Odds on the Next James Bond – Who Will It Be?
Bond…James Bond. Yes, 007 will be back, but he will look different from the other seven actors who have portrayed Ian Fleming’s dashing, debonair spy.
You could say the casting speculations have “shaken, not stirred” things up among the long-running espionage franchise—there are so many names being tossed about, but what are the odds? Yes, we mean actual betting odds—people will bet on pretty much anything, and who’ll play the next James Bond is no exception.
We have the odds, and in our opinion, they’re wrong. But we aren’t bookmakers, so all we are here to do is tell you the latest odds for the top five candidates and what makes them a good—or not-so-good—choice.
Daniel Craig’s Exit
Before No Time To Die’s script was even penned, the last of Daniel Craig’s stint as Bond, we knew he was retiring his gadgets.
Now, we might be biased, but Craig was the best Bond, full stop. Sure, Sean Connery was good. David Niven was in one movie, so does he even count? Same with George Lazenby and Timothy Dalton (he was in two)—mere Bond blips. Roger Moore was meh. Pierce Brosnan was great, but Daniel Craig was the pinnacle, the apex of 007.
With his startling blue eyes and brooding, moody presence, he took Bond to another level—a darker, more realistic portrayal. And he looked good doing it. That being said, this will be a very tough act to follow, and whoever ends up snagging the role has some big Crockett & Jones ‘Highbury’ shoes to fill.
The James Bond Contenders
Even if you managed to corner a Bond producer, strapped them to a metal table, and threatened to waterboard them, chances are they’d keep their lips sealed. Their commitment to secrecy regarding who gets to play the iconic spy has been unbreakable—and commendable! It’s hard to keep a secret in Hollywood.
Despite this annoying vow of silence, several top contenders have been at the forefront of the rumor mill for years. Idris Elba was once the frontrunner, but he’s removed himself from the speculation more than once—boooo. He’d be an excellent 007. Meanwhile, newcomers James Norton, Rege-Jean Page, and Damson Idris are all gaining traction.
It seems that Aaron Taylor-Johnson is currently leading the pack. For a while now, gossip columns have linked him with stepping into the world of secret service. Last year, The Sun claimed he auditioned for the iconic Bond role behind closed doors. More recently, they’ve suggested he’s actually been offered the part—though you might want to take that news with a grain of salt that’s large enough to coat a margarita rim.
Regardless of the speculation, Taylor-Johnson may not be the obvious choice for the iconic PPK, but remember, neither was Craig back in 2005. Fans initially protested his casting (the issue was his blond hair), and Craig himself attempted to persuade producer Barbara Broccoli to reconsider. This serves as a reminder that sometimes, even an underdog could end up landing the role.
Online betting apps have tightened the race to a field of seven actors, all quoted at odds of +900 or lower, to succeed Daniel Craig as 007. Leading the pack is Aaron Taylor-Johnson at +188, followed closely by heavy hitters like Henry Cavill at +350 and Damson Idris at +450. Read on for the top five actors!
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (+188)
Next year, Taylor-Johnson stars as the titular character in the Marvel Comics adaptation, Kraven the Hunter, having undergone a significant physical transformation for the part, positioning his physique perfectly to step into Craig’s shoes as Bond.
This 33-year-old Brit supposedly impressed during a clandestine audition with producer Barbara Broccoli in September, which was reportedly a huge success. A few months following, he is rumored to have shot the iconic gun barrel teaser, solidifying his status as the leading candidate to don the Tom Ford tuxedo.
Taylor-Johnson first captured attention for his portrayal of John Lennon in the 2009 movie Nowhere Boy. His career reached a new acme in 2016 when he secured a Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actor, thanks to his role as a murderous drifter in Tom Ford’s Nocturnal Animals.
In his more recent projects, he took on the role of Ives, a military leader, in Christopher Nolan’s sci-fi espionage film Tenet and portrayed the assassin Tangerine in David Leitch’s action-packed Bullet Train.
Why Aaron Taylor-Johnson Is a Good Fit
Taylor-Johnson is the complete package. Known for his knack for action, he’s shown he’s cut out for the high-octane world with his performances in the Kick-Ass series, Avengers: Age of Ultron, Godzilla, and Tenet. Beyond the physicality, he’s exceptionally skilled at delivering emotional depth, a talent highlighted in his breakout role as a young John Lennon in Nowhere Boy. It’s said that the Bond producers see this potential in him as well.
Why Aaron Taylor-Johnson May Not Be a Great Fit
At 32, Taylor-Johnson could seem slightly youthful for the traditionally more seasoned and skeptical portrayals of Bond. However, in October 2022, Bond producer Michael G. Wilson mentioned that they were leaning towards casting someone in their “thirties.” Beyond this age consideration, there don’t appear to be many drawbacks to Taylor-Johnson’s candidacy, suggesting the Bond team might feel the same.
Henry Cavill (+350)
Cavill has consistently been a top choice for wearing the iconic Bond tuxedo. But his path seemed to veer away from the role of the super spy when he left The Witcher to return as Superman—a decision that appeared to close the Bond chapter for him.
At 40, the Jersey native announced a comeback as Superman on his Instagram, only to find his plans upended by a reshuffle at Warner Bros. A decision by James Gunn, director and co-chair of DC Studios, to focus on a younger Superman meant Cavill was out of the superhero gig.
This twist now potentially clears the way for the Man of Steel himself to step into Bond’s chukkas, a role Matthew Vaughn, the director of Argylle, believes Cavill is “born to do.”
Why Henry Cavill Is a Good Fit
Picture the quintessential James Bond, and you might as well be describing Henry Cavill. With his strong jawline, broad shoulders, dark hair, and striking blue eyes, he epitomizes the rugged yet suave appearance of the famed spy. Cavill, at the age of 22, nearly clinched the Bond role in 2005, narrowly missing out on Craig in what was essentially a flip of the coin.
Fast forward over a decade, and Cavill has grown not only in age but in stature as both an actor and a man. Could this be his moment? With the tumultuous exit from his Superman role leaving a conspicuous void, the stage seems set for Cavill to step into a franchise destined for him.
Why Henry Cavill May Not Be a Great Fit
Cavill’s prior engagements with major franchises might actually work against him. Despite his striking appearance, being simultaneously recognized as Superman, Geralt from The Witcher, and potentially James Bond seems a stretch. His roles in those franchises, though concluded, will likely stick with him for a considerable time.
Moreover, Cavill’s role as Napoleon Solo in The Man from U.N.C.L.E. might be too close to the Bond persona—strip away Solo’s American accent, and you’re left with a character remarkably similar to Bond, perhaps making him less appealing for the Bond franchise.
Cavill’s age might now be a factor as well. Initially passed over for being too youthful for Casino Royale, at 40, he now might be seen as slightly beyond the preferred age bracket for the new Bond, especially since the producers have indicated a preference for someone in their thirties. Daniel Craig was younger when he took on the role, and the producers’ ambition to “reinvent” Bond suggests they might be looking for a fresh take that Cavill, through no fault of his own, might not represent.
Damson Idris (+450)
Idris captured attention and rave reviews for his stellar performance as the teenage drug dealer Franklin Saint in the U.S. crime series Snowfall. This drama, which explores 1980s Los Angeles over six seasons, marked a breakout in his career.
At 32, this London-born actor took to the silver screen as Hakim in the 2016 British film City of Tiny Lights, featuring Riz Ahmed and Billie Piper, before making his mark on American cinema the following year in Megan Leavey, a film about a U.S. Marine and her service dog.
That same year, Idris was honored with the Emerging Talent Award at the Screen Nation Film and Television Awards, celebrating his burgeoning career, and he’s gearing up for a role opposite Brad Pitt in an upcoming American sports drama directed by Joseph Kosinski.
Why Damson Idris Is a Good Fit
Damson Idris may not be universally recognized yet, but his rapid ascent in the Bond candidate rankings is undeniable. Currently, he’s a frontrunner, thanks in part to his acclaimed roles in Black Mirror and Donald Glover’s Swarm. His combination of good looks, charm, and an air of mystery makes him an almost perfect match for the Bond formula. His upcoming Formula 1 movie for Apple TV+, directed by Joseph Kosinski of Top Gun: Maverick fame, could catapult his status even further. When considering fresh faces for 007, Idris is an exemplary pick.
Why Damson Idris May Not Be a Great Fit
There are very few arguments against Damson Idris taking on the role of Bond. Similar to the dialogue that surrounded Idris Elba for an extended period, the idea of Idris becoming the first Black Bond is bound to face some resistance, an unwelcome challenge that nobody should have to confront unless they choose to. Yet, as discussions progress regarding the essence and representation of Bond, Idris appears to be an ideal fit for 2024 and the years to follow.
James Norton +500
Norton has brushed off speculation that he’s set to become the next British super spy, but that hasn’t stopped the rumors.
In a conversation with Variety magazine about whether he had auditioned or engaged in talks with Bond’s production team, Norton clarified: “No, no, no, none of that. It’s a really lovely piece of clickbait media in the UK, and anyone can write any story about it, and it will get the most incredible sort of hype around it.
“No, no conversations. Basically nothing else to say other than I think they’re probably still working it all out. It’s a big challenge to know which direction to take that huge franchise in. But beyond that, it’s lots of quite fun and bemusing media coverage. There’s nothing concrete behind it.”
Norton made a notable comeback as the deranged Tommy Lee Royce in the critically acclaimed BBC series Happy Valley, earning a Bafta nomination for his role in the show’s first series in 2015.
Now 38 and hailing from London with a North Yorkshire upbringing, Norton has demonstrated his acting range in recent years. He has captivated audiences as a detective vicar in Grantchester and led the cast of McMafia as Alex Godman, portraying the London-based son of a Russian mafia leader.
His portrayal of a con artist posing as an MI5 agent in Rogue Agent, where his character Robert Hendy-Freegard deceives and kidnaps victims for ransom, might also boost his prospects for the Bond role.
Why James Norton Is a Good Fit
In 2016, Norton’s career soared thanks to his standout roles in Happy Valley (as an absolute psychopath), War and Peace (as a somber soldier), and Grantchester (as a morally steadfast Anglican priest). His resume boasts a diverse array of characters, coupled with his Cambridge education, positioning him as a prime candidate to embody the sophisticated charm of 007 effortlessly.
Why James Norton May Not Be a Great Fit
The challenge for Norton lies in garnering a sufficiently wide fanbase to support him. Moving from a well-regarded television actor to the leading man in the globe’s most significant action franchise might be a steep climb for Norton. Cavill has the advantage of his Superman role; Norton, on the other hand, has yet to establish himself as a bona fide blockbuster star.
Rege-Jean Page (+600)
The Bridgerton sensation catapulted to fame with his portrayal of the charming Duke of Hastings in Netflix’s steamy historical series.
At 35, this actor from London graced the screens in July with Netflix’s priciest production to date, The Gray Man, alongside Ryan Gosling and Chris Evans, under the direction of the Russo brothers. His latest role had him in the role of a paladin in Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves.
Why Rege-Jean Page Is a Good Fit
Page Pros: Should Bond be considered the ultimate on-screen bachelor (and there’s little doubt he is), then Regé-Jean Page’s portrayal of Simon Basset, the Duke of Hastings in Shonda Rhimes’ Bridgerton adaptation, serves as an impeccable audition. Standing tall and strikingly handsome, his ease in period attire suggests he’d effortlessly transition into Bond’s signature tuxedo, coupled with the charm and wit required for Bond’s trademark quips.
Following Bridgerton’s debut on Christmas Day 2020, Page’s Bond prospects surged, his betting odds tightening dramatically from 40/1 to a notable 5/1 and now even more impressively to 3/1. Could an announcement be imminent?
Page’s latest role in Netflix’s The Gray Man saw him as a villainous CIA leader, a role that’s anticipated to continue in a m confirmed sequel. Amidst growing speculation about Page as the next Bond, The Radio Times sought the opinion of the Russo Brothers, directors of The Gray Man, on his suitability for the role. The American directors expressed overwhelming support, effectively giving him an enthusiastic four thumbs up.
Why Rege-Jean Page May Not Be a Great Fit
Bridgerton offers a delightful, fanciful, and distinctly American take on Regency England’s elite. While Hastings shows toughness at times, the question is: can Page bring the same level of intense, dark complexity to Bond that Craig introduced? Some might argue that he appears to come off as a bit too gentle for the role.
Final Thoughts
Beyond the leading five contenders, Sope Dirisu and Tom Hardy round out the list of seven actors with odds of +800 and +900, respectively, each considered under a +1000 chance to take on the role of James Bond next. Following closely are Callum Turner, Cillian Murphy, and the previously mentioned Cosmo Jarvis, each pegged at +1000 odds.
As the world gears up for the next chapter in the James Bond saga, speculation is rife with potential candidates vying to fill the suave shoes of Daniel Craig. From veteran entertainers to fresh-faced talent, the race includes a diverse roster of talent, with Aaron Taylor-Johnson currently leading the pack.
With the Bond producers famously tight-lipped, the true successor remains a secret, leaving fans and bookies alike in the dark. Amidst the speculation, the frontrunners would no doubt bring their own flair to the iconic role. As the chatter continues and bets are placed, the question of who will next embody the world’s most famous spy remains an enigma, which is fitting for the legacy of James Bond.
