MLB Home Runs Picks Today – Monday’s Best HR Props (4/6/2026)
It’s a day that ends in Y, so you better believe now is a good time to target some MLB home run picks. Every single MLB betting slate offers long ball potential, and it’s all about combining power hitters with park factors, weather, and the right matchup.
Wondering which MLB HR prop bets are worth your time? I’ve looked at all the MLB HR props live at DraftKings to single out a safe play, my favorite value, and the best longshot worth attacking.
My MLB home run predictions won’t always convert at a high rate, but these are going to be some of the best MLB HR bets you can possibly make. Let’s see what looks good for Monday’s slate.
Quick MLB HR Picks for Monday
| Player/Team | Opposing Pitcher | HR Odds | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | Ryan Feltner | +306 | Safe |
Ronald Acuna Jr. (ATL) | Jose Soriano | +488 | Value |
Nathan Church (STL) | Zack Littell | +850 | Longshot |
Here’s a quick list of my three favorite MLB HR picks for Monday. The tiers can certainly be viewed as arbitrary when considering a high-variance sport like baseball, but they should all still apply and make sense.
If I’m betting on which MLB players will hit home runs today, these are the three I’d start with. I’ll dive into each pick a bit deeper below.
“Safe” HR Pick for Monday – Yordan Alvarez (+306)
There’s no such thing as a truly “safe” pick of any kind – let alone MLB home run bets. That said, we get Yordan Alvarez at kind of an insane price tag. Not only is he priced at +306, but he’s in the best hitter park possible.
Alvarez and his Houston Astros get a massive park upgrade, even though it’s not super hot at Coors Field and the wind is actually blowing in. It’s important to remember that this park is actually most ideal simply for hits (#1), but the elevation and park design still help it rank 10th in home runs.
Alvarez also comes into this matchup with four dingers to his name this year already. As if all of that wasn’t enough to get you to click his name at DraftKings, we know he can mash righties, and today he goes up against a beatable one in Ryuan Feltner.
Feltner generated a disturbing 14% walk rate and a 19% K rate against lefties a year ago, but it’s his .190 ISO and 57.8% hard hit rate that we’re after. Alvarez’s power against right-handed pitching wasn’t great last year, but he’s so far displayed a .333 ISO versus righties in 2026.
This is a long-winded way of saying Yordan Alvarez is a really good bet to go yard, and he’s incredibly mispriced despite that fact.
Monday’s Best Home Run Value Bet – Ronald Acuna Jr. (+488)
My favorite MLB home run value pick for Monday is Ronald Acuna Jr. to go yard. The Atlanta Braves stud has yet to launch one into the stands this year, but we’re looking at a pretty absurd price (+488) for a guy that definitely has power.
Acuna has been battling health woes for the last two years, but in his last full season in 2023, he sent 41 balls into the cheap seats. Acuna’s current form is definitely suspect, but I am willing to risk it for this awesome price, especially since he’s in a really nice park for power.
Monday’s game is in L.A. against the Angels, and Angel Stadium ranks 7th for home runs. Not only that, but Acuna can wield his stick against Jose Soriano, who doesn’t offer an elite strikeout rate and gave up a 58% hard hit rate to righties in 2025.
On top of that, this game has some of the best weather we can ask for. It’s sunny and 69 degrees, while the wind is blowing out to left field. Acuna’s power has an excellent chance of waking up in this spot and returning elite betting value in the process.
Longshot HR Pick for 4/6 – Nathan Church (+850)
Want even more compelling odds? I’ve got you covered, as St. Louis Cardinals youngster Nathan Church looks like a fun flier due to his +850 price tag.
This one isn’t so much about the park factor or weather. Nationals Park ranks just 19th in terms of power, while it’s not ridiculously warm (61 degrees) or windy 9 mph cross winds. Church is far from a household name, too, while the 25-year-old hasn’t done much to even warrant a spot in the starting lineup so far in 2026.
However, Church flashed solid power (.190 ISO) in the minors in 2025, and today he can swing his bat against Zack Littell, who can have trouble against lefties. Littel’s .273 ISO and 50% fly ball rate this year seem quite attackable, while last year’s .195 ISO was still not great.
This MLB HR pick is admittedly a shot in the dark compared to my other two bets, so use this one sparingly – and ideally as a solo bet.
Betting on MLB Home Runs on Monday
That does it for Monday’s MLB HR picks. You have one somewhat safe home run bet via Alvarez, a second safe-ish play with more upside via Acuna, and a big swing with Church at his staggering +850 odds.
No HR bet is ever safe, so you really need to find a nice combination of splits, power, weather, park factor, and odds.
As usual, feel free to mix in big sticks like Shohei Ohtani and Cal Raleigh if you’re piecing together MLB HR parlays, but the pricing is good enough to just attack these bets individually.
