Monday’s MLB Home Run Prop Picks Today – Best Bets to Hit a HR Today (4/13/2026)

It’s time to go yard on Monday, as there are 10 games on the schedule and plenty of home run bets to consider. Not every player in an advantageous spot will pay off – and predicting MLB home run picks is an inherently volatile task – but I’ve compiled a shortlist of the best bets to hit a home run today that I think can pan out.

You can opt for a safer option, some value, or a ceiling play. Either way, I’ll detail why each bat looks like a solid MLB home run pick for Monday’s slate. Remember to always consider batter form, splits, weather, ballpark, and matchup.

Of course, I’ve done the hard work for you, so let’s dive in and see which home run prop picks you should target today at DraftKings and other MLB betting sites.

Quick MLB HR Picks for Monday

Above is a quick snapshot of my best to hit a home run today. There are actually several appealing MLB HR picks that stand out on this betting slate, but I’ve done the research to pinpoint the three that figure to be the best.

I’ve also broken them down into three distinct categories, giving you bets that feel safe, provide extra value, and could offer a maximum ceiling compared to the other options.

“Safe” Home Run Prop Pick for Today – Aaron Judge (+215)

There are a few safe-ish home run prop picks today, but none look better than Aaron Judge. He is always live to go yard, but his odds to hit a homer always look better when he has a palatable matchup at home.

Yankee Stadium ranks 4th for power so far this year, and Judge still packs as much power into his bat as anyone. His nasty .455 ISO versus southpaws makes him an obvious MLB home run pick today, but a date with Yusei Kikuchi (.181 ISO vs. righties last year) makes him harder to ignore than usual.

Judge is always going to be worth a shot, though. He has four long balls already this year and was an unstoppable force last season when he crushed 53 home runs into the cheap seats.

That won him his third MVP award:

As if all of this weren’t enough, the wind is blowing out aggressively today, sending balls into the stands at 16 miles per hour. When we look to check things off for home run bets, this is the exact type of situation we seek, and when someone like Aaron Judge has dingers handed to him on a silver platter, we need to be ready to strike.

Not sold on Judge? You can consider other Yankees righties like Giancarlo Stanton (+290) or bet on Kikuchi’s early splits (.308 ISO versus lefties this year) being the new norm. If so, bigger shots with Jazz Chisholm (+515) and Cody Bellinger (+463) may be worthwhile.

Monday’s Best Home Run Value Bet – Corbin Carroll (+435)

Carroll is a rock-solid power hitter, as he’s coming off a season where he launched a career-high 31 HRs, and he is cooking again in 2026. He has already sent two balls into the stands, and he’s batting a blistering .327 at the plate.

You could really go off of that and his splits, as he carries a nasty .296 ISO against right-handed pitching. It gets better, of course, as he gets a park upgrade in Camden Yards, while Dean Kremer provides a winnable matchup.

Kremer is a decent real-life arm, but he’s making his 2026 debut and had some trouble (.190 ISO) with left-handed power last year. If those troubles persist in this matchup in this hitter’s haven, Carroll could continue his hot start.

There’s more, as Carroll has Arizona’s best fly ball rate (35%) and nobody on the Diamondbacks hits the ball harder (68.4%). If he brings his A-game in this spot, he truly stands out as one of the most intriguing MLB home run value picks.

Guys like Judge, Kyle Schwarber, and Shohei Ohtani are probably “safer”, but in terms of sheer value, he is doubling most of them up. He’s not as automatic as they tend to seem, but he has the set-up to match them, just the same.

Longshot Home Run Pick for 4/13 – Colton Cowser (+810)

Ryne Nelson gets a steep park downgrade on Monday, as he heads to Camden Yards to deal with a pretty powerful Baltimore Orioles offense.

Baltimore has dangerous power from both sides of the plate, but Nelson has specifically gotten slapped around by lefties so far in 2026. The sample size is admittedly small, but a woeful 13% K rate and a .323 ISO make you wonder if his traditional splits are reversing a bit this year.

If true, we should consider taking a chance on some lefty power bats from the O’s. Gunnar Henderson (+436) is an awesome bet no matter what, but if you were seeking a bit more upside when eyeing the best bets to hit a home run today, Colton Cowser is near the top of the list in terms of pushing the envelope.

Cowser packs some serious punch (.175 ISO) and happens to have Baltimore’s third-highest fly-ball rate (43%). He also hits hard 52% of the time and carries Baltimore’s second-best barrel rate (13.9%).

If Nelson’s lefty issues persist, Cowser and O’s left-handed bats are going to stick out like a sore thumb. Of course, you could always bet on their righty power doing most of the damage.

Should that be the path, Pete Alonso (+398) and Taylor Ward (+488) look like rock-solid MLB HR value bets.

Best Bet to Hit a Home Run for Monday

Aaron Judge (+215)

Was there ever a better MLB home run pick to target? Probably not. As mentioned, you can always pivot to Ohtani or Schwarber (I like both plenty), but Judge is forever in play to send one into the stands, and everything sets up beautifully for him on Monday.

To be fair, Judge isn’t enjoying the best start of his career. He does have four home runs already, but he is also batting an underwhelming .218. That said, the weather, matchup, park factor, and his undying power all combine to make him the best bet to hit a home run today.

Consider extra value with Carroll, and don’t be afraid to take a shot on Cowser. Heck, you could always aim high and put all three of these bats together on an MLB home run parlay. I do suggest targeting MLB home run picks individually whenever possible, but a three-pick slip isn’t too crazy.

Hopefully, today’s home run prop picks find you well, and at least one of these guys go yard. You can attack these exact prices at DraftKings, or simply check out the best baseball betting sites to shop lines before placing your bets.