Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 7 Preview and Prediction (May 18, 2025)

We’re six games in, and this series has been all over the place. Oklahoma City has shown they have more depth. Denver has the best player. That’s the tradeoff heading into Game 7. The Thunder are at home, where they’ve been almost impossible to beat. The Nuggets have been through this before, but they’ve got Jokić, and that gives them a chance no matter what the scoreboard says.

Game 7 will be decided by execution. Who protects the ball, who gets stops without fouling, and who makes the right decisions when the legs start to give out? It won’t be pretty, but it will be good basketball. One team will move on, and one is headed home.

Game Details

• Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Series Status: Tied 3-3
• Date & Time: Sunday, May 18, 2025, at 3:30 pm EST
• Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
• Broadcast: ABC / ESPN

Series Recap

Like we said, there hasn’t been a reliable pattern in this series—it’s basically been adjustments and counterpunches! Look below for a recap of the first six games:

• Game 1: Denver opened strong, stealing one on the road 121–119 behind a monster 42-point, 22-rebound effort from Jokić.
• Game 2: Oklahoma City responded with a 149–106 blowout. SGA led the way with 34, and the Thunder bench completely overwhelmed Denver.
• Game 3: The Nuggets got a 112–110 OT win on their home floor, with Murray putting up 27 and Jokić ending it late.
• Game 4: Thunder took a low-scoring scrap 92–87 to tie the series, relying on defense and SGA’s 25 points.
• Game 5: Thunder pulled ahead 3–2, getting a 112–105 win. SGA had 31, but Jokić almost matched it with 44 and 15.
• Game 6: Denver evened it back up with a 119–107 win. Jokić posted 29, 14, and 8, and the rest of the roster finally showed some signs of life.

Key Players to Watch

If you’ve been watching, then you know who’s carrying the load. And this game is going to hinge on how much these two can handle—and what everyone around them contributes to the effort.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC): He’s been the calm in the middle of the storm. SGA’s averaging 28.4 points, 6.7 assists, and 6.6 boards through the playoffs. He’s dictated the tempo and picked his spots. Game 7 needs more of that, and he’ll likely have to hit a couple of tough ones late.
• Nikola Jokić (DEN): The numbers say it all—29.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 10.2 assists per game in this series. He’s literally carried Denver through stretches where everything else has fallen apart. The ball is going through him, as it should. The question is whether OKC can make him work for every touch.

Game 7s are sometimes decided by the players who aren’t on the marquee. Watch for the following players:

Oklahoma City Thunder

Denver Nuggets

Betting Odds

As for betting odds, here is where the numbers are leading up to Game 7, courtesy of BetMGM Sports:

The sportsbooks are backing the Thunder’s home record and Denver’s reliance on one man to do a whole lot, and that chasm in depth is baked into the number. Remember to check the latest odds, as they are subject to change!

Best Bets for Game 7

Oddsmakers tend to keep Game 7 lines conservative, and this matchup shows that—but there are still some smart bets that are up for grabs!

• Thunder -7.5: OKC’s been dependable at home all season long. They’ve covered big numbers against good teams, and when their defense forces turnovers, the game gets away quickly. If they start out fast, Denver’s going to have to fight hard just to keep it close.
• Over 213 Total Points: The last two games both went over this number. If Jokić is going to touch the ball every trip, and SGA keeps getting to his spots, it doesn’t need to be a shootout to clear 213.
• Jokić Over 29.5 Points: He’s cleared this number in four of six games. Volume isn’t the issue—it’s if he gets the help he needs. Expect 20+ field goal attempts and a long night on the floor. Unless OKC runs away with it early? Jokić will get there.

Thunder or Nuggets? Our Final Call for Game 7

Everything up until this point has been pretty even—three wins apiece, two stars doing most of the work, and both teams showing they can respond under pressure. But someone’s moving on, and someone’s packing it up.

Below are the deciding factors heading into Game 7:

• Oklahoma City’s Home Floor Has Been a Factor All Year: The Thunder went 35–6 at home in the regular season. That’s not nothing! It is structure, focus, and crowd energy that feeds into how they defend. They play faster, cleaner, and more decisively at Paycom Center.
• Jokić Keeps Denver in Range: There’s no one else in the league that’s quite like him. He’s always efficient, patient, and borderline unguardable. If the game slows down or gets physical, Denver will keep passing to him until OKC forces the ball out of his hands.
• SGA’s Job Is to Finish: He’s run the show and gotten his team through every round of pressure, and Game 7 will be a test for him once again. He can always put up 35, but can he manage the game when it’s close, and make the right read in the last four minutes? That’ll decide if his team moves on.

Our Final Prediction: Thunder 114, Nuggets 106

Jokić is going to put up numbers. That’s just a given. But he’s not getting consistent help, and Denver hasn’t found a way to take OKC out of what they do best. Oklahoma City has more players contributing on both ends, and their defensive pressure has forced Denver’s role players into rushed decisions all series long.

SGA doesn’t have to totally take over; he just has to manage the last six minutes. If he does, and OKC avoids the usual Game 7 jitters? They should finish this up at home.

Ready to get in on the action? Place your Game 7 bets now with one of our recommended betting sites!