Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Preview & Prediction (August 2, 2025)
It’s a reeeeematch (you have to say it like a DJ says reeeemix or this doesn’t work). It’s gonna be a doozy, because the Minnesota Lynx are heading to Vegas to play the Aces again. And the Lynx have already beaten them twice.
We’re two-thirds through the regular WNBA season, and the Aces are 7th in the standings, which is way behind the first-place Lynx. They just picked up a 89–74 win over the Sparks, led by A’ja Wilson’s 34 points and a defense that held L.A. to 4-of-24 from three.
The Lynx beat the defending champs, the New York Liberty, 100–93 behind 30 points from league scoring leader Napheesa Collier. Minnesota hit 15 of 31 from three in the win.
Collier and Wilson are both MVP front-runners, the Lynx are this close to being the No. 1 seed, and the Aces need to up their game.
It’s the year of the Lynx, and they’re the hands-down road favs, but can the Aces stop their rampage?
Keep scrolling to see team form, season stats, the latest betting odds, H2H, player matchups, advanced metrics, our picks for the three best bets, and a bonus prop!
Game Details
- Matchup: Minnesota Lynx (23–5) at the Las Vegas Aces (14–13)
- Date & Time: Saturday, August 2, at 3 pm ET
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV
- How to Watch: ABC (national) and ESPN+ (streaming)
- The Stakes: Minnesota leads the Western Conference with a 23–5 record, and Las Vegas is fighting for its life to stay near the playoff bubble at 14–13 in a crowded bracket
Team Form & Season Stats
How have the Lynx and the Aces been playing prior to this game? Let’s take a look:
Minnesota Lynx
- On a five-game win streak, with recent wins against some of the top teams in the WNBA.
- Holding opponents to 78.9 points per game, and that’s the best mark in the league.
- They lead the WNBA in three-point percentage at 38.2%.
- They’ve won 11 of 13 road games, and that’s one of the best road records in the league.
Las Vegas Aces
- Sitting around .500 after a huge drop-off from last season’s performance.
- Offensive numbers are down; only 81.6 PPG compared to 92.8 last year.
- 3–5 in their last eight games. Wilson is still anchoring the team, but her scoring support has been hit-or-miss.
- Defensive rating has slipped to 9th, with perimeter rotations and transition coverage causing problems.
Betting Odds
Wanna put some cash on this matchup? Look below for the latest odds and lines posted on DraftKings:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Lynx | -5 (-110) | -230 | Over 167 (-108) |
Aces | +5 (-110) | +190 | Under 167 (-112) |
Line Movement (before the above latest lines)
- The spread opened at Lynx –4.5 and moved to –5.5 after early betting hit Minnesota.
- The total dropped from 166 to 165 as bettors reacted to the Lynx’s defensive form.
Head-to-Head Breakdown
Minnesota has outscored Las Vegas by a combined 45 points in two meetings this season, including a 31-point rout in their last matchup, which was Vegas’ worst loss of the year.
Season Series
- Game 1: Lynx 92, Aces 78
- Game 2: Lynx 88, Aces 57
Last 5 Matchups
- Minnesota is ahead 4–1 vs. Las Vegas
ATS Record in Series
- The Lynx are 4–1 covering against the Aces during that stretch
Main Player Matchups
23.8 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.1 SPG: Collier works best facing up from the high post and attacking gaps before help can rotate. Minnesota runs angled screens and slips to get her space at the elbow, where she can shoot, drive, or hit cutters. Defensively, she plays early help and anticipates entry passes, which disrupts Vegas’s rhythm when they try to get A’ja set on the block.
22.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2.3 BPG: Wilson is being overloaded in the half-court. Without consistent movement around her, she’s seeing hard doubles off the catch and has to reverse pivot or pull up without spacing. Her shot timing is still on point, but the reads are delayed, and Vegas hasn’t created enough motion to give her clean isolation chances.
- Minnesota: Kayla McBride (42.1% from three) is a screen-heavy shooter who takes advantage of delayed rotations. If Vegas trails screens or hesitates to switch, she’ll find clean looks in rhythm coming off movement; Dorka Juhász anchors the rebounding effort and doesn’t need help boxing out. She’s quick to push the ball upcourt after a board, creating early mismatches before defenses set.
- Vegas: Kelsey Plum needs downhill touches. When she starts her actions from the wing with a live dribble, she draws secondary help and opens kickouts. If she’s relegated to spot-ups, Vegas loses its perimeter pressure; Jackie Young can’t get caught ball-watching. Minnesota uses weak-side movement and cuts to pull defenders out of position, and Young’s off-ball awareness has to be tighter to avoid giving up clean looks at the rim.
Advanced Metrics Breakdown
Want some advanced metrics? You got it!
| Stat | Lynx | Aces |
|---|---|---|
Offensive Rating | 109.4 (1st) | 101.1 (6th) |
Defensive Rating | 96.5 (1st) | 100.5 (9th) |
Net Rating | +12.9 (1st) | +0.6 (6th) |
Pace | 95.1 (10th) | 97.3 (4th) |
ATS Record | 16-11-1 | 11-16 |
O/U Record | 15-13 | 12-15 |
Our Best Bets
As for the best bets, we have three solid angles and a bonus prop that’s definitely worth a look!
| Bet | Confidence Level | Why Do We Like It? |
|---|---|---|
Minnesota Lynx -230 | High | Minnesota has outplayed Vegas in both meetings and is the more balanced team |
Minnesota Lynx -5 (-110) | Medium-High | Won by 14 and 31 in the previous matchups; still undervalued against Vegas |
Under 167 (-108) | Medium | Slower possessions and shot selection could keep this below the current line |
A’ja Wilson Over 20.5 Points | Medium | Should get the volume, and even with defensive attention, she finds her looks |
Final Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Lynx 85, Aces 74
Minnesota’s depth and defensive discipline give them the advantage, and that’s why we add backing them to win. They’ve disrupted the Aces’ offensive rhythm in both previous meetings, limiting passing options and forcing contested shots. Vegas will need superhuman games from both Wilson and Plum just to stay in range.
If the Lynx control the pace by halftime? This could very well follow the same pattern as their earlier wins; smackdowns.
Best Bets Recap
- Lynx ML (–230): High
- Lynx –5: Medium-High
- Under 167: Medium
- A’ja Wilson Over 20.5 pts: Medium
Before placing your bets, always check the most up-to-date odds—lines can shift fast as game time approaches, so staying sharp could make all the difference. And to make sure you’re getting the best value, explore our list of top-rated sports betting sites.
