Green Bay Packers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction (October 26, 2025)
The Packers travel to Pittsburgh in what will be the Week 8 primetime spotlight. Like you, we are most eager to see how Aaron Rodgers welcomes his former team, who are favored, by the way, at -3 with a total of 45.5.
Both teams have injuries to deal with, but we also know that the Steelers are strong at home. And against the Packers, who want to prove something on the road, the matchup looks to be an intense one.
We do expect the Packers to cover the -3 spread, but we also think you might find value in a prop bet. This guide will explore all our betting angles and surprises as we analyze injuries, momentum, and road struggles. With that said, here’s all you need to know about the Packers and the Steelers game, and our best picks.
Game Info Snapshot
- Date and Location: Sunday, October 26, 2025 | Kickoff primetime (NBC/Peacock) at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA.
- Team records entering the game:
- Packers: 4-1-1 record
- Steelers: 4-2 record
- Odds (from FanDuel)
- Spread: Packers -3 (-104) | Steelers +3 (-118)
- Moneyline: Packers -154 | Steelers +130
- Total: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Based on the odds, it’d be safe to say, expect a close game but not a blowout favorite. As such, the betting value and matchup details are crucial.
Storylines to Watch
The most notable storyline to watch out for is Rodgers’s encounter with his former team, the Packers. Rodgers is now with Pittsburgh, and this clash will be the first time he faces his former franchise. Although he says there’s “no animosity” between him and the team, we can’t help but notice the huge optics there.
Other storylines that will influence this game’s performance include the following:
- The Packers want to prove something on the road and improve their shaky road record. That also includes its historic weakness when facing Pittsburgh on the road. They lost their 2023 clash when traveling to Pittsburgh’s home.
- We’ve seen improvements with Pittsburgh’s offense, which has built up momentum at home. The team is building even more confidence with Rodgers at the helm.
- Both sides have injuries and inconsistencies. For the Packers, DE Lukas Van Ness is likely out with a foot problem, while receivers remain thin, even with the expected return of WR Christian Watson. The Steelers, on the other hand, will have to play without S Miles Killebrew for the entire season, as he is out with a knee injury.
We believe the spread is modest at 3 points. That, plus the injuries and edge matchups, means we might get value in the side or the total. The public might also lean towards the Packers, creating contrarian opportunities.
Team Profiles
Green Bay Packers
The Packers have a 4-1-1 record, scoring 27+ points in five of their first six games. Here are other key details to note about the team:
- Offensive strengths: The team has impressive performances from QB Jordan Love and RB Josh Jacobs. Jordan has a 69.3% comp rate, 1,438 yards, and 10 TDs/2 INTS. Josh, on the other hand, is productive, with 111 carries, 414 rushing yards, and 8 TDs.
- Defensive notes & concerns: Van Ness has been ruled out of the Pittsburgh clash, delivering a big blow to the Packers’ DL depth. The overall run defense and consistency performance don’t look dominant either, as the team is ranked 15th in rushing yards and 21st in yards per carry allowed.
- Injury & roster bumps: Van Ness isn’t the only notable player who will miss the Pittsburgh class. Receivers like Wicks and Reed have also been sidelined, even though Watson’s potential return will be helpful. The OL/defensive depth isn’t at its best with Banks, Tom, and Hobbs listed as questionable with groin, back, and knee injuries.
- Betting trends: Road games remain a challenge for the Packers, as their ATS is weak.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh leads the AFC North at this stage with a 4-2 record. It gets its core offensive strength from Aaron Rodgers, who has completed ~68.6% of his passes, reached 1,270 yards, and has 14 TDs/5 INTs so far. WR DK Metcalf also boosts big-play potential for the team.
Other notable facts include the following:
- Defensive notes & concerns: The loss of Miles Killebrew (out for the rest of the season) leaves a vacuum at safety. Nonetheless, the homefield gives the Steelers the edge, especially with a strong pass rush, even though we still have concerns with the offensive line.
- Injuries & roster concerns: CB Joey Porter Jr.’s hamstring status is still unclear, and we expect WR Calvin Austin III to practice. Both will boost the Steelers significantly.
- Trend note: The Steelers have been stronger at home. As such, this game offers them a chance to cement the momentum.
Key Matchups & Angles
Here are the key matchups and angles to look out for:
- Rodgers vs. his old team: We expect an emotional undercurrent here and are also eager to see how the Packers’ defense will respond to a QB who knows their system.
- Packers’ DL vs. Steelers’ OL & Rodgers’ pocket: The question here is whether Green Bay can generate enough pressure now that Van Ness is out. If it doesn’t, Rodgers can exploit and swing the game.
- Packers’ run game vs. Steelers’ rush defense: Green Bay can dictate the tempo and keep Rodgers off the field if it controls the ground.
- Steelers’ pass rush vs. Packers’ OL: Jordan Love might get rattled and turn conservative if Pittsburgh gets pressure early.
- Game script considerations: The first script is that the Packers may abandon the run and get into a shoot-out mode if the Steelers jump ahead via Rodgers. This approach can push the total. On the other hand, if the Packers dominate the line of scrimmage early, they may control the tempo and keep the scoring modest, favoring the under.
- Betting angle: With just 3 points in the spread, we believe the value might lie in stopping the public lean and looking for a mismatch exploitation instead. We still recommend you monitor late injury reports and the weather/field impact—October in Pittsburgh can get tricky.
Betting Trends & Odds Context
The current odds via FanDuel:
- Spread: Packers -3 (-104) | Steelers +3 (-118)
- Moneyline: Packers -154 | Steelers +130
- Total: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Below are other key betting trends to keep in mind:
- Model projections: Some simulation models give the Packers a ~60-62% win probability.
- Against-the-spread (ATS) history: The Packers have been inconsistent on the road. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has seen better performance at home than the record suggests.
- Total implications: With a 45.5 line and the potential for a slower-paced game, the under may have appeal, especially when you consider injuries and the playoff style.
- Injury reports and late movement: Key injuries like Van Ness or Watson’s status could tilt the line. As such, we recommend you monitor the active/inactive lists after the Thursday/Friday practice.
- Public vs. sharp money: We might get a potential value on the Steelers or alternative lines if the public favors the Packers heavily.
Best Bets for Packers vs. Steelers
Pick 1: Packers -3 (Spread) – Confidence: 7/10
Why We Like It
The Packers have a slight edge with the -3 spread, and we don’t expect a blowout. But it is also worth noting that while the spread reflects respect for the Packers, it also acknowledges Pittsburgh’s home-field advantage.
Green Bay has a strong form (4-1-1) with a potent offense, while Pittsburgh, although solid, is still integrating the new QB dynamic.
The historical all-time Pittsburgh record of 7-9 (for Green Bay) suggests that the Steelers are vulnerable and not dominant, even though the Packers haven’t had much success there. But now, with Pittsburgh’s transition and Green Bay’s momentum, the value appears to tilt slightly toward Green Bay covering.
Risks/What to Watch
Green Bay tends to underperform ATS when away. If the team reverts, the spread becomes riskier. Another risk is Aaron Rodgers’s familiarity with the Packers. He will undoubtedly exploit that angle, even as the Steelers get motivated. If that happens, the game flow could tighten the margin further.
Monitor the injury reports in the morning of the kickoff. If key Packers players sit, the value may no longer be in this bet.
Pick 2: Under 45.5 (Total Points) – Confidence 6/10
Why We Like It
The total is set at 45.5, which is moderate. As such, you can expect a controlled pace and a game of attrition rather than a shootout.
If we look at the matchups, then you’ll see that the Packers’ defense has some vulnerabilities, especially without key DL. The Steelers’ offense has improved, but we won’t say they have reached the elite, high-scoring level. That combination points to fewer possessions and possibly fewer big plays.
Another aspect we looked at is the weather and the prime-time home scenario. Pittsburgh in October could opt for a slower pace, with emphasis on running and defense. Both support the under.
Risks/What to Watch
The scoring could accelerate if both QBs open up the passing game early or one team falls behind and becomes aggressive. Another thing that could overshoot the total is if either team’s defense fails to show up, especially with the Packers missing key DL.
Rodgers brings big-play potential, as facing his old team might trigger elevated performance. Watch out for early turnover, blowout scenarios, and special teams impact as well, as these could flip the total.
One way you can mitigate the risks in this match is to monitor the first-quarter flow. If teams score quickly, the value on the under may drop.
Pick 3: Prop Play – Rodgers OVER 1.5 Passing TDs – Confidence: 5/10
Why We Like It
Rodgers knows the Packers’ defense, which will give him better reads and quicker decisions. He also has an even better capacity and motivation with the Steelers’ added weapons and upward-trending offense.
When it comes to historical matchups against the Packers’ defense, similar QBs have succeeded. You also have to note that Over 1.5 passing TDs is modest and requires two TDs. The mark is feasible, given the motivations of playing against former teammates, but not a slam dunk.
Risks/What to Watch
Rodgers may be pressured or forced into mistakes if the Packers’ pass rush shows up or the Steelers’ run defense forces action. Another factor would be the game script. If it becomes a tight, run-heavy contest, then fewer passing TDs might emerge.
The Steelers lean heavily on Rodgers, but his edge and possible rust or early-season wear might limit upside. We recommend you monitor the red zone efficiency and see if the Steelers show blitz packages early. That can inflate passing TD chances.
Final Verdict: Leaning Packers, Respecting Steelers
The Packers have the potential to win by 3 and cover the spread. They have the winning momentum and a potent offense that will have to face a vulnerable Steelers. Nevertheless, Rodgers’ familiarity with the Packers remains the greatest threat to undoing their gameplay.
Monitor late injury reports, line movements, and public money leaning. Maintain bankroll discipline and do not overleverage.
We’d love to hear your own thoughts on this matchup. Kindly share them in the comment section, and we might pick up one or two crucial angles.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 24, Steelers 21
