Miami Heat vs. Orlando Magic Prediction & Betting Picks (December 9, 2025)

The Heat are all about pace, as they work hard to burn out the opposition, while racing down the floor to get easy buckets. That’s led to the third-most points per game, the third-most fastbreak points per game, and the second-most points in the paint.

Miami is not a high-volume offense from deep. They want efficiency, and they want accuracy. They shoot 48% overall (11th) and 37.4% from long range (6th) despite not being a high-volume three-point shooting offense. They are getting the ball inside, and when they shoot a three, it’s usually one that is open.

This offense can excel with or without Herro. It did so for much of the year, and has weirdly only run into trouble since his return. A big reason for Miami’s success has been the career-year out of veteran swingman Norm Powell (25 ppg), while they’ve gotten solid production out of Bam Adebayo, Andrew Wiggins, and Jaime Jacquez as well.

Miami’s kryptonite is a team that can slow down the pace, defend the paint, and/or close out on the outside. Orlando’s been pretty good at most of that, which makes it no surprise Miami has yet to take them down this year.

Orlando is pretty dependent on their top isolation scorers, usually turning to Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero to initiate and execute offense. Both are good at penetrating defenses, but also have solid mid-range games that extend out to the three-point line.

The bad news is now two-fold. Banchero has missed a ton of time, and now Wagner is injured and won’t be able to suit up for this game. Banchero’s absence had placed a lot of pressure on Wagner, and now that responsibility will be flipped.

Luckily, Banchero isn’t totally alone. Despite a slow start with his new team, Desmond Bane has been heating up in recent weeks. His perimeter offense can feed off of Banchero’s, while two-way ace Jalen Suggs can hurt teams from long range as well.

Orlando’s offense isn’t really suited to run with Miami. However, if they slow down the pace and execute like they did in the most recent game, their more methodical offense could win out (again).

It didn’t work out as planned in the last meeting, but the Heat typically play a very fast-paced brand of basketball. They presently rank #1 in pace, but despite the amount of possessions they force on their opponents, they’re still quite efficient (2nd) on defense.

Orlando isn’t nearly as fast, ranking 21st in pace. They’re a strong defensive team, however, as they rank 5th in efficiency and also allow the 10th fewest points per game.

• Miami’s three-point shooting vs. Orlando’s perimeter defense: The Heat push the pace and get all kinds of good looks. They rely more on converting good looks than volume, but Orlando allows the fewest three-point attempts in all of basketball.
• Orlando’s penetration vs. Miami’s interior defense: The Magic are down an elite penetration scorer in Wagner, so it will be interesting to see if they can score inside as effectively. They’re also used to getting to the free-throw line at will, but could miss Wagner’s 6.8 free-throw attempts per game.
• Battle in Transition: These are two very good teams on the break. Orlando can struggle in a half-court setting, so they’re even more reliant on finishing in transition. Not having a key scorer like Wagner could hurt their chances of winning the fastbreak battle.

Both teams could be banged up for this one. Franz Wagner got hurt in Orlando’s most recent game, suffering a high-ankle sprain that is expected to keep him sidelined for 2-4 weeks.

Another big name to monitor for the Magic is Suggs. He exited Orlando’s last game with a leg issue and while he said he’s “good”, it’s unclear if he’ll face the Heat.

Keep an eye on the status of Tyler Herro as well. The star shooting guard has missed a lot of time this year and is back on the shelf. Whether he can suit up for this huge NBA Cup tourney game remains unknown.

For what it’s worth, Herro did participate in Monday’s practice. Davion Mitchell and Pelle Larson are also expected to suit up for Tuesday’s game, but Dru Smith missed Monday’s practice and may not be available.