Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Prediction & Preview (July 30, 2025)
Two teams that haven’t battled it out on the hardwood this season finally meet in a matchup! The playoff hopefuls are the Phoenix Mercury, who head to Indiana to take on the Fever.
First things first, Caitlin Clark is not playing. She’s still sidelined with a groin injury and was ruled out for her fifth straight game. In spite of her absence, the Fever (14-12) is on a two-game win streak and wants to keep it going. Without Clark? Kelsey Mitchell has taken on most of the scoring duties for Indiana.
Phoenix (16-9) is coming off a win over the Washington Mystics; they’ve been killing it on the offense and rebound, and we see them as the more reliable bet because of how well they’ve defended.
Sportsbooks are calling this game pretty even, but the early action is looking like it favors the Mercury side. What else do you need to know? Keep reading to see the latest betting odds, trends, stats, players, and props, our best bets, and why we chose them!
Game Details
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury (16–9) vs. Indiana Fever (14–12)
- Date & Time: Wednesday, July 30, at 7:00 pm ET
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN
- How to Watch: WNBA League Pass, Bally Sports Indiana, local broadcast
- Head-to-Head: The first of three matchups this WNBA season
Betting Odds
The oddsmakers have spoken, and here are the latest betting lines from FanDuel:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Mercury | -3.5 (-108) | -176 | Over 166 (-110) |
Fever | +3.5 (-112) | +142 | Under 166 (-110) |
Betting Trends & Stats
How have both teams performed at sportsbooks, and what can the recent trends tell us going into the game?
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Mercury: 14–11
- Fever: 13–13
- Totals (Over/Under)
- Mercury: 12–12–1
- Fever: 13–13
- Scoring Notes
- Indiana’s games are averaging around 165.9 combined points.
- Phoenix has stayed under the total in 4 of their last 6 games.
- Situational Trends
- Indiana is 3–1 straight up at home over their last four games.
- Phoenix has won 4 of its last 5 road games.
- The underdog has covered in 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two squads.
Players & Props to Watch
Because Clark is still out, Indiana’s offense has been relying more on its vets, and Phoenix is on fire with a really balanced core. Here are the players that we are watching on the board and in the poor market!
Indiana Fever
- Kelsey Mitchell: She’s been Indiana’s go-to scorer, and she’s averaging 20.2 PPG and hitting 44% from deep. With her usage up? The Over 19.5 points at –110 is def worth a look.
- Aliyah Boston: She’s been holding it down in the paint, and she’ll have her hands full dealing with Sabally and Thomas. Staying out of early foul trouble is the priority here.
- NaLyssa Smith & Kristy Wallace: Both give spacing with their midrange and face-up games. Smith has been able to take control inside when she’s matched with undersized defenders.
Phoenix Mercury
- Alyssa Thomas: One of the most versatile players in the league, and she’s averaging around 10.5 boards a night. Her all-around impact makes her a solid double-double candidate!
- Satou Sabally: Really hard to contain; she can step outside, beat defenders off the dribble, and crash the boards, so Sabally is a matchup problem for most of the bigs.
- Kahleah Copper & Natasha Cloud: Their guard combo is a solid mix of pace and good decision-making. Copper gives Phoenix a dynamic scorer, and Cloud keeps the offense flowing when the half-court sets slow down.
Game Breakdown & Strategy Angles
Phoenix’s ball control and defensive length could overwhelm an Indiana team that’s still trying to adapt to playing without Clark!
Indiana and Phoenix both average around 77–80 possessions per game, but Phoenix is better at dictating the structure of those trips. They limit fast break chances and force opponents into set offenses. Without Clark, Indiana hasn’t looked to push the tempo much; they’ve averaged fewer than 9 fast break points per game in her absence.
Without Clark, the Fever are more static. They’ve averaged under 19 assists per game over the last four, and their spacing has tightened up. Kelsey Mitchell has had to do a lot off the dribble, which works when she’s good but turns into a liability when the defense loads up. Stretch forwards are still a problem for Indiana; opponents have shot over 40% from beyond the arc at the 4-spot in the last five games.
Mercury plays with control. They rank in the top five in assist-to-turnover ratio and in the top three in second-chance points. Alyssa Thomas is the engine on the boards and from the elbow, and she’s getting strong support from Copper and Cloud, who have combined for over 34 points per game in the last five outings.
Indiana has to hit threes in the first two quarters to space the floor and open driving lanes for Mitchell and Smith. If they go cold from outside in the first half, Phoenix will sit in the paint and dare them to shoot. The Mercury doesn’t overwhelm with scoring volume, but they’re well-coached, patient, and rarely beat themselves. That’s been enough against teams with limited creation options.
Our Best Bets
What are we looking at for value? Well, we have five angles for this matchup! Here are our best bets:
| Pick | Confidence | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
| Moderate (3/5) | Phoenix has been steadier ATS, and their half‑court discipline fits well against Indiana without Clark. |
Mercury −3.5 (−108) | Strong (4/5) | Indiana is without Caitlin Clark; Mercury have a size/rebounding edge and are surging. |
Under 166 (-110) | Moderate (3/5) | Fever’s scoring dips without Clark; slower pace favors a total below 166. |
Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 PTS (−110) | Strong (4/5) | Mitchell is Indiana’s go-to scorer without Clark and has hit 20+ in multiple recent games. This prop line is available at −102. |
Alyssa Thomas Double‑Double | Moderate (3/5) | Thomas is really active on the glass and in playmaking, so this is a solid value spin. |
FYI: Make sure you check our best online sportsbooks as it gets closer to tipoff for any line movement and prop availability!
Supporting Insights & Sharp Angles
- Phoenix is 8–2 when holding a lead after three quarters; Indiana is 3–6 in the same scenario.
- The Fever have allowed the most offensive rebounds in the league, and that’s bad news against Thomas and Sabally’s inside presence.
- The Mercury has scored 80 or more in five of their last six because of spacing and good ball movement.
- Indiana ranks in the bottom five in opponent field goal percentage, making them vulnerable to Phoenix’s early shot creation.
- Market movement and bet volume are trending toward the Mercury against the spread and Over 164.5
Why We’re Backing the Mercury Over the Fever
Final Score Prediction: Phoenix Mercury 82 – Indiana Fever 74
Phoenix has the more experienced core, and it shows when games are close. Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Cloud are leading the half-court sets and controlling the tempo late; they’re better equipped to close out tight matchups than Indiana’s current rotation.
The Fever have issues limiting second-chance points, and it’s an area where the Mercury’s size and rebounding depth (Thomas, Sabally) give them an advantage. Without Caitlin Clark’s rebounding and transition presence? Indiana becomes easier to scout: it forces Kelsey Mitchell into contested looks, and the offense slows way down.
Phoenix’s frontcourt versatility has been a problem for Indiana in the past, and their scoring balance gives them more ways to win than the Mitchell-or-bust approach the Fever are using.
Underdogs have covered in six of the last seven meetings between these teams, but Phoenix fits the short road favorite role here: deeper, steadier, and way less dependent on one scorer carrying the whole team.
Best Bets Recap
- Phoenix Mercury –3.5 (–108): Confidence: 4/5
- Moneyline: Phoenix ML (–176): Confidence: 3/5
- Total Points: Under 166 (–110): Confidence: 3/5
- Player Prop: Kelsey Mitchell Over 19.5 Points (–110): Confidence: 4/5
- Alt Bet (Sprinkle): Alyssa Thomas Double-Double: Confidence: 3/5
We’re with the Mercury in this one; they have the rebounding advantage, more late-game options, and fewer lineup gaps. They’re in a much better position to close this one out in regulation!
