Oilers vs. Panthers Game 4 Prediction & Preview (June 12, 2025)
So. Many. Penalties. Game 3 of the Stanley Cup Finals was a hot mess for the Oilers, who got absolutely hammered by Florida. The final score? 6-1.
It was a dirty, physical game, and that’s how Florida likes it. They got under the Oilers’ skin; Stuart Skinner whipped a puck over the glass. Jake Walman hosed down the Panthers’ bench with his water bottle for some reason and threw some punches. And Evander Kane racked up a misconduct penalty for whacking Verhaeghe right in the face on the ice.
One of the refs was partly responsible for a big momentum shift in a pivotal moment of the game; Francis Charron caused a turnover to the Panthers.
What happened? Florida forward Aleksander Barkov slashed and then arm grabbed Edmonton’s defenseman Klingberg, who barreled into the ref because he didn’t clear the area. The puck went to Sam Reinhart, he scored, and then it was 3-1.
It went downhill for the Oilers after that. Edmonton had 85 penalty minutes. 85! They scored another two, and Evan Rodriguez clapped in the sixth goal for Florida. The Cats are now up 2-1 in the series.
Game 4 is next. Will the Oilers tie it up or will the Panthers take another W? Keep scrolling to see what we think, the odds, and our best bets!
Game Details: Oilers vs. Panthers – Game 4
- Matchup: Edmonton Oilers vs. Florida Panthers
- Series Status: – FLA leads 2 – 1
- Date & Time: Thursday, June 12, at 8:00 pm ET.
- Location: Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, Florida
- TV Broadcast (US): TNT, truTV
- Streaming (US): Max
- TV Broadcast (Canada): CBC, TVA Sports
Prediction Breakdown
47.9%
52.1%
According to GamblingSite.com
What’s at Stake in Game 4?
Florida can grab a 3–1 series lead and set itself up for a potential Cup win at home. Edmonton needs this game so that they aren’t in a 3–1 hole when they go back to Sunrise.
For the Edmonton Oilers
- Even the series. They need this win to make it 2–2 and stay within reach before the series returns to Florida.
- Power play problems. They’ve gone 0-for-10 so far, which is unacceptable for a team that’s built around elite man-advantage talent.
- Defensive breakdowns. Poor coverage and bad neutral zone decisions have cost them; Florida has too many clean looks.
- The top players need to start producing. McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t scored in the Final, and that has to change if they want a win.
- Goaltending hole. Skinner hasn’t come close to matching Bobrovsky. If that doesn’t change in Game 4? It’s not looking good for Edmonton.
For the Florida Panthers
- Push it to 3–1. A win puts them one step closer to closing it out, and they’ll have two chances left and home ice waiting for them.
- Keep the pressure on. Their forecheck has disrupted Edmonton’s zone exits and forced constant turnovers.
- Bobrovsky advantage. He’s been a rock all series; he’s kept the Oilers off the board and their big guns can’t get much past him.
- Stay disciplined. Edmonton’s power play hasn’t scored, but Florida shouldn’t take any chances for them to remedy this.
- Stick with what’s working. Physical play, layered support, and tight neutral zone play have all moved the series toward Florida.
Key Factors for Game 4 Success
Florida has a chance to take full control of the series. Edmonton needs this game to pull even before it goes back to Sunrise. Below is what will matter!
Sergei Bobrovsky has been the better goalie in all three games. He stopped 32 shots in Game 3 and has controlled rebounds, angles, and pace that’s head and shoulders above Stuart Skinner, who was pulled after giving up five goals. Skinner doesn’t have to be perfect, but he can’t be the second-best goalie on the ice again.
Florida’s penalty kill gets the job done; they’ve shut down Edmonton’s power play all three games. The Oilers haven’t converted on any of their 10 opportunities, despite relying on a unit that was dominant earlier in the playoffs. If that advantage doesn’t tilt back toward Edmonton, they won’t be able to keep up at 5-on-5.
McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t scored in this series, which is nuts. Florida’s top players haven’t lit it up either, but the Panthers don’t need them to. Their depth has done the hard work; Sam Bennett, Carter Verhaeghe, and others have clapped in goals and made Edmonton chase. If the Oilers’ stars skate scared, there’s no backup plan.
Edmonton played like they had no discipline; they took way too many penalties. The Panthers were aggressive, but they didn’t cross the line. Edmonton has to find the balance between hitting and staying out of the box, or they’ll keep feeding Florida momentum.
Florida hasn’t lost at home in this Final, and their crowd has been a real factor. Chants for Bobrovsky and energy from the opening puck drop have fed the Panthers’ aggressive style. Edmonton needs to take the crowd out of the game early and find a way to control the pace. If not? They’ll continue to skate uphill.
Betting Odds & Trends
Look below for the betting odds and likes courtesy of ESPN BET (as of June 11).
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Oilers | +1.5 (-200) | +125 | Over 6.5 (+105) |
Panthers | -1.5 (+165) | -145 | Under 6.5 (-125) |
Betting Trends
- Game 3 winners in 1–1 Cup Final series go on to win the Cup about 66% of the time. That historical edge belongs to Florida now, but it’s far from a done deal.
- Edmonton hasn’t covered the puck line as frequently as claimed. There’s no credible data backing the 15-of-16 stat, though they’ve kept most playoff games close and regularly covered +1.5 earlier in the postseason.
- The Oilers’ power play has dried up. After leading the league earlier in the playoffs, Edmonton is 0-for-10 with the man advantage through three games in the Final.
- Florida continues to dominate at home. The Panthers are 7-2 at home this postseason and have won both games in Sunrise during this series, keeping opponents under 3 goals in all but one of those home wins.
Our Best Bets for Stanley Cup Game 4
Who and what are we looking at for our best bets? Here are our four picks for Game 4!
- Moneyline: Panthers -150 | Florida is really strong at home; 7‑2 in the playoffs, as evidenced by the 6–1 win in Game 3. Bobrovsky has been the better goalie through all three games.
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-200) | Edmonton has stayed close in most playoff games and usually covers +1.5; they’ve done it 12 of 14 times. If they tighten up defensively and stop with the penalties, this is a safer bet than the moneyline.
- Total Goals: Under 6.5 (-120) | Two of the first three games finished under this number, and Game 3 only went over because the Oilers had so many penalties.
- Player Prop: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-102) | He’s averaging about 3.8 shots per game in the playoffs. Edmonton needs production from him, so volume should stay high even if the goals don’t.
Stanley Cup Showdown: Our Game 4 Verdict
Florida’s been better at finishing chances, better in their own end, and has the better goalie. It’s that simple.
The Oilers still don’t have a power play goal in this series. McDavid and Draisaitl haven’t scored. Skinner has been outplayed. If this keeps up? Florida walks out of Game 4 with a 3–1 lead and two chances to close.
Our Final Score Prediction: Florida Panthers 3, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three games in, this series has been fast, nasty, and unforgiving. Game 4 won’t be any different. We are backing the Panthers; we just can’t see the Oilers recovering after how Game 3 went down.
If you’re ready to put our prediction to the test or have one of your own, head over to one of the top-rated betting apps to place your wagers.
