation: someone must be pulling the strings.
Despite the anecdotes and salty forum posts, legit online poker sites and online casinos are not rigged. The reputable platforms are heavily regulated and audited to guarantee fair play. They use certified Random Number Generators (RNGs) to shuffle and deal cards, and that gives outcomes that are just as random as dealing cards from a real deck.
Major poker sites have everything to lose by cheating; their entire business (which is worth billions) relies on the players trusting them. Gambling sites have very little to gain and everything to lose by trying to “rig” deals for a tiny uptick in short-term action. The few scandals that did occur (like superuser cheats or rogue offshore sites) were isolated cases and, most importantly, they were exposed. The math of poker holds true online just as it does in live settings.
The “online is rigged” belief largely stems from misunderstanding variance and probability. Bad beats happen all the time, sometimes in improbable clusters, and it’s human nature to look for patterns or someone to blame.
But poker is a game of long-term skill with short-term luck swings, and people struggle with random negative streaks; instead of accepting that downswings are part of the game, they create narratives for why it “must be” rigged. Don’t fall for this trap. If you flip a coin 1,000 times, you’ll see periods where it lands on heads 8 or 9 times in a row, but that doesn’t mean the coin is fixed.
In online poker, you could lose with the best hand several times in one session. Painful, yes, but it’s not evidence of foul play. Over thousands of hands, probability balances out, and skillful decisions will show profit.
Believing that online poker is rigged can wreck your game. Players who think the system is against them usually respond in two harmful ways: (1) they go on tilt and chase losses (“the site owes me a win!” mentality), or (2) they quit playing (and stop improving) because they think the skill doesn’t matter.
The first response empties bankrolls, and the second throws away any potential winnings. If you assume you’re doomed by a rigged system, you could stop making rational decisions at the table; why fold or manage risk if you think the outcome is preordained, right? It becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy of failure. The reality is way more empowering: online poker is fair on legit sites, and if you concentrate on playing well, you will see results over time. Don’t let short-term variance and a few shocking bad beats fool you into adopting a false excuse. Trust the process, keep learning, and you’ll realize that skill prevails in the end (yes, even on the internet).
Poker Myth #4: ‘You Have to Play Every Hand to Win’
And here we are at number 4! We’ve reached the “you have to play every hand you’re dealt in order to win,” myth. This is wrong on so many levels!

The Myth
There are some players, especially when they’re bored or impatient, who believe that the more hands you play, the greater your chances of winning. They think folding is “missing an opportunity,” so they try to get involved in every single pot. The myth might come from casual home games or watching too many action players on TV, but it all boils down to the misconception that the quantity of hands equals profit. In extreme cases, these kinds of players fear that if they aren’t entering a pot, they’re not really trying to win.
In poker? Patience is money, and winning players do not play most of the hands they’re dealt, far from it. Pro players only play around 20-30% of their hands in a full-ring game.
They’re super selective and wait for strong starting cards or favorable situations. Playing every hand (or too many hands) is the best way to bleed chips, because you’ll usually be entering pots with marginal holdings and unfavorable odds. A tight strategy, meaning you fold the junk and mediocre hands most of the time, keeps you out of trouble.
Patience in poker means resisting the urge to play every hand and sitting tight to wait for better spots, as you don’t have to fight every battle to win the war.
The most consistently winning style in poker is called tight-aggressive (TAG). That means you play fewer hands, but when you do play, you play them aggressively.
By being selective pre-flop, you’re usually entering the pot with a stronger range of hands than your opponents. This makes your decisions easier and your results better over the long run. As an example, let’s say a bored player decides to play 9♣ 5♣, J♥ 8♦, Q♠ 4♠, and a bunch of other unsuited, unconnected hands just to “get in on the action.”
A disciplined TAG player at the same table is folding those and only playing something like A♥ Q♥, 7♠ 7♥, or K♣ J♣ in good position. Nine times out of 10, the tighter range is going to have the advantage when both see a flop. The patient player will be ahead more often and will save money by not speculating with garbage. And the “play every hand” player finds themselves in bad spots with weak holdings, and that’s a recipe for really costly mistakes.
The belief that you have to play every hand leads to playing way too many marginal hands, and that in turn leads to tough decisions and second-best holdings, and it’s a classic money leak. You may get away with a loose call or two, but over a session, those speculative and low-percentage hands will drag down your win rate.
Increasing the number of hands you play doesn’t magically increase winnings; it only increases the number of bad beats you suffer and tough spots you encounter. The more pots you contest with inferior cards, the more you’re at the mercy of luck. Sure, playing a lot of hands can be fun, but if your goal is to make money? Discipline always beats boredom. It’s so much better to be known as the patient player who only enters when the odds are in your favor, and not as the loose cannon who’s involved in every other pot.
You can’t win pots you fold, but you also can’t lose much when you fold, either. Choose quality over quantity. In poker, folding 50 hands in a row and then betting big on the 51st because it’s aces is a totally valid (and usually very profitable) strategy. As Kenny Rogers sang, “You’ve got to know when to fold ’em,” as it’s just as important as “know when to hold ’em.”
Poker Myth #5: ‘Poker Is All Luck’
Last but not least is good ol’ myth number 5! Despite hearing this over and over, poker is not all luck. It’s not a slot machine or a roulette wheel!
The Myth
Ask any non-poker player (or a frustrated losing player) what poker is, and they might tell you that it’s gambling, and that means it’s all luck. This myth is really common outside the poker world, and sometimes new players will become believers after a rough run of cards. The idea is that poker outcomes are entirely random, like flipping a coin or playing the lotto, so skill doesn’t matter at all.
Yes, luck does absolutely play a role in the short term, but poker is a game of skill in the long run. The key is understanding the difference between variance (short-term luck) and expectation (long-term skill edge). In a single hand or session, a novice can beat a pro if the cards fall their way. But given enough time (enough hands or tournaments), the skilled player will come out ahead. There’s a literal mountain of evidence for this: just look at how the same names appear at poker tournament final tables or high-stakes games over and over. That just wouldn’t happen in a game of pure luck.
Luck does influence short-term results, but the ultimate outcomes are predominantly determined by skill. Good players consistently make better decisions: they fold when they’re likely beat, extract more value when they’re ahead, manage their bankrolls, and so on. All of these advantages compound over time.
Here’s a useful thought experiment: if poker were 100% luck, no one could win more than anyone else. The fact that poker vets crush newbies over a meaningful sample of hands is your evidence that it’s not all luck.
If two players are playing 100 heads-up sessions, and one is a pro, the other an amateur? The amateur could very well win a few sessions due to lucky cards (it happens), but the pro will almost certainly win the majority of those sessions with superior play.
And here’s a concrete example: pocket aces (a great starting hand) will statistically beat a hand like 7-2 offsuit about 85%+ of the time. That’s not luck, it’s math and skill in choosing better starting cards. Over one hand, 7-2 could catch some miracle flop and win (luck). But over hundreds of trials? Aces will crush 7-2 more often than not, and that benefits the player who knows to favor aces.
So yes, luck can make a bad player a one-night winner, and a great player can lose on a given day. But the great player’s edge is like gravity; while it’s invisible hand by hand, it’s inexorable over time. Poker is a game where you make your own luck with skillful play. Every decision, from what hands to play, how much to bet, when to bluff, and when to call or fold, changes the odds slightly in favor of the more skilled player. The small edges are the reason a skilled player’s graph goes up year after year, while a less skilled player has a hard time breaking even.
Understanding the science behind luck and myths around skill vs chance helps separate fact from fantasy at the poker table.
If a player really thinks poker is pure luck, they have no incentive to improve, and that is a self-fulfilling downfall. They will make sloppy plays (“It doesn’t matter what I do, it’s all random!”) or fail to study the game, thus remaining a losing player. It can also cause them to blame luck for every loss instead of analyzing mistakes. Don’t fall into that mindset!
Recognize that while you can’t control the cards, you can control your decisions and reactions. By doing so, you harness skill to alter the long-term odds in your favor. Poker is about knowledge, practice, and mental discipline. When you embrace that, you’ll find that you have way more control over your results than any superstition or skeptic might think.
How These Myths Add Up to Real Money Loss
Individually, each of these myths can put a dent in your game, but together? They can total your play (we mean total like wreck, as in a car).
A player who overvalues bluffing will spew chips bluffing too much, the “never-fold” tough guy will donate chips by calling when he should fold, the rigged-game believer could either tilt off stacks or quit during downswings, the “play every hand” action junkie bleeds chips on bad hands, and the “pure luck” believer never bothers to learn or improve.
These are holes and strategic errors that directly translate to money left on the table! Poker myths are usually rooted in emotional decision-making or outdated ideas instead of facts. Ego or machismo could be a driver of the myth that folding is weak, and impatience feeds the urge to play too many hands. Unfortunately, the poker table is a really expensive place to let pride or impatience run the show. Holding on to these false beliefs creates patterns of play that opponents (and the house, through rake) profit from.
It’s not a coincidence that most long-term losing players have one or more of these misconceptions guiding their play. If you believe the wrong things about the game? You’ll make the wrong moves in the game.
So, what’s the real money impact? Let’s connect the dots. Say that you refuse to fold strong-but-second-best hands due to pride. As time goes by, those calls could cost you dozens of big blinds that you could have saved by folding (that’s maybe hundreds of dollars in a serious game).
Or if you insist on seeing every flop, you’ll be paying a lot of blinds and bets with junk hands, and that’s basically just handing your money to others. If you believe online poker is rigged and start chasing your losses aggressively, you could blow an entire bankroll in a night of tilt that should have lasted months.
The player who knows better? They aren’t falling into any of these traps and steadily growing their roll. One by one, all of the five myths chip away at your bankroll. Combined? They can be the difference between a winning and a losing year.
The encouraging news is that once you bust these myths and replace them with correct thinking, you stop the leaks. Poker is hard enough without self-sabotage. When you shed these misconceptions, you can improve your game and keep more of your winnings. Most myths come from a place of misunderstanding, so remedy your understanding, and you’ll start making decisions that are way better for your bottom line!
Conclusion: Stop Letting Myths Run Your Chips
Most poker myths don’t sound ridiculous, and that makes them really annoying to bust!. They can creep into your game looking like common sense and drain your edge one decision at a time.
If you’re bluffing too much, folding too little, or blaming the software every time that you lose a hand, you’re not really playing poker; you’re just dodging accountability and trying to make yourself feel better.
Want to feel better? Get better at the game! And you can start by ridding your mind of these 5 poker myths. Think for yourself, because it’s the difference between playing poker and being played by it.
Refreshing your core fundamentals with a reference to poker basics and a guide to correct misconceptions can sharpen your game and help shed false beliefs.
Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Aces Preview & Prediction (August 19, 2025)
Two WNBA teams that are playing some of the best bball of the season will face off on Tuesday night.
The Aces are hosting the Dream in Las Vegas, and there’s playoff seeding in jeopardy. Vegas has A’ja Wilson and Atlanta has Allisha Gray, and these two are the GOATS of the league if you ask us!
The squads are dead even record-wise at 21-14, but does one have an advantage over the other?
We are gonna find out! Keep reading for a close look at team form, storylines, the current betting odds, H2H, trends, injuries, rosters, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Atlanta Dream (22–12) vs. Las Vegas Aces (21–14)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 19 at 10:00 pm ET
- Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas
- How to Watch: You can catch this one on WNBA League Pass and ESPN+
- Playoff Implications: The Aces are fighting to lock down a better playoff seed and maybe host opening-round games. The Dream is trying to stay near the top 5 in the Eastern race
Recent Form & Storylines
They’re in the middle of the playoff race, and both are coming off good playing stretches. The Aces are counting on their star power on home court, and Atlanta has been kicking butt on the road.

Las Vegas Aces
- They’ve won 4 of their last 5, and A’ja Wilson is putting up MVP-level numbers pretty much every game.
- The Aces have been solid at Michelob Ultra Arena; they’ve won over 70% of their home games this season.
- Chelsea Gray and Kelsey Plum are back on the roster; the Aces are moving the ball better and finding balance in their half-court sets.

Atlanta Dream
- The Dream are on a 3-game road streak that includes an OT win in Connecticut, which is one of the hardest arenas for visitors to win games in.
- Allisha Gray has been deadly from the perimeter, and Rhyne Howard’s ability to create her own shot gives Atlanta a really dependable scoring option late in games.
- Coach Karl Smesko has tightened up rotations, so there’s a physical defensive style that has kept the Dream’s opponents under control during this winning run.
Storylines to Watch
- A’ja Wilson’s Streak: She’s coming off a 30-point, 20-rebound stat line. The big question is if anyone, and that includes Atlanta’s smaller frontcourt, has any way to keep her off the glass.
- Pace Control: Atlanta has been able to slow games down when they have to, but if they’re forced into a faster pace? Las Vegas has perimeter scoring to capitalize on it.
- Fatigue Factor: This is the last stop of what’s been a demanding trip for the Dream, and their energy in the fourth quarter could determine if they can keep up with Vegas at home.
Up-to-Date Betting Odds
Thinking about placing a bet? Check the latest odds and lines by DraftKings below.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Dream | +2 (-112) | +110 | Over 165 (-108) |
Aces | -2 (-108) | -130 | Under 165 (-112) |
Line Movement Insight
- Early action has leaned toward Las Vegas, and it’s most likely because of their recent wins against Atlanta.
- The total could creep up if bettors expect a faster-paced game, so watch out for any late shifts on the Over/Under.
Head-to-Head & Matchup Trends
Okay, let’s take a look at the H2Hs between the Aces and the Dream and some matchup trends!
- In the last five matchups between them, the Aces have a 4–1 edge with an average margin of victory of 9.2 points.
- Las Vegas beat Atlanta by 15 earlier this season on the Dream’s home court.
- Atlanta has only gotten one win in Las Vegas since 2018.
- The Over has cashed in four of the last six games.
Trend Takeaways
- The Aces have had Atlanta’s number in this matchup; they’ve won most of the recent meetings at home.
- In three out of the last four meetings, the Aces have gotten ahead early enough to cover the first-quarter line.
- Vegas’ front line usually creates mismatches, and Atlanta’s smaller rotation has had a really hard time countering.
Injury & Roster Notes
Both teams are pretty close to full strength, but there is one roster question that could change the balance inside!
The Aces
- A’ja Wilson: She’s in absolutely peak form and carries the frontcourt.
- Chelsea Gray: She’s back in action and giving Las Vegas extra playmaking and floor direction.
The Dream
- Rhyne Howard: She’s playing at 110% and is averaging over 18 points across her last four games.
- Nia Coffey: She’s still listed as day-to-day, and her status will definitely affect Atlanta’s interior depth.
X-Factors
If Coffey is unavailable to play, Las Vegas should control the glass and generate more second-chance looks.
Our Best Bets
For this one? We’ve got three picks for your best bets and a super promising prop angle!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Aces –2 | High | Vegas has controlled this matchup, and being on the home floor is a late-season advantage. |
Under 165 | Medium | Both defenses tighten up in playoff-style games. |
1st Half Spread | Aces –0.5 | High | Las Vegas usually starts out fast, and Atlanta has struggled during the second quarter. |
Player Prop | A’ja Wilson Over Pts + Rebs | Very High | She’s unstoppable, and Atlanta just doesn’t have the size to contain her. |
Narrative & Betting Angles
- Tempo Battle: Las Vegas will be trying to speed the game up, and Atlanta wants to slow things down. The opening minutes will show us which side gets its way.
- Motivation Factor: Because there is seeding on the line, the Aces will come at this like a must-win, so they don’t drop in the standings.
- Vegas at Home: Their offense usually ramps up when they’re in front of the home crowd; they have better spacing and shot-making.
- Clutch Free Throws: If the game tightens up late, fouls could change the total, but Las Vegas is solid from the stripe at 83% as a team.
The Aces Dash the Dream
We are going with the Aces on this one! Why? Because Las Vegas has all of its star players, and its recent form has been trending upward at home.
No disrespect to Atlanta, as they are dangerous, but the wear and tear of the road trip and a not-so-great track record in Vegas is working against them.
The best value is with the Aces at –3.5 and A’ja Wilson prop markets. It’ll definitely be a competitive game, but we think it will stay under the total.
Best Bets Recap
- Aces –2 (Spread): High
- Under 165 (Total Points): Medium
- Aces –0.5 (1st Half Spread): High
- A’ja Wilson Over Pts + Rebs (Prop): Very High
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 83, Atlanta Dream 76
While you’re here, you should definitely check out our picks for the best sportsbook sites so you can always grab the best lines and promos!
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers Doubleheader Prediction (August 18, 2025)
Can the Cubs climb back into the wild card picture? Or will the Brewers’ resolve to solidify their division lead dominate the games? A win for the Brewers at Wrigley Field will give them just that as they come off a 14-game winning streak and one loss.
The game will be a doubleheader format. The fans will get to experience two rivalry games in one day, bringing a lot of energy to Wrigley Field. Bullpen management and lineup depth will also be key factors for both teams.
The game is undoubtedly a crucial NL Central showdown, with the playoff positioning at stake as well. We’ll give our thoughts on the game, review each team’s strengths, and recommend our best bets and predictions.
Game Details
- Matchup: Chicago Cubs (80-53) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (78-45)
- Date & Time: Monday, August 18, at 2:20 PM ET
- Location: Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois
- Where to Watch: FDSNWI, MARQ, MLBN
Starting Pitching Matchup Breakdown

Freddy Peralta (Chicago Cubs)
Freddy Peralta is the most likely starting pitcher for the Cubs. His current stats are 14-5, 2.90 ERA, 148 SO.
The Cubs have a good pitching record at home, and they also tend to limit HRs when the wind blows into Wrigley. But there are a few things that are of concern to us in this game.
One of the most notable concerns is that the Cubs have previously struggled with left-handed power bats. And the Milwaukee Brewers have a considerable number of those, one of which is Christian Yelich. He will lead the offense for the Brewers with his .267/.345/.467 line.

Cade Horton (Milwaukee Brewers)
Cade Horton will likely be the starting pitcher for the Brewers when they face the Cubs. His current stats are 7-3, 3.07 ERA, 67 SO.
Christian Yelich will likely lead the offense for the Brewers, and we expect some notable performances from him, especially with the Brewers having a strong strikeout upside in the game. But the team will have to watch out for the walk rate. The Cubs have a well-rounded offense that can drive up pitch counts.
Game 2 Notes
Both teams have a lot to gain in this game. As such, we should look out for spot traders in the nightcap. We should also expect heavy bullpen usage from both teams in the game. And the secondary arms will be crucial in creating high-scoring opportunities.
Offensive Trends and Team Form

Chicago Cubs (Recent record: 5 Wins, 10 Losses)
The Cubs haven’t exactly had an impressive run in their previous ten matches. They’ve lost half of that, most notably to the Pirates, the Blue Jays, and the Cardinals.
We’ve picked up an inconsistent offense from the Cubs in the previous matches. The team typically ended up with big innings or long scoreless stretches, a weakness the Brewers might exploit to win the game.
Bellinger will likely bring his powerful hits to the game to heat up. You can also look out for Busch, who has been reliable at Wrigley and is considered a productive hitter by manager Craig Counsell.

Milwaukee Brewers (Recent record: 9 Wins, 1 Loss)
The Brewers had a 14-game winning streak before losing to the Reds in the lead-up to their encounter against the Cubs. So, they have the upper hand when it comes to the recent record, but that might not tell the whole story.
Christian Yelich will lead the more balanced offense that includes Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, Andrew Vaughn, Isaac Collins, Joey Ortiz, Caleb Durbin, and Blake Perkins. William Contreras, who has been impressive in recent weeks, will join the Brewers’ offense against the Cubs.
The Brewers have an excellent baserunning pressure and will likely use that in the game. You can also expect runs even without the power, as the team is known to manufacture such.
Head-to-Head and Historical Edge
- For the 2025 season: Cubs 4 wins/4 losses, Brewers 4 wins/4 losses.
This game will be the first time both teams meet at Wrigley in 2025. However, the Cubs have played the Brewers tough, and the series typically results in splits.
While the Cubs are favorites, the Brewers lead the bullpen as its ERA in the last 30 days is stronger. On the other hand, the Cubs will have to deal with a shaky middle relief.
Ballpark and Environment Factors
The game might turn into a slugfest if the winds blow out. Whichever happens, we are certain that the wind direction will contribute significantly to the totals.
You can also expect defensive miscues from both teams in Game 2, due to the doubleheader fatigue. As for weather, the warm and humid conditions of mid-August will allow the bal lto carry well at night.
Live Betting Odds
What are the numbers telling us for this matchup? Here’s the latest odds and lines from FanDuel:
| Bet Type | Brewers | Cubs |
|---|---|---|
Moneyline (Game 1) | +108 | -126 |
Run Line (Game 1) | +1.5 (-192) | -1.5 (+158) |
Total (Game 1) | Over 8 (-112) | Under 8 (-108) |
Moneyline (Game 2) | +102 | -120 |
Run Line (Game 2) | +1.5 (-205) | -1.5 (+168) |
Total (Game 2) | Over 9 (-105) | Under 9 (-115) |
Top Player Props to Consider
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases – thrives at Wrigley vs RHP.
- Andrew Vaughn is to hit a Home Run.
- Strikeout props: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5, Cade Horton Under 3.5
Our Best Bets
#1 Game 1: Brewers Moneyline – Medium Confidence
- Rationale: The Brewers have better bullpen depth. They are also the most consistent in offense.
- Supporting Trends: Brewers 6-2 in last 8 vs Cubs
#2 Game 2: Over 9 Runs – Medium/High Confidence
- Rationale: The nightcap typically favors bats, while the doubleheaders often stretch the bullpens.
- Angles: The Cubs’ bullpen has a high ERA in back-to-backs. The Brewers, on the other hand, have an opportunistic lineup.
#3 Player Prop – Michael Busch Over 1.5 Total Bases – Medium Confidence
- Rationale: Wrigley has just the conditions to favor his pull-side power. And we expect an 8-9A across the doubleheader.
#4 Game 1: Brewers +1.5 – Low Confidence
- Rationale: The Brewers will likely win via multiple runs if they win behind their starter.
- Caution: The Cubs’ offense has proven to be capable of hanging around and keeping the games close.
Conclusion – Final Thoughts and Score Predictions
Why Brewers Have the Edge in the Twin Bill
- The team has a deeper pitching staff across two games.
- Even better, the lineup is balanced enough to produce both power and speed in the games.
Our Final Verdict: Brewers Slightly More Reliable
- Game 1: Brewers 5, Cubs 3
- Game 2: Cubs 7, Brewers 5
🔥 Closing Line: Expect Split Decisions, but Betting Value on the Over in Game 2
Stay sharp—odds can swing quickly with a high-stakes doubleheader like Cubs vs. Brewers, especially with bullpen fatigue in play. Make sure to check the latest lines before betting, and for the best value, explore our top-rated sports betting sites for reliable odds and fast payouts.
Top 5 Betting Scandals in Sports History (And What We Can Learn)
Scandalous behavior has always been a magnet for public curiosity, and it always will be. We love a good scandal, don’t we? As long as we aren’t part of it and get to watch from the outside, of course.
No one wants to be caught up in one! Unfortunately, the betting world has been rife with betting scandals. And they have left the onlookers and the participants shooketh.
We don’t say that in jest; millions of dollars have been lost, careers have been ruined, and the consequences have been harsh. But there’s a little silver lining to scandals seeing the light of day; in order to increase the trust of the public, the regulations surrounding betting have improved.
How? We’ll get into all of it as we explore the top 5 scandals in history and what we’ve learned from them! Let’s get scandalous, shall we!
1919 Black Sox Scandal: The Fix That Shocked Baseball
If you want the OG blueprint of a sports betting scandal, the 1919 World Series is it, hands down. It wasn’t just rigged, no, this was a full-on inside job, and it was pulled off by some of baseball’s biggest names. And the league? They never saw it coming.
At the time, the Chicago White Sox had the kind of roster that should’ve pummeled the Cincinnati Reds. But instead of winning, the Sox played like a minor league team. There were unforced errors, awful throws, and swings that did NOT resemble the Black Sox. Fans were not only disappointed, but they were also really confused. The Reds weren’t supposed to win, and it was over in eight games. There was a huge disconnect between the way they played before the series and during.
The whole mess started with White Sox first baseman Chick Gandil. He was tired of being underpaid by a Scrooge-ish owner and was also aware of how exposed the sport was, so he took matters into his own hands. He contacted gamblers and offered to tank the Series for the right price. And it wasn’t a solo endeavor. He pulled in seven of his teammates, including pitcher Eddie Cicotte and outfielder Happy Felsch. Their motivation was as old as time: they wanted money, and they didn’t trust the team to give it to them.
On the other side were the gamblers, and they were organized, connected, and happy to help, as they were gonna make a killing. Arnold Rothstein, a well-known figure in the New York underworld, was believed to have financed the entire operation. Although his name never appeared on paper, everyone knew he was involved.
The signs were there from the first pitch. Cicotte hit the leadoff batter in Game 1, a pre-arranged signal that the plan was a go. The Sox went on to lose that game, and the sabotage continued: missed cutoffs, bad jumps, lazy swings. Fans booed. Sports writers were confused. And still, the league sat on its hands.
It wasn’t until mid-1920 that things finally broke wide open. A grand jury was investigating broader gambling ties in baseball when the story started to come to light. The players confessed; some came forward on their own, and the rest did under pressure. Cicotte came clean. Shoeless Joe Jackson admitted he’d taken money but insisted he had played the Series straight. He hit .375 in the Series and didn’t make one single error. But in the end, it didn’t matter. Public opinion had already changed, and the league needed to give them scapegoats.
Baseball responded by appointing Judge Kenesaw Mountain Landis as commissioner and giving him unchecked power. His first move was to ban all eight Black Sox players for life. There would be no appeals and no exceptions. And that included Jackson, one of the game’s biggest players.
The White Sox lost their stars, fans lost trust in the MLB, and the league scrambled to try to rebuild its reputation. This was more than a scandal; it was a total failure of the system.
The Black Sox scandal forced baseball to get serious, and it was a loud warning shot to every other sport. The league realized too late that when you leave players underpaid, treat them like disposable parts, and ignore the influence of outside money, something’s gonna crack.
Now, the betting world is built to catch this kind of thing before it can come to fruition. Betting data is monitored, suspicious patterns are flagged, and players are constantly reminded that getting caught doesn’t mean you’ll get a slap on the wrist; you’ll be exiled.
Pete Rose: Betting on Baseball While Managing
Y’all remember Pete Rose, right? This man was the face of baseball. Rose was the all-time hits leader, a seventeen-time All-Star, and a three-time World Series champ. He played with a lot of heart, took pride in his hustle, and broke Ty Cobb’s all-time hits record.
But you probably don’t remember that about him, do you? You might only know him from his betting scandal.
Rose’s fall from grace didn’t happen while he was playing in the MLB; it came later when he was in the dugout managing the Cincinnati Reds. Pete was betting on games, and that includes the one he was managing.
What Happened
By the mid-1980s, Rose had transitioned from player to manager, and he was running the Reds from the bench, but he had a side hustle that would bury his legacy. In 1989, then-commissioner Peter Ueberroth received an anonymous tip: Rose was placing bets on baseball, including Reds games, during his time as manager. The league hired attorney John Dowd to investigate the accusations.
The Dowd Report, which was published in the summer of 1989, was brutal and had receipts. It included testimony from bookies, evidence of betting slips, and phone records that tied Rose to dozens of bets, and at least 52 involved the Reds; all placed during the 1987 season while Rose was managing the team.
He wasn’t betting against his team, but he was betting on them, which created its own set of problems. If he had money riding on a specific game, how could he manage a team without bias? What if he only used his best relievers when he had action down? And what about when he didn’t bet, did that send a signal too?
Rose denied it all, and he kept denying it for years. Even as public pressure mounted and the evidence kept piling up, he refused to admit he’d ever bet on baseball. Eventually, in August 1989, he accepted a permanent place on MLB’s ineligible list without formally admitting his guilt. It was a negotiated agreement; he wouldn’t challenge the league’s findings, and in return, MLB wouldn’t formally declare he’d bet on baseball. It was a ban, and a complete one.
The fallout for Rose was utterly devastating. His name was blacklisted overnight, and in 1991, the Hall of Fame added a rule that made anyone on MLB’s ineligible list automatically ineligible for induction, and that meant Rose would be denied any future vote. And Rose still stuck to his guns and lied.
He didn’t admit to betting on baseball until 2004, in his book My Prison Without Bars. But it was more of a half-confession, as he claimed he only ever bet on the Reds to win, never to lose. But by that point, the damage had been done. His public image had been cratered long ago, and the fans were split on the issue; some saw a player who was paying too high a price, and others saw a serial liar who’d squandered every chance he had to come clean.
MLB commissioners came and went, but none of them ever budged on Pete Rose. Bud Selig refused to lift the ban. Rob Manfred reviewed the case in 2015 and upheld it, citing Rose’s continued gambling and his never taking full accountability.
In 2025, a few months after Rose’s death, the MLB reversed course. Commissioner Rob Manfred announced there would be a policy change: deceased players on the ineligible list would no longer be barred from Hall of Fame consideration. It wasn’t a reinstatement, but it did clear the way for Cooperstown voters to revisit Rose’s case, alongside Shoeless Joe Jackson.
The Hall still requires a five-year waiting period after a posthumous eligibility change, which means Rose can’t be considered until at least 2030. But it is a possibility for the first time in decades.
Pete Rose’s scandal wasn’t a mere case of a manager breaking the rules, and it exposed a problem that’s bigger than any one man: what happens when someone who is in charge of decisions on the field has money riding on the outcome? Sure, Rose didn’t bet against his team, but that didn’t make it any more palatable. Every bullpen move and every lineup choice were questioned by people who wondered if he made it for the benefit of the team or for the bet.
And that’s the core issue here! It doesn’t matter how famous you are or how many records you hold; once the integrity of the game is in doubt, everything else is null and void. The betting world today is 10 times more visible, and odds are integrated into broadcasts and sportsbooks that are tied to the major leagues. That makes accountability non-negotiable. If the public’s going to be able to trust what they’re watching? Transparency isn’t an optional thing.
Tim Donaghy: The NBA Referee Scandal
The NBA has had its share of controversial calls, missed fouls, and questionable replays, but nothing that came close to the revelation that one of its own referees had been betting on games he officiated.
In 2007, the league’s worst nightmare became reality: Tim Donaghy, a veteran official with over a decade on the job, had been placing bets and supplying inside info to gamblers. And yes, he was doing it while he was still blowing the whistle on the court.
How It Went Down
Donaghy didn’t just put a casual wager on a few basketball game outcomes. Nope, he was working directly with known gamblers; his childhood friends Tommy Martino and Jimmy Battista, and they used Donaghy’s game insights to cash in. Donaghy had access to player injuries before they were made known to the public, knew which refs were working which games, and understood which players had friction with which officials. That kind of info? It’s priceless for bettors and makes his tips super profitable.
The FBI got wind of it during a broader investigation into organized crime and illegal gambling. Donaghy’s name popped up, and the case quickly went from an internal league matter to a federal case. By July 2007, the New York Post broke the story, and the NBA had to acknowledge the scandal. David Stern, who was the commissioner when it broke, held a press conference describing the situation as the most serious crisis he’d faced in his tenure.
The investigation revealed that Donaghy bet on games he personally officiated during the 2005–2007 seasons. According to betting records and call logs, his picks were hitting at an unusually high rate, and that meant he had more than a hunch. He pleaded guilty in August 2007 to wire fraud and transmitting betting info across state lines, and was sentenced to 15 months in federal prison.
The stain on the NBA’s image was immediate. Although Donaghy claimed he never made calls to deliberately fix outcomes, the fact that he was placing bets at all, and doing so from inside the system, undermined the public’s confidence in the fairness of games.
How did the league respond? By making the following changes:
- Referee assignments were moved to the day of the game, which limits the window for any potential leaks.
- Background checks and internal monitoring became way more strict.
- Betting line movement started being tracked more seriously, and not only by sportsbooks but by the league itself.
Gamblers and analysts who went back and looked at Donaghy’s games found some patterns. Games he officiated had point spread outcomes that deviated from expectation far more often than normal. It was obvious that something was influencing the final score, and in the eyes of the public, Donaghy had crossed a line that the league couldn’t ignore.
This particular scandal made one thing painfully obvious: referees aren’t always the neutral parties; they can be the most powerful people on the court. When one of them is compromised, the entire game becomes suspect.
It also forced the NBA to engage directly with the sports betting world. They couldn’t just pretend gambling didn’t exist. They had to work with sportsbooks, track data in real time, and create guardrails that didn’t exist before. Now that legal sports betting is front and center, it only works if leagues can guarantee that the games aren’t being manipulated.
What happened with Donaghy wasn’t only a personal failure, like with the Black Sox scandal, it was a systemic failure. And it forced the NBA to start treating betting integrity like a main part of the business and not some kind of a PR crisis.
Juventus & Calciopoli: Italian Soccer’s Dirty Secrets
Over in Europe, Italian football collapsed under the weight of its own scandalous secrets. The 2006 Calciopoli scandal didn’t only have a few shady calls or a couple of missed penalties; it went so much deeper than that. Club executives, league officials, and referee organizers weren’t only influencing matches; they were manipulating them on a massive scale.
What Happened
The scandal was discovered when Italian prosecutors released tapped phone calls between Juventus director Luciano Moggi and senior referee officials. The content left zero room for interpretation; Moggi was actively steering referee assignments, making sure certain officials landed on games that would go in Juve’s favor or hurt their rivals. One alleged incident involved Moggi locking officials in a dressing room after a disputed loss!
And he wasn’t operating alone. Investigators linked figures at AC Milan, Fiorentina, Lazio, and others to the same web of backchannel influence.
Juventus took the hardest fall of the clubs; it was stripped of its 2004–05 and 2005–06 Serie A titles and relegated to Serie B. Before they even kicked a ball the next season, they were hit with a points penalty. Other clubs involved managed to stay in Serie A after reduced sanctions, but the reputational hit was huge. Referees were suspended, club executives were banned, and some were dragged into criminal courtrooms. But Juventus, which was arguably the face of Italian football, was made the public example.
In addition to the phone logs, there were even more troubling concerns. Officials who made questionable calls weren’t being disciplined. Some weren’t even being reviewed. The entire structure, appointments, accountability, and match oversight had been bent to serve club interests. What looked like it was a competitive league was being managed via back channels.
When the scandal was made public? It changed everything. Fans stopped showing up to games. TV ratings were in the toilet. Broadcasters pulled back on bids for Italian rights. Serie A’s rep tanked across Europe, and it took years to recover.
For bettors, the effect was instantaneous. Oddsmakers began to treat Italian football as volatile. The question wasn’t just “who has the better squad?” but “is this match above board?” Any late line movement or referee swap raised hackles. Sportsbooks got way more cautious with Serie A, and some punters avoided it entirely.
The scandal also triggered a change in how leagues across Europe approached officiating. Referee assignments became more transparent. Betting regulators started flagging suspicious patterns tied to certain clubs or officials. And the idea that a domestic powerhouse could be punished that severely sent a very loud and clear message across the European sports world.
Calciopoli didn’t expose a single bad actor, but a whole intricate system where results could be steered from the boardroom. Referees weren’t being chosen for fairness. They were merely tools used by clubs to protect their position. That kind of interference erodes everything that the sport relies on.
For bettors, that means the usual tools (stats, form trends, player analysis) aren’t enough when league oversight is weak. If the structure behind the game isn’t stable, no prediction is secure. You’re not betting on talent; you’re betting on if the game was allowed to play out honestly.
Italy has spent years rebuilding after Calciopoli. But the damage it caused still reverberates across European betting markets. It’s a stark reminder that when league power goes unchecked, every bet comes with hidden risks.
The 2000 Hansie Cronje Case: Cricket’s Criminal Chapter
Hansie Cronje had the trust of an entire nation. He was respected by his teammates, praised by broadcasters, and admired outside cricket. That all changed in April 2000, when India’s crime branch released phone transcripts tying South Africa’s golden boy to bookmakers. The charismatic cricket leader had taken money from bookmakers to rig matches.
How It Went Down
The break in this scandal came during South Africa’s tour of India. Delhi police were already running a wiretap investigation into organized betting rings when they picked up a string of calls between Cronje and a bookmaker named Sanjay Chawla. The conversations laid out match details, like toss decisions, batting orders, player substitutions, and payments, were attached.
At first, Cronje denied everything. He claimed the recordings were fake and the story was manufactured. That defense didn’t hold up. Within days, the evidence piled up and included cash transfers, hotel meetings, and messages that tied his instructions to outcomes on the field. Under pressure from investigators, Cronje admitted to accepting over $100,000 from bookmakers. And it didn’t end with him. The fallout from his confession pulled in other South African players, including Herschelle Gibbs and Henry Williams, who also admitted they were approached with offers to underperform.
The King Commission hearings made the whole scandalous saga public. Cronje’s credibility was gone, and by October 2000, he was dealt a lifetime ban from cricket; there would be no appeal. Two years later, he died in a plane crash at the age of 32.
Cronje’s admission forced the cricket world to reckon with a problem it had been really slow to acknowledge or confront. The International Cricket Council responded by creating its Anti-Corruption Unit. Governing bodies began tracking player communications more closely. Internal reporting systems were set up to flag suspicious activity. Players started receiving mandatory briefings on how to handle gambling approaches. The structures that exist today, which include monitoring, education, and oversight, are all largely traced back to this scandal.
It also created more risk for bookmakers and bettors. Outcomes in international matches weren’t only being decided by skill or form, no, they were being sold. Trust in the betting markets dropped around matches in less regulated environments. Cronje’s case reminded everyone that even marquee players, playing in front of global audiences, could be compromised.
This wasn’t a one-off blunder for bettors; it exposed just how fragile certain betting environments can be. Especially in leagues that have limited oversight or offshore match setups! The risks are higher than bad picks or bad luck. If the people involved can be swayed by money, then the numbers on the stat sheet don’t mean anything at all.
Cronje’s legacy is really complicated, but the impact of his actions is not. His scandal didn’t only stain a career; it changed the sport’s entire approach to integrity. And it’s why smart bettors now ask more than “who’s in form?” before making a bet.
What These Scandals Teach Modern Bettors
You don’t need to be a history buff to learn from a scandal! It doesn’t matter if it was a ref on the payroll, a captain pocketing envelopes, or a league that turned a blind eye; all of the above scandals left a trail, and with it, lessons for anyone who bets on sports.
Because while the headlines might change, the patterns haven’t. If you’re betting like it’s always a fair game, you’re giving way too much credit to people who’ve proven that they don’t always deserve it.
Common Patterns
What are the most common patterns when it comes to sports betting scandals? The following factors:
- Insider access to decision-making: Whether it was a manager, a ref, or a captain, every scandal involved someone who had real influence over the outcome. Once that person got involved in betting or accepted a bribe, everything downstream, player effort, coaching calls, and officiating, was compromised.
- Loose oversight and unclear accountability: Most of the cases played out in environments where regulators just weren’t prepared. There were no checks on communication, no formal flagging systems for suspicious betting, and zero transparency around decision-making.
- No deterrent until it was too late: In most cases, punishment only came after the damage was done. Careers were ended, yes, but only after bets were placed, results recorded, and trust was already gone.
Takeaways for Bettors
- Only use regulated sportsbooks: If you’re wagering with an unlicensed site or offshore book, you’re playing with no safety net. Regulated books are tied to integrity networks and monitored betting markets. If something looks off? They’ll investigate.
- Ignore people selling “inside info”: If someone is promising you a fix or claiming to know how a game will end, run. Scams like this prey on bettors who are hoping for shortcuts. No legit edge comes from suss messages in Telegram groups or “tipster” TikToks.
- Watch line movement: Sudden shifts in odds are caused by injuries, weather, or late lineup changes. But they can also point to something more suspicious. If a line moves hard for no visible reason, take note and do your due diligence.
- Use data and integrity monitoring tools when available: Almost all sportsbooks and betting markets have real-time alerts on suspicious activity. Tools like these can show you when betting patterns don’t match public expectations.
How the Industry Has Changed Since These Scandals
If there’s any kind of an upside to past scandals? It’s that they forced the industry to stop pretending games will police themselves. Leagues, sportsbooks, and data companies now work together more closely than ever before to flag suspicious behavior before it turns into another Donaghy or Calciopoli!
The Role of Sportsbooks and Betting Data
Sportsbooks aren’t just taking bets; they’re also watching them. Every wager feeds into a system that tracks unusual volume, unexpected line movement, and bets placed under suspicious circumstances. If an obscure tennis match in Eastern Europe suddenly attracts six figures of action in an hour, that doesn’t go unnoticed.

The alerts get passed up to league partners, regulators, and, in some cases, federal investigators. Some sportsbooks will freeze markets mid-game if something looks off. That kind of intervention didn’t exist 20 years ago.
How Leagues Use It
Leagues have stopped acting like betting is a nuisance to be ignored. In the U.S., the NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB all have formal partnerships with betting companies. They’re not doing it for promo codes; they’re plugging into live data streams that help flag patterns, missed red flags, or any outcome that doesn’t match up with the expected model.
In Europe, this is even more embedded. UEFA and the ICC work with third-party integrity firms that audit betting behavior across hundreds of matches each week. It’s not a totally foolproof system, but it gives leagues a fighting chance to catch things early rather than later.
Positive Changes Toward a Safer Betting Environment
The sports betting landscape in the U.S. looks nothing like it did a decade ago, and that’s a very good thing! Since the federal ban was overturned in 2018, legal betting has become one of the most popular pastimes. But it’s not growth for growth’s sake. Regulation, oversight, and transparency have improved dramatically, and that makes the U.S. market one of the more structured environments where you can place a bet.
Licensed sportsbooks are required to follow state-level rules, report unusual betting activity, and cooperate with integrity investigations. Operators in places like New Jersey, Colorado, and Pennsylvania are working under real frameworks. State gaming boards can suspend licenses, pull products, or open investigations if and when they need to. That kind of pressure forces sportsbooks to take integrity seriously.
The NFL, NBA, MLB, and NCAA have all rolled out internal betting policies, education programs, and formal data-sharing agreements with sportsbooks. They’re not relying on “honor systems” anymore; they’re investing in the tools to detect tampering or abuse.
There’s still a lot of room to grow; some states are stricter than others, and enforcement can be uneven, but the general direction is good. The U.S. market is no longer pretending that betting doesn’t exist. It’s regulating it, tracking it, and making the system way harder to exploit, and that’s better for anyone who is putting real money on the line.
Conclusion: Shooketh by Sports Betting Scandals
If there’s one thing the scandals we discussed prove? It’s that no sport, league, or era has ever been totally immune to manipulation. From the baseball diamonds in 1919 to cricket tours in 2000, the common denominator has always been access, influence, and a system that didn’t react fast enough.
That’s changed, at least in part. Oversight has gotten better, the leagues are now more involved, and gambling sites monitor their own data in real time. But there is no setup that is 100% bulletproof, so the risk hasn’t completely disappeared; it’s just morphed into something different.
Here’s a quick refresher on the top 5 betting scandals in sports history and what we can learn from them:
- Past scandals not only ruined reputations; they also pushed sports leagues to build stronger safeguards.
- Regulation always matters, but there is no system that’s capable of catching everything. Stay frosty!
- Smart bettors track context, not only odds. If something feels off, listen to your instincts.
- History tends to repeat itself when people stop paying attention, and all major betting scandals happened because someone thought no one was watching. You can learn from that!
UFC 319 Betting Picks and Predictions – Full Fight Card Breakdown
Nobody saw it coming a week ago, but UFC 319? It’s looking like it’s the last of its kind. The UFC’s Paramount and CBS deal goes through next year, so the pay-per-view era is almost dead and gone; maybe a few will sneak through, but this model’s days are numbered.
But that’s a next year problem, because it’s still fight night on Saturday! The UFC is back in Chicago for the first time in over six years, taking over the United Center with a stacked pay-per-view card headlined by one of the year’s most anticipated matchups.
The headliner is a boogeyman fight; Khamzat Chimaev, who is the most intimidating middleweight contender we’ve seen in a long time (and is undefeated), will finally get his shot at the 185-pound title against reigning champion Dricus Du Plessis. And since Du Plessis asked for this fight? He wants it bad. Or maybe he’s a sadist, we aren’t sure yet.
We’ll find out when they step into the Octagon!
There are four high-profile main card fights and an absolutely stacked prelim slate, making UFC 319 one of the most competitive cards of the year.
What should you be watching for when the fighters in the Octagon kick off (literally, they’ll kick each other)? We’ve got the goods on what’s going down: the full fight card, the main event breakdown, live betting odds, and what we think are the five best bets for all of the bloody action!
Event Overview
- Event: UFC 319
- When: Saturday, August 16
- Where: United Center in Chicago, Illinois
- Schedule: Early Prelims: ~6:00 pm ET; Prelims: ~8:00 pm ET; Main Card (PPV $79.99): ~10:00 pm ET via ESPN+
- How to Watch: Streaming on ESPN/ESPN+/Disney+
- Broadcast Team Highlights: Joe Rogan is back on the mic with Jon Anik and Daniel Cormier. At the desk, Dustin Poirier joins Anthony Smith, Chael Sonnen, and Michael Chiesa, hosted by Brendan Fitzgerald. Charli Arnolt and Din Thomas will be on the ground for live coverage from the United Center.
- See the full UFC 319 card
Full Fight Card
Chicago’s getting a fully loaded lineup for UFC 319! There’s a title fight at the top, a high-stakes featherweight co-main, and a sprinkling of proven contenders and rising names facing off. Here’s how the night is gonna look:
Main Card (PPV)
- Middleweight Title: Dricus du Plessis (c) vs. Khamzat Chimaev
- Featherweight Co-Main: Aaron Pico vs. Lerone Murphy
- Welterweight: Carlos Prates vs. Geoff Neal
- Middleweight: Michael Page vs. Jared Cannonie
- Flyweight: Kai Asakura vs. Tim Elliott
Key Prelim Bouts
- Middleweight: Michał Oleksiejczuk vs. Gerald Meerschaert
- Women’s Strawweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Loopy Godinez
- Lightweight: Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
- Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs. Drakkar Klose
- Middleweight: Bryan Battle vs. Nursulton Ruziboev
- Women’s Flyweight: Karine Silva vs. Dione Barbosa
Prelim Note
- The lightweight prelim bout between King Green and Diego Ferreira was scratched due to an injury to Green, and no replacement has been arranged for Ferreira.
- In one of the most rapid turnarounds in recent memory, Baysangur Susurkaev, who clinched his UFC contract with a body-shot KO on Dana White’s Contender Series, hopped into the UFC 319 lineup only three days later to face Eric Nolan.
Main Event Breakdown: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev
Chicago won’t be getting a gentlemanly title fight. It’s gonna be a street brawl between two men who want to break each other in half. Dricus du Plessis is defending his belt and daring Khamzat Chimaev to go hard until one of them gasses out.
Chimaev’s unbeaten and mean as heck, but he’s never been dragged into the kind of championship rounds that du Plessis lives for.
- Du Plessis took the middleweight crown by edging Sean Strickland via split decision at UFC 297, then wrenched it out of Israel Adesanya’s hands with a brutal Round 4 face-crank at UFC 305.
- He’s on a nine-fight UFC winning streak, tying Chris Weidman for the third-longest in division history, and he’s made a habit of breaking opponents in Rounds 3 and 4, when their stamina literally bleeds out of their bodies.
- Chimaev is 14–0, bodying elite names in the first half of his fights.
- He wrecked Robert Whittaker in Round 1, bullied Kamaru Usman through three rounds, and took out Gerald Meerschaert in 17 seconds.
- Du Plessis does his best fighting past the 15-minute mark; Chimaev has never been forced to go that long.
- The champ’s taunt? Du Plessis said to Chimaev,
- “Let’s go full speed, see who quits.”
- Expert Chris Weidman’s call? Du Plessis, because if Chimaev can’t take him out by Round 3, Weidman says the belt isn’t going anywhere.
Betting Odds Snapshot
Throwing your metaphorical hat in the octagon and betting on this fight? Check out the latest odds and lines via FanDuel:
- Previous lines:
- Du Plessis +180 | Chimaev –235 — Chimaev –220 | Du Plessis +180
- Pico –195 | Murphy +165
- Prates –260 | Neal +210
- Page –180 | Cannonier +150
Our 5 Best Bets
#1 Dricus du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
- Bet: Du Plessis via decision or late stoppage
- Odds: Du Plessis +198 vs. Chimaev –240
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
Du Plessis has finished or outpointed elite opponents past the 15-minute mark, and Chimaev’s never been there. If the challenger can’t put him away early? The champion’s output and attrition game will take over.
#2 Aaron Pico vs. Lerone Murphy
- Bet: Lerone Murphy moneyline
- Odds: Murphy +146 vs. Pico –174
- Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
Murphy’s patient boxing, counter-timing, and his ability to sprawl off the first shot can force Pico into really ugly stand-up exchanges where Murphy’s jab and range control will win rounds.
#3 Carlos Prates vs. Geoff Neal
- Bet: Over 2.5 rounds or Neal ML
- Odds: Prates –215 vs. Neal +180
- Our Confidence Level: 6/10
Why Do We Like It?
Neal’s taken a lot of heavy shots from bigger punchers without breaking, and Prates usually builds his offense in deliberate phases. If Neal commands the pocket and forces clinch breaks, this can reach the scorecards, and Neal is capable of winning late rounds.
#4 Jared Cannonier vs. Michael Page
- Bet: Cannonier ML
- Odds: Cannonier +162 vs. Page –194
- Our Confidence Level: 7/10
Why Do We Like It?
Cannonier’s forward pressure cuts off the cage and forces Page into bad spots. And once that space disappears? Cannonier’s inside work and physicality can sway the judges or end the fight outright.
#5 Baisangur Susurkaev (Late Addition at UFC Prelims)
- Bet: Susurkaev to finish (any method)
- Odds: Susurkaev -950 vs Nolan +610 (Not listed yet, but there’s high value due to a lot of hype and low market exposure)
- Our Confidence Level: 5/10
Why Do We Like It?
Only three days after a contract-winning knockout on Contender Series, Susurkaev goes in ready to push a breakneck opening. His pace and shot selection in early rounds can overwhelm an opponent who is still trying to adapt to the matchup.
Additional Props & Parlay Ideas
In addition to our best bets, we’ve got a few additional prop bets and parlay picks!
- Chimaev KO/TKO: Markets are leaning toward a Chimaev finish, with KO/TKO sitting around -175 in some previews. Given Du Plessis’ durability, that price might be inflated compared to other angles.
- Underdog Shots: Elliot Round 1 submission at +1800 is worth a sprinkle against an opponent who’s vulnerable to early grappling pressure. Du Plessis via split/majority decision at +1600 plays into the possibility of a drawn-out, competitive fight. Murphy on a +3.5 points spread can cover a close loss or narrow win.
- Parlay Play: A three-leg ticket linking Du Plessis ML, a Neal-related outcome, and one additional confident pick lines up at about +189.
How to Watch Recap
- Early Prelims: ~6:00 pm ET
- Prelims: ~8:00 pm ET
- Main Card (PPV): ~10:00 pm ET, and is available on ESPN+ PPV in the U.S.
- Coverage: Early bouts will stream on ESPN+, Disney+, and ESPN; the main card requires a purchase via ESPN+ (U.S. viewers)
Endurance vs. Explosiveness—Who Wins?
If Du Plessis can survive the opening round on his feet, make Chimaev work, and chip away at him, this fight starts to go his way. Chimaev’s opening blitz is still the most violent start in all of the UFC, and Du Plessis knowing it’s coming doesn’t make it any easier to handle.
The question is whether Chimaev can toss Du Plessis around the cage the way he has with most opponents. That’s not a small task; it’s more like trying to pick up and throw a refrigerator. And the size edge Chimaev showed when they crossed paths in Chicago? That’s hard to set aside.
For Du Plessis, the plan is a simple one: fight like Du Plessis. His awkward, unpredictable style has stolen control of fights in a second, even when he looks drained after Round 1. But he somehow ramps up in the later rounds when others tire. And in true Du Plessis fashion, the most unexpected outcome, like a submission over Chimaev, could be what happens.
- Stakes: Du Plessis’ ability to push a fight into the late rounds against Chimaev’s opening-round aggression.
- Betting Angle: Du Plessis has pricing appeal, and there are a few live underdogs that are worth a look.
- Variables: Short-notice replacements and bout cancellations mean the matchups can be unpredictable.
- Reminder: Bet responsibly and tune in for the post-fight analysis!
Best Bets Recap
- Dricus du Plessis via decision or Round 4–5 stoppage: +198ML | Confidence: 7/10
- Lerone Murphy ML: +146| Confidence: 6/10
- Over 2.5 rounds or Geoff Neal ML: Prates –215 / Neal +180| Confidence: 6/10
- Jared Cannonier ML: +162| Confidence: 7/10
- Baysangur Susurkaev to finish (any method): Odds TBD | Confidence: 5/10
Our Final Best Bet: It’s Dricus du Plessis ML; his stamina and proven five-round output make this the play! Our confidence level for this bet is a solid 7/10.
Stay ahead of the action—odds can shift quickly as fight night approaches, so check the latest lines before locking in your wagers. For maximum value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites to find trusted platforms with great odds and fast payouts.
Inter Miami vs. LA Galaxy Prediction & Betting Preview (August 16, 2025)
Inter Miami are limping back to Florida after getting thumped by Orlando 1-4, and the Galaxy aren’t in better shape after their four-goal embarrassment in Seattle.
The two clubs will play on Saturday at 7:30 pm at Chase Stadium, which starts a busy run for Inter Miami. After this one, they have their August 20 Leagues Cup knockout fixture.
Both are licking their wounds and are less concerned with style points and are more focused on getting at least some momentum back before the Cup resumes.
Inter Miami had a scare with Messi, but he returned to practice on Thursday, so it looks like he and Suárez are both in position to helm the attack. They’ve been ruthless at home when they’re given the space to work, and LA Galaxy will have to find ways to slow down their combos in the final third.
The Galaxy is sitting at long odds as the underdogs, but they’ve shown that they can rise to the occasion when they need to. Their form has been inconsistent this year, but at +400 or longer, bettors who are willing to back them will hope they can disrupt Miami’s flow and drag this game into a scrappier contest.
Miami is the heavy favorite, but is it warranted? We get into it all below with recent form, team momentum, live betting odds, tactical matchup, main battles, our picks for the three best bets, and who we’re backing with a final score prediction!
Game Details & Broadcast Info
- Matchup: Inter Miami CF (12-6-5) vs. LA Galaxy (3-7-15)
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 16, at 7:30 pm ET
- Venue: Chase Stadium, Miami, FL
- How to Watch: Apple TV with the MLS Season Pass
Quick Stats
- Miami is still in the running for the 2025 Supporters’ Shield.
- The LA Galaxy are the reigning MLS Cup champions.
- Kickoff weather: It’ll be 86°F, partly cloudy, with some light humidity, and those are perfect conditions for a fast-paced soccer game.
Recent Form & Momentum

Inter Miami CF
- Miami’s loss to Orlando broke a solid streak and set up a pressure-filled return to Chase Stadium
- Inter Miami’s 2025 home record is 6–3–2, with a 12-goal differential (50 goals scored, 38 conceded) across all competitions
- Messi has 18 goals this season, with Suárez and Alba still influencing games.
- De Paul and Busquets are directing play and breaking defensive lines from midfield.

LA Galaxy
- Only 2 wins in their last 10 matches, and there were multiple dropped points in winnable games.
- LA’s midfield has been weakened by injuries, and that makes ball retention a challenge.
- Road record: 2W–1D–8L.
- The Galaxy relies heavily on set pieces and late surges to create scoring chances.
Edge
Miami’s home form and offensive organization give them a heavy advantage against LA.
Live Odds & Betting Market Breakdown
You can’t bet without knowing the odds! Here are the latest lines courtesy of DraftKings:
Moneyline (3-way)
- Inter Miami -215
- Draw +370
- LA Galaxy +425
Both Teams to Score
- Yes -230
- No +180
Over/Under
- Over 3.5 (-115)
- Under 3.5 (-110)
Analysis
- Oddsmakers have Miami favored in a match that’s projected to produce multiple goals.
- Better angles may be in totals or alternative lines, like Over 3.5.
- Miami’s possession game and expected goals profile signal a steady attacking tilt in their favor.
Tactical Matchup & Main Battles
Inter Miami has the ability to change up their approach and shape depending on the opponent, using Alba’s overlapping runs to stretch LA’s back line and Messi dropping deeper to link play. In midfield, De Paul covers ground box-to-box while Busquets organizes and recycles possession. At home, the Messi–Suárez–Taylor trio has averaged more than 3 xG per match.
Inter Miami
- Alba’s overlaps create width and force defensive shifts.
- De Paul drives transitions as Busquets controls passing lanes.
- Miami’s front three generates high shot volume and solid chances at home.
LA Galaxy
- LA will try to counter with speed down the wings.
- They’ll target set pieces, especially the corners, where Miami has conceded multiple goals this season.
- They’ll pack the middle to push Messi wide and limit his ability to dictate centrally.
Main Matchups
- Alba vs. Galaxy’s right flank: Jordi Alba’s overlapping runs will repeatedly test LA’s right side, forcing defenders into two-on-one situations if the winger doesn’t track back.
- Busquets vs. Delgado: Sergio Busquets’ ability to control tempo through short, accurate passes will challenge Mark Delgado to break up play and prevent Miami from dictating possession in midfield.
- Messi vs. LA’s double pivot: Messi will try to exploit the pockets between the Galaxy’s two central midfielders, which takes disciplined positioning to prevent him from turning and creating in dangerous areas.
Historical Context & What’s at Stake
Inter Miami and LA Galaxy haven’t built up a rivalry yet, but the stakes? They make this one worth watching.
All-Time Head-to-Head
These clubs have only met three times in MLS play, splitting one win each and sharing a draw. Their last encounter came in the 2024 regular season, ending in a 1–1 stalemate. There’s no postseason history between them, so every meeting still feels like new territory.
Motivations
Inter Miami are in the midst of the Supporters’ Shield race and are still a top MLS Cup contender, making every point critical for seeding. The LA Galaxy are fighting to lock in a Wild Card playoff spot, so dropping points here would be a major setback.
Undercurrents
This could be (emphasis on could, we aren’t breaking news here, it’s just rumors at this point) Lionel Messi’s final MLS season, and if true, that adds weight to every home appearance. It’s also the last time Miami will host LA Galaxy at Chase Stadium before their planned move in 2026, giving the home crowd an extra reason to crank up the volume.
Our Best Bets
The sportsbooks all have Miami as the clear favorites, but there are some other decent angles that are worth a look!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Inter Miami -215 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5) | Miami has a strong home record, and LA has had a bad time on the road. It’s safe, but the payout is limited. |
Over 3.5 (-115) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5) | Miami’s attack plus LA’s defensive issues point to a high tally. |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS) – Yes (-230) | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3/5) | LA’s capable of nicking one, especially if they’re chasing, and both clubs generate high xG. |
Fade the Underdog? Hang On, Not So Fast!
We’re backing Miami at home, but the more attractive plays? They’re in the goal markets. LA can keep it interesting if they don’t fall behind early on, which makes Over 3.5 and a Messi goal at plus money worth targeting alongside the Miami moneyline.
Keep your bets in the 3–4 unit range unless the Galaxy number pushes past +475, and monitor live lines for value if Miami concedes first!
Best Bets Recap
- Over 3.5 Goals: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
- Messi Anytime Scorer: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
- Inter Miami ML: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)
- BTTS – Yes: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3/5)
Final Score Prediction: Inter Miami 3 – 1 LA Galaxy
Messi strikes early, Miami controls long spells, and LA nets one goal late in the game.
Keep tracking the latest odds from top sportsbooks right up to game time—lines can shift fast, and spotting those changes could give you the winning edge.
