Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction & Top Bets (June 19, 2025)
Dodger Stadium will be lit up tonight as it hosts a game between two Cali teams. San Diego rookie Ryan Bergert will be on the hill in Los Angeles after making his MLB debut in April and delivering a 2.33 ERA over three starts; he had 16 strikeouts and under one WHIP.
Ohtani isn’t starting tonight, as the Dodgers are spacing out his pitching appearances; he’s on a once-a-week schedule as he builds back up from Tommy John surgery. Bergert will face off against Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who has a 2.64 ERA, 90 strikeouts, and a sub-1.10 WHIP on the season.
The Dodgers have the upper hand in the NL West, having won 28 of 40 at home, and they swept their last series against San Diego. The Padres have dropped three in a row on the road and rank as “below average” (analysts’ words, not ours!) in most offensive metrics.
Yamamoto has some sick pitches in his arsenal, and Dodger Stadium does favor his style, and the rookie Bergert hasn’t had to throw to elite batters.
Who’ve we got winning this one? Read on to see the game details, pitching stats, betting odds, and our best bets!
Game Overview
- Matchup: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 19, 10:10 pm ET (7:10 pm local PT)
- Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 24–12 at home this season, and the Padres are 18–19 on the road
- Broadcast: MLB Network, local broadcasts, or stream on MLB.tv
- Weather Forecast: Clear skies and mild temps; 72°F at first pitch with a light breeze toward center field
Starting Pitchers
Who’s throwing tonight? These are the pitchers who will be on the hill first:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
- Record: 6–5 | ERA: 2.64 | ~90 strikeouts
- Limits hits and walks; strong home performance
- Good matchup against San Diego’s strikeout-prone lineup
Ryan Bergert (SD)
- Record: 1–0 | ERA: 2.33 | 16 strikeouts
- Making his first career start against the Dodgers
- He’s pitched at least five innings in each of his three appearances this season without giving up more than two runs
Betting Odds & Trends
How are the odds lining up for tonight? Here are the latest betting odds according to DraftKings:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Padres | +1.5 (+107) | +216 | Over 9 (-101) |
Dodgers | -1.5 (-131) | -272 | Under 9 (-120) |
Dodgers Betting Trends
- 64.5% win rate (40–22) as favorites in 62 games
- 8–1 in their last 9 games when listed at –250 or shorter
- Home games have gone Over in 25 of their last 40
Padres Betting Trends
- 15–20 as underdogs this season (42.9% win rate)
- Unders hit in 31 of their 72 total games (about 44%)
Head‑to‑Head & Recent Form
- Current series sweep: Dodgers have won all three games so far (4–3, 8–6, 6–3).
- Last 5 home matchups: Four games went Over, one went Under, showing there are higher-scoring trends at Dodger Stadium.
- Season series: Dodgers lead the season matchup 5-1
Our Best Bets
What are we looking at? Below is a quick breakdown of where the value sits for this game. Yamamoto’s on the hill, and it’s been a lopsided series up until this point, so most betting angles are leaning toward the Dodgers, but there’s still some room for prop and total plays depending on the number. Here are our three picks for best bets:
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Dodgers –250 | L.A. has owned this series, is on point at home, and Yamamoto is an elite pitcher. | A (★★★★) |
Padres 1st 5 Innings Under 1.5 | The Padres have had some trouble getting going vs. right-handers, and Yamamoto shuts teams down in the early innings. | A– (★★★☆) |
Over 8.5 Total Runs | Despite the pitching advantage, Dodgers’ bats can pile on, and bullpen innings could get messy. | B+ (★★★) |
FYI: Adjust your wager size to match your usual strategy!
Game Flow & What to Watch
- Opening stretch: Can Yamamoto hold San Diego hitless through the first trip in the order?
- Bergert’s first test vs. LAD: Watch how Bergert handles Mookie Betts and Ohtani in the opening two innings.
- Middle relief factor: Dodgers’ bridge arms have been really good, but an early exit from Bergert could put pressure on San Diego’s bullpen by the fifth.
- Big hitters: Ohtani and Tatis Jr. have both homered this week, so either at-bat could change the game.
Our Prediction Recap & How to Bet It
Final Score Prediction: Dodgers 6, Padres 3
The Dodgers don’t have to overcomplicate this one. Since Yamamoto is starting and the hitters are doing their job (and doing them well) all series long, they’re in a really good spot to wrap this up with a fourth straight win. They’ve had San Diego’s number this week, and the glaring gap between the rotations tonight is impossible to ignore.
Bergert’s shown some decent control in shorter outings, but asking him to handle this lineup at Dodger Stadium? And without a lot of run support behind him? That’s a big reach. He could hold it together for a few frames, but it’s a huge ask from the rookie.
Here are the bets we’re backing: Dodgers ML (even at the cost), Padres 1st 5 Under 1.5, and a watchful eye on the Over 8.5 depending on how long Bergert lasts. The game depends on if the Padres can get anything early. If they can’t? This game slides toward LA again.
NOTE: Always double-check the odds across sportsbooks before you place any bets! They can change as it gets closer to first pitch. And as always, please gamble responsibly!
