Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Game 5 Prediction (May 29, 2025)
Tyrese Haliburton put on a historic performance in Game 4, finishing with 32 points, 15 assists, 12 rebounds, and zero turnovers in Indiana’s 130-121 win over New York. The Pacers are now up 3-1 in the series; they’re one win away from their first trip to the NBA Finals since 2000.
Haliburton’s second career playoff triple-double was the first in NBA postseason history with at least 30 points, 15 assists, and 10 boards without a turnover. Siakam added 30, and Obi Toppin hit a late three to seal it. Game 5 shifts back to Madison Square Garden on Thursday, where the Knicks will try to prolong their season.
New York did have some moments—Brunson scored 31, Towns added 24 and 12, and Anunoby chipped in 22—but they couldn’t erase a double-digit hole. Indiana hasn’t dropped two straight since early March, and they’ve now held serve at home for the first time in the series.
Will the Pacers get there? We have some thoughts!
Game Overview
- Matchup: Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks
- Series Status: IND lead 3-1
- Date & Time: Thursday, May 29, at 8:00 pm ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- Broadcast: TNT, truTV, and MAX
Prediction Breakdown
51.1%
48.9%
According to GamblingSite.com
Team Performance Recap
The Pacers played like they had a purpose in Game 4. New York? They didn’t.
Indiana Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton was the star in Game 4. He ended up with 32 points, 15 assists, 10 rebounds, and no turnovers, a rare combo in a postseason game indeed. He picked his spots, moved the ball with purpose, and kept New York from ever getting settled defensively.
Pascal Siakam added 30 and gave the Pacers a steady scoring option in the half-court. He was decisive when he was matched up against slower defenders and stayed active off the ball while Haliburton was running the offense.
Indiana hasn’t strayed far from its identity: early offense, smart movement, and balanced shot selection. They’ve forced the Knicks into uncomfortable rotations and have taken full advantage when the defense gets out of position.
New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson scored 31, but the Knicks lacked any kind of rhythm; too much isolation, not enough movement, and long stretches without consistent shot quality. Indiana’s defense has been solid, but they’ve taken away New York’s first looks and disrupted their spacing.
Karl-Anthony Towns added 24 points and 12 rebounds. He’s continued to produce, but the offense hasn’t created a lot of space for him to work. Touches have been sporadic, and he’s had to generate way too much on his own.
Defensively, New York hasn’t rotated well. Miscommunication on switches and poor coverage at the point of attack have left shooters open and allowed the Pacers to stay in control. And that’s where the game slipped in the second half.
Matchups to Watch
Who are we watching in Game 5? Three battles: at the point, in the paint, and during second-unit stretches.
Point Guard Duel: Jalen Brunson vs. Tyrese Haliburton
Haliburton is coming off an insane Game 4 performance. He’s been in control, creating quality looks early in possessions and keeping New York in rotation. Brunson is still the Knicks’ primary scorer, but he’s under a ton of pressure and hasn’t gotten a lot of looks. If that trend holds? It limits New York’s options in late-game situations.
Frontcourt Matchup: Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Myles Turner
Towns keeps scoring, but Turner has made it tough for him to do it. He’s contested shots at the rim, held position in the post, and helped Indiana stay in control without extra help. Towns can still change a game when he’s getting touches, but Indiana pushing him out of his comfort spots is a good move.
Bench Factor: Benedict Mathurin
Mathurin showed what he can do in Game 4. His off-ball movement and energy opened up lanes, and he hit shots when the Pacers needed a bump. If he brings that energy in Game 5? It puts more pressure on a Knicks bench that hasn’t had much influence on the series up to this point.
Stats Insights
The stats so far say it all about the Games 1-4:
- Pace of Play: Indiana isn’t wasting any time. They’re averaging about 15 seconds per possession in the playoffs, and that tempo has forced New York into mismatches and late rotations. It also limits the Knicks’ ability to slow the game down and get control of the pace.
- Scoring Trends: Both have cleared 120 points more than once in the series; quick possessions and aggressive shot selection on both sides, and there has not been a lot of resistance when the offenses are clicking. It’s less about half-court sets and more about which team is creating the cleaner looks early in the shot clock.
- Turnover Battle: New York’s losses have followed a familiar pattern: too many empty possessions. Rushed entries, miscommunication, or over-dribbling have given Indiana extra chances, and the Pacers jumped on all of them. Cleaning that up has to be the priority going into Game 5.
Betting Odds & Lines
If you’re betting on Game 5, look below for the latest odds and lines via ESPN BET:
- Spread: Knicks favored by 4.5 points
- Total Points (Over/Under): 222.5
- Moneyline: Knicks -195, Pacers +165
Best Bets
Here’s where we think the value is in Game 4!
- Over 222.5 Total Points – The line’s gone up for a good reason! Neither team has shown very much resistance in transition, and both coaches have relied on quicker lineups. Unless one side runs cold from deep, this total is still a fair spot to hit the over.
- Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists -He’s reading the floor almost too well, and New York has been really slow on help and recovery. Haliburton hasn’t forced anything; he’s just finding the open man when the defense shifts. With shooters spacing well and Siakam getting touches near the rim, this number is beatable.
- Karl-Anthony Towns Over 20.5 Points – The touches have been there, even when the Knicks’ offense stalls out. Towns has cleared this total in three out of four games, and because New York needs scoring from someone other than Brunson, he’ll probably get the volume again in the mid-post and on second chances.
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Game 5 Wrap-Up & Prediction
If the Knicks want a fighting chance to extend the series, they need to be better defensively and take care of the ball. Indiana has turned all of their mistakes into points, and New York hasn’t found a way to slow the game down when it happens.
The Pacers don’t have to change anything at this point—they’re playing perfect bball. Haliburton has controlled the tempo, their spacing has held up, and their bench gave them a nice boost in Game 4. If they keep moving the ball and stay active off the dribble, they’ll have a lot of chances to close it out.
Final Score Prediction: Pacers 116, Knicks 111
Indiana finishes 4–1 and heads to the finals
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