Indiana Pacers vs. OKC Thunder Game 5 Prediction & Top Bets (June 16, 2025)
Our heads are spinning from all of the back-and-forth in the NBA Finals. Game 5 is going back to Oklahoma City for Monday’s game, and the series is now tied 2-2 after four alternating battles.
The Thunder pulled out a 111-104 win on Friday to tie it up, which only reinforced the seesaw pattern of victories. Oklahoma City has gone 9-2 at home during the playoff run, and Indiana has posted a solid 7-3 mark on the road.
OKC is now the favorite to win the whole thing by a healthy margin of 9.5. Can they do it? Will the Pacers prove everyone wrong and take the lead? We have a lot of thoughts, and you can find them below, along with a series recap, betting odds, trends, our best bets, and final score prediction!
Game Details
- Matchup: Indiana Pacers vs. OKC Thunder
- Series Status: Tied 2-2
- Date & Time: Monday, June 16, at 8:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- Broadcast: ABC
- Streaming: Sling, DirecTV Stream, Hulu + Live TV, YouTube TV, and Fubo
Prediction Breakdown
38.7%
61.3%
According to GamblingSite.com
Series So Far – What’s Changed
The Finals are tied 2–2, and each team has won every other game so far. Every matchup has come down to certain adjustments: late-game decisions, defensive pressure, or bench scoring. Here’s a recap of the first four:
- Game 1 went to Indiana after Haliburton buried a step-back over Lu Dort in the final seconds.
- Game 2 shifted toward Oklahoma City, which forced 17 turnovers, controlled the boards, and pulled away for a 16-point win.
- Game 3 was really close until the closing stretch. The Pacers outscored OKC 13–6 in the final five minutes, with McConnell and Jackson making key plays off the bench.
- Game 4 went back to the Thunder, who used a 12–2 third-quarter run to create separation. Shai led with 26 points, and OKC held the lead the rest of the way in a 111–104 win.
Game Flow & Prediction
Oklahoma City will likely push the pace from the ball drop by getting downhill in transition, attacking off misses, and trying to disrupt Indiana’s defensive shape before it’s in place. That’s been their go-to at home all postseason. The Pacers usually slow things down as the game goes on, favoring controlled possessions and letting Haliburton or McConnell dictate tempo in the halfcourt.
The first half should stay close; both teams will trade short runs. OKC has consistently pulled ahead in the third quarter throughout the series, using that window to shift the momentum. But if Indiana keeps it close heading into the fourth? They’ve been way more composed in those final minutes with quality looks, managing the clock, and forcing defensive stops when it counts.
Betting Odds & Prop Trends
Want to throw down some cash on Game 5? Look below for the latest odds, lines, and prop bets via DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Pacers | +9.5 (-112) | +310 | Over 223.5 (-110) |
Thunder | -9.5 (-108) | -395 | Under 223.5 (-110) |
Prop Bets
- Shai Gilgeous‑Alexander Over 24.5 Points: SGA’s averaged over 32 at home this series and tied Wilt Chamberlain’s home playoff streak with 30+ in nine straight games. This line is really well-supported!
- Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 Rebounds: Holmgren is looking at fatigue risk, and while he’s grabbing ~7–9 per game, he’s more likely to hover just under 8.5 in this bounce-back spot.
- Isaiah Hartenstein Under 7.5 Points: He’s been limited offensively in rotation, concentrating instead on screens, rebounds, and spacing, and that keeps his scoring on the low end.
Our Best Bets for Game 5 – Pacers vs. Thunder
What are we looking at wager-wise? Below are our picks for the four best bets!
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 28.5 Points: SGA has cleared 30 points in three of the four Finals games and continues to take over in the fourth, especially at Paycom Center, where his usage ticks up. Indiana hasn’t found a good answer defensively; Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard have rotated on him, but neither has slowed him down in isolation.
- Trend: Averaging 31.2 PPG in the Finals
- Confidence Rating: 9/10
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists: The Pacers’ offense runs right through him, period. When the game is close, Haliburton gets into his groove as a facilitator. He’s hit double-digit assists in three of the four games so far.
- Trend: 10.3 APG across the Finals
- Confidence Rating: 8/10
- Chet Holmgren Under 8.5 Rebounds: Holmgren’s rebounding has dropped when Indiana pulls him away from the paint with stretch bigs and cuts from the weak side. Foul trouble has also kept his minutes in check, which makes it harder to clear this number unless he plays a flawless game.
- Trend: Rebound totals: 7, 6, 9, and 5 (Games 1–4)
- Confidence Rating: 7/10
- Pacers +9.5 (Spread): Indiana has covered this number in three of four games and continues to hang around, even when the offense is stagnant. OKC has had a lot of trouble covering big spreads at home, and Indiana’s late-game scoring keeps things close more often than not.
- Trend: Thunder are 2–6 ATS at home in the 2025 playoffs
- Confidence Rating: 8.5/10
Can the Thunder Defend Home Court? Here’s Our Call
The Finals are back at the Paycom Center and tied at 2–2. Every game has come down to late possessions, and neither team holds momentum for long. Game 5 gives OKC a chance to change the series, but Indiana has shown us that they can hold up when they’re on the road.
We’re backing SGA Over 28.5 points. Why? Because he’s been the best scorer in the series and continues to get high-percentage looks when it counts. Haliburton Over 9.5 assists also stays on the board. His usage hasn’t dropped, and the ball goes through him every time Indiana settles into a halfcourt set.
The number we (and everyone else) like the most is Pacers +9.5. They’ve covered this line in three of four games and have kept things close even when the offense stalls. Oklahoma City might take the win, but the margin projects to stay inside double digits unless one side completely falls apart.
If you’re targeting any of the bets above, move early in the day! Props and spreads have changed closer to tip-off in every game this series, and if you wait, it usually means worse numbers!
Our Final Score Prediction: Thunder 112 – Pacers 107
Oklahoma City comes out on top in a close finish at home, but Indiana covers the spread. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton will both put up strong numbers, and the game will probably be decided in the final minutes of the fourth quarter!
