Oilers vs. Stars Game 1 Betting Prediction (May 21, 2025)

And here we go again, hockey fans! The Stanley Cup is calling, and the Oilers and Stars meet in the Western Conference Final for the second year in a row. If you think that Dallas has forgotten how that one ended? Nah, not a chance. Edmonton sent them home in six last time. But the Stars are back and looking like a stable team; they have home-ice advantage, and a goaltender who’s been unstoppable all season.

But the Oilers aren’t rookies. This is their third time in the Conference Final in four seasons, and they’re coming in with the kind of scoring talent that doesn’t need a lot of space to turn the tide of a game. Game 1 should tell us plenty, especially about which squad is better equipped to deal with the pressure right out of the gate!

Game Details

• Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars
• Series Status: Game 1 of the Western Conference Final
• Date & Time: Wednesday, May 21, at 8:00 pm ET
• Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
• Broadcast: ESPN, ESPN+

Storylines to Watch

There’s history between Edmonton and Dallas, so they know who they’re playing against and how they play.

• 2024 Payback Opportunity: The Oilers ended Dallas’s run in six games in last year’s Western Conference Final. That series hangs over their heads, especially for a Stars team that thinks it could have ended differently.
• Dallas’s Consistency in the West: This is their third straight trip to the conference final. They’ve built the team around structure and patience, and they’re hoping that their hard-earned experience will finally turn into something substantial.
• Edmonton’s Long Window: The Oilers are back again (third trip in four years), and the core that was once labeled as one of the most promising is expected to come through. Their offensive ceiling remains as high as anyone’s.

Team Matchup

Dallas outplayed Colorado with smart positioning, timely scoring, and steady goaltending. Edmonton made it through Vancouver by adapting on the fly, eking it out in close games, and capitalizing when the space opened up.

Edmonton Oilers

Draisaitl is one of the most reliable scorers on a team that’s loaded with weapons. McDavid draws the coverage, but Draisaitl’s finishing and decision-making have been clutch in close games. The Oilers still have question marks in the net, which puts even more pressure on their offense to deliver early and on the reg.

Dallas Stars

Dallas has a ton of discipline and structure when they skate. They don’t have to have the puck all of the game; they just make less mistakes with it. Oettinger’s performance has been a huge stabilizer, and their scoring has come from a variety of lines, so one player doesn’t have to carry the entire load.

Key Matchups

Game 1 will come down to the execution of the details. The following is where the spotlight should land going into the opener:

• Connor McDavid vs. Dallas Defensive Core: McDavid’s uncanny ability to create space and speed past coverage puts pressure on any system. Dallas plays a composed, position-first style, but containing McDavid takes near-perfect shifts. Heiskanen and Lindell will likely see extended minutes during the game.
• Goaltending: Oettinger vs. Skinner/Pickard: Dallas knows what it’s getting with Oettinger, and that’s controlled, precise movement, squeaky clean rebound control, and confidence under pressure. Edmonton’s net is still a little unsure. Skinner and Pickard have had decent moments, but neither has put together a stretch that has gained full trust. If it turns into a low-scoring game, goaltending could be the separator.
• Special Teams: Each club has a strong power play, but the penalty kill might end up being the bigger story. Dallas has been more dependable when they’re shorthanded, and any lapses here could change things in an instant.

Best Bets

Let’s see what the best bets for Game 1 are! Here are the latest odds and lines via FanDuel Sportsbook:

Betting Lines (as of May 20)

Moneyline

• Dallas Stars -125: They’ve been way cleaner defensively, and their goalie situation is just better. At home, that kind of stability is super important.
• Edmonton Oilers +105: Backing Edmonton here means that you’re betting on pure talent to overcome shaky goaltending and a deeper Dallas lineup.

Total Goals Over/Under

• Over 5.5 Goals -135: This has the potential to open up quickly. There is solid finishing talent on both teams, and questions in Edmonton’s crease, so the over has some legs under it.
• Under 5.5 Goals +120: If Oettinger keeps things chill and Dallas plays its usual disciplined game? This number might very well hold.

Puck Line

• Oilers +1.5 (-250): If you’re liking Edmonton but don’t love the moneyline, this keeps the window wider. Their top-end scoring usually keeps it within reach.
• Stars -1.5 (+185): It’s definitely a riskier number, but if Dallas controls the pace and limits their rush chances, a two-goal win isn’t totally out of the question.

Player Prop

• Leon Draisaitl to Score Anytime +130: No two ways about it, Draisaitl is a matchup problem, plain and simple. If Edmonton finds the net, there’s a strong chance it comes off his stick.

Watch the Series Preview

Want a comprehensive breakdown of the series? You can watch this video preview from The Hockey Guy (yes, that’s his name on YouTube:

Final Whistle: Who Sets the Tone?

Final Prediction for Game 1

– Score Prediction: Dallas Stars 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
– Best Bet: Over 5.5 goals

Why: Dallas gets the benefit of playing at home and has the stronger goalie. Edmonton’s top line has the skill to change the pace, so it could turn into a game where even the smallest mistakes matter. We expect to see a close score and goals from both teams.

Dallas sure remembers how last year ended, and Edmonton knows what’s coming. Everything else? It starts in Game 1!