Maple Leafs vs. Panthers Game 6 Prediction & Best Bets (May 16, 2025)

By: Alyssa Waller | Last Updated: May 15, 2025

The Maple Leafs are against the boards after watching a 2–0 series lead vanish *poof* into thin air. Florida’s been the more composed, better-structured team since Game 3, and now they have a real chance to send Toronto packing for the second year in a row.

Game 6 goes to Sunrise, where the Panthers have their claws out and the Leafs are trying to stay in it. Wanna know what we think about this matchup? Keep reading for the latest odds, important trends, and the bets that are worth locking in before the puck hits the ice!

Series Recap: Leafs Lose Momentum

Toronto came out hard in the first two games. Since then? It’s been Florida all the way. Below is how they got to where they are:

Game 1: TOR 5, FLA 4 – The Leafs fed off their home crowd and grabbed the opener with just enough offense to survive a third-period push.
Game 2: TOR 4, FLA 3 – Matthews and Nylander were on fire, and Toronto took a 2–0 series lead, looking totally in sync.
Game 3: FLA 5, TOR 4 (OT) – Everything changed in Game 3. The Panthers hissed back at home, tied it late, and got the win in OT.
Game 4: FLA 2, TOR 0 – Florida slowed the game way down and played keep-away. The Leafs had no answer to this strategy.
Game 5: FLA 6, TOR 1 – A total meltdown. Defensive breakdowns, penalties, and a dull showing in front of their own fans.

Since that OT win in Game 3, the Panthers have been in charge of the pace, clogging passing lanes, and wearing down Toronto’s stars shift by shift.

Main Storylines to Watch

It’s not exactly a mystery why the Leafs are in big trouble. A few main themes have defined the series shift, and all of them are front and center going into Game 6.

Leafs’ Top Line Disappearing Act

After carrying the offense in the first two games, Toronto’s biggest names—Matthews, Marner, and Nylander—have had a hard time producing.
Matthews, Marner, and Nylander are struggling to generate clean looks, and Florida’s blue line—especially Ekblad and Forsling—is taking away space and forcing low-percentage chances.
If Toronto’s top scorers don’t wake up? It’s all over but the crying.

Bobrovsky > Woll

Sergei Bobrovsky has been dialed in the past three games, posting a .923 save percentage and making big stops under traffic.
Toronto’s goaltending just hasn’t held up. Woll and Samsonov have each taken a turn, but neither has been able to steady things when things start going haywire around the net.
Florida’s been way more disciplined in front of the net, too, which makes Bobrovsky’s life easier; unfortunately, Toronto can’t say the same.

Special Teams Swing

Florida’s power play is clicking away at 30.8% in the last three games, scoring 4 goals on 13 chances.
Toronto’s penalty kill has been chasing and hasn’t adapted so well—they’re taking penalties at the worst possible moments.
That gap in special teams has been a slow but steady advantage for Florida, especially because of how few 5-on-5 chances the Leafs are converting.

Betting Odds (via DraftKings)

Looking to throw some money down on Game 6? Look below for the current betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Maple Leafs	+1.5 (-135)	+200	Over 5.5 (-115)
Panthers	-1.5 (+114)	-245	Under 5.5 (-105)

Betting Lines (as of May 15)

Point Spread: Maple Leafs +1.5 (-135) | Panthers -1.5 (+114)
Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-115) | Under 5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Maple Leafs +200 | Panthers -245

FYI: Odds can and do change as game time approaches! Check DraftKings (or your preferred sportsbook) for the latest info.

Best Bets for Game 6

The Panthers have a 3-2 series lead, and the action goes back to Sunrise, Florida, and Game 6 has what we think are three really intriguing betting opportunities. Below are our best bet picks:

Florida Panthers Moneyline (-225) – The Panthers have been formidable at home this postseason, boasting an impressive 6-1 record. Their structured defense and the stellar play of goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky have been pivotal in their recent success. Toronto has had a really hard time being consistent, particularly in its defensive zone. Florida’s experience in closing out series, as evidenced by their previous playoff runs, gives them a big advantage in this matchup.
Over 5.5 Total Goals (-115) – Four of the five games in this series have surpassed the 5.5 goal mark. Now that the Maple Leafs are facing elimination, expect them to adopt a more aggressive offensive approach, and that could possibly lead to a higher-scoring affair. Florida’s ability to capitalize on turnovers and its depth in scoring further support the likelihood of the total going over.
Sam Reinhart Anytime Goal Scorer (+165) – Reinhart has been a reliable offensive threat for the Panthers—he’s led the team with six playoff goals. His role on the top power-play unit and presence in high-danger areas make him a really strong candidate to find the back of the net in Game 6.

Player Prop Watch

You can also bet on the player markets! The prop bets that look good to us in Game 6 are in the table below. Each one has value that’s based on usage, game script, and recent trends:

Auston Matthews: Shots on Goal Over 3.5 (-125) – Toronto needs him to fire—expect volume, especially if they fall behind early.
Carter Verhaeghe: Over 0.5 Assists (+120) – He’s been involved on zone entries and secondary setups—chances are coming.
Matthew Tkachuk: Over 0.5 Points (-150) – Florida feeds off his energy, and he always finds a way to be in the middle of it.

How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 16, 2025
Time: 8:00 pm ET
TV: TNT, truTV, Max (U.S.), Sportsnet/CBC (Canada)
Streaming: Max, ESPN+ (in select markets)

Our Final Prediction: Florida Panthers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2

Toronto’s running out of time, and nothing has been working since Game 2. Their big names haven’t had the space to operate, their defensive structure has fallen apart under pressure, and the goaltending hasn’t bailed them out. Florida’s playing with control and patience, letting Toronto make the first mistake, and then pouncing on the advantage.

They don’t have to press—just stay with what’s been working so far: tight defensive coverage, capitalizing on mistakes, and letting Bobrovsky clean up the rest.

Final Thoughts: Panthers Claw it Out to Close

Betting Recap & What We’re Playing

– Panthers Moneyline (-225)
– Over 5.5 Total Goals (-115)
– Sam Reinhart Anytime Goal Scorer (+165)
– Florida to win the series

Florida has played more controlled hockey, made better decisions with the puck, and kept the pressure on Toronto without overcommitting. They’ve avoided breakdowns and stayed steady from shift to shift. Toronto has had its moments, but they haven’t been able to string together anything complete since Game 2. With better goaltending, more reliable team play, and home ice, Florida’s in a really strong position to close this out.

Ready to Place Your Bets? Check out our list of the best legal betting sites with top odds and bonuses.

Alyssa Waller

Alyssa contributes sportsbook/online casino reviews, but she also stays on top of any industry news, precisely that of the sports betting market. She’s been an avid sports bettor for many years and has experienced success in growing her bankroll by striking when the iron was hot. In particular, she loves betting on football and basketball at the professional and college levels.