New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction (October 28, 2025)
Two 2-1 Eastern Conference foes square off on Tuesday night, with one inching one step closer to first place in the conference. The Milwaukee Bucks will play host when the New York Knicks come to town, as both teams are off to solid starts, but only one of them can avoid falling to 2-2.
Both teams have flexed their defensive muscle early in the 2025-26 NBA campaign, but New York specifically has offered legit defensive bite as the league’s third most efficient defense. Can they keep it going against Giannis Antetokounmpo and a Bucks offense grading out as the 8th best in the NBA? Only time will tell.
The early Knicks vs. Bucks odds suggest we’re in for a tight affair, as the Knicks are mild 1.5-point favorites despite playing on the road. Bettors can get them at -125 straight up, but their defense doesn’t seem to be enough to calm a lofty 229.5 game total.
Will the Knicks stay hot in this series and win their sixth straight against the Bucks, or should bettors back the Bucks at home? I’ll break down Tuesday night’s tilt, offering my top picks and ultimate winner prediction.
Game Details
- Matchup: New York Knicks (2-1) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (2-1)
- Date & Time: Tuesday, October 28, at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
- How to Watch: NBC and Peacock App
Offseason / Roster Changes
We are now three games into the 2025-26 NBA regular season, but it can be helpful to note some key moves from both teams. Here’s what applies the most to Tuesday’s game:
The Knicks made one massive move this offseason, as they fired head coach Tom Thibodeau and replaced him with Mike Brown. So far that move has led to improved defense and grit, but only time will tell if it actually holds.
Brown wasn’t the only big change, as New York also made moves to bolster their depth. To do that, they went out and acquired scorer Jordan Clarkson and big man Guerschon Yabusele. The two hope to effectively support superstars Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns.
The Bucks realized their own failure this offseason, taking advantage of a financial loophole to unload injured superstar Damian Lillard and parlay their misfortune into star center Myles Turner.
Turner effectively gives Milwaukee a younger and more athletic version of Brook Lopez, who left to play for the LA Clippers. The Bucks worked to fill the hole left by the aging Lillard, as they brought in scorer Cole Anthony and also retained Kevin Porter Jr.
Early Season Performance & Trends
New York Knicks
The Knicks have always been known for their defensive aptitude. After taking a step back in that regard last year, the move to Mike Brown seems to at least temporarily remedied that.
Brown has New York playing an extremely slow brand of offense, with Jalen Brunson and co. opting not to push the pace. That’s placed an emphasis on patience and efficiency, but New York rolling in as the 6th slowest offense in the NBA has helped keep them fresh, translating into the league’s third best defense.
The team as a whole hasn’t delivered top shelf offensive production, but they’ve leaned hard on Jalen Brunson, who has responded by scoring 30 points per game through the team’s first three contests. Team success has been fleeting on offense, however, as the Knicks rank just 22nd in three-point shooting percentage and 27th in scoring.
In terms of defensive weaknesses, the Knicks have given up considerable production on the fastbreak. Their interior defense – assuming it’s at full strength – could limit Giannis and co. to a degree, but if they allow the Bucks to push the pace, they could struggle.
Milwaukee Bucks
It’s been roughly the opposite for the Bucks, who steamrolled their first two opponents with dominant offense before losing a lower scoring affair with a solid Cavaliers squad.
Giannis Antetokounmpo appears to be in NBA MVP form already, as he’s averaged an absurd 36 points per game across three outings. The Greek Freak has also dominated the glass (16 rebounds per game) and has taken on the role of facilitator (7 assists per game) due to the team lacking a reliable point guard.
The team has been dealing with an injury to starting point guard Kevin Porter Jr., and has struggled to locate stable offensive production outside of Giannis. Despite that, the Bucks are showing early signs of being one of the more balanced teams in the NBA, ranking 8th in offense and 14th in defense thus far.
So far Milwaukee’s biggest flaw beyond simply not having a second reliable star is their insufficient rebounding. The team presently ranks 28th on the glass and are not getting enough hands on deck beyond Antetokounmpo.
Head‑to‑Head / Historical Context
The Knicks and Bucks have a pretty rich history, having faced off 235 times during the regular season. Milwaukee holds a mild edge in the series, with a 125-110 advantage.
It’s been all New York lately, though, as the Knicks have reeled off five consecutive wins in the series. Milwaukee lost by nine points the last time these two sides met back in March, and that was the closest any of the last four meetings have been.
This series has been extremely streaky lately, as the Bucks won nine games in a row against the Knicks before New York began exerting their dominance.
Tuesday’s game will go down at the Fiserv Forum, and it’s worth noting three of New York’s recent wins did occur in Milwaukee.
Given the hot streaks, you could argue in favor of the Knicks staying hot in the season series, or that Milwaukee could be ready to snap that streak and start one of their own.
Key Matchup Breakdown
The Knicks go as Jalen Brunson goes these days. He is an isolation scorer who thrives on breaking down his man and penetrating the defense. He and Karl-Anthony Towns feed off of each other, and when they are both clicking, they can make life easy on their outside shooters.
Most of that hasn’t come to fruition, of course, as KAT has not been healthy (nor overly effective), and the Knicks have not been hitting with regularity from outside. Due to KAT’s status for this game being an unknown, it stands to reason that New York will lean hard into Brunson, generating a lot of the offense on his own on Tuesday.
The same can be said for the Bucks, as Giannis is taking over playmaking and interior scoring these days. He’s always been the type of star that gets fed the ball, but he will initiate a good chunk of the offense – especially given the continued absence of KPJ.
The Bucks don’t have much of a choice, but Ryan Rollins did shine with 14 points and eight assists in a start last game. If that can translate to a suboptimal matchup with the Knicks, he could be tasked with running more of the offense and freeing up Giannis a bit more.
Regardless, the name of the game is penetrate and score, or force the defense to collapse and kick it out to open shooters. The Bucks have the 9th-best three-point shooting offense so far, so that could again be a winning strategy for Milwaukee – especially with the Knicks (21st) struggling to defend the arc.
The pace battle probably lies with the Bucks at home. New York will definitely want to keep the pace slow and allow themselves to stay fresh so they can defend well and limit Milwaukee’s hot outside shooting. However, Giannis is a handful and if the Bucks can push the pace, they should be able to get open looks and also exploit New York’s weak fastbreak defense.
- Giannis on the break/Giannis inside: The big matchup to monitor is just Giannis versus the Knicks. Can he exploit their fastbreak defense, and can he take advantage of them inside?
- Bucks outside shooters vs. Knicks D: So far, New York hasn’t really been stopping the outside shot that well, while Milwaukee has been red hot from deep. If those both stay true, it could be a long night for the Knicks on defense.
- Brunson, and then what?: Brunson has been getting his all season. How he fares in this spot, especially considering the Bucks aren’t allowing people to get to the free-throw line, will be interesting. But even bigger than Brunson is if New York has enough within their supporting cast in the event his shot isn’t falling.
It’s still very early in the NBA season, but home court edge is a thing, and so are health and narrative. Milwaukee is historically tough to beat at home, but the Knicks are also rather banged up.
KAT is the big name to watch. He has not been 100% through the first three games, and it’s shown up on the stat sheet. A healthy Towns might give the Knicks the edge they need, but if he’s out or even limited, they could be in trouble.
The other thing is the Bucks have more to prove in this matchup. Not only have the Knicks owned them over the last five meetings, but New York is pegged as a title threat. Giannis and co. could be eager to send a message – much like they nearly did in a tight loss to Cleveland last game.
Betting Odds & Market Interpretation
Check out the latest Knicks vs. Bucks odds (via FanDuel) for Tuesday night:
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
Knicks | -2.5 (-108) | -136 | Over 228.5 (-114) |
Bucks | +2.5 (-112) | +116 | Under 228.5 (-106) |
What the Market Suggests
It’s fairly rare to see a road team favored, especially when the home team isn’t a bad team.
The Bucks have a lot to prove this year, but they’ve looked good through their first three games, so this pricing may be more about where the Knicks finished last year (ECF) and the fact that they’ve won the last five games in this series.
We’re getting good value with the Bucks at home at both +1.5 and the -102 moneyline. The total is a bit trickier. The Knicks have a very good defense and a slow pace, while the Bucks have been efficient, but have an offense that is going to be tough to trust beyond their superstar.
From a Bettor’s Lens
The early value appears to lie with the Bucks. The key will come down to the status of Towns, while the Knicks have a few other players that are banged up. Milwaukee is without KPJ, but the injury impact would favor the Bucks overall.
Milwaukee is also at home, and they have looked good. I tend to think this pricing is based on the public’s perception of these two teams, and not necessarily an accurate indication of where the odds should be.
The tricky part is it’s basically a pick’em, so you do still get quality value no matter which way you decide to bet. The value, then, may lie within the game total.
Situational Considerations
Neither of these teams is battling special levels of fatigue, but the Knicks played in Miami two days ago and continue their road trip here in Milwaukee.
The biggest thing for this matchup will be the injury report. Given the fact that Milwaukee doesn’t have as many injuries – and none to their top players – they hold a mild edge.
Best Bets & Confidence Levels
| Bet | Recommendation | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
Over 229.5 | The Bucks are playing reasonably fast and putting up over 122 points per game. NYK have struggled against the fastbreak and the 3 ball. It could be a perfect recipe for a lot of points. | 7/10 |
Bucks +116 | The Bucks are being undervalued at home. New York’s offense hasn’t been elite to start the year and they could be without key players on the road. | 7/10 |
Odds for Knicks vs Bucks are shifting as tip-off nears — key injuries and sharp action are driving line moves. Stay updated and secure the best prices by checking our best sports betting sites.
Final Score Prediction & Closing Thoughts
Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks 117, New York Knicks 114
Milwaukee is usually at their best at home, and they are currently 8th in scoring with Giannis aiding the 8th best interior scoring offense, and their shooters also connecting from long range.
All of that could change if the Knicks find a way to slow down the pace, but their fastbreak and outside defensive issues make the Bucks a bad matchup for them right now. And this is before we know if KAT is playing or not.
Jalen Brunson is good enough to help the Knicks keep it close, of course, and if the Bucks are going to run and put up points, the odds are good New York won’t be too far behind. I love the Bucks at +2.5, Milwaukee straight up, and for this game to be high-scoring enough to hit the Over.
