Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces Game 1 Preview & Prediction (October 3, 2025)
It’s been a heck of a season for women’s bball, and the first game of the WNBA Finals will be a desert shoot-out starring the Phoenix Mercury vs. the Las Vegas Aces.
The ball drops at 8 pm on Friday, Oct. 3, at the Michelob ULTRA Arena in Vegas; home court advantage goes to the Aces for the first two games in the best-of-seven series before heading to PHX Arena in Phoenix.
Arizona and Las Vegas both more than earned their spots in the finals, but Game 1 is probably the most important; it gives the winners a psychological “we won” edge, and that sets the vibe for the next game.
The oddsmakers have the Aces as slight favorites to win at home, but the Mercury could surprise everyone. They are scrappy as heck and one of the most resilient postseason teams; they’ve won close games and have been sitting pretty as the underdogs.
The stadium will be packed, and both teams’ fans will be in attendance since they aren’t too far apart (about 300 miles), but the Aces fans will outnumber the opposition.
That could be a factor, but you never know! Keep reading for a complete breakdown of season and H2H trends, the latest betting odds, market analysis, strengths and weaknesses, and our picks for the four best bets!
Game Details
- Matchup: Phoenix Mercury vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date & Time: Friday, October 3, at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- How to Watch: ESPN
Season & Head-to-Head Trends
Let’s take a look at how the ladies of the Aces and Mercury did during the 2025 season and the H2H records:
Regular Season Records
- Las Vegas finished 30–14, placing second in the Western Conference. A’ja Wilson was at the top of her game with another MVP-caliber season; she averaged over 22 points and 11 rebounds per game.
- Phoenix came into the postseason as a lower seed but advanced behind solid guard play from Kahleah Copper and strong scoring in elimination games.
Head-to-Head 2025
- June 29, 2025: Las Vegas beat Phoenix 84–81. Wilson scored 26 points with 18 rebounds, and Phoenix hit 41.7% from three to stay in it.
- August 21, 2025: Las Vegas won 83–61. Wilson posted 19 points and 13 rebounds, and Phoenix shot one of its lowest percentages of the season.
- The Aces won the regular-season series 2–0.
Betting Trend Snapshot
- Phoenix is 4–1 ATS in its last five games against Las Vegas, which means it has value as an underdog.
- Las Vegas totals usually push higher at home, but Unders have been more common when the two teams play in Phoenix.
Betting Odds, Implied Lines & Market Moves
Wanna get in on the action for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals? You can! Look below for the current odds and lines courtesy of DraftKings, along with implied probabilities:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Mercury | +3 (-108) | +130 | Over 160 (-112) |
Aces | -3 (-112) | -155 | Under 160 (-108) |
Implied Probabilities
- Aces ML –155 → ~60.8% implied win probability
- Mercury ML +130 → ~43.5% implied win probability
Market Reads
- Vegas opened as the favorite, and sportsbooks have kept the spread tight around one possession; they are showing some respect for Phoenix’s playoff performances.
- The total has been posted in the 160–163 range, and that suggests that oddsmakers expect to see a competitive game with periods of defense slowing down scoring.
Betting Angles & Situational Plays
Game 1 lines are really tight, and the market leaves some room for different betting angles depending on how you think the matchup will play out! Below is how the spread, moneyline, total, and a few prop scenarios look before tip-off.
- Mercury +3 looks decent if you see this staying within a possession; Phoenix has covered four of the last six games against Vegas.
- Aces –3 backers are banking on Wilson re-establishing herself inside and Vegas’ rotation outlasting Phoenix’s starters in the second half.
- Mercury +130 has some underdog value if they can dictate half-court play and keep the turnovers low.
- Aces –155 makes sense mainly in parlays, as the straight line has a limited return.
- Over 160–163 fits if Vegas speeds up the game, attacks early in transition, and Phoenix’s perimeter shooters get good looks.
- Under 160–163 works if the Mercury controls possessions, the Aces’ interior defense clamps down, and nerves tighten up shot selection in the first quarter.
- A’ja Wilson points Over: We expect to see 20+ attempts and Phoenix to send single coverage at times.
- Mercury team total Under: if Vegas forces them off the arc? Phoenix’s offense can be flattened out.
- Live betting look: if Phoenix has the edge at halftime, think about the Aces’ second-half line; they have a track record of finishing games stronger when they’re at home.
Team Strengths, Weaknesses & Matchup Notes
Phoenix spreads its offense around several main scorers, and Las Vegas runs most of its attack through Wilson in the paint, with guard play around her. Here’s a look at the strengths and weaknesses of both squads and how they match up!
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury relies on balanced play and versatile wings to stay competitive in games.
Strengths
- DeWanna Bonner gives them playoff-tested leadership and grace under pressure.
- Alyssa Thomas contributes across all categories; she produces points, rebounds, and assists at a really high volume.
- Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally stretch defenses with slashing and perimeter shooting, which gives Phoenix several outlets when possessions slow down.
Weaknesses
- The bench offense can be unreliable, and that forces heavier workloads on the starting players.
- Defensive rebounding has broken down against stronger frontcourts.
- Turnovers go way up when opponents apply extended guard pressure.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces have been built around Wilson’s inside game and supported by guards who know how to manage possessions.
Strengths
- A’ja Wilson is basically on autopilot when she establishes a deep position; she draws fouls and high-value looks.
- Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young balance out scoring with distribution; they keep opponents spread out.
- Playing at Michelob ULTRA Arena gives Vegas a big lift, as its home record has been one of the WNBA’s best.
Weaknesses
- When Wilson is up against steady double coverage? The Aces’ offense can lose flow if the outside shooters aren’t converting.
- Perimeter shooting has been up and down, and when those shots miss, opponents pack the paint to cut off Wilson’s touches inside.
Matchup Focus
- Phoenix’s number one priority will be limiting Wilson in the paint by sending help and making her finish through contact.
- In the guard matchup, Diana Taurasi works as a distributor to free Copper and Sabally, and Chelsea Gray controls possessions with her passing and ability to score when she’s left open.
- Pace could determine the flow and outcome of this game. Phoenix uses structured half-court sets, and Las Vegas tries to generate offense early in the shot clock before defenses have a chance to reset.
Risks, Counterarguments & What Has to Go Right
- If Phoenix racks up 15 or more turnovers? Las Vegas will convert them into transition points and put the game out of reach for the Mercury.
- If the Aces’ guards can’t connect from the perimeter, Phoenix will send in extra defenders at Wilson and force Vegas into contested late-clock shots.
- Early foul issues for Wilson would change the frontcourt dynamic and give the Mercury a chance to attack the paint much more aggressively.
- Opening-night nerves could turn into rushed decisions on both squads, and that could totally change the scoreline.
Our Best Bets
We have looked at all of the numbers on the market, and we’ve decided that there are two angles that speak to us and a bonus prop that looks really good!
Best Bet #1: Phoenix Mercury +3 (Confidence 4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Historically, WNBA Finals openers have stayed within a possession or two; both teams are usually cautious in the beginning.
- Phoenix has covered four of the last six against Las Vegas; this proves that they can be and stay competitive even in matchups against stronger squads.
- The trio of Copper, Thomas, and Sabally gives Phoenix multiple scoring outlets, and that cuts back on the chance of prolonged droughts.
- Wilson drives the Aces’ offense, but Phoenix has enough length on the wing to contest her looks and force Vegas to get production from someone else.
- Even if Vegas wins, the line leaves some room for Phoenix to cash.
Best Bet #2: Under 160 (Confidence 3/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Finals Game 1s usually have slower possessions and tighter defense, so the scoring is more modest.
- Phoenix limits transition looks, and Las Vegas protects the paint as well as anyone in the league.
- Their last five meetings have averaged 158 points, which is a good indicator for the Under.
- The risk comes if Wilson gets hot early and perimeter shots fall; scoring could push the total higher.
Bonus Prop: A’ja Wilson Over Points (Confidence 4/5)
Why Do We Like It?
- Wilson is the primary scoring option for Las Vegas and will get a heavy workload with a lot of shot opportunities inside.
- She’s averaging about 28 points during this postseason; her scoring output is high even against extra defensive attention.
- Phoenix just doesn’t have the depth in the frontcourt to contain her over four quarters, especially if she stakes out a position and draws fouls.
The Aces One Up the Mercury in Game 1
Final Score Prediction: Las Vegas Aces 82 – Phoenix Mercury 78
We are sold on the Aces to win Game 1! Vegas has been here before (it’s their fourth time since 2020), and Phoenix hasn’t been here since 2021.
Yes, the Mercury has its big three of Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and Kahleah Copper (all of whom have made it to a WNBA Final), but Cooper is the only player who’s actually won one. Experience matters, and the Aces have more. And they have A’ja Wilson, so…
Phoenix will cover the spread, but Vegas will pull it off late with Wilson, who is the best women’s basketball player. Yeah, we said it!
We aren’t saying the Aces will take the whole thing, but they will win Game 1; it’ll be close, competitive, and the Finals will be hard-fought on both sides.
- The Aces are the fav for good reason, but the spread is short because of Mercury’s resilience.
- Phoenix’s vet players and playoff heart mean that they are a live underdog.
- It’ll be defensive from the jump and favor the Under.
- Wilson will rule the court, but Game 1 won’t be anywhere close to a blowout.
Best Bets Recap
- Phoenix Mercury +3 (–112): ★★★★☆ (4/5)
- Under 160 (–112): ★★★☆☆ (3/5)
- A’ja Wilson Over Points: ★★★★☆ (4/5)
