Holloway vs. Poirier Prediction & Betting Preview: UFC 318
Poirier Will come into this fight against Holloway as the winner of their last two encounters. He won one match (on February 4, 2012) by submission and the other (on April 13, 2019) by decision. However, Holloway goes into the fight as the clear favorite. He is the current BMF titleholder and will be looking to retain his title and grab a win against Poirier in what would be their last match.
For Poirier, a win at UFC 318 will be a perfect three-win record against long-time opponent Holloway. He brings knockout power, slick submissions, and veteran guile. But will those be strong enough to checkmate Holloway’s relentless volume striking and unbreakable cardio?
While the odds change, the current figures put Holloway as the betting favorite while Poirier is the underdog. We’ll review each fighter’s profile and make our tactical breakdown. Then, we’ll recommend bets based on what we think will most likely happen.
Fight Overview
- Matchup: Max Holloway (26-8-0) vs. Dustin Poirier (30-9-0, 1 NC)
- Event: UFC 318
- Date: Saturday, July 19
- How to Watch: ESPN+ PPV
- Location: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA
- Start Time (Main Card): 10:00 PM ET (Prelims at 8:00 PM ET, Early Prelims at 6:00 PM ET)
- Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs)
- Title on the Line: UFC BMF
- See the full UFC 318 card
Fighter Profiles
Max Holloway
Max Holloway is not the same fighter who faced Poirier a few years back. He has grown, amassing an impressive record of 26-8-0. While that is still shy of Poirier’s record, Holloway has made a mark for himself when it comes to unbreakable pace and UFC-record significant strikes.
In the UFC 300 lightweight fight on April 14, 2024, Max Holloway proved his evolution both in strikes and pace. He also got himself a knockout win against Justin Gaethje, who also has an impressive record of 26 wins.
Max Holloway’s transition to lightweight full-time has also had a significant impact on his strength, pace, and agility.
Dustin Poirier
Dustin Poirier won’t go down easily, as his past performances are even more stellar than Max Holloway’s. The veteran holds UFC records for knockouts in lightweight and fan-favorite wars. On March 10, 2024, Poirier took the win in his match against Benoît Saint-Denis. He won the latter via knockout.
Max Holloway currently sits below Dustin Poirier when it comes to the number of fights won. Dustin Poirier has won 30 fights, while Max Holloway has won 26 fights.
While Max Holloway embraces the hype surrounding the fight, Dustin Poirier remains unfazed by the hype. As a veteran, Poirier would rather focus on guillotine subs and left hooks. And let’s not forget that he will take on Holloway on home turf. The home crowd’s cheers in Louisiana are certain to add an emotional edge to this encounter.
When it comes to being a threat in the ring, Poirier has a well-rounded attack structure. The veteran is experienced in submissions and power strikes and will likely bring these into the fight.
Tactical Breakdown
Holloway won’t be so easy to take down, as the fighter currently boasts a strong takedown defense of 71%. But, we won’t count so much on his get-up game, as he isn’t renowned for his wrestling or grappling escapes. We expect him to rely more on his strikes and movements to avoid being taken down or to recover quickly.
Poirier has the takedown experience on his side and holds the submission edge with his guillotine and BJJ. While he may excel early in the fight, he is more likely to fade due to his age and mileage. If that happens, then Holloway’s superior endurance will most likely give the fighter the edge he needs to win the fight.
When it comes to the psyche and momentum, Holloway is in for revenge against Poirier for the past two losses. To him, it will be a moment to regain the narrative and keep his lightweight title.
For Poirier, a fight at home is enough for mental fortitude. We also expect him to be more tucked into the fight as he looks to make the most of his last chance at capturing a title and becoming the BMF champion before retirement.
If Poirier uses the guillotine choke to push Holloway into submission, then that will be the perfect storybook ending to an adventurous career. But to pull that off, he has to find a loophole in Holloway’s takedown defense.
Betting Outlook and Odds
- Current odds: Holloway -140, Poirier +115 (via BetMGM)
- Implied probability: Holloway (58.33%), Poirier (46.51%)
Betting Corner: Our Top Bets
| Bet | Rationale | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
Holloway to Win by Decision | Holloway has the durability and volume strikes to get the scorecards screaming in an intense five-rounder. | 🔥🔥🔥 Medium -High |
Fight Over 3.5 Rounds | Poirier and Holloway are likely to lock into a tactical fight of their strength and skill differences. We don’t expect a quick finish but a fight that will last more than four rounds. Moreover, both fighters have made the stretch in their recent big fights. | 🔥🔥 Medium |
Poirier by Submission | All Poirier needs is for Holloway to shoot or get sloppy in his movements. With that, the veteran will likely jump at the opportunity to use his guillotine choke. | 🔥🔥 Low–Medium |
Holloway vs. Poirier: Who Has the Final Edge?
To Poirier, the fight is a chance to grab a title before hanging up his gloves. For Holloway, it is an opportunity to get back at Poirier for the two previous fights and also retain his BMF title. His recent form and pace have a high potential of offsetting Poirier, especially in the later rounds. However, Poirier’s experience in wars and dominance is not to be swept under the carpet.
The different approaches between the two experienced fighters bring opportunities in the method of victory prop bets. You will also find valuable odds in over-round prop bets.
Do you think this fight will be the perfect retirement gift for Poirier? Share your predictions and picks with the community in the comment section, as we’d like to hear your thoughts as well.
Our Final Prediction: Max Holloway wins via unanimous decision.
Poirier will likely put up a good fight in the early rounds. And he is less likely to catch Holloway at this stage for a choke. Holloway’s superior cardio, volume, and motivation will likely keep him in the game long enough for Poirier to edge out.
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