The “Shoulder” Factor: Is a Healthy Pacquiao a Good Bet?

The first fight between Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao went to a Decision in favor of “Money” Mayweather. Once the fight was over, Manny Pacquiao cried foul to an extent, suggesting that he wasn’t at 100% full strength due to a shoulder injury.

For years, Pacquiao truthers and even he and his camp suggested that had his shoulder been feeling better, he’d have won the match. It’s a hot topic coming into September’s Mayweather vs. Pacquiao 2 battle, as bettors everywhere want to know if a healthy Manny will actually have the edge.

To figure out whether or not it makes a difference, I’ll break down this narrative and what it means for the Mayweather vs. Pacquiao rematch.

What Happened to Manny Pacquiao’s Shoulder in the First Fight?

It was revealed after the first fight that Manny Pacquiao suffered a “significant” rotator cuff tear that required surgery. Manny’s camp even tried to get an anti-inflammatory shot approved in the dressing room, but it was ultimately not allowed.

Due to the recovery timeline (9-12 months) and the money at stake, Pacquiao moved forward with the bout, despite not being at 100%.

Given that this injury has been proven to be factual, it’s fair to wonder if Pacquiao would have performed better if he wasn’t dealing with such a devastating injury.

Not sold that it would have mattered much? There is a case to be made that Pacquiao wasn’t beating Mayweather, no matter how healthy he was. But to shrug it off like it meant nothing feels disingenuous.

How Much Did the Shoulder Injury Actually Impact Pacquiao?

The Manny Pacquiao shoulder injury was probably a bigger deal than even he and his team are suggesting. It doesn’t forgive the loss or mean that he would have won if he were healthy, but the stats are eye-popping.

This is just a three-fight comparison, and it’s painfully obvious that Manny’s punch volume and landing efficiency both plummet.

Now, could the key difference be Floyd Mayweather’s trademark defense and pacing? Sure, but the sharp contrast in numbers suggests this shoulder argument has more legs than some care to admit.

Pacquiao’s strength resides in his volume and punch power. If he can’t throw punches as much as he wants to, nor deliver them with the same impact as normal, he’s at a disadvantage.

We can’t really measure that a decade later, but the sheer idea of combining any level of discomfort and inefficiency with Mayweather’s defense certainly doesn’t favor Pacquiao.

What a Healthy Pacquiao Changes in the Rematch

Let’s just play devil’s advocate here. Whether you liked Mayweather to win the first time or this time, if Pacquiao truly wasn’t healthy and that was a key contributor to his output, we need to calibrate a bite here.

If that was the main underlying reason for his poor performance – and not solely Mayweather’s fighting style – then there’s undeniable value to be tapped into.

Truth be told, a decade makes a difference, too. Mayweather’s elite defense, pacing, and endurance may not be at the level they once were. That could open the door for Pacquiao’s punching volume and ability to produce damage to give him a serious leg up in a rematch.

It’s as simple as this: if we can trust Pacquiao to generate more value and more power, we need to give his plus money odds a long, hard look.

This doesn’t need to equate to Pacquiao knocking out Mayweather, either. It just needs to mean he can level the playing field, steal points that he couldn’t get the first time around, and give him a shot if this bout once again comes down to the judges.

The Mayweather Counterpoint Bettors Can’t Ignore

The debate of Manny Pacquiao being at full strength for this rematch is heating up. Even I am starting to feel the burn, and I already went on record to say Mayweather was a borderline lock – especially at his original cheap price.

But there’s something people tend to discount when embracing the “Pacquiao wasn’t healthy” defense; Mayweather still outlanded him by 67 punches.

Would a shoulder injury really account for that much of a drop in volume and efficiency? And would it really make an impact on the opposite side of the matchup when it came to defending Mayweather’s offense?

If you’re saying “yes”, you’re basically saying a bum shoulder negates any of Pacquiao’s error points. I’m talking about him reaching, missing, and failing to string together combinations and long scoring sequences.

An injury can only explain so much. It’s pretty unlikely it explains everything. Unless you truly believe that to be the case, automatically betting on Pacquiao simply because he’s now 100% healthy feels like a knee-jerk mistake.

Does a Healthy Shoulder Make Pacquiao a Good Bet?

I already wrote up my Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 prediction and preferred betting pick. Nothing I’ve detailed here really changes my opinion, simply because I already took it into account when dissecting the matchup.

You can check out my top pick for the bout at the link above, but I will say this: Pacquiao being at full strength does give him a boost in the matchup.

That is, of course, if you think it really matters a decade later, or if you thought going into the first matchup that Manny really had a chance in the first place.

But fighters being able to throw more volume and inflict more damage with maximum power obviously gives them a better shot. Whether that means Manny could have or will get a knockout or if it simply allows the fight to be more interesting, that is open for debate.