Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview & Prediction for Sept. 28, 2025
The Green Bay Packers and the Dallas Cowboys have decades of history between them, and we’ll get to see that tension in this matchup. To us, it’s a clash between two iconic franchises, and it’ll take grit to win.
As for the favorite in the game, Green Bay comes out on top because of a touchdown on the road. Nevertheless, the line indicates that oddsmakers still respect Dallas’s potential to hang around, and we agree.
We’ll get to see how Micah Parsons, who once defined the Cowboys’ defense, now suits up against them. This matchup will be an emotional one for both locker rooms, and we’ll see just how well Micah Parsons uses his experience with the Cowboys against them.
The odds to consider in this game are:
- Packers −7 (−105) | Cowboys +7 (−115)
- Packers ML −345 | Cowboys ML +275
- Over/Under 47.5 (O −105 / U −115)
Game Context & Background
- The Green Bay Packers lead the all-time series 22-17.
- We’ll give it to the Green Bays on this one, as their recent clash leans heavily towards them. The team has beaten the Dallas Cowboys in 5 of its last 6 clashes, with its latest win being the 2024 wild-card playoff at Arlington, Texas.
- Notable playoff and primetime matchups in the 2010s and 2020s have also added intensity to this clash, with Rodgers and now Love carving up Dallas defenses.
Current Form & Momentum
- The Green Bay Packers: The team enters week 4 at 2-1. We’ve been impressed with their efficient offense and opportunistic defense. However, the team still has struggles with its offensive line health.
- The Dallas Cowboys: The team is down at 1-2, and the QB play inconsistencies from Dak Prescott aren’t exactly reassuring, especially now that the team will miss its WR1, CeeDee Lamb. Micah Parsons’s move also leaves a vacuum and a shaky defensive identity.
- Both teams will use this game as their measuring stick, bringing intensity into the matchup. For the Packers, it is an opportunity to prove their elite status. The Cowboys, on the other hand, will hope to save their season from an early slip by winning this game
Key Factors & Why It Matters
| Factors | Why it Matters | Packers Edge | Cowboys Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
Packers Passing Attack vs Cowboys Secondary | Dallas has given up multiple explosive plays this year. | Jordan Love’s deep ball & young WRs are thriving. | The team will have an edge if CB Trevon Diggs forces turnovers. |
Cowboys Offensive Weapons | Lamb is ruled out, and Dallas must rely on Brandin Cooks & RB Tony Pollard. | Green Bay can stack the box & play tight coverage. | Cooks can stretch the field, and Pollard excels in the screen game. |
Micah Parsons Factor | There is an emotional revenge angle with an inside knowledge of the Cowboys’ O. | Parsons adds pass-rush disruption for Green Bay. | Dallas knows his tendencies and could counteract them. |
Offensive Line Play | The Packers are banged up, while Dallas’ pass rush is still dangerous. | A quick passing game neutralizes pressure. | It could be Prescott’s chance if the Packers collapse under pressure. |
Game Script / Pace | If the Packers jump early, Dallas will be forced to go pass-heavy. | GB thrives off turnovers in obvious passing downs. | If Dallas slows the game down, clock control helps keep it close. |
Statistical/Analytical Angles
- Projected Team Totals: Packers 27.5, Cowboys 20.0
- Spread Trends: The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Dallas. On the other hand, the Cowboys are 1-5 in their last 6 overall.
- Over/Under Trends: 3 of the last 4 meetings have gone under 47.5.
- Turnover Battle: The Packers have a +4 differential through 3 games, while the Cowboys are at -2.
- Red Zone Efficiency: GB scoring is on 65% of red zone trips. For DAL, it’s just 41%.
- Public Betting: ~70% of tickets are on Packers −7, though early sharp money hit Cowboys +7.
Weakness & Counterpoints
- Dallas’s remaining pass rush talent can magnify the Packers’ O-line issues.
- The Green Bay Packers are heavily favored. However, their road games in AT&T Stadium can be volatile.
- Dak Prescott is inconsistent, but still has weapons in Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson.
- Then, we have the emotional factor, which could rally the Cowboys’ defense early before the depth wears thin.
Best Bets With Detailed Insights
1. Packers -7 (-105), Confidence – 7.5
- Why we like it: The Green Bay Packers are the sharper, healthier, and more consistent team. Dallas, on the other hand, plays without its top receiver (CeeDee Lamb). It has also struggled to sustain drives, and without Parsons anchoring the defense, the team lacks the bite in the pass rush. The secondary will have much to do, as it has already given up multiple big plays this season.
- Supporting trend: The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against Dallas. They’ve also been one of the league’s most efficient red zone offenses (65% TD rate against Dallas’ 41%).
- Game script: You can expect Green Bay to build an early lead. This lead will likely force Dak into a pass-heavy script—a scenario where the Cowboys tend to unravel with turnovers. That sets up perfectly for a 7-10 point cover.
2. Over 47.5 (-105), Confidence 6/10
- Why we lean over: Both teams have offensive weapons, and while Dallas’ offense is weakened, garbage-time points count just the same. Green Bay has hit 27+ in each of its first 3 games. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have yet to show their capability of holding up for four quarters.
- Historical note: 3 of the last 4 Packers vs. Cowboys games have gone over this number. The matchup also often produces big momentum swings and explosive plays.
- Risk factor: The game could skew under if Green Bay’s O-line injuries stall drives. For that, we keep our confidence moderate.
3. Josh Jacobs Over 13.5 Receiving Yards, Confidence 6.5/10
- Why we like it: The Dallas Cowboys have given up plenty of yardage to RBs in the passing game. That often leaves the flat and short middle open when they overcommit to rushing the QB. Jacobs has also been steadily integrated as a checkdown option, especially with Green Bay’s O-line banged up.
- Projection: The game flow will likely force 3-5 targets Jacob’s way, and at his career average (7.8 yards per catch), just 2 receptions clear this line.
4. Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing TDs, Confidence 7/10
- Why we like it: Love has been efficient in the red zone and has already shown impressive chemistry with his young WR corps. Dallas’ defense, without Parsons, on the other hand, has struggled to get pressure consistently. This has given QBs time to find openings.
- Supporting data: Dallas has allowed at least 2 passing TDs in back-to-back games, and Green Bay is scoring 2.7 passing TDs per game this year.
- Angle: With Jacobs handling short-yardage receiving work, Love should capitalize in the red zone through the air.
5. Same Game Parlay (High Risk) – Packers -6.5 + Love 2+ TDs + Jacobs Over 13.5 Rec Yards – Confidence 4.5/10
- Why we like it: This bet ties together the game script we expect, which is that the Packers cover, Love throws multiple TDs, and Jacobs chips in as a safety valve.
- Payout value: It is a higher-risk parlay, but it reflects the most logical flow of the matchup
- Note for bettors: Only sprinkle here. Treat the betting angle as a fun ladder play, not as your core bet.
Pre-Game Checklist
- Final injury report: Confirm the Packers’ O-line status. For Lamb, he will have to sit this one out.
- Weather: The game will be controlled indoors. Hence, the weather has no impact.
- Line movement: If the spread crosses to -7.5 or -8, then the value will decrease on the Packers.
- Lastly, monitor sharp action on total late Sunday.
Green Bay Should Control This Game from Start to Finish
The Packers’ passing attack against a weakened Dallas defense will make the primary difference in this game. With Lamb out, the Cowboys’ offense will lack explosiveness.
We expect the Green Bay Packers to dictate the game script early and control the second half. Hence, our best bets are Packers -7, Over 47.5 lean, and Jacobs receiving prop.
Final Score Prediction: Packers 30 – Cowboys 20
