San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction (June 16, 2025)
The NL West spotlight is headed to Chavez Ravine on Monday night as the Padres and Dodgers meet on the field in a high-leverage showdown. There are standings on the line, people! Only one game separates the two long-time rivals, and the outcome of this series? It could shift the summer.
All eyes will be on the mound; Dylan Cease is expected to start for San Diego, but there was big news announced last night—Dodgers two-way star Shohei Ohtani is set to make his return to the hill!
This marks Ohtani’s first pitching appearance in 22 months following his elbow surgery, and it’s his first start as a pitcher in a Dodgers uniform. Sorry, Ben Casparius! You’ve been benched for this one.
We’re excited to see what Ohtani brings to LA, and it should be a pretty good show! Keep scrolling to read all about this matchup, the latest betting odds, and, of course, our picks for the best bets for the opener!
Game Overview
- Matchup: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Date & Time: Monday, June 16, 10:10 pm ET (7:10 pm local PT)
- Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 24–12 at home this season, and the Padres are 18–19 on the road
- Broadcast: MLBN (MLB Network)
- Weather Forecast: Around 77°F and clear evening skies in Los Angeles
Prediction Breakdown
42.2%
57.8%
According to GamblingSite.com
Starting Pitchers Breakdown
There are two really high-profile arms throwing, but only one has logged innings this season. Cease is coming off his best start of the year. Ohtani hasn’t thrown a pitch in a game since 2023.
Padres – Dylan Cease
- 2–5, 4.28 ERA, 1.30 WHIP over 75.2 IP
Cease hasn’t been reliable in most starts this season, but he ran through the Dodgers in their last game. He went seven whole innings without allowing a run and struck out 11 hitters. His fastball was on point, the slider was working off the plate, and LA couldn’t adapt. If he finds that same command again? The Padres are in a good spot to win the opener.
Dodgers – Shohei Ohtani
- First pitching appearance since August 2023
Ohtani makes his Dodgers pitching debut after almost 2 years of being off the mound. He’s stayed active as a hitter, but this is his first time against live batters since his elbow reconstruction. He’ll probably be capped around 60 pitches, and the bullpen will be ready to go. He’s expected to rely on his usual combo: a high-90s fastball, splitter with late drop, and a sweeping slider. What’s unknown is how accurate his location will be and if he can handle multiple innings at full speed.
Recent Form & Key Trends
The Padres broke out of a slump with a win in Arizona, and the Dodgers keep masking rotation holes with big hitters and bullpen coverage. Both teams have their flaws, but they’re coming in off wins.
San Diego stopped a four-game slide with an 8–2 win over the Diamondbacks, getting RBIs from six players. No one carried the lineup; it was spread out, which is what they’ve needed. The real signal came from the mound: Dylan Cease blanked the Dodgers a few days ago, going 7 innings with 11 strikeouts. That 11–1 win wasn’t a one-off, either; he kept hitters off balance and attacked early in counts. He’s back on regular rest and will get the same lineup again.
Los Angeles beat the uniform pants off the Giants 11–5 on Saturday behind a two-homer day from Teoscar Hernández and a three-hit night from Ohtani. The offense is moving, but the rotation isn’t built to maintain long leads as of now. Gonsolin, May, and Kershaw are still out. Casparius filled in last week and did well—four innings, one run—but he’s out as of last night’s announcement that Ohtani will be starting. We will see a strict pitch count and bullpen involvement in the early innings. That puts a lot more pressure on LA’s middle relief, and they’ve been stretched out pretty thinly since mid-May.
Head-to-Head Series
- The Dodgers won the opener 8–7 in 10 innings
- Padres followed with an 11–1 rout behind Cease
- The Dodgers took the third game 5–2 to claim the series
- LA has a 2–1 advantage in the season matchup
- Tensions are still there from the 2024 NLDS; San Diego eliminated Los Angeles
Latest Betting Odds
Here are the most recent betting odds and lines via ESPN BET:
| Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total Runs |
|---|---|---|---|
Padres | +1.5 (-155) | +130 | Over 8.5 (-120) |
Dodgers | -1.5 (+130) | -155 | Under 8.5 (EVEN) |
The Dodgers are favored due to Ohtani returning to pitch. The total is sitting at 8.5, with slight juice on the over. San Diego gets the run-line cushion at a steep price, and LA backers get plus money on a multi-run win!
Betting Angle & Best Bets
And now for our picks! Look below for what we think are the two best bets for this opener.
Bet #1 – Padres Moneyline (+130)
- Cease handled the Dodgers no sweat in their last meetup: 7 innings, 11 strikeouts, and not one run allowed.
- He’s back on schedule and facing basically the same lineup.
- Ohtani will likely be limited to 3–4 innings, and that’ll force LA to rely on a bullpen that’s already been working heavy innings.
- At +130, San Diego is undervalued against a pitcher making his first start since 2023.
Bet #2 – Under 8.5 Total Runs (–120)
- With Ohtani on a pitch limit and Cease in form, this projects as a slower-scoring game.
- The Dodgers can score, but Cease shut them down, and San Diego’s bullpen is well-rested.
- If Ohtani exits early, the Dodgers will have to rely on a bullpen that hasn’t been reliable in high-leverage spots.
- A total of 8.5 feels inflated considering how both pitchers are expected to be used.
Ohtani’s return changed the odds a little, but not enough to make the Padres unplayable! There is uncertainty about how long Ohtani will pitch, so there’s some real value here.
Props to Watch
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105): Machado has six hits in his last three games, including three for extra bases. He’s seeing the ball really well and should get at least one plate appearance against the bullpen. At plus money, this number has value given his recent contact quality.
- Dylan Cease Over 5.5 Strikeouts: Cease has gone over this number in three of his last five starts and has already proved that he can put away this lineup. If he keeps his pitch count manageable and gets through six innings? This clears without needing a spike game.
Padres vs. Dodgers – Our Prediction
Final Score Prediction: Padres 4 – Dodgers 2
San Diego finally got production from their entire lineup in the win over Arizona, and they’ll have their best available starter pitching. Cease easily handled the Dodgers last week and comes into the game on full rest.
Ohtani’s return comes with a lot of “what if’s.” He hasn’t pitched since 2023, so the Dodgers are expected to limit his workload. And that puts extra pressure on a bullpen that’s already been logging heavy innings.
The Padres have the better starting option, the more stable pitching setup, and the hitters that can take advantage once LA goes to relief. This is a game that they can take on the road!
