Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 5 Prediction & Best Bets (May 13, 2025)
After a really hard-fought Game 4 in Denver, the series is all tied up at 2–2, and Oklahoma City is going back to its home court with a chance to get back control. The Thunder clamped down defensively, holding the Nuggets to 31% shooting and closing the game with a 14–3 run. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led with 25 points, but it was the bench dynamic duo of Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins that gave them the juice that they needed, scoring and defending with a sense of purpose in the fourth.
Denver couldn’t get anything going late. Jokic had 27 points and 13 rebounds, but his 7-for-22 shooting and only three assists showed just how disruptive OKC’s defense really was. The Nuggets missed all 13 of their first-half three-point attempts and looked like they were out of sync from the jump.
Game 5 is in Paycom Center—where the Thunder went 37–4 during the regular season—Oklahoma City has the opportunity to put Denver in a really tough spot going into the home stretch.
Quick Take
- The series is tied at 2–2 after the Thunder locked up Game 4 with a strong finish at home.
- Oklahoma City ended the game on a 12–0 run, with big defensive stops and timely buckets from their second unit.
- Denver couldn’t get any clean looks late in the game and had trouble responding as the pressure ramped up.
- Game 5 goes to Oklahoma City, where the OKC went 37–4 in the regular NBA season.
- The Nuggets have the playoff résumé, but OKC’s energy and depth? They’re now a serious problem.
Prediction Breakdown
39.6%
60.4%
According to GamblingSite.com
Game Details
Wanna watch the game? The deets are below:
- Matchup: Denver Nuggets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Series Status: Tied 2-2
- Date & Time: Tuesday, May 13, at 9:30 pm ET
- Location: Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK
- Broadcast: TNT
Series Snapshot
The series has gone back and forth. There were blowouts, a nail-biter in OT, and a defensive takeover late in Game 4. Neither team has won back-to-back, and both squads have found and exposed the other’s weak spots. Below is how it’s gone down:
- Series Status: Tied 2-2
- Game 1: Nuggets 121-119
- Game 2: Thunder 149-106
- Game 3: Nuggets 113-104 (OT)
- Game 4: Thunder 92-87
Betting Odds
What do the lines look like going into Game 5? According to DraftKings. OKC has a solid bump at home, and the total shows the more recent defensive direction:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | +10 (-108) | +350 | Over 229.5 (-110) |
Thunder | -10 (-112) | -455 | Under 229.5 (-110) |
Betting Lines (as of May 11)
- Spread: Thunder -6.5
- Moneyline: Thunder -245 | Nuggets +199
- Over/Under: 227 points
FYI: Lines could move before tip-off, so always double-check with your sportsbook for the latest numbers!
Game Analysis
Oklahoma City made plays. Denver didn’t. That’s pretty much the summary of Game 4. The Thunder figured out how to finish. The Nuggets came up short again in the fourth. Below is what both teams showed, and what factors could decide the outcome of Game 5.
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC didn’t shoot well, but they did wear Denver down with strong physical defense and good rotation choices down the stretch.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finished with 25 points and scored nine in the fourth to close it out.
- Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins gave the Thunder a boost off the bench, combining for 22 points and anchoring an 11–0 run in the fourth quarter.
- The Thunder shot 35.6% from the field but held Denver to 31.3% and disrupted Jokic’s passing lanes all game long.
Denver Nuggets
Denver had a lot of trouble getting good looks in Game 4 and just couldn’t keep up with Oklahoma City’s late push.
- Nikola Jokic finished with 27 points and 11 rebounds but shot just 7-for-22 from the field.
- The Nuggets went 0-for-13 from deep in the first half and never got their perimeter shooting on track.
- Denver’s starters played extended minutes in Game 3’s overtime win, and that workload caught up to them late in Game 4.
Best Bets
Here’s where we think the value lies for Game 5 in this series!
- Thunder -6.5 (-110) – Oklahoma City has covered this number in both of their wins, and plays with a different level of confidence at home. Their bench is making a real impact, and their defensive rotations are giving Denver problems.
- Under 227 Total Points (-110) – Game 4 totaled 179, and Game 3 finished at 217 in OT. The shot quality has dipped for both teams, and possessions have definitely slowed down. If this keeps up toward half-court basketball? The under has value.
- Nikola Jokic Under 27.5 Points (-106) – Jokic got 27 in Game 4 but needed 22 shots to get there, and his assist numbers have dropped against OKC’s defense. The Thunder are cutting off passing lanes and forcing him into way more isolation plays.
- Aaron Gordon Over 1.5 Made Threes (+120) – Gordon’s been super steady from deep, hitting at least two threes in all four games of the series. He’s finding open space in the corners, and Denver will need that shooting prowess once again to stretch OKC’s defense.
Key Stats
- Thunder ATS: 56-30-4 this season.
- Nuggets ATS: 43-47-2 this season.
- Thunder Home Record: 37-4 during the regular season.
- Nuggets Road Record: 20-21 during the regular season.
Final Prediction: Who Takes the Edge?
Oklahoma City’s defense has been the most reliable thing in the series, and they’ve been able to handle the late-game pressure way better than Denver throughout the first four games. The Nuggets still have a weapon in Jokic, but their shooters have disappeared too much, and OKC has forced them into tough possessions during the whole series.
Back home, with a hyped-up crowd and a really reliable rotation, the Thunder are in a good place to move out in front.
Our Prediction
– Final Score: Thunder 108, Nuggets 101
– Top Bets: Thunder -6.5, Under 227, Gordon Over 1.5 Threes, Jokic Under 27.5 PointsIt’ll be close, but it’ll be a battle.
As always, gamble responsibly! And if you or someone you know is struggling with a gambling problem, there is help out there—call 1-800-GAMBLER.
